Draft Watch 2018

[jazanetti]

My draft take:

#1: If Doncic is there you take him. Don't think about it. Hell, don't even walk the card to the commish. RUN with it. Doncic is the prototypical player for the modern NBA: he has a high basketball IQ, he's a shot creator, he has an outside shot, and he's big enough to switch on defense. The IQ alone makes his floor extremely high. His size at just 19 also means that with some time in the weight room he could turn into a legit small ball 4.

#2: Don't even think about picking Bamba. I seriously don't understand the appeal. Did you all not see how useless Gobert is against top flight offensive teams. Guys like that--even if they're DPOY type players--get run off the floor. So basically you want to pick a guy who HOPES to become that good one day and, chances are, if he does his value will be far less than Gobert's is today? Really?

#3: Discounting Ayton for a moment, I can see the value in trading down for JJJ (elite switchability on defense and can already AND has an evolving and untapped offensive game), MPJ (elite shooter/shot creator at a position of need along with the size and length to switch on defense), and Bagley (shot creation and defense as a small ball center). That said, I think they all come with some very, VERY big risks:
a) We call JJJ an elite defender, but his high foul rate, low rebound rate, good but not great wingspan, and low steal rate are a bit suspect. Consider that Draymond Green played center for Izzo (compared to the more perimeter oriented JJJ) and averaged between 50% and 100% more steals/40 than JJJ did. Steals are about defensive awareness. If JJJ wasn't getting them at a high rate that's a bit of a red flag (generally).
b) MPJ doesn't have the elite length of a Durant and there's no clear evidence that he's good at creating for others nor that he's a legit good defender. You're basically picking him on the back of being a/the top high school player last year.
c) Bagley's defensive awareness is super questionable. I could see him turning into a Blake Griffin type of player where he'll never be considered awful, but his limitations make him the 3rd banana on good team

#4: Back to Ayton. I think Ayton falling to #2 is super interesting for a bunch of reasons--both good and bad. On the one hand he has a lot of red flags on the defensive end AND the league is going against centers/bigs in general. However, there is something to be said about zigging when everyone else is zagging. This isn't to say the Kings should automatically draft him and move to an offense where they dump the ball down into the post like it's 1988 again. What I'm saying is that if Ayton is the generational center talent that people believe he is--a combination of size and agility we haven't seen in decades--then it gives you the opportunity to go against the grain and counting the wing happy, switch happy offenses that are so prevalent right now.

I was reading TheStepien the other day and the author made an interesting point: essentially he said he completely missed on evaluating Dragan Bender because, while Bender is a good outside shooter, he doesn't have the post game or physicality to take advantage of switches. That is, teams can put smaller players on him and never worry about the Suns taking advantage of it. This is true for most teams. And when teams do have a real big man in the game teams can isolate and take advantage. But Ayton could, in theory, be agile enough to switch on defense as well as take advantage of switches on offense (and hit the outside shot to pull defenders away from the rim).

The point is, in THEORY, Ayton gives you what's most liked about the modern+ideal 3/4 hybrid (outside shooting, shot creation, switching on defense) and adds the ability to punish switches. That could (again, in theory) change how teams defend the offense.

That said, my big worry on Ayton is I'm not sold on his basketball IQ and if he doesn't have that he's really capped as far as how he helps a team win.


So at the end of the day my hope is that the Suns take him and we take Doncic.

Utah without Gobert is mid lottery team. With Rudy they reached 2nd round. His influence is really significant. And there was only one team (Cavs with Lebron) without top team defense or top defensive players in roster who reached second round. Bamba can bring you that level of D rather soon and also has tools to become attacking threat. Yes he is raw, but looks most like a unicorn.

[sacking123]

I’m still sticking with Doncic/Bagley/Ayton.
Anyone worried about Doncic and whether his game will translate shouldn’t worry at all.
I have thought about this for the last couple of years and sat back and viewed a lot of opinions regarding Euro players from he US.
The thing that many from the US can’t see IMO is these players’ Americanism.
Now let me explain, players like Bogdan, KP and certainly Doncic is one as well is that they are confident and strong on the court along with showing a great desire to not only play in the US, but be one of the best players in the game.
The Euro players that don’t turn out don’t have that arrogance, confidence or desire.
Doncic has it, his Americanism is off the charts and he should be the 1st pick, hopefully Vlade keeps this line if we might pass on him to keep Phoenix away.

[BoogieTime]

seriously, what does this board have with Bagley? a guy with no real position in modern NBA with no defense and no shot, c'mon. other than Simmons he can not handle and pass the ball above average, i don't see there a good fit in an NBA offense. it' not all about athleticism. we have a #2 pick und some of you want to pick a player with such huge concerns, i really don't get it

? He easily has the quickness to play 4, whether he can grow to a 5, many think so. No shot shooting close to .40 % from 3 at 18 and very good floor efficiency? He can handle for a big.

[kingjawn100]

From ESPN article this morning...

Jonathan Givony: “Barring a trade, I'd say Doncic being drafted in the top three is no better than 50-50. I've felt an increasing disparity the past few months between the public's bullish perception of Doncic -- which we share -- and what NBA executives say privately. While I believe they are overthinking things, the skepticism is a lot more prevalent than expected. You would think a guy like Doncic, who has played in as many big games as any teenage prospect in recent memory, would be relatively immune to these types of ups and downs in his evaluation process, but it seems that's not the case.

I'm not ready to say he is certain to drop outside of the top three, but I do think that if the draft were tonight, I wouldn't have him in that range. Doncic and his camp could have some influence on where he lands if they choose to use his contractual status with Real Madrid as leverage (explained below), but the reality at the moment is that the teams in the top three might all pass on him anyway. The fact that Sacramento (No. 2), Atlanta (No. 3) and Memphis (No. 4) all declined to send a single person from the U.S. to watch the Euroleague Final Four tells me something about their interest level.

The Kings were initially supposed to have GM Vlade Divac in Belgrade, according to a Sacramento front-office executive at the combine, but Divac never made it, instead electing to attend his son's college graduation in California. People I trust say the Kings' front office has been expressing significant skepticism about Doncic's NBA prospects all year in private conversations, long before they moved up in the draft. At this stage, I think a lot of NBA teams have already made up their minds about Doncic, and it isn't quite as flattering as we initially thought.“

[kalenclayton]

From ESPN article this morning...

Jonathan Givony: “Barring a trade, I'd say Doncic being drafted in the top three is no better than 50-50. I've felt an increasing disparity the past few months between the public's bullish perception of Doncic -- which we share -- and what NBA executives say privately. While I believe they are overthinking things, the skepticism is a lot more prevalent than expected. You would think a guy like Doncic, who has played in as many big games as any teenage prospect in recent memory, would be relatively immune to these types of ups and downs in his evaluation process, but it seems that's not the case.

I'm not ready to say he is certain to drop outside of the top three, but I do think that if the draft were tonight, I wouldn't have him in that range. Doncic and his camp could have some influence on where he lands if they choose to use his contractual status with Real Madrid as leverage (explained below), but the reality at the moment is that the teams in the top three might all pass on him anyway. The fact that Sacramento (No. 2), Atlanta (No. 3) and Memphis (No. 4) all declined to send a single person from the U.S. to watch the Euroleague Final Four tells me something about their interest level.

The Kings were initially supposed to have GM Vlade Divac in Belgrade, according to a Sacramento front-office executive at the combine, but Divac never made it, instead electing to attend his son's college graduation in California. People I trust say the Kings' front office has been expressing significant skepticism about Doncic's NBA prospects all year in private conversations, long before they moved up in the draft. At this stage, I think a lot of NBA teams have already made up their minds about Doncic, and it isn't quite as flattering as we initially thought.“

Or maybe it was Bogdan who went disguised as a fan. He was there. Vlade loves Bogi. If Bogi loves Doncic, then Vlade loves Doncic. Logic.

[Archx]

From ESPN article this morning...

Jonathan Givony: “Barring a trade, I'd say Doncic being drafted in the top three is no better than 50-50. I've felt an increasing disparity the past few months between the public's bullish perception of Doncic -- which we share -- and what NBA executives say privately. While I believe they are overthinking things, the skepticism is a lot more prevalent than expected. You would think a guy like Doncic, who has played in as many big games as any teenage prospect in recent memory, would be relatively immune to these types of ups and downs in his evaluation process, but it seems that's not the case.

I'm not ready to say he is certain to drop outside of the top three, but I do think that if the draft were tonight, I wouldn't have him in that range. Doncic and his camp could have some influence on where he lands if they choose to use his contractual status with Real Madrid as leverage (explained below), but the reality at the moment is that the teams in the top three might all pass on him anyway. The fact that Sacramento (No. 2), Atlanta (No. 3) and Memphis (No. 4) all declined to send a single person from the U.S. to watch the Euroleague Final Four tells me something about their interest level.

The Kings were initially supposed to have GM Vlade Divac in Belgrade, according to a Sacramento front-office executive at the combine, but Divac never made it, instead electing to attend his son's college graduation in California. People I trust say the Kings' front office has been expressing significant skepticism about Doncic's NBA prospects all year in private conversations, long before they moved up in the draft. At this stage, I think a lot of NBA teams have already made up their minds about Doncic, and it isn't quite as flattering as we initially thought.“

But you need to copy a whole article not a fraction of the story to make sense. They concluded that teams are nitpicking heavily and forgeting that this is still a 19yo kid who is developing his true potential and not some 30yo grown up player.

Plus Vlade was in Belgrade, local papers reported that and this reporter apparently thinks he was not.

[BoogieTime]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

[Archx]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

Yea there is no chance Kings pass on Doncic. I mean they had 2 euros in their lineup when they almost won a championship with Peja and Vlade. And now they are developing another one Bogdanovic. So they know and they trust their process but it could get complicated if they figure out that they actually need a true PF right from the start which could change their opinion on Doncic. He is more of a SF/PG type of player. I don't see him playing SG, he was never that guy not even when he played with Dragic on our national team. He played SF with a playmaker role. He ran PNR with bigs to perfection even when Dragic was on the floor.

[madskillz8]

The article of J. Givony in short: Doncic may be top 3, may be not. What ever happens in draft day, he could say "i told you so". They don't even have to manipulate "insider" mock drafts to make them look more accurate years later. ( https://deadspin.com/espns-chad-ford-has-been-retroactively-editing-draft-bo-1681631642 )

Well, you have like 50+ hours of game tape of Doncic against pro-competition just in last 12 months and he was on the radar of NBA scouts during that period more than anyone. Still I don't rely on the report that SAC, ATL and MEM did not send any person to the event, given that the author and his Kings executive source did not even aware of the fact that Vlade is eventually in Belgrade at that time.

[kingjawn100]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

Unless they want teams to trade up to 2 for Porter, who we are *supposedly* heavily interested in.

Maybe Vlade has finally learned how to play the game...or maybe he's at least letting the right people handle these things. Maybe.

[SacKingZZZ]

seriously, what does this board have with Bagley? a guy with no real position in modern NBA with no defense and no shot, c'mon. other than Simmons he can not handle and pass the ball above average, i don't see there a good fit in an NBA offense. it' not all about athleticism. we have a #2 pick und some of you want to pick a player with such huge concerns, i really don't get it

Heres my thing about Bagley, he's a PF that will be able to play center in smaller lineups so he does have some versatility. He's the type of PF that will survive, you know why? Because he won't be afraid to post up smaller players and make them pay. I also think he'll greatly improve as a passer and will become acceptable defensively. He's got the game now. Players with elite ball control, even if they are single handed for the most part, tend to do very well offensively.

[SacKingZZZ]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

Yea there is no chance Kings pass on Doncic. I mean they had 2 euros in their lineup when they almost won a championship with Peja and Vlade. And now they are developing another one Bogdanovic. So they know and they trust their process but it could get complicated if they figure out that they actually need a true PF right from the start which could change their opinion on Doncic. He is more of a SF/PG type of player. I don't see him playing SG, he was never that guy not even when he played with Dragic on our national team. He played SF with a playmaker role. He ran PNR with bigs to perfection even when Dragic was on the floor.

Perhaps they see Bogdanovich and Doncic getting in eachothers way. It was a big enough struggle to get Fox, Bogdan, and Buddy enough pick and roll opportunities under Joerger, who by his own accord avoided pick and roll in favor of working on other sets because it would be too easy or something like that. In hindsight I do see his point but it's clear this is a pick and roll team but I digress. As madskillz8 stated there is so much tape and proof about Doncic and what he is as a prospect that I don't know why you'd need to scout him anyway. He's a known commodity at this point which in a draft probably does have a negative effect since the ceiling appears to be lower as a result. I'd still take him and run at this point because he's a lock to fit the league right now but I can't argue his upside versus players like Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, or maybe even Porter Jr.

[Archx]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

Yea there is no chance Kings pass on Doncic. I mean they had 2 euros in their lineup when they almost won a championship with Peja and Vlade. And now they are developing another one Bogdanovic. So they know and they trust their process but it could get complicated if they figure out that they actually need a true PF right from the start which could change their opinion on Doncic. He is more of a SF/PG type of player. I don't see him playing SG, he was never that guy not even when he played with Dragic on our national team. He played SF with a playmaker role. He ran PNR with bigs to perfection even when Dragic was on the floor.

Perhaps they see Bogdanovich and Doncic getting in eachothers way. It was a big enough struggle to get Fox, Bogdan, and Buddy enough pick and roll opportunities under Joerger, who by his own accord avoided pick and roll in favor of working on other sets because it would be too easy or something like that. In hindsight I do see his point but it's clear this is a pick and roll team but I digress. As madskillz8 stated there is so much tape and proof about Doncic and what he is as a prospect that I don't know why you'd need to scout him anyway. He's a known commodity at this point which in a draft probably does have a negative effect since the ceiling appears to be lower as a result. I'd still take him and run at this point because he's a lock to fit the league right now but I can't argue his upside versus players like Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, or maybe even Porter Jr.

Yup, you could be right and it's also too early to tell and i feel like in 3 weeks when we get closer to the draft we will know even less lol ... Something tells me this draft will be insane.

[City of Trees]

Vlade gonna trade down and still draft Luka

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app

[kingjawn100]

I'll say this...if we can find through free agency a shot-blocking, outside-shooting center then Bagley is the perfect draft pick for us. Similar to thunder-Ibaka. Those guys just aren't a dime a dozen though.

[BoogieTime]

I’ve stated my possible theory on why we may feign disinterest in Luka.. but, even if the team isn’t interested doesn’t that appear to lower Doncic’s value for a trade down, that your not interested? Makes my theory seem more probable to me personally

Yea there is no chance Kings pass on Doncic. I mean they had 2 euros in their lineup when they almost won a championship with Peja and Vlade. And now they are developing another one Bogdanovic. So they know and they trust their process but it could get complicated if they figure out that they actually need a true PF right from the start which could change their opinion on Doncic. He is more of a SF/PG type of player. I don't see him playing SG, he was never that guy not even when he played with Dragic on our national team. He played SF with a playmaker role. He ran PNR with bigs to perfection even when Dragic was on the floor.

Perhaps they see Bogdanovich and Doncic getting in eachothers way. It was a big enough struggle to get Fox, Bogdan, and Buddy enough pick and roll opportunities under Joerger, who by his own accord avoided pick and roll in favor of working on other sets because it would be too easy or something like that. In hindsight I do see his point but it's clear this is a pick and roll team but I digress. As madskillz8 stated there is so much tape and proof about Doncic and what he is as a prospect that I don't know why you'd need to scout him anyway. He's a known commodity at this point which in a draft probably does have a negative effect since the ceiling appears to be lower as a result. I'd still take him and run at this point because he's a lock to fit the league right now but I can't argue his upside versus players like Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, or maybe even Porter Jr.

I think if this is true that’s the issue. It’s a win now situation with Vlade/Joerger, and there would be a lot of usage with Fox, Bogdan, Buddy, Doncic etc. I have to remember for them it’s about getting better now

I can see how Luka has a lower floor too than a couple others, because if that athleticism doesn’t translate on O (breaking his man at NBA level) or D, as said, it’s a liability stopping the ball.. I believe he’s talented enough that that’s minimal though

I still think he’s a top two prospect that I want, but at this point I have Bagley

[kingjawn100]

Anyone have issues with MPJ and his raw vegan diet? I'm no expert at all but being that he's underdeveloped and needs to put on weight/muscle won't that be hard with him on that sort of diet? Especially if we're talking about him playing small ball center.

[SacKingZZZ]

Vlade gonna trade down and still draft Luka

Sent from my LG-H872 using RealGM mobile app

Now that would make up for drafting Papa G and at least half of the Cuz trade right there.

[SacKingZZZ]

Yea there is no chance Kings pass on Doncic. I mean they had 2 euros in their lineup when they almost won a championship with Peja and Vlade. And now they are developing another one Bogdanovic. So they know and they trust their process but it could get complicated if they figure out that they actually need a true PF right from the start which could change their opinion on Doncic. He is more of a SF/PG type of player. I don't see him playing SG, he was never that guy not even when he played with Dragic on our national team. He played SF with a playmaker role. He ran PNR with bigs to perfection even when Dragic was on the floor.

Perhaps they see Bogdanovich and Doncic getting in eachothers way. It was a big enough struggle to get Fox, Bogdan, and Buddy enough pick and roll opportunities under Joerger, who by his own accord avoided pick and roll in favor of working on other sets because it would be too easy or something like that. In hindsight I do see his point but it's clear this is a pick and roll team but I digress. As madskillz8 stated there is so much tape and proof about Doncic and what he is as a prospect that I don't know why you'd need to scout him anyway. He's a known commodity at this point which in a draft probably does have a negative effect since the ceiling appears to be lower as a result. I'd still take him and run at this point because he's a lock to fit the league right now but I can't argue his upside versus players like Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, or maybe even Porter Jr.

I think if this is true that’s the issue. It’s a win now situation with Vlade/Joerger, and there would be a lot of usage with Fox, Bogdan, Buddy, Doncic etc. I have to remember for them it’s about getting better now

I can see how Luka has a lower floor too than a couple others, because if that athleticism doesn’t translate on O (breaking his man at NBA level) or D, as said, it’s a liability stopping the ball.. I believe he’s talented enough that that’s minimal though

I still think he’s a top two prospect that I want, but at this point I have Bagley

I look at Fox, Bogdanovic, Hield, Doncic, and Willie and I see modern NBA ball to a T if they work it right. If Vivek has any desires to keep following on the path of Warriors part 2 that team is his best bet. I still think the run and gun era Celtics is the mold to follow and that team was in a lot of ways what the league is about now, only back then.

As for universal fit, I do think Bagley is a slide right in and get to work type that fits the coach better.

[codydaze]

Anyone have issues with MPJ and his raw vegan diet? I'm no expert at all but being that he's underdeveloped and needs to put on weight/muscle won't that be hard with him on that sort of diet? Especially if we're talking about him playing small ball center.

I'm not saying this in a negative way, but you have some of the strangest qualms on this board. Plenty of guys in the NBA have vegan diets including Marc Gasol. This would not be an issue in the slightest, if anything it's better for his health being on a vegan diet.