Ace Bailey

[SeattleJazzFan]

Ace's level of toughness/physicality is hard to judge as he's a really good rebounder and a really bad foul drawer.

i think what evan is saying or if not, at least what i would say is that he (he being Evan) is right about his toughness and physicality, but it's mostly manifested, perhaps entirely manifested, in his defense and rebounding. i don't think he's figured out how to be tough offensively. when he gets in the paint, he's usually fading away or taking hook shots - and you're just not going to get fouled much when that's the case

The issue offensively is simply the handle. I think its too loose. His basic crossovers look really wide to me . He's limited with where he can go with it and at Rutgers ... alot of the poor shot selection was tied to putting the ball in his hands and letting him cook ... which he really couldn't do consistently. However he is taylor made for an off-ball role as he continues to work on his on-the-ball skills and maybe in 2-3 yrs, we can see some on ball developnent.

agreed. i alluded to that above as well.

[clyde21]

Honestly he already looks better than Kuminga. Not that that's saying much, but what separates Bailey is his willingness and even eagerness to rebound and get physical in the paint. If that is truly who Ace Bailey is, I don't think he can fail (in the way Kuminga really is trying to fail). I think this is the trait that a lot of people either were skeptical on or just slept on, but it's so important.

Ace's level of toughness/physicality is hard to judge as he's a really good rebounder and a really bad foul drawer.

bad foul drawer could be a handle thing and nothing to do w/ physicality, maybe it's an issue but I haven't seen much evidence that he's afraid of contact

[The-Power]

However he is taylor made for an off-ball role as he continues to work on his on-the-ball skills and maybe in 2-3 yrs, we can see some on ball developnent.

Agreed. The question will be whether he (and his camp) accept such a role and ‘slow’ process and fully commit to it.

[tmorgan]

Never underestimate outlier physical talent and skill.
Never over-estimate guys that often play stupid basketball.

So…. I guess never over-underestimate Bailey? I have no idea. This could go a lot of ways.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Never underestimate outlier physical talent and skill.
Never over-estimate guys that often play stupid basketball.

So…. I guess never over-underestimate Bailey? I have no idea. This could go a lot of ways.

yup, that's pretty much the reason he's one of the highest ceiling, lowest floor guys in the draft. though i don't think he plays THAT stupid of basketball. it's certainly not always smart, but i don't think it's outlier stupid.

my gut is that if ace busts, it will be because his handle never gets there, he can't beat anybody off the bounce, can't create for himself or teammates and he doesn't shoot it well enough from three on the catch to even be an effective 3 and d guy.

[JMAC3]

If his biggest worry is handle as an 18 yr old 6-8 forward than I think that is a pretty good prospect. That is 100% something that can be fixed with a lot of reps and hard work.

The fact that he is willing to work on it in games and shows flashes of the handle is a really positive sign to me.

[NO-KG-AI]

Never underestimate outlier physical talent and skill.
Never over-estimate guys that often play stupid basketball.

So…. I guess never over-underestimate Bailey? I have no idea. This could go a lot of ways.

Is he outlier physical talent though? If he’s above the league average, by how much?

If his biggest worry is handle as an 18 yr old 6-8 forward than I think that is a pretty good prospect. That is 100% something that can be fixed with a lot of reps and hard work.

The fact that he is willing to work on it in games and shows flashes of the handle is a really positive sign to me.

Everything can be worked on, but creativity and fluidity with a live dribble is probably the rarest thing we see grow for prospects that struggle with it.

[tmorgan]

Never underestimate outlier physical talent and skill.
Never over-estimate guys that often play stupid basketball.

So…. I guess never over-underestimate Bailey? I have no idea. This could go a lot of ways.

Is he outlier physical talent though? If he’s above the league average, by how much?

If his biggest worry is handle as an 18 yr old 6-8 forward than I think that is a pretty good prospect. That is 100% something that can be fixed with a lot of reps and hard work.

The fact that he is willing to work on it in games and shows flashes of the handle is a really positive sign to me.

Everything can be worked on, but creativity and fluidity with a live dribble is probably the rarest thing we see grow for prospects that struggle with it.

He’s not Zion explosive or Ja explosive, certainly. I guess I meant from a prospect perspective, not the NBA populace. He can jump, and looks like he has a solid frame for strength growth. He gets up quick, good arm length. He’s going to be a better rebounder than JSJ, for example. Outlier was a bit strong, agreed.