rpa wrote:RipPizzaGuy wrote:Just because you are the #1 recruit out of HS, doesn't mean jack when it comes to the draft. Morant wasn't in the top 100, Lamelo Ball was #21, Trae Young was #23. But I remember Harrison Barnes was #1, Marvin Bagley was #1, Harry Giles was #1, Skal was #2.
Previous 16 #1 rated RSCI prospects coming out of HS:
Chet, Cade, Wiseman, Barrett, Bagley, Josh Jackson, Ben Simmons, Mudiay, Wiggins, Noel, Anthony Davis, Barnes, Favors, Brandon Jennings, Mayo, Oden
So pretty miss overall. It looks better if you make the (maybe unfair) assumption that Oden and Noel end up far better if they don't get injured. Few things stick out to me here:
a) While not conclusive the older players tended to have a lower success rate. Jennings, Simmons, Barnes, Mayo, and Jackson were all just about 20 at draft time. You could make an argument that Simmons is the only really good one because of his physical traits being elite and not just good like the rest.
b) Steer clear of guards. Mayo, Jennings, Wiggins, Mudiay, Jackson, and Barrett. Not a single standout in the NBA.