Final 10 Game Standings Watch

[codydaze]

72 games have been played with only 10 remaining and some very pivotal organizational consequences hanging in the balance. The 6-8 seeds are essentially out the question at this point and we are fighting to maintain home court advantage in the 9/10 Play-In Game. It is currently a three team race for who will battle it out in the 9/10 Play-In with each team having very compelling reasons as to why they should want to be there.

Your very own, Sacramento Kings:

The Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a move that had been heavily foreshadowed since at least last summer and while there was a split in the fanbase as to whether the team should try to continue building around Domantas Sabonis and remain competitive or to begin a teardown and look ahead to the future, trading for Zach Lavine and less-than-premium first round picks signaled that the organization wanted to remain competitive and fight for the playoffs. The team is 10-12 since deadline day so the results have been less than ideal as we continue to try and hold on to a play-in berth.

The Phoenix Suns:

After a trip to the NBA Finals in 2021, the Suns followed with a 64 win season and disappointing second round loss to the Dallas Mavericks. The organization then decided to go all in and have since traded some key role players to form a Big Three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. The results have been less than ideal with them failing to win 50 games in any season since the 64 win campaign. New owner, Matt Ishiba, is adamant that the organization wants to remain competitive and ultimately win championship but some serious questions will need to be answered if they fail to even clinch a spot in the Play-In.

The Dallas Mavericks:

While this season has been an unlucky one for Dallas in terms of injuries, the elephant in the room is that they just traded Luka Doncic less than a year after he led them to the NBA Finals. As with the Kings, the move was not one that signaled a change in direction towards a rebuild but one to remain competitive as they brought in Anthony Davis and only one first round pick. While they might be able to point towards losing Kyrie Irving to an ACL tear and not having key guys like PJ Washington, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford (plus Luka for an extended period of time while he was still there) for large chunks of the season as to why the season hasn't ended very well, the microscope is now on the team to prove that trading Luka was not a colossal mistake.

The Current Situation:

9. Sacramento Kings (35-37)
10. Phoenix Suns (35-37)
--
11. Dallas Mavericks (35-38)

Kings currently hold homecourt advantage for the 9/10 Game and have tiebreakers over both the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. There is one more game between Sacramento and Phoenix which can change things but a Sacramento win would secure the tiebreaker for good. Phoenix holds the tiebreaker over Dallas so the Mavericks would need to finish with a better record than both teams to secure a spot.

Kings have a "softer" stretch of 5 games coming up that include Portland, Charlotte and Washington but we did lose to Charlotte already this year so you never really know. How will the Kings respond to a 2-8 record over their last 10 games? The record will certainly need to be better than that in the final 10 if we want to make a Play-In appearance.

[OxAndFox]

Napkin math has the next game against Portland as a win or you don't make the play in IMO. It could implode.
If AD is back for the Mavs then I can see the below.

9. Dallas 38-44 (3-6)
10. Portland 38-44 (6-3)
11. Phoenix 37-45 (2-8)
12. Sacramento 37-45 (2-8)
* Phoenix wins the tie breaker with more division wins.
* Dallas wins tie breaker over Portland.

And to be honest I could see the Kings finishing with a flurry of wins and if Phoenix are out of it in the last game it might just get the W for the Kings and something like a 5-5 or a 6-4 might be more achievable which would give them a home play in.
It probably just goes to show how much of a Jekyll & Hyde team this is.

[codydaze]

Napkin math has the next game against Portland as a win or you don't make the play in IMO. It could implode.
If AD is back for the Mavs then I can see the below.

9. Dallas 38-44 (3-6)
10. Portland 38-44 (6-3)
11. Phoenix 37-45 (2-8)
12. Sacramento 37-45 (2-8)
* Phoenix wins the tie breaker with more division wins.
* Dallas wins tie breaker over Portland.

And to be honest I could see the Kings finishing with a flurry of wins and if Phoenix are out of it in the last game it might just get the W for the Kings and something like a 5-5 or a 6-4 might be more achievable which would give them a home play in.
It probably just goes to show how much of a Jekyll & Hyde team this is.

I think this next 5 game stretch you need to go 4-1. Portland, Orlando, Indiana, Charlotte and Washington. I think 4-1 is doable but any less and missing the play in is a legitimate threat.

[BoogieTime]

lose out and keep the pick, hopefully the dumb org holds players out

[BoogieTime]

It’s in grasp with how Dallas has been playing

Tonight was the night I saw a dead team without soul. That needs coaching staff and lineup changes that won’t happen this year

[kevin44]

The Suns will not make the play in unless we tank the rest of our games. BoogieTime this team is in a tough spot. New coach, new gm and big roster changes needed. If Sabonis wants to stay then build around him but if he wants out then they will have to start over.

[OxAndFox]

The Suns will not make the play in unless we tank the rest of our games. BoogieTime this team is in a tough spot. New coach, new gm and big roster changes needed. If Sabonis wants to stay then build around him but if he wants out then they will have to start over.

I'm fully expecting a Sabonis trade request. He isn't stupid. He see's what the org is going for.

[kevin44]

I hope your wrong Ox. If Sabonis leaves we won't see the playoffs for years.

[BoogieTime]

the suns aren't going to allow it....

[codydaze]

The Current Situation:

9. Dallas Mavericks (37-38)
10. Sacramento Kings (36-38)
--
11. Phoenix Suns (35-40)

Dallas has gone 2-0 since the original post, Kings have split at 1-1 and Phoenix has gone 0-3. Kevin Durant went down with an ankle sprain in last night's game and could possibly be done for the rest of the season. It's getting close to officially counting them out and battling it out with Dallas for home court in the first play-in game. We do own the tiebreaker with them if it comes to it but it will be a tight race.

[LightTheBeam]

I have us finishing 13th and losing the pick. My biggest hope is Chicago can go on a crazy run to finish out the season. And looking at their schedule - it wouldn't be crazy for them to win 6 of last 8 and finish with 39 wins.

7 games left for Mavericks, and sounds they are getting both centers back this week. 37-38
Brooklyn
ATL
LAC
LAC
LAL
TOR
MEM

I'd put them at 3-4 wins to close out the season. 40 to 41 wins.

Kings have 8 left 36-38
IND
WASH
CHA
CLE
DET
DEN
LAC
PHX

I have us between 2-3 wins left. so likely 38-39 wins.

PHX have 7 left 35-40
MIL
BOS
NY
GS
OKC
SA
SAC

I have them getting 1-2 wins ROS especially with Durant out. 36-37 wins.

This is worst case scenario ahead. We get 10th seed on road vs a healthy (minus Kyrie) Mavs. and more than likely finish 13th and lose the pick.

[LightTheBeam]

The Suns will not make the play in unless we tank the rest of our games. BoogieTime this team is in a tough spot. New coach, new gm and big roster changes needed. If Sabonis wants to stay then build around him but if he wants out then they will have to start over.

I'm fully expecting a Sabonis trade request. He isn't stupid. He see's what the org is going for.

Yup. We can either jump in front of it and hope to maximize the value now, or get caught off guard next deadline (Fox) and trade him for 50 cents on the dollar.

[OxAndFox]

I feel like the Blazers are now out of it, but are they really?

They might just win out from here in.
@ Hawks
@ Raptors
@ Bulls
Spurs
Jazz

Then the last 2 against GSW and Lakers.
I feel at this stage the Lakers might be done seed wise by the last game, but who knows.
The GSW game might be the big one for them. The end of the road trip will be huge and they're in a funk, but hey, if they go 6-1 that gets them in IMO.

[codydaze]

I have us finishing with 40 wins and don't think Phoenix or Portland has any chance of reaching that.

[BoogieTime]

The suns remaining schedule... they were going to lose the Durant - less games anyways.. still need us to lose these road games against bad opposition

[BoogieTime]

There probably went the pick with tonight’s win

This is really worst case scenario. Team looking like it will barely lose its pick while looking otherwise dead in the water for the playins with no juice

At least we will get some post season ball though, I will hope for the best

[codydaze]

The Current Situation:

9. Sacramento Kings (38-40)
10. Dallas Mavericks (38-41)
--
11. Phoenix Suns (35-43)

Kings split again this week to go 2-2, Dallas went 1-3 for the week and Phoenix went 0-3, effectively eliminating them from contention. With 7/8 long gone and Phoenix/Portland taking themselves out of contention for the 10, we are essentially playing for HCA in the first play-in game. Gotta get that play-in money at the G1C!

[OxAndFox]

The Current Situation:

9. Sacramento Kings (38-40)
10. Dallas Mavericks (38-41)
--
11. Phoenix Suns (35-43)

Kings split again this week to go 2-2, Dallas went 1-3 for the week and Phoenix went 0-3, effectively eliminating them from contention. With 7/8 long gone and Phoenix/Portland taking themselves out of contention for the 10, we are essentially playing for HCA in the first play-in game. Gotta get that play-in money at the G1C!

Yeah. Now that it's all but confirmed gotta go and get HCA for that first play in game. There is a real path to the first round of the POs here for the Kings. Dallas and then Memphis (most likely) are more than winnable games.

I would actually love for this team to go up against OKC in the first round. They have too much talent for us, but we are also a really good match up for them. I know Doug wouldn't go this way with it but I would have Keon/SGA & Keegan/JW.
The real problem comes with the bigs with Chet/IHart. DDR has to go with 1 of them and Sabonis the other. I say DDR onto IHart and if OKC tries to go to that mismatch then you're taking them out of what they want to do. DDR has the strength.
That would leave Lavine on Dort.

I think that series for the starters would be closer than people would think, but ultimately their DD, Defense & Depth would be far too much for the Kings.

[codydaze]

Malik out with a calf strain and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Set to miss the rest of the season and the play-in game(s).

[OxAndFox]

Malik out with a calf strain and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Set to miss the rest of the season and the play-in game(s).

Yep so he is out for the rest of the season. You would think re-evaluated in 2 weeks means around 22-24th and not likely to be coming back by then, but possibly a few days after. Playoffs start on the 19th. So maybe the last game of the sweep.
I actually thought it would be a semi competitive series if we were able to be at full fitness against OKC. I'm not suggesting we win the series or anything, just it might not have been as big a cakewalk as some might think. Like, is SGA going to get the calls he does in the RS? Nope. So does that take them out of their flow a little? Maybe. With Keon and Keegan switching on/off of him along with Carter it might be a tough series.
Same could be said for Lavine with Dort/Caruso being on him for the most part. Anyway, that might not even eventuate.