2021 NBA Draft, Part 2

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I see my buddy, Ruzious, mods this thread! Super discussion. I'm just now looking at this past draft.

https://www.nba.com/news/2021-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60

Very early on there are some clear outliers relative to when they were drafted,

Foremost, Jared Butler at 40. He looks like a good NBA starter to me. Going out on an early limb I compare him with past steals Jarrett Jack (22nd pick, 2005), Tony Parker (28th, 2001), Gilbert Arenas (31st, 2001), Spencer Dinwiddie (38th, 2014), Isaiah Thomas (60th, 2011).

Also outliers early on, the two young men selected immediately after Washington selected Corey Kispert: Alperen Sengun and Trey Murphy. Each has IMO been arguably as good or better than top-5 selection players. ROTY possibilities... Interestingly, each were draft day trades. ** I'm reminded of Kobe for Vlade Divac--but I really am interested to see how all four teams will view their dealings a year or two or 5 years from now**

Josh Primo seems like a scoring beast, a monster of a good player.

Who's been more impressive than Scottie Barnes? Toronto seems to have selected correctly.

On the negative side I see Franz Wagner is going to take a while.

Josh Suggs might not become a transformational player, but I must wait on this one. No rush to judgment. Just as with Franz he projected as a defensive whiz kid. He's got two-way tools. He's relatively young and inexperienced compared to Jared Butler,

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If I’m being honest part of what bothers me about Cade as the top pick is his demeanor. It doesn’t seem like he cares much about winning or losing. It feels like he’s just trying to make sure he looks cool out there.

If he led Oklahoma State to its best season in however many years without caring about winning or losing, imagine how good he could be if someone lit that fire under him!

Athleticism. I don't think there's a thing wrong with his demeanor. He competes. I just do not see him as nearly the athlete that others are.

Cade might get first team all rookie but I'd wager he won't finish higher than 3rd in ROTY.

I failed to mention Evan Mobley in my last post. I think in three years he's going to rate better by a good margin than Cade. Both will star but I than Mobley will become a superstar.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Since many of you are Green 1 guys. Let me show you Hollinger's take on him from behind the athletic paywall. He actually doesnt even have Green ranked on his big board until number 5. Its as if some people dont scout from youtube highlights.

5. Jalen Green, SG, G League Ignite

A medium-risk, high-reward type pick, Green is a skinny, athletic shooting guard with blast-off quickness and elite leaping ability. You can’t teach this stuff, and it’s why he’s a certain high lottery pick. He’s the one guy who made the most “holy ****” plays in this draft, with fast-twitch hops reminiscent of Zach LaVine.

Green got off to a slow start in the G League but really picked up his play toward the end, figuring out how to take advantage of his speed and leaping ability to get to the rim. His weaknesses right now are all skill-based. He has to play off the ball because his handle isn’t advanced; he frequently lost his dribble making relatively basic moves in pick-and-roll. His shooting is decent but hardly great, and he relies too much on stepback 3s because he lacks advanced maneuvers with the rock. As a passer, he’s capable of basic reads, but that part of his game is still coming around. He’s not selfish; he just doesn’t have the whole picture yet.

He is decent defensively but not exceptional. Green should be able to dart into passing lines more often than he does, and his first slide actually looks slow — it’s surprising how often he was beaten off the dribble. However, he competed, and he has the athleticism to surprise shooters with shot challenges.

Green is only 19 and was a good-but-not-great G League player last season, so we’re talking about a developmental pick here. But his ceiling is high enough to make it worthwhile.

Jalen Green or Josh Primo? Who do you like better?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm so bewildered that people talk about Cade as some "brilliant passer" with "amazing feel." Did we watch the same guy?

He averaged 6.2 turnovers per 100 possessions (7.0 in conference play) with a 0.86 ast/to ratio. You can chalk that up to "bad teammates" all you'd like but I'm really not buying that as an excuse because 1) tons of prospects play with bad teammates in college and 2) watching the film, you see how many come from inaccurate passes and poor decisions. Most of his assists come from pretty basic reads. I'm not saying Cade is a bad passer. He's a good passer for a wing but he absolutely should not be a primary ballhandler at the next level. Tiny Damion Mitchell really gave a glimpse at what it might look like if Cade is your offensive orchestrator in the NBA.

Scottie Barnes is a clearly better passer than Cade and even bigger than him, yet few people talk about him as being some kind of basketball genius like people do with Cade.

I will call Scottie a genius.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm so bewildered that people talk about Cade as some "brilliant passer" with "amazing feel." Did we watch the same guy?

He averaged 6.2 turnovers per 100 possessions (7.0 in conference play) with a 0.86 ast/to ratio. You can chalk that up to "bad teammates" all you'd like but I'm really not buying that as an excuse because 1) tons of prospects play with bad teammates in college and 2) watching the film, you see how many come from inaccurate passes and poor decisions. Most of his assists come from pretty basic reads. I'm not saying Cade is a bad passer. He's a good passer for a wing but he absolutely should not be a primary ballhandler at the next level. Tiny Damion Mitchell really gave a glimpse at what it might look like if Cade is your offensive orchestrator in the NBA.

Scottie Barnes is a clearly better passer than Cade and even bigger than him, yet few people talk about him as being some kind of basketball genius like people do with Cade.

I will call Scottie a genius.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Don't forget Cade was the number one prospect and known for his passing from AAU,highschool, and the Fiba already. If Cade played on a team like Gonzaga his ast/to ratio number would of course be better

I agree though he's best served playing with another primary ball-handler. Hopefully, Killian turns into that guy.

What you see here isnt what its going to look like for Cade at the next level.

Cade played on one of the most stacked high school basketball teams of all time against competition that was terribly outmatched. Cade's playmaking in college is a much more important indicator of whether he has NBA point ability than his high school days.

And sure on a stacked Gonzaga team playing his optimal position he probably would have been able to post something like 2-2-2.5 apg with a positive ast/to ratio, but that still doesn't convince me he's more than a good passing wing, and most prospects play with bad teammates in college that do a lot of what that video is demonstrating. It's worth noting that Oklahoma State actually played slightly better with Cade off the floor, so I'm not buying that Cade played with some particularly noteworthy awful cast. The team also generated a 53.8% 2P with him off the court vs 51.3% with him on, while seemingly ending up with better looks when he wasn't the one initiating. And the high turnovers are hardly the only issue. He has weak handles and he has poor burst, as well.

24.5 ppg, 7.5 rebs , 4.5 asts , 50% fg 44% 3pt ?

1-1 W-L split against a significantly better team who was the best team in college ? Throw some better players out there around him he’d probably get an additional 1-2 assists on top of that.

Could be worse

His turnovers are bad for sure, a lot come from situations where he leaves his feet to pass or offensive fouls where he uses his off arm or shoulder. Some of his turnovers though were from the fact he was being regularly
doubled or triple teamed on a small court with bad spacing.
Even with his high turnovers, his ast/to % is pretty misleading. Analytically his team mates missed a statistically improbable amount of make-able shots and potential assists. With competent team mates this season his assist to turnover ratio would’ve been somewhere between 1-1.2 and it would be a totally different story here.
I will be very surprised if he doesn’t average 5-6 assists per game as a rookie.

So let's break this down. The statline is nice, but I never said he wasn't a good college player. The goal is to determine how good of an NBA player he'll be.

PPG aren't actually a strong predictor of NBA success. And neither are RPG because defensive rebounds don't seem to matter much in the equation, with so many being uncontested. Height, Age, ORB%, AST/TO, FTAr, 3PAr, FT%, and STL% are some important metrics. Cade checks the right boxes on some of them and then others, not so much. Based on his FT% and 3PAr, and just watching his ability to make threes at a high rate off the bounce, it's pretty clear he's a great shooter and that's something that will for sure translate. His free throw attempt rate is pretty good, which usually correlates well with NBA scoring ability. He's tall. Age wise, he's a little older for a freshman but it's not like he's old as far as draft prospects. His STL% is solid but nothing crazy.

Moving on to more concerning issues, his AST/TO is bad and not at all reflective of a player who can be a lead playmaker in the NBA. I've already addressed why chalking it up to teammates is a faulty argument above. We can also go through game footage if you'd like for this one. His ORB% is just awful for prospects his size, which suggests he won't handle NBA athleticism and physicality well. He posted a 104.2 ORTG on 28.6 usage with 46.1% shooting inside the arc, something that's concerning considering he was able to hit 3s at such a great rate. It's not surprising though because he's just not a very strong ballhandler, his playmaking/decision making in traffic isn't great, he has trouble getting all the way to the rim against guys who look like NBA-caliber defenders, and once he gets there he can't elevate/finish well. As the season went on (and the competition improved), Cade himself also adjusted his game, with his drive rate steadily and noticeably declining, again indicating a player who struggles to get past quality defenders. Furthermore, despite his size, I very much doubt he's going to be a good defender. He was bad in college making effective close outs and being able to defend perimeter players in general because of his lacking foot speed and reaction time, and despite being 220 pounds, he was physically overmatched against bigs. The low ORB% also suggests he won't be a strong defensive rebounder in the league.

Finally, to hammer the point on playmaking, Cade posted above 5 assists last season twice in 27 games. One was an 8 assist (3 turnovers) outing against 12-18, 338/347th ranked defense Oakland. And the other was a 7 assist (4 turnovers) performance against 2-22, 319/347th ranked defense Iowa State. It's not surprising that his best playmaking performances came against some of the worst defenses in the country.

I want to make it clear I'm not saying Cade is a terrible prospect. He clearly brings some very good things to the table, and I would say his floor is one of the highest in the draft because a great shooter with good size and above average playmaking for a wing will have a hard time not being a good starter in the NBA. I just don't think he's number one pick material and I don't think his upside is very high given his limitations which are going to be difficult to overcome. He's 6th on my big board behind Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Green, Sengun, and despite being lower on my board because of higher bust potential, I think a guy like Sharife Cooper actually has more star potential than Cade, as well.

Sharife Cooper might end up the biggest steal of the draft.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Most Toronto fans have turned down #7, Wiseman and #14 for #4

Wow. That’s nuts. Gs couldn’t and wouldn’t offer that much anyway. No way they’d give wiseman away in that trade.


I think there’s a problem on this board with logical Wisman value, and for sure a problem with almost all Raptor related values in trades.

Wiseman sucks until proven otherwise.

Wiseman posted astronomical numbers in very sparse minutes at Memphis State. Doesn’t he have to be better than his rookie season projects?

Two players on the rise are Jaren Jackson Jr and Mo Bamba.

I wonder if Wiseman will improve as they are doing in time?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jalen Johnson supposedly “impressed” in recent workouts.

iirc wasn’t Jalen Johnson in the Top 5 in mocks before the college season started?

I know his stop has dropped a lot since then obviously. Several mocks I’ve seen have him as a late lottery pick (a couple even outside the lottery).

Which makes me think he could be a potential “sleeper”.

You can't be a sleeper being the RSCI #4 summer pre-senior year, #11 RSCI final prospect. After his first monstrous games in the NCAA, many were calling him the #1 pick.

A superb athlete at PF size with handles and skills to play point guard is gonna "wow" people in workouts. Had Duke been a bit better and him not quit on his team, he would be in the convo for a top 5 lock right now.

I wish my Washington Wizards had drafted Jalen Johnson instead of Corey Kispert. Instead of kispert and Isaiah Todd I think the Wizards would have been better off with Jalen Johnson and Jared Butler. Make that I'm pretty sure already they would have been better off.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Murphy is the player I missed the most on period. That guy is tremendous. I had a bias against him, apparently. For whatever reason I thought Jay Huff was a better player. Very wrong on that account.

[God Squad]

Wow. That’s nuts. Gs couldn’t and wouldn’t offer that much anyway. No way they’d give wiseman away in that trade.


I think there’s a problem on this board with logical Wisman value, and for sure a problem with almost all Raptor related values in trades.

Wiseman sucks until proven otherwise.

Wiseman posted astronomical numbers in very sparse minutes at Memphis State. Doesn’t he have to be better than his rookie season projects?

Two players on the rise are Jaren Jackson Jr and Mo Bamba.

I wonder if Wiseman will improve as they are doing in time?

Bump?.lol. Well I still don't like Wiseman and JJJ showed more than Wiseman as a rookie. Mo Bamba has always been in a weird development situation being stuck behind the likes of Vucevic. IIRC this will be his first time starting full time, but I'd agree he's being much more productive. I guess wiseman can do the same with time, but that doesn't warrant being picked second.

[DCasey91]

Murphy is the player I missed the most on period. That guy is tremendous. I had a bias against him, apparently. For whatever reason I thought Jay Huff was a better player. Very wrong on that account.

Murphy is a stud not that I’m surprised though. 3+D as advertised. Like way earlier he gave me mad OG vibes for some reason.

[clyde21]

Murphy is the player I missed the most on period. That guy is tremendous. I had a bias against him, apparently. For whatever reason I thought Jay Huff was a better player. Very wrong on that account.

what was the thought process there having Huff as a better prospect than a 6-9 dude like Murphy with shooting/ball skills?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Murphy is the player I missed the most on period. That guy is tremendous. I had a bias against him, apparently. For whatever reason I thought Jay Huff was a better player. Very wrong on that account.

what was the thought process there having Huff as a better prospect than a 6-9 dude like Murphy with shooting/ball skills?

Obviously not a whole hell of a lot. Was there a process by me? Was it even rational? Maybe I saw one bad game from Trey Murphy and maybe in that same game Huff hit an outside shot or blocked a shot.

To be specific, I actually liked Kihei Clark the point guard the most. I was impressed with him but he is mighty small

[NO-KG-AI]

I didn’t get a good look at Murphy pre-draft tbh, but I’m kinda shocked that with the premium on 3&d guys that he dropped as far as he did.

Guys that are much worse shooters and athletes get drafted much higher in the hopes they can be 3&d wings. And he’s tall and long as hell.

Had to be the age thing right? We fall in love with youth, we’re all guilty to at least some degree.

[DCasey91]

I didn’t get a good look at Murphy pre-draft tbh, but I’m kinda shocked that with the premium on 3&d guys that he dropped as far as he did.

Guys that are much worse shooters and athletes get drafted much higher in the hopes they can be 3&d wings. And he’s tall and long as hell.

Had to be the age thing right? We fall in love with youth, we’re all guilty to at least some degree.

Yep 100% agree (backed off pretty far from Kuminga, Uber young but his aptitude for the game is on the lower end, big Kelly Oubre jr).

Some youngsters just aren’t ready for the NBA game and potential vs outcome falls somewhere in the middle.

And elite 3&D prospect should be in the top 15 because basically 15 per draft actually plays meaningful NBA ball in their careers (some drafts less even).

I like theorizing for me but at the end of the day transferability is the number one key personally with gauging young prospects.

A lot of things they do in College won’t happen in the NBA.

Murphy has perfect portability, a perfect role, and the ideal skillset/size and has consistently delivered. No brainer to me (was one of the best shooters I’ve ever seen, one of the smartest if not the smartest cutter in this draft, wing size (OG vibes so much) and sneaky strong near the rim).

[DCasey91]

I knock down young prospects who are undersized for their position if they don’t show an elite trait/skill outside even being athletic.

Less and less I look for totality of stats and look for key metrics, size, transferability/portability and tangibles and intangibles that measure up to NBA ball.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Murphy is the player I missed the most on period. That guy is tremendous. I had a bias against him, apparently. For whatever reason I thought Jay Huff was a better player. Very wrong on that account.

Murphy is a stud not that I’m surprised though. 3+D as advertised. Like way earlier he gave me mad OG vibes for some reason.

He is going to have a Paul Millsap type of career. Trevor Ariza type of player but maybe better at both ends, eventually.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I knock down young prospects who are undersized for their position if they don’t show an elite trait/skill outside even being athletic.

Less and less I look for totality of stats and look for key metrics, size, transferability/portability and tangibles and intangibles that measure up to NBA ball.

Thank you because I need to refine my methods. I was better in the past IMO...But I refuse to pay for Insider or other scouting sites.

[DCasey91]

I knock down young prospects who are undersized for their position if they don’t show an elite trait/skill outside even being athletic.

Less and less I look for totality of stats and look for key metrics, size, transferability/portability and tangibles and intangibles that measure up to NBA ball.

Thank you because I need to refine my methods. I was better in the past IMO...But I refuse to pay for Insider or other scouting sites.

Already got 5 for this years draft class.

Hardy
Banchero
Holmgren
Griffin Jr
Prkacin

All will be featured heavily and are exciting talents. Size, skill, athleticism, ceiling and development all great imo.

The real fun is analyzing prospects outside the top ten

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I am familiar with Chet and Banchero