What the Kings need...

Smills91 · Post #1 » by **Smills91** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:38 pm

...Derrick Rose. We need to win the lottery(or get the 2nd pick with a team set at PG needing a big to win) in order to nab this guy.

I know it's extremely far-fetched, but this franchise needs to catch a break.

Between C-Webb's knee, Peja's knee, Bibby's thumb the past two seasons, Ricky Berry, Bobby Hurley, Ralph Sampson, Pervis Ellison, Derek Smith this team has been loaded with tragedies in its past.

The TWO breaks I've seen the Kings land are:
1) Richmond for C-Webb
2) Owens for Richmond.

The rest of the teams success has hinged on good drafting, deft management skills, and player development.

If the Blazers catch the break of landing Oden, then we need to catch the break of landing Rose.

Rose/Martin/Cisco/Williams*/Hawes

We'd have some epic battles against the Blazers in 2-3 years as the youngin's develop.

*I use this VERY loosely as I believe we could land a PF with our expirings in 2010 of Miller/Thomas/SAR to fill that void.

deNIEd · Post #2 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:16 pm

And you were so against tanking and playing youngs like Seldon/Hawes over Miller/Moore.

Smills, I really don't think you can say anything about we needing to draft Rose, since you more than anyone else opposed tanking, and saying we could make the playoffs/we need to win as much as we can.

If we lost 5-6 more games, we would be looking at 7-8th pick in terms of ranking, which actually makes a top 3 pick realistic.

andaaaay · Post #3 » by **andaaaay** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:17 pm

I believe its going to happen kings will win the lottery, gotta have faith ppl.

I couldn't agree with you more. Rose is a stud, and he should be #1 pick no matter what. I also would hope that we could trade ron ron for another mid - high pick for Arthur. We'd have a great young core for many yrs.

deNIEd · Post #4 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:19 pm

"If the Blazers catch the break of landing Oden, then we need to catch the break of landing Rose."

Last year, we lost 3 or so more games, and we would have had the same chance of landing the break as Portland did.

Whatever happened to...
"You don't rebuild through the draft. You rebuild through trades and free agency." - Smills

deNIEd · Post #5 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:29 pm

Winning games and Winning the lottery do not go hand in hand

andaaaay · Post #6 » by **andaaaay** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:31 pm

No negative attitudes! just gotta believe haha

sackings916 · Post #7 » by **sackings916** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:34 pm

The Kings do deserve a break - but that doesn't take away from the fact that we have a less than 1% chance of winning the lottery. So if the NBA did the lottery 100 times, we wouldn't even win it once out of every hundred.

deNIEd · Post #8 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:38 pm

andaaaay wrote:No negative attitudes! just gotta believe haha

Believing/hoping is for fools
Make a plan, and be stragetic about it.

Next year's draft also has a group of solid players
Rubio, Jennings, Evans, Griffin

Trade Miller, Trade Moore, maybe trade artest.
Lose the year, let Spencer play 30 minutes of every game. Let rookies play. Let Sheldon play. We lose, but we trade our hardest.
Therefore, we win in terms of making fans happy, lottery happy, developing players happy.

PaKwAn · Post #9 » by **PaKwAn** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:42 pm

In short we need LUCK....

andaaaay · Post #10 » by **andaaaay** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:42 pm

I guess the glass is half-empty around this board.

deNIEd · Post #11 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:52 pm

andaaaay wrote:I guess the glass is half-empty around this board.

Half empty or half full would be if we had statistically the 7-8th pick.

In our case, we have about 2 drops

andaaaay · Post #12 » by **andaaaay** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:52 pm

well then another lottery yr next year, and probably the yr after that too!

longfellow44 · Post #13 » by **longfellow44** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:10 pm

I have an Idea for us to get the # 2 pick.

If Miami were to get the 2nd pick and Beasley was already gone.
Ron Artest #12 pick
for
Blount/Banks #2 pick

The heat get rid of some negative salary get a much improved player plus still have a lotto pick. They draft Augustine with the #12.

Heat Roster.
Jwill-resigned/Augustine
Wade/Cook
Artest/Wright
Marion/Haslem
MLE/LLE

Brad Miller could be added to the trade to give the Heat a legit C. Over all I think it's pretty good value for the Heat but i may be wrong.

Kings Roster.
Rose/Udrih
Martin/Douby
Salmons/Garcia
Mikki/Shelden
Miller/Hawes

However miller could be gone if he needed to be included in the miami trade.

andaaaay · Post #14 » by **andaaaay** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:26 pm

This isn't a bad idea because of all the teams that have a realistic chance at getting the 1 or 2 pick, the heat seem to be the only ones that want to win now and not rebuild. Thats the only reason why I could see them going for Artest since hes a proven vet and adding miller would help them win now as well. But still not a good chance of happening since Rose is that good of a player.

deNIEd · Post #15 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:44 pm

Heat can do A LOT better than Artest/Miller/#12 for the number 2 pick

Smills91 · Post #16 » by **Smills91** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:55 pm

deNIEd wrote:And you were so against tanking and playing youngs like Seldon/Hawes over Miller/Moore.

Smills, I really don't think you can say anything about we needing to draft Rose, since you more than anyone else opposed tanking, and saying we could make the playoffs/we need to win as much as we can.

If we lost 5-6 more games, we would be looking at 7-8th pick in terms of ranking, which actually makes a top 3 pick realistic.

The difference between the 8th position and the 12th position is minimal in terms of winning the lottery. I'd much rather compete at that juncture than TANK. And we were pegged at teh 11th-12th spots for about the last month of the season with no real signs of going up or down from there. So the 'tanking' argument is a bit fruitless.

Smills91 · Post #17 » by **Smills91** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:57 pm

deNIEd wrote:"If the Blazers catch the break of landing Oden, then we need to catch the break of landing Rose."

Last year, we lost 3 or so more games, and we would have had the same chance of landing the break as Portland did.

Whatever happened to...
"You don't rebuild through the draft. You rebuild through trades and free agency." - Smills

Tis true...unless you typically get a top 3-4 pick. We're way too talented to be able to do that. And then again you have to be lucky enough to get a top 3 pick or so in the 'right' draft as well.

Smills91 · Post #18 » by **Smills91** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:58 pm

andaaaay wrote:I guess the glass is half-empty around this board.

No just too much glass.

deNIEd · Post #19 » by **deNIEd** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:22 am

Odds
12th
Pick #1: 0.700000%
Pick #2: 0.829659%
Pick #3: 1.008231%

Smills91 wrote:The difference between the 8th position and the 12th position is minimal in terms of winning the lottery.

[quote="Smills91"] And we were pegged at teh 11th-12th spots for about the last month of the season with no real signs of going up or down from there. [quote]
There is only a 6 game difference between us and the 8th spot. If we lost every game from Mar 29th on, we would have had the 6th pick.

But lets, suppose a different thing.

What happens if instead of winning, we lose every game that we won by 4 or fewer points, as well as losing to the top 6 teams in the league?

Where would our pick be at?

Well lets see...

11th Pick - Lose 3 more games, Apr 12(NO 3 point game) & Apr 5(Den 3 point game), Apr 3(Hou 1 point game)
Pick #1: 0.800000%
Pick #2: 0.947370%
Pick #3: 1.150135%

10th Pick - Lose 5 more games, Above +, Mar 26 (Mem 1 point), Mar 9 (LAL 1 point game)
Pick #1: 1.100000%
Pick #2: 1.299270%
Pick #3: 1.572625%

9th Pick - Lose 6 more games, + Feb 22 (Char. 1 point game)
Pick #1: 1.700000%
Pick #2: 1.997470%
Pick #3: 2.402970%

8th Pick - 7 more games, + Feb 8(Utah)
Pick #1: 2.800000%
Pick #2: 3.257716%
Pick #3: 3.873697%

Since the allstar break, if we lost all the games within 3 points, we go from having a 2.53% chance of landing a top three pick, to a 9.93% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

Say we continue this, and lose all games within 4 points, as well as the top 6 teams...our odds become...

7th Pick - 13 games - + Feb 2(Chi. 4 points), Feb 1(NO), Jan 27(Sea. 2 points), Jan 18(Det), Jan 14(Dal. 2 point), Jan 10(Mem, 3 point),
Pick #1: 4.300000%
Pick #2: 4.933581%
Pick #3: 5.768725%
15% chance of top 3 pick

Tie at 5th and 6th, 15 games -Jan 8(Orl 4 point), Dec 10(Mil 3 point)

3rd Pick - Lose 17 more games, Dec 4(Utah), Dec 1 (Hous)
Pick #1: 13.800000%
Pick #2: 14.244135%
Pick #3: 14.538395%
42.6% chance of top 3 pick.

2nd Pick - Lose 19 more games - Nov 26(SAS), Nov 18(Det)
Pick #1: 19.900000%
Pick #2: 18.782358%
Pick #3: 17.065638%
55.75% CHANCE OF TOP 3 PICK

If
we lost every game within 4 points, as well as the top all the games we won beating the top 6 teams in the league...we would have had a 56% chance of a top 3 pick.

JUST GAMES WITHIN 4 POINTS OR THE 6 BEST TEAMS, and we would have been the 2nd worst team in the league.

Face it...we really aren't that great. Tanking it isn't that farfetched. Look at what winning those pointless games did...

deNIEd · Post #20 » by **deNIEd** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:23 am

Smills91 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Tis true...unless you typically get a top 3-4 pick. We're way too talented to be able to do that. And then again you have to be lucky enough to get a top 3 pick or so in the 'right' draft as well.

Really?!!!

Look above, we were very close to being one of the worst teams in the league.