In the past 20 years, the worst team has gotten 3 top picks.

Malinhion · Post #1 » by **Malinhion** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 3:53 pm

In 2004, Magic got Dwight Howard
In 2003, Cavs tied Nuggets, who went 1/3
In 1990, the Nets by one game

I considered running a regression statistic between the teams who finished with the worst five records and who got the top five picks. But this is pretty self-explanatory.

As a Heat fan, I am shocked and dismayed. But if the fix is in, I'm sure Stern wants to send Wade some help.

I don't mean for this to be a conspiracy-theory thread. I actually hate those, but speculate away if you must. I just mean to point out that people complaining of tanking act like the NBA doesn't have a decent system in place to counteract the effect. But it does.

So get off Stern's case.

jefe · Post #2 » by **jefe** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:27 pm

Malinhion wrote:In 2004, Magic got Dwight Howard
In 2003, Cavs tied Nuggets, who went 1/2
In 1990, the Nets by one game

I considered running a regression statistic between the teams who finished with the worst five records and who got the top five picks. But this is pretty self-explanatory.

As a Heat fan, I am shocked and dismayed. But if the fix is in, I'm sure Stern wants to send Wade some help.

I don't mean for this to be a conspiracy-theory thread. I actually hate those, but speculate away if you must. I just mean to point out that people complaining of tanking act like the NBA doesn't have a decent system in place to counteract the effect. But it does.

So get off Stern's case.

Nuggets actually picked third; the Pistons via the Grizz picked second.

As a Grizz fan, I know this "stat" far too well: and if the fix is in, then the Grizz get number 1 - we basically set up a Lakers/Celtics finals (if not this year, then within the next 2).

OrangeBull · Post #3 » by **OrangeBull** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:35 pm

People should just look at getting the worst record as a lock for a top 4 pick from now on, quit bitching, you have a 25% chance.

Malinhion · Post #4 » by **Malinhion** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:52 pm

jefe wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Nuggets actually picked third; the Pistons via the Grizz picked second.

As a Grizz fan, I know this "stat" far too well: and if the fix is in, then the Grizz get number 1 - we basically set up a Lakers/Celtics finals (if not this year, then within the next 2).

Dumars is such a good GM that I like to grant him a pardon for Darko.

Post #5 » by **Spykes** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 5:20 pm

OrangeBull wrote:People should just look at getting the worst record as a lock for a top 4 pick from now on, quit bitching, you have a 25% chance.

They do have a 25% chance of getting the #1. However, that means they a 75% chance of picking #2-4.

Teams with the worst record need to just take solace in the fact that they're at least guaranteed a Top 4 pick.

As a Blazer fan, we've been on the good and bad side of this statistic in the past 2 years. The Blazers owned the worst record in the 05-06 season with just 21 wins. Lottery day: Portland drops from 1st to 4th. The following summer, Portland has 32 wins and they jump from 6th to 1st. There's a reason it's called a "lottery".

Needless to say, I'll be very surprised if the Heat actually end up with the #1 pick this summer.

prefuse73 · Post #6 » by **prefuse73** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 6:16 pm

Does someone have access to a statistic that shows all the #1 picks over the past 20 years and what place, the team that drafted #1, had finished.

I thought I heard somewhere that the team that was in 4th position has one the lottery the most amount of times.

ponder276 · Post #7 » by **ponder276** » Sun Apr 13, 2008 6:21 pm

Malinhion wrote:In 2004, Magic got Dwight Howard
In 2003, Cavs tied Nuggets, who went 1/3
In 1990, the Nets by one game

I considered running a regression statistic between the teams who finished with the worst five records and who got the top five picks. But this is pretty self-explanatory.

As a Heat fan, I am shocked and dismayed. But if the fix is in, I'm sure Stern wants to send Wade some help.

I don't mean for this to be a conspiracy-theory thread. I actually hate those, but speculate away if you must. I just mean to point out that people complaining of tanking act like the NBA doesn't have a decent system in place to counteract the effect. But it does.

So get off Stern's case.

In the past 20 years, you would expect 5 top picks for the worst team (25% of 20), so 3 is not very far off, and is easily explained by random chance, not a "fix." I know this isn't really your point, but I just wanted to throw that out there for the draft conspiracy theorists.

Most people realize that tanking doesn't guarantee you the #1 pick, but it does give you a 46.5% chance of landing a top 2 pick, and a 100% chance of getting a top 4 pick, which is not too shabby.

Tanking is bad for the sport, and it's definitely pretty sh*tty what the Heat are doing, but I agree that the current lottery system, plus the massive loss in fan support, is a pretty good way to prevent tanking, and nothing more really needs to be done.

DanTown8587 · Post #8 » by **DanTown8587** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:08 am

Here we have the list of where the three worse teams have drafted

2007
Memphis (4th), Boston (5th), Milwaukee (6th)

2006
Portland (4th), New York (2nd), Atlanta (5th), Charlotte (3rd)

2005
Atlanta (2nd), Charlotte (5th), New Orleans (6th)

2004
Orlando (1st), Chicago (3rd), Washington (5th)

2003
Cleveland (1st), Denver (3rd), Toronto (4th)

2002
Chicago (2nd), Golden State (3rd), Memphis (4th)

2001
Chicago (4th), Golden State (5th), Memphis (6th)

2000
LA Clippers (3rd), Chicago (4th), Golden State (5th)

1999
Vancouver (2nd), LA Clippers (4th), Chicago (1st)

1998
Denver (3rd), Toronto (4th), Golden State (5th)

1997
Vancouver (4th), Boston (3rd), San Antonio (1st)

1996
Philadelphia (1st), TOR, VAN expansion, Milwaukee (4th), Minnesota (5th)

1995
LA Clippers (2nd), Minnesota (5th), Washington (6th)

1994
Dallas (2nd), Milwaukee (1st), Detroit (3rd), Minnesota (4th)

DanTown8587 · Post #9 » by **DanTown8587** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:47 am

Here is the teams that DID Draft Top 3 and where they came from:
2007
Portland (tie 6th), Seattle (5th), Atlanta (4th)

2006
Toronto (5th), New York (2nd), Charotte (tie 3rd)

2005
Milwaukee (6th), Atlanta (1st), Portland (5th)

2004
Orlando (1st), Charlotte (EXPAN), Chicago (3rd)

2003
Cleveland (1st), Memphis (6th), Denver (1st)

2002
Houston (5th), Chicago (1st), Golden State (3rd)

2001
Washington (3rd), LA Clippers (8th), Atlanta (5th)

2000
New Jersey (7th), Vancouver (4th), LA Clippers (3rd)

1999
Chicago (3rd), Vancouver (1st), Charlotte (13th)

1998
LA Clippers (3rd), Vancouver (4th), Denver (1st)

1997
San Antonio (3rd), Philadelphia (5th), Boston (1st)

1996
Philadelphia (1st), Toronto and Vancouver (EXP)

1995
Golden State (5th), LA Clippers (1st), Philadelphia (4th)

1994
Milwaukee (T2nd), Dallas (1st), Detroit (T2nd)

richboy · Post #10 » by **richboy** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 1:10 pm

Miami not as bad as there record. Just giving it to the worst record would reward them for tanking. A team like Seattle is actually bad. Miami with a healthy Wade, Marion, Haslem could make the playoffs in the East very easily.

Post #11 » by **BigSlam** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 1:42 pm

Great work DanTown8587.

It hurts to look back on this for me!

2005 Atlanta (2nd), Charlotte (5th), New Orleans (6th)

This slide cost us Paul or Williams

2006 Portland (4th), New York (2nd), Atlanta (5th), Charlotte (3rd)

And the year I hoped to slide so that someone else would take him too high brought us Ammo!!

DanTown8587 · Post #12 » by **DanTown8587** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 3:06 pm

BigSlam wrote:
And the year I hoped to slide so that someone else would take him too high brought us Ammo!!

No problem, but that draft was killer for you guys because you really need LA. You already had Emeka as a smallish but athletic 5 and GWallace at the 3 and to get a post guy like LA would have set you guys apart. Thats why the Blazers made that deal with Chicago. But I still never understood why you took AMMO. Either he was never going to start, you were afraid Wallace was gonna bolt or Wallace was a 2 guard, and all three of those were false. I was saying Roy, Thomas or Gay for you guys, but you went hype over hoop.