Who is this year's top-5 bust?

[SkyHook]

I don’t see VJ as a bust. He plays smart, high-level defense, and while he’s undersized, his athleticism lets him play bigger similar to GP2. Plus, he can shoot. The only thing holding him back from star upside is his limited shot creation as a guard.

I think it depends on how you define a bust. A slightly better GP2 would, IMO, be a bust in the top-5. Agree that Ace is the other obvious pick. Lots of interesting tools but also bad red flags.

I’ve rooted for a lot of busts during my younger years, so I’ve become pretty familiar with how their careers tend to unfold (and also taught me how to spot them). To me, a “bust” is a prospect who fails to have a long, productive career in the league. The player who really made me realize this was Mike Conley, who was drafted 4th overall.

This reminds me of the famous quote from the US Supreme Court on obscenity: "I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"], and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that."

[Marvin Martian]

Harper?

High usage bad defense combo guards always have high bust potential because if they aren't elite offensively, then they quickly become irrelevant

[tmorgan]

I’m sure some of them will end up doing well, but honestly, I don’t like anyone for their projected draft slot in the top eight or ten except Flagg. He should be an average or significantly better than average #1 overall pick.

Harper for a #2? Feels kinda weak.
Bailey (or VJ, or Tre) for a #3 - 4 - 5? Feels weak.
Fears, Maluach, Kon? Weak for top 8.

I don’t know if anyone agrees with me on this or not, but my instincts say a lot of the starters from this draft may get picked out of the top 10, and they may take significant time to get there.

[SNPA]

I’m sure some of them will end up doing well, but honestly, I don’t like anyone for their projected draft slot in the top eight or ten except Flagg. He should be an average or significantly better than average #1 overall pick.

Harper for a #2? Feels kinda weak.
Bailey (or VJ, or Tre) for a #3 - 4 - 5? Feels weak.
Fears, Maluach, Kon? Weak for top 8.

I don’t know if anyone agrees with me on this or not, but my instincts say a lot of the starters from this draft may get picked out of the top 10, and they may take significant time to get there.

I’m on that bus.

I am struggling to get why this top ten has shaped up this way. I think there’s equal or better value down the draft.

[King Ken]

I’m sure some of them will end up doing well, but honestly, I don’t like anyone for their projected draft slot in the top eight or ten except Flagg. He should be an average or significantly better than average #1 overall pick.

Harper for a #2? Feels kinda weak.
Bailey (or VJ, or Tre) for a #3 - 4 - 5? Feels weak.
Fears, Maluach, Kon? Weak for top 8.

I don’t know if anyone agrees with me on this or not, but my instincts say a lot of the starters from this draft may get picked out of the top 10, and they may take significant time to get there.

I’m on that bus.

I am struggling to get why this top ten has shaped up this way. I think there’s equal or better value down the draft.

All of these guys gave question marks. That's why Coward is my 3rd overall prospect in this class.

[JMAC3]

I’m sure some of them will end up doing well, but honestly, I don’t like anyone for their projected draft slot in the top eight or ten except Flagg. He should be an average or significantly better than average #1 overall pick.

Harper for a #2? Feels kinda weak.
Bailey (or VJ, or Tre) for a #3 - 4 - 5? Feels weak.
Fears, Maluach, Kon? Weak for top 8.

I don’t know if anyone agrees with me on this or not, but my instincts say a lot of the starters from this draft may get picked out of the top 10, and they may take significant time to get there.

I’m on that bus.

I am struggling to get why this top ten has shaped up this way. I think there’s equal or better value down the draft.

All of these guys gave question marks. That's why Coward is my 3rd overall prospect in this class.

Is Coward 3rd in your ranks or tied with 12 guys for 3rd overall?

[codydaze]

I like them all quite a bit, but if VJ's offense doesn't get more advanced he will disappoint.

Basically Terrence Ross

Ross could score, though. I'm thinking D'Anthony Melton.

I see some Iman Shumpert similarities with VJ.

[bucknut]

If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

right there with you. Demin is basically nicola durisic except he lacks the creative handle and driving ability of durisic. And that dude was a second rounder. And now this guy is top 10 ? what am i missing

I can't even get through VJs film, I see nothing, what am i supposed to see ? 0 bone density, 0 production, ....looks like a track guy who is trying to play football, or in this case basketball. nothing looks natural or translatable.

kneuppal i like better then these two but no way hes a top 5 pick either

[Snotbubbles]

If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

right there with you. Demin is basically nicola durisic except he lacks the creative handle and driving ability of durisic. And that dude was a second rounder. And now this guy is top 10 ? what am i missing

I can't even get through VJs film, I see nothing, what am i supposed to see ? 0 bone density, 0 production, ....looks like a track guy who is trying to play football, or in this case basketball. nothing looks natural or translatable.

kneuppal i like better then these two but no way hes a top 5 pick either

I think Kneuppel will be a Georges Niang-type pro. He'll have value as a scorer, but will be an absolute zero on defense. I don't want to take that type of player in the top 5. I'd rather swing for the fences and miss on a player like Ace Bailey because Bailey at his best is easily a multiple time all star.

[SkyHook]

Spoiler:

If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

right there with you. Demin is basically nicola durisic except he lacks the creative handle and driving ability of durisic. And that dude was a second rounder. And now this guy is top 10 ? what am i missing

I can't even get through VJs film, I see nothing, what am i supposed to see ? 0 bone density, 0 production, ....looks like a track guy who is trying to play football, or in this case basketball. nothing looks natural or translatable.

kneuppal i like better then these two but no way hes a top 5 pick either

I think Kneuppel will be a Georges Niang-type pro. He'll have value as a scorer, but will be an absolute zero on defense. I don't want to take that type of player in the top 5. I'd rather swing for the fences and miss on a player like Ace Bailey because Bailey at his best is easily a multiple time all star.

I expect Kon to be far from a zero on defense, more from the effort I've seen than from his physical tools. The comparison I see is Kyle Korver but with significantly better defense. Is that a reach at five? Probably. Is his ceiling as high as Bailey's? Definitely not. Is he less likely than Ace to bust? Yes, I have high confidence.

[CptCrunch]

Maluach scares me a lot. Could just Thabeet it instantly. I see the upside.

Bailey is just bad on paper at every level, but looks a billion bucks.

Egor could be a non NBA player due to his flaws, but he is already risk adjusted down enough in the draft

0 doubt about Kon. Fears, VJ, Tre are all more likely to immediately bust out than Kon. Kon should be a 12 year or at minimum in some capacity.

[BlazersBroncos]

Not Top-5 but I also think Maluach.

Not great BLK%, not great athletic testing, shooting is only projection. Really not sure what the difference between him and a Nick Richards as a prospect is outside 2 inches or so in height.

I think there is a chance Ace is more Tim Thomas than Kevin Durant - but he is still worth a Top-5 slot.