Buy Your Lottery Ticket! (5/20/14 Lottery Night)

Post #1 » by **ICMTM** » Tue May 20, 2014 3:33 pm

I hope we get into the top three, but I really hope if we don't we stay at 7. I think we can get get a good player at 7.

SactoKingsFan · Post #2 » by **SactoKingsFan** » Tue May 20, 2014 4:40 pm

Yeah, falling to 8 or 9 would make McDermott a real possibility. Would much rather have Randle or Smart.

Post #3 » by **ICMTM** » Tue May 20, 2014 4:58 pm

Looking at the past 10 drafts and players that have gone 7-10 (or later) that have been good picks. The further back you go the easier it is to judge the player's value. The jury is out on BMac but in the case of a player like DJ Augustine we know who he is:

2013 - Michael Carter Williams (11th)
2012 - Harrison Barnes (7th), Andre Drummond (9th)
2011 - Klay Thompson (11th), Kawhi Leonard (15th)
2010 - Greg Monroe (7th), Gordon Hayward (9th) Paul George (10th)
2009 - Steph Curry (7th), Demar DeRozan (9th), Jrue Holiday (17th)
2008 - Eric Gordon (7th), Brook Lopez (10th), Roy Hibbert (17th)
2007 - Joakim Noah (9th)
2006 - Rudy Gay (8th), Rajon Rondo (21st), Paul Millsap (47th) A lot of misses 1-5.
2005 - Andrew Bynum (10th), Danny Granger (17th)
2004 - Luol Deng (7th), Andre Iguodala (9th), Jameer Nelson (20th)

In this draft the consensus top three picks (not ordered) are:

Andrew Wiggins
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid

From 7-10, and I'm pulling in several mock drafts (which will change after tonight), are the following:

Marcus Smart
Doug McDermott
Aaron Gordon
Gary Harris
Noah Vonleh
Jusuf Nurkic
Dario Saric
Tyler Ennis
James Young
Clint Capela

I tend to go with what Draftexpress.com says AFTER the lottery as they have been pretty spot on. If Smart falls to 7 I'd be happy. Otherwise I need to familiarize myself with a lot of those players. I want no part of Doug McDermott.

Kings2013 · Post #4 » by **Kings2013** » Tue May 20, 2014 5:50 pm

Suspenseful night.. A little daunting that we have a little higher % to move down than up, but I guess the pay off is greater. It seems we have consistently picked at or lower than our projected slot since I can remember, so I think lady luck has something to owe us

Big_Cat · Post #5 » by **Big_Cat** » Tue May 20, 2014 6:15 pm

ICMTM brings up a good point, but I think we really need to just accept the fact that we won't be getting any difference makers and ensure we at least get a starting player. Yes there are 1-2 all-star/starters that can be found in most drafts from 7-30...but the reality is there are only 1-2 of them...spread throughout 23 picks or so.

Let's take a look at the lotto of a few draft years (Not going beyond the lotto because it would be slightly absurd to think anyone would have drafted a Rajon Rondo/Manu Ginobili/etc. with the 7th pick. Just too far of a gap to reasonably say an organization missed out on that player). I will go back from 2003-2009, as 5 years should give a reasonable assessment of a player.

Green = All-Star
Blue = Starting Level Talent
Red = Not In League/Scrub

2003
7. Kirk Hinrich
8. TJ Ford
9. Mike Sweetney
10. Jarvis Hayes
11. Mickael Pietrus
12. Nick Collison
13. Marcus Banks
14. Luke Ridnour

2004
7. Luol Deng
8. Rafael Araujo
9. Andre Iguodala
10. Luke Jackson
11. Andris Biendrins
12. Robert Swift
13. Sebastian Telfair
14. Kris Humprhies

2005
7. Charlie Villanueva
8. Channing Frye
9. Ike Diogu
10. Andrew Bynum
11. Fran Vazquez
12. Yaroslav Korolev
13. Sean May
14. Rashad McCants

2006
7. Randy Foye
8. Rudy Gay
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Saer Sene
11. JJ Redick
12. Hilton Armstrong
13. Thabo Sefolosha
14. Ronnie Brewer

2007
7. Corey Brewer
8. Brandon Wright
9. Joakim Noah
10. Spencer Hawes
11. Acie Law
12. Thaddeous Young
13. Julian wright
14. Al Thornton

2008
7. Eric Gordon
8. Joe Alexander
9. DJ Augstin
10. Brook Lopez
11. Jerryd Bayless
12. Jason Thompson
13. Brandon Rush
14. Anthony Randolph

2009
7. Steph Curry
8. Jordan Hill
9. DeMar DeRozan
10. Brandon Jennings
11. Terrence Williams
12. Gerald Henderson
13. Tyler Hansbrough
14. Earl Clark

So what do we have?
2003 - 0 Allstars, 3 Starting Level Talent, 2 Bench Role Players, 3 Scrubs/Not in League
2004 - 2 Allstars, 1 Starting Level Talent, 2 Bench Role Players, 3 Scrubs/Not in League
2005 - 1 Allstars, 0 Starting Level Talent, 2 Bench Role Players, 5 Scrubs/Not in League
2006 - 0 Allstars, 4 Starting Level Talent, 1 Bench Role Players, 3 Scrubs/Not in League
2007 - 1 Allstars, 2 Starting Level Talent, 1 Bench Role Players, 4 Scrubs/Not in League
2008 - 1 Allstars, 2 Starting Level Talent, 2 Bench Role Players, 3 Scrubs/Not in League
2009 - 2 Allstars, 1 Starting Level Talent, 4 Bench Role Players, 1 Scrubs/Not in League

Post #6 » by **ICMTM** » Tue May 20, 2014 7:13 pm

Who's our representative tonight?

SacKingZZZ · Post #7 » by **SacKingZZZ** » Tue May 20, 2014 7:52 pm

The Kings are going to get into the top 3. The only question now is who the Kings want out of Embiid, Parker, or Wiggens.

Post #8 » by **ICMTM** » Tue May 20, 2014 8:01 pm

Big_Cat wrote:ICMTM brings up a good point, but I think we really need to just accept the fact that we won't be getting any difference makers and ensure we at least get a starting player. Yes there are 1-2 all-star/starters that can be found in most drafts from 7-30...but the reality is there are only 1-2 of them...spread throughout 23 picks or so.

I agree with that to an extent. If Smart falls to 7 I think we get a guy we need. In 2003 Josh Howard went 20 and he had a couple very good years as a pro before injuries got to him.

Big_Cat · Post #9 » by **Big_Cat** » Tue May 20, 2014 9:31 pm

ICMTM wrote:
Big_Cat wrote:ICMTM brings up a good point, but I think we really need to just accept the fact that we won't be getting any difference makers and ensure we at least get a starting player. Yes there are 1-2 all-star/starters that can be found in most drafts from 7-30...but the reality is there are only 1-2 of them...spread throughout 23 picks or so.

I agree with that to an extent. If Smart falls to 7 I think we get a guy we need. In 2003 Josh Howard went 20 and he had a couple very good years as a pro before injuries got to him.

I also think Smart is one of the guys who will be a difference maker, so I would obviously want him if he fell.

But my point is, starting around #7, the majority of the time all of the true difference makers have already been scouted and drafted. It may be wise to accept this and instead of scouting/searching for the next all-star, we instead divert our attention and attempt to scout a player who can be a starter/bench-role player.

Post #10 » by **Wolfay** » Tue May 20, 2014 10:28 pm

ICMTM wrote:Who's our representative tonight?

I believe it's Vivek's daughter, Anjali. She looks like good luck to me.

SacKingZZZ · Post #11 » by **SacKingZZZ** » Tue May 20, 2014 10:50 pm

Big_Cat wrote:
ICMTM wrote:
Big_Cat wrote:ICMTM brings up a good point, but I think we really need to just accept the fact that we won't be getting any difference makers and ensure we at least get a starting player. Yes there are 1-2 all-star/starters that can be found in most drafts from 7-30...but the reality is there are only 1-2 of them...spread throughout 23 picks or so.

I agree with that to an extent. If Smart falls to 7 I think we get a guy we need. In 2003 Josh Howard went 20 and he had a couple very good years as a pro before injuries got to him.

I also think Smart is one of the guys who will be a difference maker, so I would obviously want him if he fell.

But my point is, starting around #7, the majority of the time all of the true difference makers have already been scouted and drafted. It may be wise to accept this and instead of scouting/searching for the next all-star, we instead divert our attention and attempt to scout a player who can be a starter/bench-role player.

I totally agree. This team is too far along to start bringing in guys that have no hope in cracking the rotation because they aren't what you need. They'll just sit and rot on the bench and eventually, if they are a hidden gem, they'll just move on and help another team down the road all thanks to the Kings developing them in practice on the Kings watch. If you want to do that with late firsts and/or 2nd rounders cool, but this high in a draft you should be able to find legit NBA talent who can perform with some guarantee factor involved or move down while getting what you need and also hopefully better positioning yourself in another area of roster management.

blind prophet · Post #12 » by **blind prophet** » Tue May 20, 2014 11:59 pm

SmellingColors · Post #13 » by **SmellingColors** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:20 am

**** that.

Big_Cat · Post #14 » by **Big_Cat** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:20 am

8th pick. YAaaaaaaaaaay

SmellingColors · Post #15 » by **SmellingColors** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:21 am

i hate the cavs.

Kings2013 · Post #16 » by **Kings2013** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:22 am

Don't know why I get my hopes up... It is the same or worse in terms of what we are projected by record every year

blind prophet · Post #17 » by **blind prophet** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:22 am

What's up with the Cavs every year bs.

Kings2013 · Post #18 » by **Kings2013** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:22 am

Wolfay wrote:
ICMTM wrote:Who's our representative tonight?

I believe it's Vivek's daughter, Anjali. She looks like good luck to me.

She didn't look happy after we were called 8

SacKingZZZ · Post #19 » by **SacKingZZZ** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:23 am

Damn. So...guess this means the Kings should have won a few more meaningless games then huh?

This blows, unless somebody falls the Kings are one spot out of a 7 player draft. Not good. Time to trade down and out IMO. Hopefully you can move JT in the process.

Big_Cat · Post #20 » by **Big_Cat** » Wed May 21, 2014 12:23 am

Trade the pick along with Carl Landry for cap space.

Odds are whoever we draft won't even be in the league 4-5 years from now or will just be a bench/role player. We can improve our team by potentially being able to sign someone in 2015 or 2016.