Chet Holmgren - Gonzaga

Coeur · Post #101 » by **Coeur** » Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:04 am

What so many strength of competition doubters seem to forget: that the other 330 days of the year against the best college big in Drew Timme and the rest of the Zags roster and how much better that will make him than the 30+ Nights of 30 mins against anybody in the ncaa

basketballRob · Post #102 » by **basketballRob** » Sun Feb 13, 2022 1:43 pm

Chet is very similar to Mobley. Chet might have a better touch from outside and Mobley a little more physical.

The Magic giving Suggs time off to visit with Chet and the Zags. He's going back to visit next Saturday after the rookie game.

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The Moose · Post #103 » by **The Moose** » Thu Feb 17, 2022 7:42 am

his shooting splits in his 11 conference games so far is just stupid at this point

65/56/82 shooting splits with a 78% TS, over 2 3PM's per game too

this is while anchoring one of, if not, the best defenses in NCAAB

BlazersBroncos · Post #104 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:45 pm

The Moose wrote:his shooting splits in his 11 conference games so far is just stupid at this point

65/56/82 shooting splits with a 78% TS, over 2 3PM's per game too

this is while anchoring one of, if not, the best defenses in NCAAB

Ya, he is the clear cut #1 at this point. The kid is going to be a monster as long as he stays agressive.

I really love that he plays within the flow. He isnt going ISO or forcing stuff to get stats, he plays a smart, efficient game that doesnt stop the ball. And on defense he is one of those rare talents that is so good he makes everyone else around him better (Similar to Mobley, but IDK if he has quite the instincts and footwork as Evan).

SeattleJazzFan · Post #105 » by **SeattleJazzFan** » Thu Feb 17, 2022 6:11 pm

a lot of guys in the last 50 years have played against subpar conference opponents. many of them became great NBA players. None of them did what Chet is doing right now. It's one thing to be good against bad competition, but for a frosh to be putting up historic numbers like he's doing, he deserves all the praise he gets and probably more.

Post #106 » by **GeorgeMarcus** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:22 am

21 pts, 15 rbs, 6 blocks and 3 steals against a solid San Francisco team. Chet is who I'd take #1 if I were a GM

MemphisX · Post #107 » by **MemphisX** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:18 pm

GeorgeMarcus wrote:21 pts, 15 rbs, 6 blocks and 3 steals against a solid San Francisco team. Chet is who I'd take #1 if I were a GM

I think it has been narrowed down to two candidates: Chet or Jabari. I think a lot depends on the lottery.

CptCrunch · Post #108 » by **CptCrunch** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:53 pm

Chet is the clear #1 right now despite the weak competition.

Ceiling: Chet > Paolo > Jabari

Average Outcome: Chet > Jabari > Paolo

Floor: Jabari > Paolo > Chet

I have Chet #1, Jabari #2, Paolo #3.

SeattleJazzFan · Post #109 » by **SeattleJazzFan** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:02 pm

imo, paolo is a clear third among that group at this point. gun to my head, i go jabari over chet, but i wouldn't feel great about it.

SelfishPlayer · Post #110 » by **SelfishPlayer** » Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:16 pm

Chet has his own tier as the #1 pick.

Post #111 » by **zimpy27** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 am

Chet or Jabari at 1 depending on team needs.

Big J · Post #112 » by **Big J** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:06 am

SelfishPlayer wrote:Chet has his own tier as the #1 pick.

not even close.

MemphisX · Post #113 » by **MemphisX** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:07 am

There is still a scenario in which Chet's weight is a hindrance even if it is only at the highest level. I liken it to Trae Young. Excellent player but his flaw might be a fatal flaw for team building.

MotownMadness · Post #114 » by **MotownMadness** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:32 am

basketballRob wrote:Chet is very similar to Mobley. Chet might have a better touch from outside and Mobley a little more physical.

The Magic giving Suggs time off to visit with Chet and the Zags. He's going back to visit next Saturday after the rookie game.

Read on Twitter
?t=XQFXmoySp3ZhwttiWQpuIw&s=19

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

Wonder if Suggs will come and visit him in Detroit next year 8-)

Ell Curry · Post #115 » by **Ell Curry** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:36 am

MemphisX wrote:There is still a scenario in which Chet's weight is a hindrance even if it is only at the highest level. I liken it to Trae Young. Excellent player but his flaw might be a fatal flaw for team building.

I don't think it will be, because Holmgren can play the 4 on O, so you can use the 5 spot on D to plug in whatever kind of player he thrives next to, or one that covers his weaknesses. He's the opposite of the guys who need to play 4 on D and 5 on O because they lack height or skill and end up losing value in terms of team building.

And the opposite of Trae, he's going to be great off the ball on D because he can rebound and block shots at such a high level. If he's too weak to guard on ball threats, which maybe he will be for at least a few years, you can just stick him on the worst scoring player in the frontcourt and he'll be a plus defensive player.

Very few teams have a 4 like Tatum that would maybe make Holmgren a tough fit defensively. Most of the time he'll be able to guard guys like Tobias Harris and Scottie Barnes and Bogdanovic and Crowder/Bridges and be just fine I think.

reanimator · Post #116 » by **reanimator** » Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:47 am

But Chet has concerns of his own, with an outlier poor frame being listed at 7′ 195 pounds. The most physically similar player is Aleksej Pokusevski listed at 7’0 190 pounds, who has not remotely played like an NBA 1st round draft pick through his first 1.5 seasons.

Evan Mobley’s success may inspire Chet’s confidence, but Mobley was listed 20 pounds heavier at 215. Kevin Durant could not bench press any reps at the combine, but he was listed at 204 pounds in college in spite of being 3″ shorter and 1 year 5 months younger than Chet as a freshman. Kevin Garnett (6’11 217) and Chris Bosh (6’10 210) are also examples of skinny bigs who were clearly beefier than Chet.

For a quick comparison– kenpom splits stats vs. games against top 50 teams. In Chet’s case, this would be the 5 high major games plus a road game at #72 Santa Clara. In this splits, his offense drops from 21.6 usg 128 ORtg 11.5% ast to 18.5 usg, 108 ORtg, 6.2% ast.

If you want to compare it to Mobley, he saw essentially no drop from his 33 game sample of 23.6% usg 119.4 ORtg 14.2% ast to 23.6% usg 119 ORtg 13.1% ast in a 17 game sample against Tier A teams.

https://deanondraft.com/2022/02/05/2022-midseason-draft-thoughts/

Not that these are novel thoughts, but these blurbs by Deanondraft succinctly state my concerns. That and my skepticism of him guarding away from the interior. I think the version of Chet we've seen vs Tier A teams is still a top 3 pick but its definitely not "own tier" or "historic production never seen before" status. Can't wait for the tournament.

Almost Retired · Post #117 » by **Almost Retired** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:56 am

Dear Chet. Return to Gonzaga for at least another year. You got skills kid. But the NBA is, above all else, a man's league. You ain't ready. I'm not sure you can play the "3". I'm pretty sure you can't handle the physicality playing the "4". And as for a "5"...not a chance. Get in touch with a good nutritionist and a strength coach. Get on a program. Aim for adding one pound a month of functional muscle mass emphasizing a stronger core. The NBA will eat you up and spit you out right now. You ain't ready. I don't hate you. I enjoy watching you. But stay in College for now. You will thank me later.

DirtyDez · Post #118 » by **DirtyDez** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:19 am

Almost Retired wrote:Dear Chet. Return to Gonzaga for at least another year. You got skills kid. But the NBA is, above all else, a man's league. You ain't ready. I'm not sure you can play the "3". I'm pretty sure you can't handle the physicality playing the "4". And as for a "5"...not a chance. Get in touch with a good nutritionist and a strength coach. Get on a program. Aim for adding one pound a month of functional muscle mass emphasizing a stronger core. The NBA will eat you up and spit you out right now. You ain't ready. I don't hate you. I enjoy watching you. But stay in College for now. You will thank me later.

He really hasn’t added significant weight in 3 years. Maybe it’s just a frame or gut/digestion thing? Plus he’ll be 20 before the draft. He’s 100% gone.

Rastas · Post #119 » by **Rastas** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:47 am

DirtyDez wrote:
Almost Retired wrote:Dear Chet. Return to Gonzaga for at least another year. You got skills kid. But the NBA is, above all else, a man's league. You ain't ready. I'm not sure you can play the "3". I'm pretty sure you can't handle the physicality playing the "4". And as for a "5"...not a chance. Get in touch with a good nutritionist and a strength coach. Get on a program. Aim for adding one pound a month of functional muscle mass emphasizing a stronger core. The NBA will eat you up and spit you out right now. You ain't ready. I don't hate you. I enjoy watching you. But stay in College for now. You will thank me later.

He really hasn’t added significant weight in 3 years. Maybe it’s just a frame or gut/digestion thing? Plus he’ll be 20 before the draft. He’s 100% gone.

Best to Go now , his frame will struggle adding any weight regardless of the program you put him on.
If he returns to college for another year he risks hurting himself and his future finances.
Chet's frame really has a limited time span to be of any value (NBA wise) before its worn out / breaks down etc.
Go get that multi year contract asap.

GreatWhiteStiff · Post #120 » by **GreatWhiteStiff** » Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:04 am

I wonder if a player will ever take it super cautiously (minute restriction perhaps) knowing their body can't take too much of a beating before their 2nd nba contract. Not that I think Chet will, but I can see it being a good strategy. I mean Zion's taking a lot of time off right now, but I"m not sure about his injury or if he's being cautious for that reason.