Hypothetical Question

[azcatz11]

Let's say you're the GM of a random NBA team and have the #1 pick in the draft. You have good job security.

You have 2 options and only these 2.

Both of these players are 6'8 wings with the same measurables and they're both 19.

Option 1: 5% chance of GOAT career / 15% chance of average career / 80% chance of bust

Option 2: 90% chance of solid all star career / 10% chance of average NBA starter career

[EMG518]

Option 2 easily

I would adjust those percentages to make it a more difficult decision.

[SNPA]

Depends on how long you want to be a GM. Option two if you want a long career.

[azcatz11]

Option 2 easily

I would adjust those percentages to make it a more difficult decision.

What would be your suggestion? I was thinking if GOAT career was too high (like 10% or more) that would be the easy choice

[clyde21]

#2 pretty easy, 90% chance of not even getting a contributer is just too steep, while #2 guarantees me an avg player, with a 90% chance of being an all star

[azcatz11]

#2 pretty easy, 90% chance of not even getting a contributer is just too steep, while #2 guarantees me an avg player, with a 90% chance of being an all star

I edited my OP to reflect new percentages.

I guess the point of the thread is how high to value ceiling vs. floor

[EMG518]

Option 2 easily

I would adjust those percentages to make it a more difficult decision.

What would be your suggestion? I was thinking if GOAT career was too high (like 10% or more) that would be the easy choice

From these two options, if you want option 1 to be two extremes presenting higher upside and lower floor due to the bust potential I would adjust to something like

30% Goat, 30% average career , 40% bust

[Marcus]

#2 pretty easy, 90% chance of not even getting a contributer is just too steep, while #2 guarantees me an avg player, with a 90% chance of being an all star

I edited my OP to reflect new percentages.

I guess the point of the thread is how high to value ceiling vs. floor

in order to fully justify a high ceiling pick compared to a high floor pick all things being equal the existing floor of the high ceiling pick has to be at least measureable to the high floor lower ceiling prospect. There has to at least be a baseline to start with to where the floor on the high ceiling pick is workable. Can't be a gap that large between GOAT and out the league. Especially sitting next to a surefire multiple all-star level player.