2023 NBA Draft

[azcatz11]

Is Emoni Bates going to be a first round pick?

[Duke4life831]

I know on the first page I said I thought Filip was the better prospect compared to Lively for the Duke big guys. I will admit I was on a high for him coming off the FIBA 3x3 championships. Watching the Hoop Summit right now, the lack of explosiveness is far easier to see in the 5 on 5 setting against other elite guys. Definitely pumping my breaks on him at the moment. Still like the skillset he has, but he's going to have to become a really good passer and shooter for him to make any kind of noise in the NBA.

Duke's really gonna need a couple of upperclassmen lead guards to put it all together if Roach doesn't come back.

If Roach doesnt return, the team wont do anything. No doubt the ideal scenario is Roach returns and Duke lands a good vet guard in the transfer portal. I like the idea of a Roach/Whitehead back court with a vet guard off the bench.

But ya if Roach returns we need 1 transfer guard, if Roach bounces, we need 2.

Also tonight at the Hoop Summit, just another showcase for everything Whitehead does. The progression in his jumper just has taken his game to a scary level. I love his passing and feel for the game, the dude doesnt force anything at all. My only question with him is what is his actual height, Ive seen it listed up to 6'6. But seeing him in the backcourt with George tonight (another stud in my opinion), they have George at 6'3 and there didnt seem to be much visible difference between the two.

[clyde21]

I know on the first page I said I thought Filip was the better prospect compared to Lively for the Duke big guys. I will admit I was on a high for him coming off the FIBA 3x3 championships. Watching the Hoop Summit right now, the lack of explosiveness is far easier to see in the 5 on 5 setting against other elite guys. Definitely pumping my breaks on him at the moment. Still like the skillset he has, but he's going to have to become a really good passer and shooter for him to make any kind of noise in the NBA.

Duke's really gonna need a couple of upperclassmen lead guards to put it all together if Roach doesn't come back.

If Roach doesnt return, the team wont do anything. No doubt the ideal scenario is Roach returns and Duke lands a good vet guard in the transfer portal. I like the idea of a Roach/Whitehead back court with a vet guard off the bench.

But ya if Roach returns we need 1 transfer guard, if Roach bounces, we need 2.

Also tonight at the Hoop Summit, just another showcase for everything Whitehead does. The progression in his jumper just has taken his game to a scary level. I love his passing and feel for the game, the dude doesnt force anything at all. My only question with him is what is his actual height, Ive seen it listed up to 6'6. But seeing him in the backcourt with George tonight (another stud in my opinion), they have George at 6'3 and there didnt seem to be much visible difference between the two.

yea, Whitehead's much more a combo guard than a wing, he's probably closer to 6-4 than 6-6, not a wing sized guy at all...should be looked at as a combo guard IMO so it's super important for him to continue to developing as a playmaker.

but yea, big DWH guy for sure.

gonna be interesting to watch Whitehead at Duke and Livingston at Kentucky. i got DWH right now but it'll be fun. Livingston is probably more wing-ish tho.

[The-Power]

What I don't really understand are ESPN's rankings, with respect to their internal logic/consistency and from an NBA perspective. Let's look at the top 12.

1. Dereck Lively
--> What is it about him that makes him the #1? Is it once again just the idea of a long and tall shot blocker that has some skills beyond dunking the basketball? Because when I watched him, I was really not that impressed with his defense and I haven't seen anything from him that would make me want to put the ball in his hands at the college level (not to mention in the NBA). Not saying he doesn't have upside but #1 at this point? I don't see it.

2. Amari Bailey
--> Again, what makes him the #2? Somewhat small Guard who isn't an elite shooter, and who seems to struggle a bit against length in the paint. I like his playmaking upside and he seems to be a pretty well-rounded player overall, and he might be able to tap into one of the relevant areas to become elite. But just by watching him, I would not have had the feeling that I'm watching the #2 in the country.

3. Keyonte George
--> I like his upside as a scoring Guard. He's strong and well-built and can therefore absorb contact extremely well, and he has the markings of a three-level scorer. But #3 for someone who's undersized as a non-PG and who has to develop his skills a lot, especially if you want him to be more than just a scorer? I don't know, feels a bit too rich in terms of archetype (he could go that high in a year if everything translates rally well, but I find it hard to project him there at this point considering where his main value lies), although I'd entertain the idea that it's not too far off as the top of this recruiting class isn't all that special.

4. Dariq Whitehead
--> Here I understand the appeal. Not a can't-miss prospect (but none of his classmates are) and I'm curious to see how he integrates into an offense in which he's not the undisputed go-to scorer that can take any shot he wants, but the combination of solid size, advanced shot creation, shot making and some defensive upside seem certainly worth the ranking (perhaps even a bit too low in this class).

5. Kyle Filipowski
--> I just yesterday noted that he looks intriguing in highlights but I have to agree with @Duke that the Hoop Summit certainly raised some concerns. Not sure how he measured but in order to be a super-interesting prospect to me, he'll have to be able to play the 5 and yesterday he didn't look as big as I had hoped and he struggled with length in the paint. So I, too, am wait-and-see for the moment.

6. Nick Smith
--> Not sure how high to rank him yet. But what I have seen so far hasn't left me overly impressed. He looked like a fine prospect, someone to watch. But #6 feels a bit rich for him – again, from the games I have seen – because I haven't seen anything he can really rely on to create efficient offense consistently. Not saying he can't get to that point, but it's something I'd like to see first before I put this much faith in him.

7. Dillon Mitchell
--> Really like him. Awesome player who should be less passive than he often is (even tough I like his team-first approach overall). His offensive upside is somewhat limited I fear, but he's a great utility guy on offense (really good and quick passer, great in transition, rebounds well and his shot is not broken) and just a really great versatile defender. He's a somewhat reliable catch-and-shoot 3 away from being an NBA rotation player from day one. Not a top-tier prospect but around #7 is fine.

8. Gradey Dick
--> I think he's rated fine. Not a super-high upside guy but should be a very valuable NBA player due to his shooting and he probably brings enough size and athleticism to the table to be able to stay on the floor.

9. Jarace Walker
--> Here I don't understand why he's only ranked #9. Banchero was ranked #4 and is most definitely a top 4 pick in this year's draft. What makes him a clearly better prospect than Walker? Banchero was a better shooter and maybe had a bit more height but Walker is more of a menace around the rim (especially on defense). Both are good passers for their position and can initiate limited offense from the perimeter. I think he should definitely be ranked higher just by virtue of what he could be if he hits.

10. Jordan Walsh
--> Probably ranked fine. Ultimate hustle player, good length, good passing instincts especially in the open floor and athletic, but limited by mediocre handles and a not-yet reliable shot. Around #10 seems fine although perhaps a bit too high for my liking.

11. Julian Phillips
--> I like him and if his shot is for real (as in: excellent), I'll buy a lot of stock. Seems ranked about right for the time being, though.

12. Chris Livingston
--> Definitely feels too low. I'm concerned about his shot but the rest of the profile is just too intriguing to be ranked this low coming out of HS (still time to knock him down if he struggles shooting). His first step isn't great but he's an ultra-strong Forward who creates for himself and others, can defend multiple positions and rebounds well. If he ever becomes a consistent shooter, he's pretty much the ideal NBA type – and that should lead to a higher ranking here.

And while I haven't seen every prospect in the 13-40 range, I believe some of those I have watched are (considerably) underrated. Brandon Miller at #18 is far too low for the upside he has as a 6'8 player who can handle the ball, pass, shoot and block shots. Anthony Black at #20 is too low as well. I have some concerns about his scoring upside and athletic limitations, but he has great size and considerable upside as a playmaker – which is what the NBA is looking for and willing to invest in. Cameron Whitmore at #29? I don't see how. He's a bit undersized and needs to improve in all areas, but someone that strong and athletic who can create from the perimeter has definitely more upside than this ranking reflects. I'm also not sure why you'd rank a bunch of these scoring Guard types at the top and then have Tre White, for example, at #34. Jett Howard has good size, can shoot and has some on-ball ability – that's a really interesting type of player for the NBA if it all translates and that should probably be reflected in a higher ranking than #41. And Felix Okpara only at #58 is very odd to me when you have ranked high a bunch of players that are positionally locked as 5s and best described as prospective elite rim protectors with some mobility and developing skills, because that's exactly what Okpara is.

Long story short, I don't expect to mostly agree with ESPN's rankings; there's just too much uncertainty involved to be confident in the proper ranking of most players at this point, and I also haven't seen nearly enough to fundamentally challenge their position on any individual prospect. But I see a trend of overrating certain types of players and underrating others. In particular, I think ESPN consistently underrates players in the 6'6-6'8 range that can potentially play multiple positions on both ends of the court in the NBA (e.g. Livingston, Black, Miller, Whitmore, Howard) and for other types of players, I often don't understand the large difference in ranking compared to players of a similar mold with comparable strengths and concerns.

To be clear: I'm not saying my ranking would be inherently more accurate, or that I'm some kind of expert on this draft class (far from it, I just started watching more closely). But I do see some notable inconsistencies worth pointing out, and I guess you can say that I struggle a bit to figure out the criteria and internal logic used to arrive at these results.

edit: And, of course, a time will come where a lot of these above statements about prospects will look off as we learn more about these players and how their games translates to college. I'm fully prepared for that.

[reanimator]

ESPN (especially) and really most of the national scouting outlets are not at most of the grassroot events and generally lag behind the regional guys by months. Seeing Paul Biancardi at an event is like seeing a unicorn. Also a lot of politics behind rankings.

[clyde21]

yea, they lag for sure, but also I think they are kinda just ranking them in terms of how good they'll be in college, I don't think they really look at these guys from an NBA lens , which i think would change the rankings considerably?

i personally don't see it all with Lively/Filipowski in terms of the NBA at this point, but I'm sure they'll be great in the NCAA which I think is why they have them ranked so high?

if I do a top 10 at this point (again, just how I like in terms of the NBA, which is what I always look at it)

1 Dariq Whitehead
2 Keyontae George
3 Anthony Black
4 Brandon Miller
5 Nick Smith Jr.
6 Dillon Mitchell
7 Jarace Walker
8 Chris Livingston
9 Julian Phillips
10 Cason Wallace

not including Yama (intl), Scoot (GL) and the Thompson twins (OE).

[crows2]

What I don't really understand are ESPN's rankings, with respect to their internal logic/consistency and from an NBA perspective. Let's look at the top 12.

I came away from watching the Hoop Summit, McDonald's scrimmage and game, and some of the Geico Nationals with very similar thoughts on many of those players.

Lively - He was outplayed by Kel'el Ware for the most part over the past couple of weeks. Ware looked extremely bouncy, blocked a lot of shots and even showed range on his shot at the Hoop Summit, meanwhile Lively pretty much only scored off alley oops and wasn't as bouncy or impressive on defence.

Bailey - Seems like a great teammate, but he looks very small for a 2 and his shot didn't look amazing. He doesn't control the game enough at this stage to be considered a 1.

George - Wasn't impressive in any of the games. He seemed a bit passive for a score-first guard. It was hard to get a read on how good his shot is. Perhaps he thrives in a more structured team environment, as plenty of people are very high on him.

Whitehead - Was great in the Summit and McD's games, but poor in the Geico final and McD's scrimmage. Carries himself like the alpha of the group. He wasn't able to contribute much when his shot wasn't falling, but he seems smart enough to be able to develop a well-rounded game if he works hard enough at it. Looked shorter than advertised (more like 6'4) and is nowhere near the athlete of the recent stud SG's Edwards and Green, but if his shot is for real I can see him going top 5.

Filipowski - The Hoop Summit was the only game I saw him in and he had a shocker. Obviously very skilled for a big man but he found it difficult to get his shot off inside against the World team. I think he'll look much better against the less athletic college teams.

Smith - As Power said, Smith is really hard to get a read on. It was difficult to ascertain what position he was even playing during the games, let alone where he'll play in the pros. He's extremely energetic on the court, but that leads to him somewhat playing out of control. It seems like he'll be a hard worker, so he could succeed at a higher level. Like Bailey, George and Whitehead, his size isn't terrific (unless he plays the point).

Mitchell - Was impressive at McD's and best on court in the Geico final, but got totally lost at the Hoop Summit. Obviously a very good athlete. Will need to work on the rest of his game to become a good pro, but he has the tools.

Dick - Pretty much what Power said. Good shooter, decent enough athlete.

Walker - Was terrific at McD's in both the game and the scrimmage. Seemed to be involved in everything. Good athlete and good skills for his size. He played pretty poorly at the Hoop Summit, making a few bad decisions. He'll need to clean up his decision making, but looks a good prospect.

Walsh - Was pretty poor in every game he played. A non-factor on offence and didn't add enough on defence with his hustle to make up for it. He just seems like a nothing player to me - a less effective Scottie Lewis. Not convinced he'll make the league.

Phillips - Was rather anonymous at McD's and was just okay in the Geico final. Hard to get a read on him without seeing more.

Livingston - Great hustle player - his extra bulk makes him far more effective than Walsh in this area. I don't think he can shoot though. Will need to develop a shot if he wants to have any impact in the pros.

Miller - His body and profile stood out massively at McD's. Has the perfect archetype for the NBA, but is raw at the moment. He played decently in the scrimmage but was poor in the game (to be fair he didn't seem to be given as much of the ball as others). Has the chance to be a great prospect, but it could go either way depending on how smart and hard-working he is.

Wallace - He was pretty decent at McD's without doing anything spectacular. Should be a good college guard, but it remains to be seen whether he can lead an offence. He won't be anything more than a spark plug off the bench if he can't.

Black - I don't see it yet. It's hard to tell whether he's as tall as advertised due to his afro, and he's certainly not good enough to lead an offence at this stage. Has great potential if he can either become a good shooter or floor general due to his size, but he's nowhere near there at the moment. I see that Clyde rates him highly - I feel that he may be the 2023 version of Scottie Lewis and Max Christie; the player who Clyde sticks to his guns stubbornly and rates too high all year.

Whitmore - Just flat out overpowered players in every game he played. Acted as a great spark plug off the bench, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be against better organised opposition and as one of the main focal points. Will get great coaching at Villanova so he could turn out to be a stud.

Ware - Pretty much covered him in Lively's write up. Was the stand out C every time he played. Great athlete. There are apparently question marks about his motor, but that wasn't evident here.

[The-Power]

Appreciate the insights! Just one quick comment (don't really disagree with anything else):

Ware - Pretty much covered him in Lively's write up. Was the stand out C every time he played. Great athlete. There are apparently question marks about his motor, but that wasn't evident here.

It was evident to me, to be honest. He had a number of highlight plays that could give a different impression, but when I watched him running the floor or getting into defensive positions to contest, his motor was a concern for me. Also, he seemed completely clueless on defense at times – his feel for the game on defense was quite bad. He's the type of player that flashes what could be but for the time being I'm skeptical as to whether he has the motor and defensive IQ to ever be more than a player that mesmerizes people with his highlights.

I kind of alluded to it before but to me, Felix Okpara was the stand-out to me all things considered in terms of projectable tools among players of that ilk (defense first with limited offensive roles). He has a pretty short leash (also on his HS team) and I'll keep an eye on whether that continues and why it might be. I'll also closely look at how switchable he really is. Perhaps he does not have as much theoretical upside as some others but he seems more likely to buy into his best role and play it to the best of his ability. And none of the other bigs struck me as the type of bigs that should be offensive anchors in the future.

[clyde21]

What I don't really understand are ESPN's rankings, with respect to their internal logic/consistency and from an NBA perspective. Let's look at the top 12.

Black - I don't see it yet. It's hard to tell whether he's as tall as advertised due to his afro, and he's certainly not good enough to lead an offence at this stage. Has great potential if he can either become a good shooter or floor general due to his size, but he's nowhere near there at the moment. I see that Clyde rates him highly - I feel that he may be the 2023 version of Scottie Lewis and Max Christie; the player who Clyde sticks to his guns stubbornly and rates too high all year.

i mean, you're more than welcome to post some prelim rankings yourself instead of criticizing other people's at this stage?

and Max Christie is well worth a flier in the lotto in a class like this, and yea, Black needs to get better, obviously, like all of these players, any rankings at this point some with some inherent projections attached to them.

[TheSuzerain]

Terrance Arcenaux seems underrated to me. His EYBL numbers make him look like a great shooter. Houston has an insane class.

Teafale Lenard already completed his freshman year, but he's one to track. Hopefully he transfers up to face better competition.

[crows2]

Appreciate the insights! Just one quick comment (don't really disagree with anything else):

Ware - Pretty much covered him in Lively's write up. Was the stand out C every time he played. Great athlete. There are apparently question marks about his motor, but that wasn't evident here.

It was evident to me, to be honest. He had a number of highlight plays that could give a different impression, but when I watched him running the floor or getting into defensive positions to contest, his motor was a concern for me. Also, he seemed completely clueless on defense at times – his feel for the game on defense was quite bad. He's the type of player that flashes what could be but for the time being I'm skeptical as to whether he has the motor and defensive IQ to ever be more than a player that mesmerizes people with his highlights.

I kind of alluded to it before but to me, Felix Okpara was the stand-out to me all things considered in terms of projectable tools among players of that ilk (defense first with limited offensive roles). He has a pretty short leash (also on his HS team) and I'll keep an eye on whether that continues and why it might be. I'll also closely look at how switchable he really is. Perhaps he does not have as much theoretical upside as some others but he seems more likely to buy into his best role and play it to the best of his ability. And none of the other bigs struck me as the type of bigs that should be offensive anchors in the future.

I agree that there are still plenty of question marks about Ware, and he's the furthest thing from a "sure thing". I'm always wary about that kind of player and would need to see him play well on a consistent basis to feel comfortable taking him high in the draft.

[The Moose]

Amen Thompson is definitely someone im going to watch closely

[Hal14]

Amen Thompson is definitely someone im going to watch closely

Yeah anyone who wants a crash course on the thompson twins, check out all 3 games of the overtime elite finals. all 3 full games on youtube.

They're both really special talents.

Also, they both turned 19 in January which would possibly make them eligible for 2022 draft..will be interesting to see if an announcement is made that says they're now 2022 guys or if they stay in 2023 draft class..if they stay in 2023 draft class, they'll be 20.5 on draft night which would make them on the older side compared to other one and done guys..

[Jamaaliver]

I love to see it. I hope this move pans out for the player and the team.

He projects to be a Montrez Harell-caliber player when he does join the league.

Read on Twitter

[SeattleJazzFan]

What I don't really understand are ESPN's rankings, with respect to their internal logic/consistency and from an NBA perspective. Let's look at the top 12.

I came away from watching the Hoop Summit, McDonald's scrimmage and game, and some of the Geico Nationals with very similar thoughts on many of those players.

Lively - He was outplayed by Kel'el Ware for the most part over the past couple of weeks. Ware looked extremely bouncy, blocked a lot of shots and even showed range on his shot at the Hoop Summit, meanwhile Lively pretty much only scored off alley oops and wasn't as bouncy or impressive on defence.

Bailey - Seems like a great teammate, but he looks very small for a 2 and his shot didn't look amazing. He doesn't control the game enough at this stage to be considered a 1.

George - Wasn't impressive in any of the games. He seemed a bit passive for a score-first guard. It was hard to get a read on how good his shot is. Perhaps he thrives in a more structured team environment, as plenty of people are very high on him.

Whitehead - Was great in the Summit and McD's games, but poor in the Geico final and McD's scrimmage. Carries himself like the alpha of the group. He wasn't able to contribute much when his shot wasn't falling, but he seems smart enough to be able to develop a well-rounded game if he works hard enough at it. Looked shorter than advertised (more like 6'4) and is nowhere near the athlete of the recent stud SG's Edwards and Green, but if his shot is for real I can see him going top 5.

Filipowski - The Hoop Summit was the only game I saw him in and he had a shocker. Obviously very skilled for a big man but he found it difficult to get his shot off inside against the World team. I think he'll look much better against the less athletic college teams.

Smith - As Power said, Smith is really hard to get a read on. It was difficult to ascertain what position he was even playing during the games, let alone where he'll play in the pros. He's extremely energetic on the court, but that leads to him somewhat playing out of control. It seems like he'll be a hard worker, so he could succeed at a higher level. Like Bailey, George and Whitehead, his size isn't terrific (unless he plays the point).

Mitchell - Was impressive at McD's and best on court in the Geico final, but got totally lost at the Hoop Summit. Obviously a very good athlete. Will need to work on the rest of his game to become a good pro, but he has the tools.

Dick - Pretty much what Power said. Good shooter, decent enough athlete.

Walker - Was terrific at McD's in both the game and the scrimmage. Seemed to be involved in everything. Good athlete and good skills for his size. He played pretty poorly at the Hoop Summit, making a few bad decisions. He'll need to clean up his decision making, but looks a good prospect.

Walsh - Was pretty poor in every game he played. A non-factor on offence and didn't add enough on defence with his hustle to make up for it. He just seems like a nothing player to me - a less effective Scottie Lewis. Not convinced he'll make the league.

Phillips - Was rather anonymous at McD's and was just okay in the Geico final. Hard to get a read on him without seeing more.

Livingston - Great hustle player - his extra bulk makes him far more effective than Walsh in this area. I don't think he can shoot though. Will need to develop a shot if he wants to have any impact in the pros.

Miller - His body and profile stood out massively at McD's. Has the perfect archetype for the NBA, but is raw at the moment. He played decently in the scrimmage but was poor in the game (to be fair he didn't seem to be given as much of the ball as others). Has the chance to be a great prospect, but it could go either way depending on how smart and hard-working he is.

Wallace - He was pretty decent at McD's without doing anything spectacular. Should be a good college guard, but it remains to be seen whether he can lead an offence. He won't be anything more than a spark plug off the bench if he can't.

Black - I don't see it yet. It's hard to tell whether he's as tall as advertised due to his afro, and he's certainly not good enough to lead an offence at this stage. Has great potential if he can either become a good shooter or floor general due to his size, but he's nowhere near there at the moment. I see that Clyde rates him highly - I feel that he may be the 2023 version of Scottie Lewis and Max Christie; the player who Clyde sticks to his guns stubbornly and rates too high all year.

Whitmore - Just flat out overpowered players in every game he played. Acted as a great spark plug off the bench, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be against better organised opposition and as one of the main focal points. Will get great coaching at Villanova so he could turn out to be a stud.

Ware - Pretty much covered him in Lively's write up. Was the stand out C every time he played. Great athlete. There are apparently question marks about his motor, but that wasn't evident here.

ware also looked a little taller/longer than lively and he appears to have a better body that could fill out better than lively. if his motor really is an issue, that's could be a major problem. but simply from a talent, size, athleticism standpoint, ware looks like the better prospect to me.

whitehead is definitely an alpha - i still have questions about his game, but he plays like he expects to be the best player on the floor every time and that's not a small thing.

george almost looks too thick to me. not sure - it will be interesting to watch him going forward. but i wonder if he could be more athletic if he were more trim.

brandon miller was impressive in every aspect - probably my favorite prospect coming out of this spring. my question on him is whether he can be exceptional in one or two aspects or his he a jack of all trades master of none type kid.

i'm bullish on walsh, whitmore, phillips and smith. on many of the others, i'm just sort of meh. not sure what to think.

[clyde21]

I love to see it. I hope this move pans out for the player and the team.

He projects to be a Montrez Harell-caliber player when he does join the league.

Read on Twitter

Love Big O - probably got offered some real $ to stay back

[Big J]

I love to see it. I hope this move pans out for the player and the team.

He projects to be a Montrez Harell-caliber player when he does join the league.

Read on Twitter

Love Big O - probably got offered some real $ to stay back

Dumb move. He easily coulda made that back getting to his second contract faster.

[Duke4life831]

I love to see it. I hope this move pans out for the player and the team.

He projects to be a Montrez Harell-caliber player when he does join the league.

Read on Twitter

Love Big O - probably got offered some real $ to stay back

Ya I know the rumors are 7 figures. Not a bad fallback plan when youre not guaranteed a 1st round pick.

[jman3134]

Love how he wasn't going to get drafted according to "experts" just a month or so ago. Lol.

[CptCrunch]

I love to see it. I hope this move pans out for the player and the team.

He projects to be a Montrez Harell-caliber player when he does join the league.

Read on Twitter

Love Big O - probably got offered some real $ to stay back

Dumb move. He easily coulda made that back getting to his second contract faster.

Really dumb, because draft stock in the 2nd round after being NPOY just means your draft stock isn't going to get higher.

Perhaps he is just a big fan of college lifestyle.