Bol Bol

[Goudelock]

Part of my sees Bol Bol and sees a massive bust who has a low motor, and gets killed by everyone on defense because he's either too weak or too slow to defend players.

But then the other part of me sees what Clyde sees, which is a future superstar. He's got some serious offensive skills that you just don't see in 7 footers.

[G R E Y]

That Bol's thread has more pages than any other player's speaks to how divisive a selection he is. It's true his O skill set is intriguing, and it's also true that the game sample size and going up against air make for the edited version of a video with all the bad parts excluded. To those who've watched more of him, I concede the point, but in addition to the injury and subsequent loss of weight and questions about his body's ability to carry more of it, the other questions I have are about who he could guard (not just strength but defensive awareness and hustle), his sideways mobility (which you don't see any of in vertical up and down pro day workouts), shot quickness, and awareness of where to be on the court on O off ball.

If I were a lottery team looking to improve the overall floor, Bol is too high a risk to do that. A team that is more established and can better absorb losing him rather than having him as a potentially crumbling cornerstone will probably take the risk. Or a lottery team with a too eager FO. His question marks extend beyond his health, but even this has not been answered adequately. I like what OP said about offering him an FA contract once he is more established. He has a lot of questions to answer, and these pro day-type of workouts (which I can't really see the benefit of for GMs; surely they'd rather see the players be put to the test in their own workouts against actual competition) don't really answer many by highlighting what we already know he excels at.

[BlazersBroncos]

I don't understand this idea that lotto teams should play it safe and go for guys that have higher floors.

This is a superstars league. You see a guy that has as unique, and potentially unstoppable, of an offensive skillset like Bol and you take him.

I worry about his personality in relation to drive, and his injury, and even after those two worries, still believe he is worthy of a top-3 selection. He is a true unicorn who, to me, is the clear cut #2 guy in this draft in terms of superstar potential. I think his floor is not nearly as low as some believe also. I would be surprised if he wasn't at least a Mehmet Okur caliber floor stretcher. On the upside, he has potential to be a player that doesn't really have a past comparison in terms of size and playing style.

[BostonCouchGM]

People bring up his weight and how he'll be a liability on defense but it doesn't make sense to me. He's a very capable defender on the perimeter due to his length and there aren't more than a handful of elite centers in the league that will dominate him down low. And as much as he may be a liability in those games against those types of centers, he will conversely be a problem for them due to his ability to hit threes and space the floor. He's not going to come into the league and play much initially. If Bamba couldn't then Bol won't. But with some added strength and experience he should be a starter. I think he can have a similar career as Porzingis. He'll never be all NBA or even an all star but he should be productive. What's that worth? Is that around a Wendell Carter? Capela? WCS? I think so. So he should be drafted in the lottery or just outside of it, by a team that can be patient. CLE, ATL, NO, and BOS are likely landing spots

[clyde21]

Bol's shooting is real, shot 45% from 3 in EYBL and followed it up by shooting 52% from 3 at Oregon (albeit 9 games). oh, shot 77% from the FT, too.

i mean, you have a 7-3 big with a 7-7 wingspan who can shoot 50% from 3, can put the ball on the floor, has a pull up, spot up and post game, who also had a similar block rate to Hayes while committing less than half the fouls.

yes, the risk is there (weak frame, injury concerns) i get it, and there is some real bust potential there...but I really really don't know how you let a guy like this drop outside the top 3 or 5...in today's NBA no less.

if I am Griff, I'm staying pat and taking Bol #4. 2 picks there means I can afford to take a risk here, and if it works, having a Zion/Bol front court is just absolutely bonkers and theoretically they are a perfect fit.

[clyde21]

That Bol's thread has more pages than any other player's speaks to how divisive a selection he is. It's true his O skill set is intriguing, and it's also true that the game sample size and going up against air make for the edited version of a video with all the bad parts excluded. To those who've watched more of him, I concede the point, but in addition to the injury and subsequent loss of weight and questions about his body's ability to carry more of it, the other questions I have are about who he could guard (not just strength but defensive awareness and hustle), his sideways mobility (which you don't see any of in vertical up and down pro day workouts), shot quickness, and awareness of where to be on the court on O off ball.

If I were a lottery team looking to improve the overall floor, Bol is too high a risk to do that. A team that is more established and can better absorb losing him rather than having him as a potentially crumbling cornerstone will probably take the risk. Or a lottery team with a too eager FO. His question marks extend beyond his health, but even this has not been answered adequately. I like what OP said about offering him an FA contract once he is more established. He has a lot of questions to answer, and these pro day-type of workouts (which I can't really see the benefit of for GMs; surely they'd rather see the players be put to the test in their own workouts against actual competition) don't really answer many by highlighting what we already know he excels at.

usually the lotto is when you are trying to get that superstar type potential possibly, otherwise all you would see more jrs and seniors go in the lotto because of their higher floor typically.

[No-Man]

It's not about playing it safe vs. swinging for the fences, you can swing, you just do it with guys where the upside is at least a possibility

Bol is a no-go, you take a chance on him early 2nd just because at that point who cares, but lotto? GTFO

[clyde21]

It's not about playing it safe vs. swinging for the fences, you can swing, you just do it with guys where the upside is at least a possibility

Bol is a no-go, you take a chance on him early 2nd just because at that point who cares, but lotto? GTFO

lotto? lol...top 5.

[Ruzious]

I think he's got the 3rd or 4th highest upside in the draft, but the injury risks make it hard to pick him in the top 10. I still think he'll go before 15.

[G R E Y]

To BlazersBroncos's point above, it is a superstar league, but they alone cannot get it done - see GSW this year, and that's not a slight against GSW, just that without two huge starters' impact, Curry could only do so much with the other Warriors. People say swing for the fences, but are lured more by thoughts of KD and forget the cautionary tale of Oden. For sure you consider the talent, but you must count the cost. Giannis was raw, but the questions about him were not what they are for Bol, and this was before I knew that there are questions about his motor/effort? Even unicorns like Porz make a team reconsider whether keeping him is viable, but Bol comes with big question marks.

ToBostonCouchGM's point above, length and great D do not necessarily correlate. Sure you can't teach height/wing span, but if there is a question about his drive on the D end, that's a red mark. As I've said before, what lateral movement has he shown? What awareness on D and O off ball? It could have been seen by those who've watched him more, but as I understand from the readings I've been doing on prospects, there are concerns. If there is a question about his putting on weight and for his frame to be able to carry it, that's a red mark. He's built like a match stick, and will get muscled out badly when beaten on the dribble.

It's not about settling for a lesser pick for lotto teams but about long term sustainability of improvement. If that is a goal, it's hard to see Bol being that guy given the question marks, even with the talent flashes he has shown. I'd take a slightly less talented but bulldog effort guy 10/10, but that's why I'm just a poster on a forum and not a FO held to account for this decision.

That Bol's thread has more pages than any other player's speaks to how divisive a selection he is. It's true his O skill set is intriguing, and it's also true that the game sample size and going up against air make for the edited version of a video with all the bad parts excluded. To those who've watched more of him, I concede the point, but in addition to the injury and subsequent loss of weight and questions about his body's ability to carry more of it, the other questions I have are about who he could guard (not just strength but defensive awareness and hustle), his sideways mobility (which you don't see any of in vertical up and down pro day workouts), shot quickness, and awareness of where to be on the court on O off ball.

If I were a lottery team looking to improve the overall floor, Bol is too high a risk to do that. A team that is more established and can better absorb losing him rather than having him as a potentially crumbling cornerstone will probably take the risk. Or a lottery team with a too eager FO. His question marks extend beyond his health, but even this has not been answered adequately. I like what OP said about offering him an FA contract once he is more established. He has a lot of questions to answer, and these pro day-type of workouts (which I can't really see the benefit of for GMs; surely they'd rather see the players be put to the test in their own workouts against actual competition) don't really answer many by highlighting what we already know he excels at.

usually the lotto is when you are trying to get that superstar type potential possibly, otherwise all you would see more jrs and seniors go in the lotto because of their higher floor typically.

Well with Bol the potential is peppered with more question marks than your typical prospect who has holes to fill in his game. For sure about your point with juniors and seniors higher in the draft, and that is valid. Teams are picking for upside, but to that end, responsible teams also do deep dives into players' backgrounds, medicals, for potential red flags to weigh what they'll be dealing with. Some will pass because they weigh certain features more, some will take a risk because they want the home run unicorn in their possession.

If Bol had a whole season's worth of game, we'd get a more fleshed out picture of both pros and cons. Maybe he'd be a top 3 pick, or maybe other facets of his game would get more exposed. But that's what is up for debate. I'm not sold despite the impressive talent in a few minutes' worth of video, but what I do know for sure is that someone here will be right in hindsight.

[No-Man]

I think he's got the 3rd or 4th highest upside in the draft, but the injury risks make it hard to pick him in the top 10. I still think he'll go before 15.

even if you guarantee me regular health I don't think I buy the upside, the guy is just not built for team ball, and people marvel at his skills without going in detail and analyzing how much of it really translates functionally

he has really good touch but his mechanics are a mess for example

[Ruzious]

I think he's got the 3rd or 4th highest upside in the draft, but the injury risks make it hard to pick him in the top 10. I still think he'll go before 15.

even if you guarantee me regular health I don't think I buy the upside, the guy is just not built for team ball, and people marvel at his skills without going in detail and analyzing how much of it really translates functionally

he has really good touch but his mechanics are a mess for example

You should probably think through why people marvel at his skills. It's because nobody with his length has ever had those skills. That's kind of significant, don't ya think.

[No-Man]

I think he's got the 3rd or 4th highest upside in the draft, but the injury risks make it hard to pick him in the top 10. I still think he'll go before 15.

even if you guarantee me regular health I don't think I buy the upside, the guy is just not built for team ball, and people marvel at his skills without going in detail and analyzing how much of it really translates functionally

he has really good touch but his mechanics are a mess for example

You should probably think through why people marvel at his skills. It's because nobody with his length has ever had those skills. That's kind of significant, don't ya think.

Again, how they translate it's more important, how he can leverage them, does he have the IQ to know when to use them and how? even a baseline of it

And his skills are overrated, the guy is great in an open gym solo workout, but avoids contact in games

[Ruzious]

even if you guarantee me regular health I don't think I buy the upside, the guy is just not built for team ball, and people marvel at his skills without going in detail and analyzing how much of it really translates functionally

he has really good touch but his mechanics are a mess for example

You should probably think through why people marvel at his skills. It's because nobody with his length has ever had those skills. That's kind of significant, don't ya think.

Again, how they translate it's more important, how he can leverage them, does he have the IQ to know when to use them and how? even a baseline of it

And his skills are overrated, the guy is great in an open gym solo workout, but avoids contact in games

Have you looked at his stats when he did play in games? I mean... since he hasn't played in the NBA, of course there will be questions. That's not exactly a revelation.

[No-Man]

I have watched every play basically, I also know who he played, including 6-7 teams out of 9 whose tallest player was around 6-8 (Cuse has Chukwu but he doesn't play much and Dolezaj is 6-9/6-10 but weighs 180)

And the games he played against real size (Iowa, TSouthern) he struggled mightly on D and the Iowa bigs really beasted him, Trayvon Reed did a number on him, although Bol obviously had a great offensive game as well

It's not just about haven't played in the NBA lol, you can get an idea of how things that he does would translate

[clyde21]

skills not translatable? pretty laughable. shooting is definitely translatable and I'm not just talking his pull-up game or spot-up shooting 3s, I'm talking about his already sophisticated post game and mid-range repertoire, including a virtually unblockable release point. his length, shot blocking/help defense is definitely translatable. his mobility at his size will be even more translatable given that he'll see even more space in the NBA than he did at Oregon (where he was on pace to have a monster season, btw). his FT shooting translatable. his ability to alter shots without fouling is also translatable.

and really, haven't seen anything to suggest he has sub-par BBIQ. he takes bad shots sometimes but I think that's bc he's confident in what he can do more so than him being a dumb bball player...dude averaging 3.5bpg while ONLY fouling 2 times a game...compare that JJJ who was fouling out every other game and Hayes who averaged 5 fouls game while barely outpacing Bol in blocks...

his biggest issues: post 1v1 defense, he doesn't have the strength nor frame to handle the bullys in the paint, and obviously propensity for injury especially with his lower body.

if that's your issue cool, I get it, but the skills are easily projectable to the NBA, not sure what ur talking about here.

[No-Man]

skills not translatable? pretty laughable. shooting is definitely translatable and I'm not just talking his pull-up game or spot-up shooting 3s, I'm talking about his already sophisticated post game and mid-range repertoire, including a virtually unblockable release point. his length, shot blocking/help defense is definitely translatable. his mobility at his size will be even more translatable given that he'll see even more space in the NBA than he did at Oregon (where he was on pace to have a monster season, btw). his FT shooting translatable. his ability to alter shots without fouling is also translatable.

and really, haven't seen anything to suggest he has sub-par BBIQ. he takes bad shots sometimes but I think that's bc he's confident in what he can do more so than him being a dumb bball player...dude averaging 3.5bpg while ONLY fouling 2 times a game...compare that JJJ who was fouling out every other game and Hayes who averaged 5 fouls game while barely outpacing Bol in blocks...

his biggest issues: post 1v1 defense, he doesn't have the strength nor frame to handle the bullys in the paint, and obviously propensity for injury especially with his lower body.

if that's your issue cool, I get it, but the skills are easily projectable to the NBA, not sure what ur talking about here.

Man, his release point is trash, that **** looks like a launcher, has a ton of horizontal force/momentum in his jumper, he is not Aldridge, the release looks like a war machine

He avoids contact, on both ends, his mobility is overstated, he has no burst whatsoever, and is pretty slow, he can bend okay and does fine laterally, but if you are making him hedge he is gonna get killed

He def plays the game at his own pace and does kinda whatever he wants to, doesn't play in a team constrcut and every report about his work ethic it's pretty bad, no surprise since he dropped like 30-35lbs in 10months despite being injured and limited in terms of obv running etc

His biggest issues are his shot mechanics, lack of physicality, overall IQ, and terrible straight lane speed or ability to react/move, and defend in space, where he is all over the place and looks to be terrible

[clyde21]

doesn't play in a team construct? weird. you want to look at Oregon's DRTG when he was on the court this year vs. when he was off?

86.7 Drtg....right there with JJJ.

[clyde21]

Bol: 2 fouls per 3.2 blocks

Hayes: 5.2 fouls per 3.4 blocks

WCJ: 3.8 fouls per 2.7 blocks

JJJ: 5.3 fouls per 5.0 blocks

[clyde21]

Bol: 2.4 TOs / 33.4 usage rate

Hayes: 1.4 TOs / 17.2 usage rate

WCJ: 2.7 TOs / 22.8 usage rate

JJJ: 2.9 TOs / 23.5 usage rate