How will this draft stack up against previous years?

[Social Lubrication]

I'm having a trouble getting a feel for the overall quality of this year's crop of talent. I often hear that it's a deep draft, but you hear that almost every year. Personally, I'm having trouble getting excited about most of the prospects. I just see a lot of projects, tweeners and players with crippling flaws.

[Devilzsidewalk]

this draft is definitely a deep draft, last year picks 5-10 went: Jeff Green, Yi, Corey Brewer, Brendan Wright, Noah, Hawes

I wouldn't take any of those guys over Donte Greene, Roy Hibbert, or DJ Augustin, and there's a chance that none of that trio goes in the top 10 this draft

[ponder276]

this draft is definitely a deep draft, last year picks 5-10 went: Jeff Green, Yi, Corey Brewer, Brendan Wright, Noah, Hawes

I wouldn't take any of those guys over Donte Greene, Roy Hibbert, or DJ Augustin, and there's a chance that none of that trio goes in the top 10 this draft

You are falling into the trap of overrating players pre-draft. Greene and Hibbert could easily, easily be total busts, and Augustin could be the next Jameer Nelson. I feel that this draft will be much LESS deep than last years. The 2007 draft had pretty much nothing but solid NBA players from pick 1 to the mid 20s. Of the top 24 picks, I only see 4 not being locks to be at least solid rotation players on their team (top 8 in minutes on their team):

- Corey Brewer: hard to say, could easily be a starter, or a bust
- Acie Law: I feel he'll be a bust, another Juan Dixon
- Marco Belinelli: again, could be a solid contributor or a bust
- Jason Smith: maybe not quite a top 8 player? Hard to say

And that's it. I really, really don't see the 08 draft being anywhere close to as deep as the 07 draft.

[Devilzsidewalk]

you make a good point, but as a counter-point I want you to remember what a wise man once said:
"meesa jar jar binks, meesa your humble servant"

[Cammo101]

Deeper than most of the last few drafts, but less top heavy.

[cdash]

this draft is definitely a deep draft, last year picks 5-10 went: Jeff Green, Yi, Corey Brewer, Brendan Wright, Noah, Hawes

I wouldn't take any of those guys over Donte Greene, Roy Hibbert, or DJ Augustin, and there's a chance that none of that trio goes in the top 10 this draft

Hibbert? Really? How much have you drank today?

I think its a solid draft, but in the end I think last year's will be a little better.

[DanTown8587]

This compares just slightly beneath the top of the draft last year (Oden-Durant-Horford is better than Rose-Beasley-Mayo) but in this draft you will get great value outside the lottery, where as the lottery teams really don't get that much better a pick. For example, a guy like Chris Douglas Roberts is going to be a very good outside the top 20 player. But I don't know if a team picking 8-12 is going to get a vastly better SG prospect.

Seattle could have a great draft in terms of value, getting a possible top 3 pick then using a mid 20s pick to complete the team.

[Silver Man]

This is the deepest draft since LeBrons draft enough said.

[cdash]

Didnt people say that about the draft last year? I still think that when its all said and done that last years' draft will be superior.

[GSW2K4]

I'd say somewhere in between the 2006 and 2007 drafts.

There doesn't seem to be a player in this year's draft who will singlehandedly change his team's fortunes, no Finals MVP candidates. Oden and Durant qualify as that in my opinion meaning 2007 is deeper in terms of players you can build around.

The top 8 this year are solid contributors though. There will be the typical drop off in the mid-range picks, but I think some solid talent will be available in the 20s and the second round. (This is all based on Draftexpress projections right now)

What makes this draft deceiving is that there are many bonafide future stars that jump out, although there are plenty of rotation players available. Rose and Beasley are definitely all-star caliber, but after that it's hard to say. Mayo is not a sure thing to me.

If 2003 is the gold standard for this decade and 2000 among the worst ever, this draft is average and a shrewd GM will really be able to help out his team with a combination of good scouting and draft day trades.

[corwin]

I thought the 06 draft had about 40 NBA level players before the draft. I'd say this year's draft is about the same. I don't think the talent level in the 10-25 range is much different than the talent from 3-10 though. This will make it hard for teams to sell off those better picks to get much extra value.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

-Not top heavy
-A LOT of role players will be selected from 15-30
-Half the second-rounders would be lucky to get drafted in any other year
-Five or six rookies will start right away
-At least three tiers of players in the first 20 picks, and the tiers are very steep

[GSW2K4]

I thought the 06 draft had about 40 NBA level players before the draft. I'd say this year's draft is about the same. I don't think the talent level in the 10-25 range is much different than the talent from 3-10 though. This will make it hard for teams to sell off those better picks to get much extra value.

I want to agree with you that 10-25 isn't much different than 3-10 except I just see a LOT of gambles 10-25...maybe 8-25. A lot of young "upside" guys most of whom probably won't pan out, multiple tweeners, and an undersized pg.

So while any one of those guys 10-25 could pan out in the right situation, there are just so many projects that it's hard to tell.

[dunkonu21]

This draft seems weak to me personally.

[Sarlonus]

I see a lot of good role-players and people that will make solid starters or good 6th men. I am not sure if it will produce a superstar but I think they have valuable pieces on any team. The main problem with the draft is a lot of players have huge question marks especially about what position they will fit in the NBA.

In terms of combo guards, this draft is stacked. This means a lot of teams will at least get a spark off the bench type player. If they can solidify themselves as one position, they greatly improve their chance of being a starter.

Also there are a fair amount of combo forwards (PF/SF tweeners). Again, these type of players might be better off coming off the bench.

Finally, there are several interesting big men prospects too. When you project the 09 class, there doesn't seem to be as many centers in next years draft because of all the big men that declared early this year.

[Mylie10]

First 2 picks are good.

From Love on down Assuming he's around ten, then it's very strong if you do your homework.

There are plenty of second rounders who can fill a need this year.

[TheOGJabroni]

There doesn't seem to be a player in this year's draft who will singlehandedly change his team's fortunes, no Finals MVP candidates. Oden and Durant qualify as that in my opinion meaning 2007 is deeper in terms of players you can build around.

I don't know man. I really think at least Rose could have a Chris Paul type of effect on his team. He's that good.

Beasley, on the other hand, I'm not so sure. To me he seems to be somewhat of a cross between Antawn Jamison and Carmelo Anthony. Clearly, both are terrific players, but are they franchise changes, not really. But I do think he possesses skills that each of those two players lack, so maybe one day he develops a killer instinct and is that franchise player. Who knows.

[_BBIB_]

This draft has 4 players with bonafide star potential in:

Beasley
Rose
Mayo
Jordan


Maybe Bayless too.


But the odds of all of those guys reaching it is another story