Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[The-Power]

Like I said before, if your content is good. If you make valid points that shows that you know your stuff, you did your research, you speak intelligently, you back up your points with data, you break down the prospects using actual game film, then I could care less what your qualifications are.

I actually agree with that. To me, however, the problem appears to be that your view on whether someone is making ‘valid points’ depends on the extent to which those points align with your personal assessment (or the assessment of someone you consider to be an authority). At least when it comes to the Thompson twins – perhaps it's different for other prospects.

I have seen various people in this thread making valid points, using data and numbers, and refer to what they have actually seen in games while putting it in eloquent enough and non-combative language. But you seem to dismiss all of that out of hand because you – and people who you follow for draft takes – see it differently and claim bias (for whatever reason).

If you indeed want to promote what you wrote above, you should strive to apply that logic consistently.

[peZt]

out of curiosity, what makes this thread full of cringe?

also, sticks and stones - you and rest of the world would do well to take to heart a phrase i learned when i was 5 and stop getting so offended for every reason under the sun.

Things like sharing the LinkedIn page of a Twitter dude for example cause you don't agree with their opinion. It's all kinds of embarassing stuff here, not really about the Twins but about Twitter Scouts that people disagree with.

-------

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

Let's take a look at how reliable High School rankings are.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
This was regarded as a strong class at the time. If you had drafted based on the High School rankings, you would've had a 80% chance to draft a bust in the Top 10.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019/order/true

90% bust chance

Even in one of the best High School classes of the decade, you had a higher chance of drafting a bust than not if you had drafted according to the High School rankings
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2020/order/true


Teams and GM's will keep on making the same mistakes cause of fear of missing out on a gem, but drafting out of High School / Fiba Tournaments without any Pro or College experience is the biggest guarantee of drafting a bust. Looking back at the last 10 High School Rankings, basically the average bust ratio if their ranking would've been their draft position is like 70%. You have a 70% risk of drafting a bust if you go by High School rankings. And the mock position of the Twins is essentially a High School ranking.

Unless you have a clear, can't miss prospect like Kobe, KG or LeBron or whatever where it's obvious regardless of the competition that it's a Top Tier prospect, keep your fingers off a guy who comes straight out of HS. Especially HS prospects who don't even look that good in HS. And especially if they are already 20 years old and playing HS.

This is totally the wrong line of thinking. You cannot evaluate whether the using ESPN ranking verbatim as draft order produces 80 or 90% bust. You have to think that ESPN/247/Rivals has filtered out the tens of thousands of crap ballers in high school and compiled a list of the best ones (with the top 30 usually labeled as '5 star prospect'.

And in fact this process works so well in many years, when there is a clear best player, these ranking services manages to identify that player. In this frame of reference, high school ranking is an incredible predictor of NBA sucess given that lowly ranked players almost never make to the league and even if they do rarely become stars.

Now you might be foolish enough to ask, oh CptCrunch, what about Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry and all those 3 star high school kids who became stars in the league? I would now ask you to compile the ratio of stardom between 5 star and 3 star players. If you were analytically sophisticated, I would suggest using ordinal logistic regression (or any ordinal classifier) to identify the effect of high school rank. The answer would become clear afterwards.

Why is it the wrong line of thinking? If this process works so well, then the top 10 best high school senior rankings wouldn't be full of future busts and failures. All I'm saying is that ranking guys that are in High School is not an indicator of future success. Someone can look like the best player in the country in High School and still turn out worse than someone who was ranked 20th in his High School class. You should always wait until guys have proven themselves against pros or college guys. And the mock posistion of the Twins is solely based on their performance against High School kids, and as these former ESPN Rankings show, ranking guys based on their High School performance is a complete crapshoot in terms of future NBA success.

[Hal14]

Things like sharing the LinkedIn page of a Twitter dude for example cause you don't agree with their opinion. It's all kinds of embarassing stuff here, not really about the Twins but about Twitter Scouts that people disagree with.

-------

Back to topic. It's not just Europeans that bust all the time when they are drafted solely based on their performance against 17 year olds before proving themselves with the pros. The Thompson Twins are essentially playing HS Ball.

Let's take a look at how reliable High School rankings are.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true
This was regarded as a strong class at the time. If you had drafted based on the High School rankings, you would've had a 80% chance to draft a bust in the Top 10.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019/order/true

90% bust chance

Even in one of the best High School classes of the decade, you had a higher chance of drafting a bust than not if you had drafted according to the High School rankings
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2020/order/true


Teams and GM's will keep on making the same mistakes cause of fear of missing out on a gem, but drafting out of High School / Fiba Tournaments without any Pro or College experience is the biggest guarantee of drafting a bust. Looking back at the last 10 High School Rankings, basically the average bust ratio if their ranking would've been their draft position is like 70%. You have a 70% risk of drafting a bust if you go by High School rankings. And the mock position of the Twins is essentially a High School ranking.

Unless you have a clear, can't miss prospect like Kobe, KG or LeBron or whatever where it's obvious regardless of the competition that it's a Top Tier prospect, keep your fingers off a guy who comes straight out of HS. Especially HS prospects who don't even look that good in HS. And especially if they are already 20 years old and playing HS.

This is totally the wrong line of thinking. You cannot evaluate whether the using ESPN ranking verbatim as draft order produces 80 or 90% bust. You have to think that ESPN/247/Rivals has filtered out the tens of thousands of crap ballers in high school and compiled a list of the best ones (with the top 30 usually labeled as '5 star prospect'.

And in fact this process works so well in many years, when there is a clear best player, these ranking services manages to identify that player. In this frame of reference, high school ranking is an incredible predictor of NBA sucess given that lowly ranked players almost never make to the league and even if they do rarely become stars.

Now you might be foolish enough to ask, oh CptCrunch, what about Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry and all those 3 star high school kids who became stars in the league? I would now ask you to compile the ratio of stardom between 5 star and 3 star players. If you were analytically sophisticated, I would suggest using ordinal logistic regression (or any ordinal classifier) to identify the effect of high school rank. The answer would become clear afterwards.

Why is it the wrong line of thinking? If this process works so well, then the top 10 best high school senior rankings wouldn't be full of future busts and failures. All I'm saying is that ranking guys that are in High School is not an indicator of future success. Someone can look like the best player in the country in High School and still turn out worse than someone who was ranked 20th in his High School class. You should always wait until guys have proven themselves against pros or college guys. And the mock posistion of the Twins is solely based on their performance against High School kids, and as these former ESPN Rankings show, ranking guys based on their High School performance is a complete crapshoot in terms of future NBA success.

You're wrong. People who are ranking the twins in the top 10 aren't doing it based on their performance against HS kids.

1) They've played a handful of games in the past year vs grown men pros (Mega Mozzart, there was that pro league last summer, etc.)
2) Talent is talent. A true talent evaluator can watch a prospect and see the talent they have, regardless of whether they're playing in OTE, the SEC, the EuroLeague or the YMCA down the street. The burst, the leaping ability, the ability to contort one's body, to handle the ball, the flexibility, the change of direction, the change of pace, the reaction time, the explosiveness, the lateral quickness, etc. A true scout can evaluate these types of things, regardless of the competition
3) Bryce Griggs is draft eligible this year. De'Vontes Cobbs is draft eligible this year. Jazian Gortman is draft eligible this year. Nathan MIssia-Dio turns 19 later this year. Johned Walker is draft eligible this year, Kok Yat was draft eligible in 2021! All of these guys are in the OTE. Plus, there's a bunch of other guys in OTE who are draft eligible in 2024 or 2025 but are elite talents who have gotten or will get high major offers (they're just as good, if not better than a lot of the players someone like Maxwell Lewis is playing against in the WCC, just as good, if not better than players playing on mid major schools that high major schools face during their non conference schedule. Heck, guys like Alex Sarr, Rob Dillingham, Naasir Cunningham, Jahki Howard and Somto Cyrile (all in OTE) are probably just as good (if not better) than some of the dudes playing on Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin right now.
4) Look at Shaedon Sharpe last year. We only had HS tape on him. Enes Kanter and Darius Garland barely played at all during the season before the got drafted, yet went very high. Nick Smith Jr is projected to go top 10, yet pretty much all we have on him is HS tape. He's only played in like 5 games for Arkansas and has only played well in about 3 of them, that's nothing. Jermaine O'Neal, LeBron, T-Mac, Garnett, Kobe, etc. all went from HS to the pros. Why? Because scouts could see the talent - regardless of who they were playing against.

[peZt]

This is totally the wrong line of thinking. You cannot evaluate whether the using ESPN ranking verbatim as draft order produces 80 or 90% bust. You have to think that ESPN/247/Rivals has filtered out the tens of thousands of crap ballers in high school and compiled a list of the best ones (with the top 30 usually labeled as '5 star prospect'.

And in fact this process works so well in many years, when there is a clear best player, these ranking services manages to identify that player. In this frame of reference, high school ranking is an incredible predictor of NBA sucess given that lowly ranked players almost never make to the league and even if they do rarely become stars.

Now you might be foolish enough to ask, oh CptCrunch, what about Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry and all those 3 star high school kids who became stars in the league? I would now ask you to compile the ratio of stardom between 5 star and 3 star players. If you were analytically sophisticated, I would suggest using ordinal logistic regression (or any ordinal classifier) to identify the effect of high school rank. The answer would become clear afterwards.

Why is it the wrong line of thinking? If this process works so well, then the top 10 best high school senior rankings wouldn't be full of future busts and failures. All I'm saying is that ranking guys that are in High School is not an indicator of future success. Someone can look like the best player in the country in High School and still turn out worse than someone who was ranked 20th in his High School class. You should always wait until guys have proven themselves against pros or college guys. And the mock posistion of the Twins is solely based on their performance against High School kids, and as these former ESPN Rankings show, ranking guys based on their High School performance is a complete crapshoot in terms of future NBA success.

You're wrong. People who are ranking the twins in the top 10 aren't doing it based on their performance against HS kids.

1) They've played a handful of games in the past year vs grown men pros (Mega Mozzart, there was that pro league last summer, etc.)
2) Talent is talent. A true talent evaluator can watch a prospect and see the talent they have, regardless of whether they're playing in OTE, the SEC, the EuroLeague or the YMCA down the street. The burst, the leaping ability, the ability to contort one's body, to handle the ball, the flexibility, the change of direction, the change of pace, the reaction time, the explosiveness, the lateral quickness, etc. A true scout can evaluate these types of things, regardless of the competition
3) Bryce Griggs is draft eligible this year. De'Vontes Cobbs is draft eligible this year. Jazian Gortman is draft eligible this year. Nathan MIssia-Dio turns 19 later this year. Johned Walker is draft eligible this year, Kok Yat was draft eligible in 2021! All of these guys are in the OTE. Plus, there's a bunch of other guys in OTE who are draft eligible in 2024 or 2025 but are elite talents who have gotten or will get high major offers (they're just as good, if not better than a lot of the players someone like Maxwell Lewis is playing against in the WCC, just as good, if not better than players playing on mid major schools that high major schools face during their non conference schedule. Heck, guys like Alex Sarr, Rob Dillingham, Naasir Cunningham, Jahki Howard and Somto Cyrile (all in OTE) are probably just as good (if not better) than some of the dues playing on Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin right now.
4) Look at Shaedon Sharpe last year. We only had HS tape on him. Enes Kanter and Darius Garland barely played at all during the season before the got drafted, yet went very high. Nick Smith Jr is projected to go top 10, yet pretty much all we have on him is HS tape. He's only played in like 5 games for Arkansas and has only played well in about 3 of them, that's nothing. Jermaine O'Neal, LeBron, T-Mac, Garnett, Kobe, etc. all went from HS to the pros. Why? Because scouts could see the talent - regardless of who they were playing against.

If Scouts could see the talent, then they wouldn't constantly draft guys with no Pro Experience who then subsequently bust in the NBA. If they could properly evaluate talent, then High School Rankings wouldn't be full of future busts.

Again, let's just take a recent year: If Scouts could correctly evaluate High School Talent, then this ranking wouldn't be as crap as it turned out to be
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2018/order/true

Scouts and Teams were also sure of all the Euro Busts in the Top 10 that "Talent is Talent". Again, all of the Euro Example I mentioned earlier never performed at the pro level. They only played against 17 year olds. And still got drafted in the top 10 because Scouts thought "Talent is Talent". Well it obviously isn't. Performance against kids means nothing.


High School Rankings get constantly shaken up in the following year when they play their first year in College. Because that's the first time they actually perform against good players and the first time we can actually properly determine their talent. If "Talent was Talent" regardless of Competition, then High School rankings would translate into College Rankings and NBA success. It doesn't because playing against kids means nothing.

And again, the twins are 20 years old and aren't even dominating.

[Hal14]

Why is it the wrong line of thinking? If this process works so well, then the top 10 best high school senior rankings wouldn't be full of future busts and failures. All I'm saying is that ranking guys that are in High School is not an indicator of future success. Someone can look like the best player in the country in High School and still turn out worse than someone who was ranked 20th in his High School class. You should always wait until guys have proven themselves against pros or college guys. And the mock posistion of the Twins is solely based on their performance against High School kids, and as these former ESPN Rankings show, ranking guys based on their High School performance is a complete crapshoot in terms of future NBA success.

You're wrong. People who are ranking the twins in the top 10 aren't doing it based on their performance against HS kids.

1) They've played a handful of games in the past year vs grown men pros (Mega Mozzart, there was that pro league last summer, etc.)
2) Talent is talent. A true talent evaluator can watch a prospect and see the talent they have, regardless of whether they're playing in OTE, the SEC, the EuroLeague or the YMCA down the street. The burst, the leaping ability, the ability to contort one's body, to handle the ball, the flexibility, the change of direction, the change of pace, the reaction time, the explosiveness, the lateral quickness, etc. A true scout can evaluate these types of things, regardless of the competition
3) Bryce Griggs is draft eligible this year. De'Vontes Cobbs is draft eligible this year. Jazian Gortman is draft eligible this year. Nathan MIssia-Dio turns 19 later this year. Johned Walker is draft eligible this year, Kok Yat was draft eligible in 2021! All of these guys are in the OTE. Plus, there's a bunch of other guys in OTE who are draft eligible in 2024 or 2025 but are elite talents who have gotten or will get high major offers (they're just as good, if not better than a lot of the players someone like Maxwell Lewis is playing against in the WCC, just as good, if not better than players playing on mid major schools that high major schools face during their non conference schedule. Heck, guys like Alex Sarr, Rob Dillingham, Naasir Cunningham, Jahki Howard and Somto Cyrile (all in OTE) are probably just as good (if not better) than some of the dues playing on Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin right now.
4) Look at Shaedon Sharpe last year. We only had HS tape on him. Enes Kanter and Darius Garland barely played at all during the season before the got drafted, yet went very high. Nick Smith Jr is projected to go top 10, yet pretty much all we have on him is HS tape. He's only played in like 5 games for Arkansas and has only played well in about 3 of them, that's nothing. Jermaine O'Neal, LeBron, T-Mac, Garnett, Kobe, etc. all went from HS to the pros. Why? Because scouts could see the talent - regardless of who they were playing against.

If Scouts could see the talent, then they wouldn't constantly draft guys with no Pro Experience who then subsequently bust in the NBA. If they could properly evaluate talent, then High School Rankings wouldn't be full of future busts.

Again, let's just take a recent year: If Scouts could correctly evaluate High School Talent, then this ranking wouldn't be as crap as it turned out to be
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2018/order/true

Scouts and Teams were also sure of all the Euro Busts in the Top 10 that "Talent is Talent". Again, all of the Euro Example I mentioned earlier never performed at the pro level. They only played against 17 year olds. And still got drafted in the top 10 because Scouts thought "Talent is Talent". Well it obviously isn't. Performance against kids means nothing.


High School Rankings get constantly shaken up in the following year when they play their first year in College. Because that's the first time they actually perform against good players and the first time we can actually properly determine their talent. If "Talent was Talent" regardless of Competition, then High School rankings would translate into College Rankings and NBA success. It doesn't because playing against kids means nothing.

And again, the twins are 20 years old and aren't even dominating.

Your espn lists don't prove anything. Those aren't NBA scouts or draft scouts. It's just ranking them as college recruits.

Of course they won't age well. They're ranking them as HS seniors - over a year before they get drafted. A lot can change in 12-18 months. Some kids work on their games more than others. Some players go through growth spurts, etc.

And you gotta stop saying stuff like "Performance against kids means nothing." I literally just explained this in my post that you replied to, but I'll copy and paste it here (lol) since I guess you didn't comprehend:

Bryce Griggs is draft eligible this year. De'Vontes Cobbs is draft eligible this year. Jazian Gortman is draft eligible this year. Nathan MIssia-Dio turns 19 later this year. Johned Walker is draft eligible this year, Kok Yat was draft eligible in 2021! All of these guys are in the OTE. Plus, there's a bunch of other guys in OTE who are draft eligible in 2024 or 2025 but are elite talents who have gotten or will get high major offers (they're just as good, if not better than a lot of the players someone like Maxwell Lewis is playing against in the WCC, just as good, if not better than players playing on mid major schools that high major schools face during their non conference schedule. Heck, guys like Alex Sarr, Rob Dillingham, Naasir Cunningham, Jahki Howard and Somto Cyrile (all in OTE) are probably just as good (if not better) than some of the dues playing on Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin right now.

Lots of the top high major players in the NCAA are only 18 or 19. So I guess the NCAA guys are playing against kids too?

Not to mention, the twins played a bunch of games last summer/fall vs grown men Pros (as i just explained in my last post)

Lastly, I have no idea what Euro Busts you're talking about who played against 17 year olds. The competition in Europe at the HS level isn't as good as it is in the US so you're comparing apples to oranges. In Europe, if a kid is really good, they will be playing pro ball by the time they're 18 so you're not making any sense.

[peZt]

Lastly, I have no idea what Euro Busts you're talking about who played against 17 year olds. The competition in Europe at the HS level isn't as good as it is in the US so you're comparing apples to oranges. In Europe, if a kid is really good, they will be playing pro ball by the time they're 18 so you're not making any sense.

There is no HS level in Europe. I'm talking FIBA Tournaments. And the U18 Fiba European Championship or u19 World Championship is close or higher than US Top HS level.

I'm talking about basically all of the international busts of the last 10 years. Who are the international lottery busts since 2010? Ntilikina, Hayes, Papagiannis, Hezonja, Bender, Avdija, Dante Exum. Probably forgetting a few.

What do they ALL have in common? NONE of them had proven themselves at the pro level before the draft. Only Hayes looked somewhat ok at a very low level team. All of them were hyped only because of their performance at Fiba Tournaments. So because they dominated other 17 year old kids, scouts thought "Damn this guy is a top 10 talent". These guys weren't even good enough for Euro teams and yet NBA Teams thought they were worthy of a top 10 pick. Why? Simply because they dominated kids.
This is what I'm talking about. "Talent is Talent" is not true. Everybody was sure that these guys were future NBA Stars because everybody thought they recognized the talent. But dominating kids doesn't prove anything. The bust ratio of players who dominated youth competition, hadn't performed at the pro level and still went lottery is 100%!!


On the other hand, let's look at the best international players in the NBA right now.

Doncic, Jokic, Bogdanovic', Sengün, Nurkic, Sabonis, Porzingis, Markkanen, Valanciunas, Wagner, Gobert etc.
Giannis being the one exception because he is a freak

What do ALL of these have in common? Most of them didn't have initial hype because they weren't dominating FIBA tournaments and Youth Competitions as the first group did, but ALL of them had proven themselves at the Pro or College level before getting drafted.

This is all the evidence you need to look at to see that dominance against HS kids means NOTHING. You can look like a future star (see the first group) against kids, and still fail. And as the data and history shows if you dominate kids but for some reason don't look good at the pro or College level, then you most likely will end up a bust.
If teams had waited 1-2 years before drafting the first group, none of them would've went as high as they did. But they were essentially drafted straight out of Fiba Youth Tournaments. Just as the Twins would be

I'm not even saying the Twins will definitely suck. But based on history and data, using a top 5 pick on a guy who hasn't performed at the College or Pro level yet is the 100% indicator of wasting a draft pick. Kobe, LeBron and KG are stupid examples because they DOMINATED the competition. With these generational kind of talents it can be obvious despite the competition. But the twins? These guys are 20 years old and aren't even dominating kids.

[Hal14]

Lastly, I have no idea what Euro Busts you're talking about who played against 17 year olds. The competition in Europe at the HS level isn't as good as it is in the US so you're comparing apples to oranges. In Europe, if a kid is really good, they will be playing pro ball by the time they're 18 so you're not making any sense.

There is no HS level in Europe. I'm talking FIBA Tournaments. And the U18 Fiba European Championship is close to US Top HS level.

I'm talking about basically all of the international busts of the last 10 years. Who are the international lottery busts since 2010? Ntilikina, Hayes, Papagiannis, Hezonja, Bender, Avdija, Dante Exum. Probably forgetting a few.

What do they ALL have in common? NONE of them had proven themselves at the pro level before the draft. All of them were hyped only because of their performance at Fiba Tournaments. So because they dominated other 17 year old kids, scouts thought "Damn this guy is a top 10 talent". These guys weren't even good enough for Euro teams and yet NBA Teams thought they were worthy of a top 10 pick. Why? Simply because they dominated kids.
This is what I'm talking about. "Talent is Talent" is not true. Everybody was sure that these guys were future NBA Stars because everybody thought they recognized the talent. But dominating kids doesn't prove anything


On the other hand, let's look at the best international players in the NBA right now.

Doncic, Jokic, Bogdanovic', Sengün, Nurkic, Sabonis, Porzingis, Markkanen, Valanciunas, Wagner etc.

What do ALL of these have in common? Most of them didn't have initial hype because they weren't dominating FIBA tournaments and Youth Competitions as the first group did, but ALL of them had proven themselves at the Pro or College level before getting drafted.

This is all the evidence you need to look at to see that dominance against HS kids means NOTHING. You can look like a future star (see the first group) against kids, and still fail.
If teams had waited 1-2 years before drafting the first group, none of them would've went as high as they did. But they were essentially drafted straight out of Fiba Youth Tournaments.

Dude, you keep making the same argument over and over, saying that dominance against HS kids means nothing. I've already explained 3x now why that's a stupid argument.

And if players only pan out if they prove it against pros first, then why do 90% of the players who get drafted every year come from the NCAA? They have never played against pros.

Spagnolo played against pros last year, so did Nzosa. Yet they got drafted 2nd round while there was tons of guys who went ahead of them in the 1st round who never played against pros. Makur Makur played against pros in the NBL, Ziga Samar played against pros and so did Yoan Makoundou - they both went undrafted.

Gosh, how did Patrick Baldwin Jr, Caleb Houstan and Peyton Watson get drafted while Makur, Makoundou and Samar didn't? I thought the players who played against pros are better than the ones who never played against pros. lol, see you make no sense.

You know who else had no pro experience before getting drafted? Jermain O'Neal, Tracy Mcgrady, Kobe Bryant, LeBron, Garnett, etc.

You know who else had no pro experience before getting drafted? Michael Jordan, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Carmelo Anthony, Bill Russell, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Durant, etc.

[peZt]

Lastly, I have no idea what Euro Busts you're talking about who played against 17 year olds. The competition in Europe at the HS level isn't as good as it is in the US so you're comparing apples to oranges. In Europe, if a kid is really good, they will be playing pro ball by the time they're 18 so you're not making any sense.

There is no HS level in Europe. I'm talking FIBA Tournaments. And the U18 Fiba European Championship is close to US Top HS level.

I'm talking about basically all of the international busts of the last 10 years. Who are the international lottery busts since 2010? Ntilikina, Hayes, Papagiannis, Hezonja, Bender, Avdija, Dante Exum. Probably forgetting a few.

What do they ALL have in common? NONE of them had proven themselves at the pro level before the draft. All of them were hyped only because of their performance at Fiba Tournaments. So because they dominated other 17 year old kids, scouts thought "Damn this guy is a top 10 talent". These guys weren't even good enough for Euro teams and yet NBA Teams thought they were worthy of a top 10 pick. Why? Simply because they dominated kids.
This is what I'm talking about. "Talent is Talent" is not true. Everybody was sure that these guys were future NBA Stars because everybody thought they recognized the talent. But dominating kids doesn't prove anything


On the other hand, let's look at the best international players in the NBA right now.

Doncic, Jokic, Bogdanovic', Sengün, Nurkic, Sabonis, Porzingis, Markkanen, Valanciunas, Wagner etc.

What do ALL of these have in common? Most of them didn't have initial hype because they weren't dominating FIBA tournaments and Youth Competitions as the first group did, but ALL of them had proven themselves at the Pro or College level before getting drafted.

This is all the evidence you need to look at to see that dominance against HS kids means NOTHING. You can look like a future star (see the first group) against kids, and still fail.
If teams had waited 1-2 years before drafting the first group, none of them would've went as high as they did. But they were essentially drafted straight out of Fiba Youth Tournaments.

Dude, you keep making the same argument over and over, saying that dominance against HS kids means nothing. I've already explained 3x now why that's a stupid argument.

And if players only pan out if they prove it against pros first, then why do 90% of the players who get drafted every year come from the NCAA? They have never played against pros.

Spagnolo played against pros last year, so did Nzosa. Yet they got drafted 2nd round while there was tons of guys who went ahead of them in the 1st round who never played against pros. Makur Makur played against pros in the NBL, Ziga Samar played against pros and so did Yoan Makoundou - they both went undrafted.

Gosh, how did Patrick Baldwin Jr, Caleb Houstan and Peyton Watson get drafted while Makur, Makoundou and Samar didn't? I thought the players who played against pros are better than the ones who never played against pros. lol, see you make no sense.

If you were reading my messages you would realize that I'm equating Pro Level with College but I used those international examples because there are fewer of them and it makes the argument more obvious.
Sorry but you're the one not making any sense because nothing you say or write disproves my points.
How many more times am I supposed to say that I am talking about Pro AND College level?

Did I ever anywhere say "If you play pro at 18 then you definitely will become a star!!!"? No I didn't. So why are you bringing up Spagnolo and Nzosa then?

[Hal14]

Read on Twitter

These clips are Amen vs a pro team

[Hal14]

Both twins in the top 5:

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft-v4

But but but...they're playing against kids! But but, wahhhhhhh!!

[Hal14]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Yallbecrazy]

I agree with Pezt here and wouldn't draft either in the top 20 in a really weak draft. Since this draft is so awful I may take them in the 20-30 range, but I don't think they would normally belong in the first round as their chances of being in the NBA in 4 years are probably <50%, let alone seeing any minutes.

[clyde21]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

[Yallbecrazy]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

[Braggins]

If we're calling Brandon Miller a 3&D guy then picks 2, 3, and 4, in last years draft were 3&D guys and picks 5/6 were undersized scoring guards. Sounds like that draft was a lot worse.

[clyde21]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

no, you just have no idea what you're doing if you think Miller/Dick are the 3rd best players in the draft.

[Yallbecrazy]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

no, you just have no idea what you're doing if you think Miller/Dick are the 3rd best players in the draft.

Those are the only two guys I can be reasonably certain will be NBA starters if healthy, everyone else has at least a 35% chance to be coming off the bench or out of the league in 6 years. Also, I don't see anyone with a >20% of being an all star.

[The Moose]

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

no, you just have no idea what you're doing if you think Miller/Dick are the 3rd best players in the draft.

Those are the only two guys I can be reasonably certain will be NBA starters if healthy, everyone else has at least a 35% chance to be coming off the bench or out of the league in 6 years. Also, I don't see anyone with a >20% of being an all star.

I think drafting 3-14 this year is almost a level playing field, which is unfortunate for whatever team ends up getting pick 3/4/5 after the lottery.
A bunch of decent/ok prospects that I would feel good about drafting 8-14 but not 3-7, if that makes sense.

[Hal14]

I agree with Pezt here and wouldn't draft either in the top 20 in a really weak draft. Since this draft is so awful I may take them in the 20-30 range, but I don't think they would normally belong in the first round as their chances of being in the NBA in 4 years are probably <50%, let alone seeing any minutes.

[Hal14]

the idea that this draft is awful is comical on every level

The 3rd best player is probably Gradey Dick or Brandon Miller. A 3+D guy and a Korver like player going 3rd overall? It's a really weak draft.

dude just stop. your takes are so bad haha.