Derrick Rose vs. Tyreke Evans

[Chicago Trojan]

I posted this on the Bulls board, and got a strong preference for Derrick Rose. I was intrigued to see what Kings fans thought about this comparison. I personally lean towards Rose (although I am a Bulls fan) and thought that most people would feel similarly. Would like to see your insights into this comparison of outstanding young players.

[cuad]

Derrick Rose loses his athleticism and becomes a scrub. Evans loses his athleticism and becomes a wing.

[BriGuy]

Do not really see a point in comparing a second year to a first year .. maybe after 2 years compare ...

Otherwise I feel Tyreke has had a better Rookie year than DRose Rookie year ... I wont vote on this just put a thought forward.

[SacKingZZZ]

Uh, probably not the most unbiased place to pose this question don't ya think!? Hahaha.

They're both good, but from what I've seen out of Tyreke, I'm going him and trying to appear as least homeristic as possible.

[SacTown Kings]

Reke is just as good as Rose offensively and way better than Rose defensively. Not sure how anyone can pick Rose over Reke. Both are all star caliber players. Also Reke can guard 4 positions and play 3 positions so he is also more versatile.

[Dustin5566]

Shooter- Rose
Athleticism- Rose
Defender- Evans
Driving ability- Evans
Quickness- Rose
Strength- Evans
Passer- Rose
Rebounder- Evans
Versitility- Evans
Clutchness- Evans

More likely to lead the league in assist- Rose

More likely to be completly unguardable- Evans

[longfellow44]

Lets put it this way. I think that Rose may have more total potential than Evans. But I don't think he reaches his full potential. Evans will likely fill his potential and that could be scary. The reason rose has such high potential is because his athleticism is off the charts the guy is capable of doing a lot with his leaping ability but Ultimately I think he won't quite reach his ceiling. Evans has the ability to be great but his build is so solid and he is rather heavy with the muscle that he has that his leaping ability isn't going to ever be as great as rose but his brute strength will ultimately see that he is able to work more in the post and be a better defender.

[darkadun]

I see them becoming different players, which they are. Right now it is hard to be totally unbiased because I don't watch every Bulls game like I do with the kings. However, I totally agree with what Dustin said. Evans will be the tougher player to guard because of his strength and athleticism, while Rose will be better and being more of a pure point guard.

The one edge I give to Evans right now is his clutch mentality. Evans seems to have more of a killer instict and ability to take over a game in the 4th. Not taking away from Rose, because again I don't watch every Bulls game. But the way Evans has dominated and won some games this year at 20 years old is just unbelievable.

Regardless, they are both outstanding young players.

[deNIEd]

Lets put it this way. I think that Rose may have more total potential than Evans. But I don't think he reaches his full potential. Evans will likely fill his potential and that could be scary. The reason rose has such high potential is because his athleticism is off the charts the guy is capable of doing a lot with his leaping ability but Ultimately I think he won't quite reach his ceiling. Evans has the ability to be great but his build is so solid and he is rather heavy with the muscle that he has that his leaping ability isn't going to ever be as great as rose but his brute strength will ultimately see that he is able to work more in the post and be a better defender.

I agree with this.

In my opinion, Rose at full potential would just truly scary and easily a top 3 player in the league. However, his attitude and personality I think will limit him from reaching that level.

Rose has a higher ceiling
Evans has a much better shot at reaching his ceiling

[ATL DirtyBird]

When Evans hits his peak he will be one of the most unguardable players in the halfcourt. If he can improve that jumpshot like LeBron has he will be a FREAK

[Nicky Nix Nook]

As someone has already said:

Tyreke is having a better rookie season than Rose did at the same age. Tyreke however has shown elite level potential on the defensive end, as well as being a clutch go to guy. I don't see any justification for Rose over Evans at this point.

[ICMTM]

I'd take Evans over Rose, but honestly if you posted Evans vs Kobe this board would find a reason to justify Evans.

If you're asking who's better look on Youtube. They've played against each other before they went to the NCAA. Maybe Coach Cal was at that game?

I'll say Reke will have the better NBA career. That's the fan in me talking though.

[Chicago Trojan]

appreciate the thoughts. I was expecting some biased replies, but that is what I got when I posted this on the bulls board.

It would be interesting to see what a "unbiased" board would say. Hard though because Rose gets so much more nati. airtime than Evans, his game is just better known.

[darkadun]

Its certainly a interesting debate, but we can't say for sure untill each is in their prime and we see what they have accomplished. IMO its kind of like comparing D Wade or Lebron. Both superstars, with each developing somewhat different games. You could rightly say Lebron is the better overall player, and most would pick him over Wade. Yet on the otherhand, Wade has won a title, one in which he dominated and brought his team back from a 0-2 deficit.

I think Chicago and Sac should just be happy we each have our respecting players. But it will be interesting in 4-5 years and see how they and our teams compare.

[longfellow44]

With wall coming into the league after this year that will be 3 callapari PG's that are at the top of the talent pool, In 3 consecutive years.

[Wolfay]

Rose is a superior athlete, but Evans has a rare build for a guard that allows him to overpower pretty much any other guard in the world, and he's a lot smarter and craftier than Rose. Bottom line, Evans has the power to dominate the game on both ends of the court. I don't see Rose as having the same impact, now or in the future.

[SacKingZZZ]

Actually, you know what, I think they'll be at a pretty similar level when all is said and done. They'll just do what they do differently.

[KF10]

Both Rose and Evans are great young players. As of right now, I think it is too close to call. If you guys are curious, here is the breakdown stat-wise with some analysis:

Tyreke Evans:

20.3 points
4.9 rebounds
5.5 assists
1.5 steals
0.5 blocks

46.8% FG (attempting 15.9 shots per game)
25.7% 3s (attempting 1.9 3s per game)
76.2% FTs (attempting 6.5 FTs per game)

Derrick Rose:

20.3 points
3.8 rebounds
5.7 assists
0.8 steals
0.3 blocks

48.4% FG (attempting 17.6 shots per game)
24% 3s (attempting 0.4 3s per game)
76.3% FTs (attempting 4.2 FTs per game)

Both are evenly matched on points but Rose is attempting shots more than Evans (+1.7). Though, Rose has the higher FG% (+1.6%). Evans has the advantage on the boards (+1.1). Rose has the advantage on assists (+0.2). Evans has the advantage on steals and blocks (+0.7 & +0.2). Evans is shooting at a higher clip long distance (+1.7). Rose has the advantage on FT% (+0.1) but Evans attempting more FTs per game (+2.3).

Evans is the better overall around player based on basic stats.

Lets look at advance stats:

Tyreke Evans:

PER: 18.8
TS%: 0.542%
eFG%: 0.483%
ORB%: 2.7%
DRB%: 12.3%
TRB%: 7.5%
AST%: 25.0%
STL%: 2.1%
BLK%: 0.9%
TOV%: 13.5%
USG%: 25.8%
ORtg: 109
DRtg: 110

Derrick Rose:

PER: 18.0
TS%: 0.519%
eFG%: 0.484%
ORB%: 2.7%
DRB%: 8.8%
TRB%: 5.8%
AST%: 29.4%
STL%: 1.1%
BLK%: 0.6%
TOV%: 12.7%
USG%: 27.3%
ORtg: 104
DRtg: 108

Evans is the more efficient scorer than Rose due to having a higher TS%, PER, comparable eFG%, and a higher ORtg. Rose has a higher AST% and lower TOV%, making Rose the better playmaker than Evans. ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, STL%, and BLK% all favors Evans. Obviously Evans is larger, longer, taller than Rose, it is by virtue that Evans favors over Rose in those specific statistical outputs.

But interesting enough, Rose has the better DRtg (108) than Evans (110). Using the classic eyeball test, there is no way Rose is a better defender than Evans. Evans is generally perceived as, at least, an above average defender in the NBA, while Rose is barely average as a defender. One theory of why Rose has the better DRtg is that the Bulls are a much better defensive team than the Kings. The Bulls 'defensive efficiency' (points allowed by opponent) is a rock-solid 100.9 rating. Which is #6th in the NBA. While the Kings 'defensive efficiency' is a horrendous 107.7 rating. Which is #27th in the NBA (Only New Jersey Nets and Toronto Raptors are a worse defensive team than the Kings).

Team's DefEff correlates to the player's DRtg. Bad defensive teams deflates respectable/solid defenders (Evans) and very good defensive teams hides deficient defenders (Rose).

Next, I'm going to evaluate the player's strengths shot location-wise for both players. Let's start with Evans' best shot location, at rim:

At rim:

Tyreke Evans:

Evans is attempting 8.1 shots at rim per game, while making 4.9 of his attempts. That's 60.9% of his rim shots.

Derrick Rose:

Rose is attempting 5.4 shots at rim per game, while making 2.9 of his attempts. That's 54.0% of his rim shots.

Analysis:

It's hard to believe how a guy like Rose has a lower shot conversion than Evans and a much lower shot frequency at the rim than Evans as well. Given his natural/athletic abilities, he should be on the elite level in this category with Evans. Here is my observation about this:


-69% of Rose's total shots are jumpshots.
-31% of Rose's total shots are 'inside' shots.

40.3% of 69.0% of Rose's jumpshots comes from 16-23 feet. Rose's primary offensive game comes from that area. I think that is the main reason why you see Rose's lack of attempts at rim/FTs in general. I can't say it is all bad because Rose has one of the better mid range games, if not, one of best mid range games in the NBA. (I'm going to get to that later). So, you can suffice to that.

Also, from my observation of Rose's lack of drawing fouls is that, frankly, he tries to avoid contact at the rim. It may sound strange but from what I've seen (I watch Bulls games for a while i.e LP Broadband FTW!) and heard from Bulls fans, he is not looking to draw the foul as frequent as he should. It is almost a habit to avoid any contact when possible. As awesome how Rose makes those aerobatic layups over his defender, it is not a high % shot. Thus, his overall rim shot conversion suffers because of that. Some may argue he does not gets calls from the refs but I don't think it is a significant excuse of the lack of FTs attempts/at rim attempts. Especially knowing most of his offensive damage comes from 16-23 feet away from the rim.

One the other hand, Evans' ability to get to the rim is fantastic. Evans is a much much better slasher, on/off ball penetrator to the rim than Rose. Evans is already elite in this category. Evans' isolation skill set is advance for his age. He uses various of crossovers, hesitations, spin moves, ball fakes, jab steps to get his man off balance. His strength and size are one of his advantages to get to the rack. Whether he posts on smaller players or take anyone off the dribble, he is a force. Evans is a tremendous finisher around the rim (60.9% overall and +6.9% advantage over Rose), capable of focusing on the shot regardless of contact.

To put things into perspective, Evans is #1 in the NBA in shots attempted at rim. Also, #1 in the NBA in shots made at rim per game (tied with LeBron James and David Lee).

Not to discredit Rose's inside attack/offense in general but Evans' inside attack/offense is another level than Rose's. It's really insane how predicable Evans's drive is sometimes. To think you can stop him by forcing him to go to his weakside but that hasn't happen. This shows how good of a player Evans really is. And to respond to various of defenses implemented by teams all around the L, it is incredible.

Okay, lets see Rose's best shot location, 16-23 feet.

At 16-23 feet:

Tyreke Evans:

Evans is attempting 3.5 shots at 16-23 feet, while making 1.2 of his attempts. That's 34.0% of his shots.

Derrick Rose:

Rose is attempting 7.1 shots at 16-23 feet, while making 2.9 of his attempts. That's 42.0% of his shots.

Analysis:

At first glance, Rose is shooting at 16-23 feet with much more frequency than Evans (+3.6 shot attempts more). And converting them at a higher rate too (+8% advantage). Holy moly! Just from that alone, Rose has a significant advantage over Evans in that category. Rose likes to operate from the top of the key and both elbow ranges, 79.2% of his 16-23 feet range is from that range alone! Preferably, he likes his (left) elbow jumpers that he hits at a high clip, 0.475%. It makes Rose a very tough cover. He can either use screens of his big men and pop out from there, play the PnR with Noah, Miller, Gibson, play pick and pop with either Gibson, Deng or Miller (Rose is among leaders in 'assists leading to a 16-23 feet jumper' with 2.1 assists per game. That's #5 in the NBA tied with Westbrook), or drives right by his defenders when they overplay and create havoc.

To be put it into perspective about Rose's 16-23 feet offensive game, he is #3 in the NBA in shots attempted in that range (Only behind Dirk and Hamilton). And Rose is #4 in the NBA in shots made in that range (Only behind Dirk, Hamilton and Butler). The great thing about his high volume shots at that range, he is converting them too! His conversion rate is 42% overall. The only players that has a higher conversion rate in that range (players that are attempting at least 5 shots at that range) are:

-Dirk (48%)
-Paul (47%)
-Kobe (44%)
-Roy (44%)
-Butler (43%)

That's it. Only 5 players (with a minimum of attempting 5 shots at 16-23 feet) are hitting their jumpers at a better rate than Rose.

Lets expand it a bit. If you are looking at Rose's shot location within less than 10 feet away from the basket (excluding shots directly at rim) and 10-15 range, he is converting them at a ridiculous rate.

Shots taken within less than 10 feet away, he is converting at an insane rate of 59.7%! If you take the players that are playing significant minutes (20+ minutes) and are taking equal attempts (or more) as Rose, there is no one in the NBA that comes close. The closest player that comes close to his conversion rate and attempting more shots are:

Amare: 52.1% (attempting 3.3 shots)
Johnson: 52.5% (attempting 3.5 shots)

Even then, Rose is much more productive than those players, FG%-wise in that area. I would like to see Rose attempting more from that area. He is just ridiculous from there.

At 10-15 feet, he is attempting 2.5 shots at that area. Which is #12 in the NBA. He is converting them at 46.8%. The only players that are hitting at a higher rate than Rose while maintaining an equal or higher volume as Rose are:

-Kobe: 49.8% (attempting 4.4 shots)

That's incredible. Well to be fair, I left out guys like Roy, Bosh, Durant, Hill, Nash, Johnson and Paul that are converting their shots at a similar level (if not, higher) but with a tad bit less volume. But nonetheless, Rose is very effective there.

.....

There is a lot of things I left out for both guys. For Rose, I know he played through an ankle injury (which cost him the whole training camp/pre-season iirc) until mid-December-ish. And he also had a recent injury on his right hip due to a fall not too long ago. So, his numbers are skewed a bit. But you can say the same thing to Evans as well, he played on a bum ankle in the early parts of the season. And he also had various minor injuries throughout the season that lingered. Because of that, I decided to keep the numbers as is for both of these players.

Also, I also left out analyzing both of these player's defense, playmaking, impact to their teams, clutch factor, intagibles and other factors.

These players are great of what they do best:

-Rose's dynamic offensive game within the three point line.
-Evans' elite isolation skill set/attack mentality.

I honestly believe they are contrasting in strengths. Give Evans the ability to hit 16-23 foot jumpers/offensive game in general, he is a superstar easily. Give Rose the ability/mentality to attack the rim with such prowess, he is a superstar easily.

I think these guys will lead the league for the next decade. Rose and Evans with Deron and Paul, will make up the top 4-5 point guard rankings for a long time.

The Bulls and Kings franchise has one of the brightest young stars in the NBA. Both of these players are studs and has tremendous upside, I'm glad we have them.

Kings fans will enjoy Evans for the next decade and Bulls fans will enjoy Rose for the next decade as well.

[artest420]

Shooter- Rose
Athleticism- Rose
Defender- Evans
Driving ability- Evans
Quickness- Rose
Strength- Evans
Passer- Rose
Rebounder- Evans
Versitility- Evans
Clutchness- Evans

More likely to lead the league in assist- Rose

More likely to be completly unguardable- Evans

Exacty, and evans is 6'5 or 6'6 with a 7ft wing span

[Fola314]

Awesome post KF10, thanks for the breakdown.

I agree with others stating that its hard to compare, especially since Rose is in his second year. I think most of us expect a slight increase in production from Evans next season as his understanding of the NBA game grows. As of right now I'd say they are equal players. This would be a good topic for the Player Comparison board in order to get unbiased opinions.