#1 Overall Picks

[EMG518]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

[peZt]

It's mainly got to do with the One and Done era vs. players being in college for 3-4 years back in the day.
When you look at the #1 picks of the past decade or so, most of them were the obvious picks at the time (bar a few exceptions like Bennett). Even Fultz was the clear #1 pick to most people.
But most of the best players in the world tend to be late bloomers. Kawhi, Harden, Curry, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Butler. They get overlooked when playing for weak college teams or go pro after just one year. Back in the day an Embiid would've stayed at Kansas for 3 or 4 years and would've gone #1 in his draft class.

But anyway, not even sure I agree with your point. I see more busts in the first list. Half of the busts in the second list are due to unforseen injuries (Rose, Fultz, Oden) or just one braindead team picking an obvious bust (Bennett). I don't think you can count these when arguing if #1 picks used to be better or not. I see only Ayton, Bargnani and Bogut as "weak" #1 picks whether it be due to low level of play or bad draft scouting.
On the other hand you have guys like Kwame Brown, Olokwandi, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Joe Smith who aren't really #1 pick worthy

[Im Your Father]

It's mainly got to do with the One and Done era vs. players being in college for 3-4 years back in the day.
When you look at the #1 picks of the past decade or so, most of them were the obvious picks at the time (bar a few exceptions like Bennett). Even Fultz was the clear #1 pick to most people.
But most of the best players in the world tend to be late bloomers. Kawhi, Harden, Curry, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic, Butler. They get overlooked when playing for weak college teams or go pro after just one year. Back in the day an Embiid would've stayed at Kansas for 3 or 4 years and would've gone #1 in his draft class.

But anyway, not even sure I agree with your point. I see more busts in the first list. Half of the busts in the second list are due to unforseen injuries (Rose, Fultz, Oden) or just one braindead team picking an obvious bust (Bennett). I don't think you can count these when arguing if #1 picks used to be better or not. I see only Ayton, Bargnani and Bogut as "weak" #1 picks whether it be due to low level of play or bad draft scouting.
On the other hand you have guys like Kwame Brown, Olokwandi, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Joe Smith who aren't really #1 pick worthy

Who should've been picked over Brand in 1999?

[clyde21]

84-03 has more busts but the 1st overall picks were more top end talent, but the chances of you getting a good player #1 overall seems to be much better from 04-now based on your list

i mean from 08-12 you had Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie and Davis. none are on the LeBron or Hakeem or Shaq levels but more consistency at the top end than the previous couple of decades. also 07 could've easily went Durant #1 instead of Oden and that would've been 6 straight great #1 picks.

also the last few years between Zion, Cade and now Wemby coming up you have another stretch of great #1 picks.

i will say that in general we don't have a great track record of judging euro players, and you can legitimately say 4 of the top 5 players in the league are all euros - Luka, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic...and all were missed in some way during the draft process. Obv Luka and Embiid (even tho I myself didnt even have Luka that high, which was a miss) should've went #1, but both still went top3.

if these Euro guys actually went as high as they should've gone (#1 overall), this list would look a lot better.

[clyde21]

from 94-01 you had Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Michael Olowakandi, Joe Smith, Glenn Robinson drafted #1 overall.

that's 6/8 that turned out to be complete busts or disappointments for #1 overall picks.

the bust rate looks a lot higher actually in the first list so im not sure I agree with this at all.

[SNPA]

84-03 has more busts but the 1st overall picks were more top end talent, but the chances of you getting a good player #1 overall seems to be much better from 04-now based on your list

i mean from 08-12 you had Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie and Davis. none are on the LeBron or Hakeem or Shaq levels but more consistency at the top end than the previous couple of decades. also 07 could've easily went Durant #1 instead of Oden and that would've been 6 straight great #1 picks.

also the last few years between Zion, Cade and now Wemby coming up you have another stretch of great #1 picks.

i will say that in general we don't have a great track record of judging euro players, and you can legitimately say 4 of the top 5 players in the league are all euros - Luka, Giannis, Embiid, Jokic...and all were missed in some way during the draft process. Obv Luka and Embiid (even tho I myself didnt even have Luka that high, which was a miss) should've went #1, but both still went top3.

if these Euro guys actually went as high as they should've gone (#1 overall), this list would look a lot better.

What was your reasoning for not having Luka that high?

[SeattleJazzFan]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

you say it was significantly greater, but by what measure?

on first glance, it looks like about 9 or 10 perennial all-star type players in each pool. about 3 or 4 outright busts in each group as well. maybe the first group is slightly better but it's pretty close.

not to mention, in the later group you're sorta dealing with about 3 fewer years/players since we don't really know what Cade, Paulo or Wemby are or will be yet. move lebron and maybe even Yao to the later group to even it out, and it's about exactly even, if not even an edge to the last 20. i mean, paolo and wemby haven't even played a game yet.

[Colbinii]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

These years seem pretty arbitrary--going back 20 years then LeBron should be in the recent group while Ralph Sampson [injury issues = bust] is added to the older tier.

I like the 2004-2023 group better than the 1984-2003 group

[EMG518]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

you say it was significantly greater, but by what measure?

on first glance, it looks like about 9 or 10 perennial all-star type players in each pool. about 3 or 4 outright busts in each group as well. maybe the first group is slightly better but it's pretty close.

not to mention, in the later group you're sorta dealing with about 3 fewer years/players since we don't really know what Cade, Paulo or Wemby are or will be yet. move lebron and maybe even Yao to the later group to even it out, and it's about exactly even, if not even an edge to the last 20. i mean, paolo and wemby haven't even played a game yet.

By the measure of the first group having

Hakeem Olajuwan
Patrick Ewing
David Robinson
Shaquile Oneil
Chris Webber
Allen Iverson
Tim Duncan
Lebron James

[EMG518]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

These years seem pretty arbitrary--going back 20 years then LeBron should be in the recent group while Ralph Sampson [injury issues = bust] is added to the older tier.

I like the 2004-2023 group better than the 1984-2003 group

Yes, it is arbitrary, any years can be used and I chose 84-03 and 04-23 for this conversation.

You are entitled to your opinion, it's a strange one considering you have some of the best players of all time on the first list and the best player on the second list is Dwight Howard?

[Colbinii]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

These years seem pretty arbitrary--going back 20 years then LeBron should be in the recent group while Ralph Sampson [injury issues = bust] is added to the older tier.

I like the 2004-2023 group better than the 1984-2003 group

Yes, it is arbitrary, any years can be used and I chose 84-03 and 04-23 for this conversation.

You are entitled to your opinion, it's a strange one considering you have some of the best players of all time on the first list and the best player on the second list is Dwight Howard?

I'm a big believer and advocate for "Expected Value". I believe it is higher in the more recent tiers.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Have teams become worse at evaluating over the years or are the true #1 picks less obvious now? The quality of #1 overall picks was significantly greater from 84-03 vs 04-23. I don't think it's and indictment on the talent of the past 20 years either as there have been a ton of really great players to come up through the league, just not as #1 overall picks.


1984-2003

1984-Hakeem Olajuwan
1985-Patrick Ewing
1986-Brad Daugherty
1987-David Robinson
1988-Danny Manning
1989-Perry Ellison
1990-Derick Coleman
1991-Larry Johnson
1992-Shaquile Oneil
1993-Chris Webber
1994-Glenn Robinson
1995-Joe Smith
1996-Allen Iverson
1997-Tim Duncan
1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown
2002-Yao Ming
2003-Lebron James


2004-2023

2004-Dwight Howard
2005-Andrew Bogut
2006-Andrea Bargnani
2007-Greg Oden
2008-Derrick Rose
2009-Blake Griffin
2010-John Wall
2011-Kyrie Irving
2012-Anthony Davis
2013-Anthony Bennett
2014-Andrew Wiggins
2015-Karl Towns
2016-Ben Simmons
2017-Markelle Fultz
2018-Deandre Ayton
2019-Zion Williamson
2020-Anthony Edwards
2021-Cade Cunningham
2022-Paulo Banchero
2023-Victor Wembanyama?

you say it was significantly greater, but by what measure?

on first glance, it looks like about 9 or 10 perennial all-star type players in each pool. about 3 or 4 outright busts in each group as well. maybe the first group is slightly better but it's pretty close.

not to mention, in the later group you're sorta dealing with about 3 fewer years/players since we don't really know what Cade, Paulo or Wemby are or will be yet. move lebron and maybe even Yao to the later group to even it out, and it's about exactly even, if not even an edge to the last 20. i mean, paolo and wemby haven't even played a game yet.

By the measure of the first group having

Hakeem Olajuwan
Patrick Ewing
David Robinson
Shaquile Oneil
Chris Webber
Allen Iverson
Tim Duncan
Lebron James

lol. you continue to double down on the the fact that the second group has AT LEAST three fewer players. so yeah, you are likely going to have more stars when one group has 20 guys and the other group only has 17 (and that's being kind since Edwards and Zion are nowhere near the players they have a chance to become). look, this group with 20 guys has more good players than this group of 15!

please tell me you see the inconsistency and imbalance there.

[EMG518]

you say it was significantly greater, but by what measure?

on first glance, it looks like about 9 or 10 perennial all-star type players in each pool. about 3 or 4 outright busts in each group as well. maybe the first group is slightly better but it's pretty close.

not to mention, in the later group you're sorta dealing with about 3 fewer years/players since we don't really know what Cade, Paulo or Wemby are or will be yet. move lebron and maybe even Yao to the later group to even it out, and it's about exactly even, if not even an edge to the last 20. i mean, paolo and wemby haven't even played a game yet.

By the measure of the first group having

Hakeem Olajuwan
Patrick Ewing
David Robinson
Shaquile Oneil
Chris Webber
Allen Iverson
Tim Duncan
Lebron James

lol. you continue to double down on the the fact that the second group has AT LEAST three fewer players. so yeah, you are likely going to have more stars when one group has 20 guys and the other group only has 17 (and that's being kind since Edwards and Zion are nowhere near the players they have a chance to become). look, this group with 20 guys has more good players than this group of 15!

please tell me you see the inconsistency and imbalance there.

100% some of the 2nd list are not finished products and we don't know their ceilings.

What I do know is the first list has 4 guys that are like top 10ish all time depending on your list, give or take a couple of spots, you have another 3 probably top 25ish all time, another top 50ish all time.

So unless Zion, Cade, Edwards, Paolo, and Wemby all become top 10 ish guys which is not happening, I don't really see the argument.

The best player of anyone on that list to this point is Dwight Howard imo.

The amount of Titles, MVPs, and accolades for the first list is so far ahead.

[sisibilio]

1998-Michael Olowokandi
1999-Elton Brand
2000-Kenyon Martin
2001-Kwame Brown

That 4 year span is Hard to beat