Retroperspective on Kevin Martin contract
Posted: Fri Aug 1, 2008 2:07 pm
When the signing happened, it raised a lot of brows, the claim was that 11 a year is too much for 2nd option, that played at high level for a year and a half, basically the fact that it was the first non trivial signing of that draft class (and one of only 3 signings IIRC), put a lot of question marks around it.
Since then, Martin continued his good play in his 4th year, shooting % dropped, but he was absolutely amazing in going to the line (when combining his converting ratio I'd put him at top 3 in the league), and still one of the best scorers in terms of both volume and efficiency.
I wanted to wait until the Gordon situation in Chicago is resolved but it seems to be taking forever, and I don't think there will be more indications to this discussion than what we already have.
So, looking at the current signing rate for his draft class:
Emeka Okafor: He was bad (for a 2nd pick and 1st pick candidate) the 1st 2 years, but picked it up in the last 2 years, he's a 14/11 along with ~2 blocks and good percentages, he got 12 millions for 6 years, on the other side, he was injured in every year of his 1st 3 years, he isn't a focal point in offense, and a very bad FT shooter, his team failed to provide any threat on a PO spot even in a very weak competition in the middle spots of the east, I'd say he should've gotten something similar to Kevin because of the position he fills, which he did, only for more years.
Luol Deng: Like Kevin, he peaked in his 3rd year, and was of a very successful young core in Chicago, but his playing style have always been style of 2nd/3rd option (which is the main knock on Kevin), and despite that he didn't match Kevin neither in efficiency nor in volume, he is younger, but already 4 years vet, and his play in late game situations left something to be desired, stat wise: his last 2 years he was 18/6.5 player, with good defense, but not great, he's not a better player than Kevin, but he got a 12/year for 6 years which can be increased with incentives.
Monta Ellis: A freak athlete of a guard, very quick and lethatl in the fast break, but he's small, not a PG (we'll see about that this year, but he gave no indication of being one), he acheived very good stats (still not close to Kevin), next to a great PG, in a very fast paced team, his ceiling is very high, but so are the Q marks around him, if you account for potential a similar price tag should be justifiable, and he did get it.
Ben Gordon: With Deng (and even moreso) he provides the closest thing to Kevin from this FA class, great perimeter scorer with questionable defense, PG size and PG game, with Ray Allan and Steve Nash starting to fade, he possesses one of the best shooting form and accuracy between guards , but doesn't go to the line enough for a premier scorer, he's a worse player then Kevin Martin, but he's asking for more money and I don't see Chicago sttling with him for less than 10/year.
There is still also Igualdala who's asking from for 75/6, Biedrins who got same 54/6 with incentives that could get him to 63.
When the Kevin Martin signing was announced, my reaction was, it's good value, and I was satisfied with it, but wondered what was the gain from doing it now, and not wait till after the 4th year.
Looking at the troubles that Chicago went through in the negotiations, the Iggy and Josh Smith not-settled-yet negotiations, and what Deng/Okafor/Ellis got, my take, is that the signing was great, for the following season:
1. There is no FA from the 04 draft class (I'll lump Ellis there since he's a 2nd round of 05), that got less by waiting, keep in mind that Gordon and Deng actually lowered their stock and Deng still got more than Kevin.
2. The Kings saved themselves from a long negotiations and disgruntled player/agent, imagine handling greater demands from Kevin and full MLE request from Beno, when we're at the verge of LT, a 1 million more on Kevin's deal this year would've meant 1 million less room for play (the Houston trade might not be feasible) in Artest's trade or Beno's signing.
That was a long post, feel free to comment with your thoughts.
Since then, Martin continued his good play in his 4th year, shooting % dropped, but he was absolutely amazing in going to the line (when combining his converting ratio I'd put him at top 3 in the league), and still one of the best scorers in terms of both volume and efficiency.
I wanted to wait until the Gordon situation in Chicago is resolved but it seems to be taking forever, and I don't think there will be more indications to this discussion than what we already have.
So, looking at the current signing rate for his draft class:
Emeka Okafor: He was bad (for a 2nd pick and 1st pick candidate) the 1st 2 years, but picked it up in the last 2 years, he's a 14/11 along with ~2 blocks and good percentages, he got 12 millions for 6 years, on the other side, he was injured in every year of his 1st 3 years, he isn't a focal point in offense, and a very bad FT shooter, his team failed to provide any threat on a PO spot even in a very weak competition in the middle spots of the east, I'd say he should've gotten something similar to Kevin because of the position he fills, which he did, only for more years.
Luol Deng: Like Kevin, he peaked in his 3rd year, and was of a very successful young core in Chicago, but his playing style have always been style of 2nd/3rd option (which is the main knock on Kevin), and despite that he didn't match Kevin neither in efficiency nor in volume, he is younger, but already 4 years vet, and his play in late game situations left something to be desired, stat wise: his last 2 years he was 18/6.5 player, with good defense, but not great, he's not a better player than Kevin, but he got a 12/year for 6 years which can be increased with incentives.
Monta Ellis: A freak athlete of a guard, very quick and lethatl in the fast break, but he's small, not a PG (we'll see about that this year, but he gave no indication of being one), he acheived very good stats (still not close to Kevin), next to a great PG, in a very fast paced team, his ceiling is very high, but so are the Q marks around him, if you account for potential a similar price tag should be justifiable, and he did get it.
Ben Gordon: With Deng (and even moreso) he provides the closest thing to Kevin from this FA class, great perimeter scorer with questionable defense, PG size and PG game, with Ray Allan and Steve Nash starting to fade, he possesses one of the best shooting form and accuracy between guards , but doesn't go to the line enough for a premier scorer, he's a worse player then Kevin Martin, but he's asking for more money and I don't see Chicago sttling with him for less than 10/year.
There is still also Igualdala who's asking from for 75/6, Biedrins who got same 54/6 with incentives that could get him to 63.
When the Kevin Martin signing was announced, my reaction was, it's good value, and I was satisfied with it, but wondered what was the gain from doing it now, and not wait till after the 4th year.
Looking at the troubles that Chicago went through in the negotiations, the Iggy and Josh Smith not-settled-yet negotiations, and what Deng/Okafor/Ellis got, my take, is that the signing was great, for the following season:
1. There is no FA from the 04 draft class (I'll lump Ellis there since he's a 2nd round of 05), that got less by waiting, keep in mind that Gordon and Deng actually lowered their stock and Deng still got more than Kevin.
2. The Kings saved themselves from a long negotiations and disgruntled player/agent, imagine handling greater demands from Kevin and full MLE request from Beno, when we're at the verge of LT, a 1 million more on Kevin's deal this year would've meant 1 million less room for play (the Houston trade might not be feasible) in Artest's trade or Beno's signing.
That was a long post, feel free to comment with your thoughts.