Analyzing The Numbers For Comparisons and Projections of Our Youth

[codydaze]

I got really bored at work and decided I would dig into the rabbit hole that is basketball-reference and see if I could analyze where our young guys are at this point in their career and who they've been most similar to as well as coming up with a ceiling/floor for each. This is based completely off their numbers, primarily Per36 and advanced, so they aren't perfect but the results lined up actually a lot better than I initially thought they might.

To get the data, I did a season finder to find who had the most similar statiscal year as our players in their respective year (comparing just rookie season, 2nd seasons, etc. individually). After getting a list of players from that, I did a player comparison with those on the list and our own player through however many seasons they've played.

Using WCS as an example, I compared his rookie numbers to all of the rookie season numbers of bigs, his 2nd season numbers to all of the 2nd season numbers of bigs and so on. After getting a list of players (I usually picked about 7-8) with comparable numbers, I would compare those players' cumulative stats through the their first three seasons with those of Willie's career numbers so far. Comparing those, I took the player that had the most similar numbers and then picked two guys I thought were a reasonable ceiling and floor. Here are the results:

De'Aaron Fox
Most Similar: Bobby Jackson
Ceiling: Mike Conley
Floor: Smush Parker

Buddy Hield
Most Similar: Allan Houston
Ceiling: Michael Redd
Floor: Gary Neal

Willie Cauley Stein
Most Similar: Sam Perkins
Ceiling: Joakim Noah
Floor: Jerrod Mustaf

Skal Labissiere
Most Similar: Drew Gooden
Ceiling: Dave Greenwood
Floor: Michael Doleac

Bogdan Bogdanovic
Most Similar: Erick Strickland
Ceiling: Rudy Fernandez
Floor: Terence Stansbury

Frank Mason
Most Similar: Rodney Stuckey
Ceiling: Jameer Nelson
Floor: Sam Vincent

Malachi Richardson
Most Similar: Billy Thomas
Ceiling: Jeremy Richardson
Floor: Doug Lee

I really like most of these projections and comparisons though Bogdan had some weird results but I actually like the Rudy Fernandez comp. Discuss?

[blind prophet]

For Bogdan Bogdanovic I'd put his ceiling at Manu.

Interesting list overall. Did you do anything for Jackson or Papa?

[Sacramento_King]

Interesting list. Even if they all hit their ceilings based on projections and data, we'd be a pretty sad team.

[codydaze]

For Bogdan Bogdanovic I'd put his ceiling at Manu.

Interesting list overall. Did you do anything for Jackson or Papa?

I couldn't get very reliable data for either of those guys but Papa had some interesting names pop up for similarities. Eric Montross, Vlade Divac, Will Perdue and Bill Wennington all come up as similar.

[SacKingZZZ]

It's really hard to judge any of these players statistically considering the randomness associated with their roles so in the end I don't think it says much but it is interesting chat fodder nonetheless.

[SacKingZZZ]

Interesting list. Even if they all hit their ceilings based on projections and data, we'd be a pretty sad team.

Heres the thing, I think what those numbers do show is the damage being done to their development the way they are being used. None are in the terrible zone, but not a single one is standing out either.

[codydaze]

It's really hard to judge any of these players statistically considering the randomness associated with their roles so in the end I don't think it says much but it is interesting chat fodder nonetheless.

No doubt that inconsistent roles will affect production but that's why I opted for per minute production and advanced stat measures to try and get more of an accurate analysis. Not perfect but I think there's some decent discussions starters. I thought the Fox, Mason, Willie and Buddy comps were all very interesting.

[Sacramento_King]

Interesting list. Even if they all hit their ceilings based on projections and data, we'd be a pretty sad team.

Heres the thing, I think what those numbers do show is the damage being done to their development the way they are being used. None are in the terrible zone, but not a single one is standing out either.

I get what you are saying but I think the players may be more aware of the randomness then we are. I heard Coach on KHTK and they talked rotations and he stated that sometimes he wants to test players in certain matchups (I was thinking the Fox vs Wall matchup early in season) and mentioned Buddy specifically about his uneven defensive effort one game so he played really limited minutes or possibly not at all but my memory escapes me and since then has put forth more effort on both sides of ball. Basically this might be discussed with players moreso then released to general public.