Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[Hal14]

I see Sheppard like a slightly shorter Derrick White. White isn't great at beating his man off the dribble or creating space. But he is crafty with the ball, knows how to use angles, read his defender, to be able to get to the basket and create some space every now and then. He's more of a 2 but can play the 1 here and there

I prefer to go by games rather than highlights

Where do you think the clips I posted are from? They're from games.

[Colbinii]

Huh? They're white guys who are both good shooters. That's about the only similarities.

Yeah, I am confused.

Sheppard is bigger [larger frame], he has terrific STL and BLK rates, is an excellent defender at the college level, draws free throws at a good rate, and works on the defensive glass.

Pritchard had horrible STL and BLK rates, was not a good defensive player in college, did not draw many fouls, has a small frame, and is horrible on the glass.

Pritchard had more defensive rebounds and shot almost twice as many FTs. Sheppard also does not have a much bigger frame (if at all) Sheppard's defense is being overrated. He is the better defender in college but he is also surrounded by better teammates allowing him to gamble more which has allowed him to average .7 more steals than Pritchard who was no slouch at 1.8 spg.

Pritchard is an actual point guard though so it kinda evens out. It's not a bad comparison tbh. Prospect for prospect. I'd give the edge to Sheppard because he's doing it as a freshmen whereas Pritchard took a couple of years. Pritchard could probably start in the NBA but he hasn't with him being on a loaded team so he's an end of rotation piece. Same will probably happen to Sheppard.

I'm comparing them as freshman

[Hal14]

Dillingam is listed at 6'3" but looks more like 6'2" on film. We won't see official measurements till the combine. But here are some guys in the league right now who are 6'2" or under who would go top 5 if they were in this draft class:

Scoot
Trae
Garland
Kyrie
Ja
Lillard
Rondo
Maxey
Vanvleet
Lowry
CP3

Most of those don't seem to be good comparisons to Dillingham in terms of height, length, athleticism and strength.
Van Fleet and Lowry are MUCH stronge, Scoot's wingspan is 6'9" plus he's very strong, Rondo had freakish wingspan, Ja is a freak athlete and superior talent. CP3, Kyrie, Trae, Lillard, Maxey and Garland are incredible talents that overcome their limitations by being elite at what they do well, are you claiming Dillingham is at that level? If he is, no one would hesitate to pick him, but the fact of the matter is that he's guaranteed to be a small and lanky PG with limited defense, while there are no guarantees he'll be able to translate his virtues at the next level. I would still take him around 10 or so, but I think it's quite a stretch to put him in that group, or to say that just because those ELITE guys have similar height (not wingspan or size) then if they could succeed then Dillingham would be a worthwhile top 5 pick. Those are the absolute best guards at that size, the vast majority doesn't make it and I see no reason to take for granted he will.

Dude, you need to relax lol.

I was NOT making a direct 1-1 comparison from Dillingham to all of those guys so it is pointless to go one by one and explain how each of them is different than Rob.

I'm simply saying that "he's too short to go top 5" is a ridiculously lame argument when there's at least 11 dudes who are the same height or shorter or would go top 5 in this draft class.

Ja is a freak athlete but Rob is a way better shooter. Rondo has a long wingspan but Rob is a way better shooter. Garland doesn't really do anything better than Rob, Garland only played like 5 games in college yet he went top 5 in the draft..

[wemby]

Where do you think the clips I posted are from? They're from games.

Wow, that's quite an epiphany you had there Clips won't show you when Sheppard gets the ball in the halfcourt with a guy in front of him, looks around, doesn't shoot, wastes a few seconds, and passes it back, with his team desperately needing a bucket. They show you a distorted version of a player, you can't just go by highlights.

Dude, you need to relax lol.

I was NOT making a direct 1-1 comparison from Dillingham to all of those guys so it is pointless to go one by one and explain how each of them is different than Rob.

I'm simply saying that "he's too short to go top 5" is a ridiculously lame argument when there's at least 11 dudes who are the same height or shorter or would go top 5 in this draft class.

You do realize that none of Lillard (#6), Rondo (#21), Maxey (#21), Vanvleet (undrafted) and Lowry (#24) were top 5 picks, right? And I don't think Dillingham is anywhere near as dominant as Kyrie, CP3, Ja, Dame or Trae were in College. Unless you're an INSANE talent, that archetype is very rarely a top 5 pick.

[JMAC3]

Yeah, I am confused.

Sheppard is bigger [larger frame], he has terrific STL and BLK rates, is an excellent defender at the college level, draws free throws at a good rate, and works on the defensive glass.

Pritchard had horrible STL and BLK rates, was not a good defensive player in college, did not draw many fouls, has a small frame, and is horrible on the glass.

Pritchard had more defensive rebounds and shot almost twice as many FTs. Sheppard also does not have a much bigger frame (if at all) Sheppard's defense is being overrated. He is the better defender in college but he is also surrounded by better teammates allowing him to gamble more which has allowed him to average .7 more steals than Pritchard who was no slouch at 1.8 spg.

Pritchard is an actual point guard though so it kinda evens out. It's not a bad comparison tbh. Prospect for prospect. I'd give the edge to Sheppard because he's doing it as a freshmen whereas Pritchard took a couple of years. Pritchard could probably start in the NBA but he hasn't with him being on a loaded team so he's an end of rotation piece. Same will probably happen to Sheppard.

I'm comparing them as freshman

Comparing them as freshman? Pritchard as a freshman played on a stacked Oregon team that went 33-6 with 4 other pros. Brooks, Dorsey, Boucher, Bell. Was 6th in FGA per game at 6.3. Sheppard is also 6th on fga per game on Kentucky, on a top 10 team with likely 4 pros on it...

Sheppard is at 72% efg which is obviously a huge outlier and will come back down to earth. He has shot 2 fga attempts inside the 3 pt line in 3 SEC games thus far. If you want to evaluate him like this efficiency is possible then go for it, but a 6-2 non-special athlete isn't going to be the guy I flag plant to break traditional basketball models.

[BigGargamel]

I think all three of the Kentucky guards could squeak into the draft (not all three together, but any of the three), but I'm still probably taking an athlete with length if I'm drafting in the top ten.

Risacher, Sarr, Holland, Buzelis, Williams, Walter, Salaun, Castle, Filipowski, Collier, Topic

[Hal14]

Where do you think the clips I posted are from? They're from games.

Wow, that's quite an epiphany you had there Clips won't show you when Sheppard gets the ball in the halfcourt with a guy in front of him, looks around, doesn't shoot, wastes a few seconds, and passes it back, with his team desperately needing a bucket. They show you a distorted version of a player, you can't just go by highlights.

Dude, you need to relax lol.

I was NOT making a direct 1-1 comparison from Dillingham to all of those guys so it is pointless to go one by one and explain how each of them is different than Rob.

I'm simply saying that "he's too short to go top 5" is a ridiculously lame argument when there's at least 11 dudes who are the same height or shorter or would go top 5 in this draft class.

You do realize that none of Lillard (#6), Rondo (#21), Maxey (#21), Vanvleet (undrafted) and Lowry (#24) were top 5 picks, right? And I don't think Dillingham is anywhere near as dominant as Kyrie, CP3, Ja, Dame or Trae were in College. Unless you're an INSANE talent, that archetype is very rarely a top 5 pick.

Smh. Where did I say I was only going by highlights? I've seen plenty of Kentucky games this season.

Stop moving the goalposts. Your original point I was replying to was about Sheppard as a defender. So bringing up ONE random play on offense where he passed the ball to a teammate (and didn't even turn the ball over) is not relevant to the discussion.

Rob wasn't as dominant as those guys in college? Then why did none of them put up stats like Rob did? These are a couple of pretty basic search filters and the only guys who come up with close stats to Rob are Russell and Fultz. Russell was the #2 pick and Fultz was the #1 pick.

Read on Twitter

Fultz, Russell, Garland, Trae, Kyrie, etc. It seems like this archetype goes in the top 5 pretty often. Especially since 2024 is a weaker draft class, I could certainly see Rob going top 5.

[JMAC3]

Watch on YouTube

Feel like I am watching Colin Gilespie.
Defensively, guys were going by him and shooting over him all game.
Favorite part was at the end when he went all Bob Cousy mode dribbling mode and got all the free throws at the end of the game to make his stat line look decent.

[Pelly24]

The problem with Sheppard is that he can't beat people off the dribble or create space, he needs to be set up, and I don't see him as a credible NBA PG with that handicap.

He can do those things. He's not elite at them, but he can do them - I've seen it this season in the film.

The problem with Sheppard is that he can't beat people off the dribble or create space, he needs to be set up, and I don't see him as a credible NBA PG with that handicap. I think he's more of a SG, but his lack of size really hurts him in that regard

I see him as a combo-guard. Probably more of a 2. But can play the 1 here and there - like if the starting PG is on the bench getting a breather or is out that game with an injury or something.

But if he's on the floor with the starting PG, he can be a secondary ball handler.

Sure, his size hurts him a little bit. But I think if Sheppard was like 6'6" (or even 6'5") then he's probably a top 3 pick. At the size he is, he's no. 9 on my board right now. Let's remember that Toronto had one of the best teams in the league a few yrs ago (they were the 2 seed in the East) with a backcourt of Lowry and Vanvleet, with Vanvleet at the 2 (and Vanvleet played the 1, when Lowry was off the floor.

We're seeing more and more teams play 2 ball handlers on the floor at the same time (Harden and Maxey, Harden and Kyrie, Jrue + D-white, haliburton + Nembhard, Ja + Smart, etc.)

I see Sheppard like a slightly shorter Derrick White. White isn't great at beating his man off the dribble or creating space. But he is crafty with the ball, knows how to use angles, read his defender, to be able to get to the basket and create some space every now and then. He's more of a 2 but can play the 1 here and there. Very good defender. White is 6'2". Sheppard is 6'2/6'3 so a little shorter but Sheppard is a better shooter (white has improved his shooting this season but for most of his career was an average at best shooter.

He should be a good role player for someone in the teens (OKC would be ideal).

Let's not put a "role player" ceiling on Sheppard. We literally have never seen a high major freshman do what he has done this season.

Read on Twitter

And fwiw, I wouldn't say OKC would be ideal. They have too many good players already (especially too many guards) so it would reallu be a logjam if they added Sheppard. Too much overlap with Sheppard and Cason Wallace too, imo.

Dillingham too short to be a top 5 pick

Dillingam is listed at 6'3" but looks more like 6'2" on film. We won't see official measurements till the combine. But here are some guys in the league right now who are 6'2" or under who would go top 5 if they were in this draft class:

Scoot
Trae
Garland
Kyrie
Ja
Lillard
Rondo
Maxey
Vanvleet
Lowry
CP3

Am I saying Rob is as good as all of them? No. I'm just saying that "he's too short to go top 5" is weak logic, imo..especially in a draft class this weak..

Derrick White is close to 6'4" so he not only has nearly two inches of height on Sheppard he's also longer and a better athlete. It's his defense that has allowed him to carve out a career. Even he has had trouble until recently while playing with one of the best teams in basketball, playing in the role you envision for Sheppard.

Lowry and VanVleet are very good points when discussing heights and prospects. While they've both enjoyed tremendous success, I think it's fair to say they've been on loaded teams and their size has been a detriment. They're the outlier examples of shorter, non-athletes that provide hope for guys like Sheppard though

Watch any Kentucky game and you can see Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard on the court standing side by side and I've also provided team photos in the past with all three in the picture. Wagner and Sheppard are the same height. Dillingham is an inch shorter. My guess is based on everyone else in the photo, Wagner and Sheppard have to be 6'2" making Dillingham 6'1". But again, it's not just about height. It's the lack of length, quickness, handle, athleticism, etc that separates the Kentucky guards from all the players (besides VanVleet and Lowry)

Dillingham measured at 6'0.75" without shoes from what I remember from OTE's measurements. He's extremely slippery and extremely quick and a reliable to very good shooter. He could be a Darius Garland type.

[Pelly24]

hard to get too excited about a 6'1" scoring guard no matter how dynamic he looks playing weak teams while on a stacked team. I think this is an example of where people falter when evaluating prospects. They spend too much time worrying about college/Ignite/NBL production instead of whether their talent and physical gifts will translate to the NBA. Both of these guys will play in the league, likely off the bench, maybe a spot start or extended period due to injury, and they'll do well for themselves. Neither look to be future NBA starters for a variety of reasons. At least not on a good team and that's all that matters. Still worth drafting in the first

I actually think the opposite is true. People stupidly passed on Trae Young, a bunch of others. The height stuff matters, but also not that much. The average point guard is 6'1" and change or barely 6'2" without shoes with like a 8 foot standing reach and a 6'5" wingspan. Most are a little slower and less mobile than Rob, who's a solid leaper even if he's not powerful.

People paying too much attention to "physical gifts" I think gets them in trouble quite a bit. That's why people like Luka get ignored for Ayton, why Wiggins was compared to LeBron despite having games where he disappeared all the time, etc. If someone has adequate physical stuff (like, not under 6 feet) and they're dominating competition, you need to take it very seriously.

[165bows]

Yeah, I am confused.

Sheppard is bigger [larger frame], he has terrific STL and BLK rates, is an excellent defender at the college level, draws free throws at a good rate, and works on the defensive glass.

Pritchard had horrible STL and BLK rates, was not a good defensive player in college, did not draw many fouls, has a small frame, and is horrible on the glass.

Pritchard had more defensive rebounds and shot almost twice as many FTs. Sheppard also does not have a much bigger frame (if at all) Sheppard's defense is being overrated. He is the better defender in college but he is also surrounded by better teammates allowing him to gamble more which has allowed him to average .7 more steals than Pritchard who was no slouch at 1.8 spg.

Pritchard is an actual point guard though so it kinda evens out. It's not a bad comparison tbh. Prospect for prospect. I'd give the edge to Sheppard because he's doing it as a freshmen whereas Pritchard took a couple of years. Pritchard could probably start in the NBA but he hasn't with him being on a loaded team so he's an end of rotation piece. Same will probably happen to Sheppard.

I'm comparing them as freshman

Pritch wasn’t and isn’t horrible on the glass for who he is but agree there is a massive gulf between their freshman production. Maybe Sheppard ends up being PP in the pros but their freshmen seasons are leagues different.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Yeah, I am confused.

Sheppard is bigger [larger frame], he has terrific STL and BLK rates, is an excellent defender at the college level, draws free throws at a good rate, and works on the defensive glass.

Pritchard had horrible STL and BLK rates, was not a good defensive player in college, did not draw many fouls, has a small frame, and is horrible on the glass.

Pritchard had more defensive rebounds and shot almost twice as many FTs. Sheppard also does not have a much bigger frame (if at all) Sheppard's defense is being overrated. He is the better defender in college but he is also surrounded by better teammates allowing him to gamble more which has allowed him to average .7 more steals than Pritchard who was no slouch at 1.8 spg.

Pritchard is an actual point guard though so it kinda evens out. It's not a bad comparison tbh. Prospect for prospect. I'd give the edge to Sheppard because he's doing it as a freshmen whereas Pritchard took a couple of years. Pritchard could probably start in the NBA but he hasn't with him being on a loaded team so he's an end of rotation piece. Same will probably happen to Sheppard.

I'm comparing them as freshman

you said "at the college level" and "in college" . But yeah, it took Pritchard a little while to get there. Reed is miles ahead

[FarBeyondDriven]

He can do those things. He's not elite at them, but he can do them - I've seen it this season in the film.



I see him as a combo-guard. Probably more of a 2. But can play the 1 here and there - like if the starting PG is on the bench getting a breather or is out that game with an injury or something.

But if he's on the floor with the starting PG, he can be a secondary ball handler.

Sure, his size hurts him a little bit. But I think if Sheppard was like 6'6" (or even 6'5") then he's probably a top 3 pick. At the size he is, he's no. 9 on my board right now. Let's remember that Toronto had one of the best teams in the league a few yrs ago (they were the 2 seed in the East) with a backcourt of Lowry and Vanvleet, with Vanvleet at the 2 (and Vanvleet played the 1, when Lowry was off the floor.

We're seeing more and more teams play 2 ball handlers on the floor at the same time (Harden and Maxey, Harden and Kyrie, Jrue + D-white, haliburton + Nembhard, Ja + Smart, etc.)

I see Sheppard like a slightly shorter Derrick White. White isn't great at beating his man off the dribble or creating space. But he is crafty with the ball, knows how to use angles, read his defender, to be able to get to the basket and create some space every now and then. He's more of a 2 but can play the 1 here and there. Very good defender. White is 6'2". Sheppard is 6'2/6'3 so a little shorter but Sheppard is a better shooter (white has improved his shooting this season but for most of his career was an average at best shooter.





Let's not put a "role player" ceiling on Sheppard. We literally have never seen a high major freshman do what he has done this season.

Read on Twitter

And fwiw, I wouldn't say OKC would be ideal. They have too many good players already (especially too many guards) so it would reallu be a logjam if they added Sheppard. Too much overlap with Sheppard and Cason Wallace too, imo.


Dillingam is listed at 6'3" but looks more like 6'2" on film. We won't see official measurements till the combine. But here are some guys in the league right now who are 6'2" or under who would go top 5 if they were in this draft class:

Scoot
Trae
Garland
Kyrie
Ja
Lillard
Rondo
Maxey
Vanvleet
Lowry
CP3

Am I saying Rob is as good as all of them? No. I'm just saying that "he's too short to go top 5" is weak logic, imo..especially in a draft class this weak..

Derrick White is close to 6'4" so he not only has nearly two inches of height on Sheppard he's also longer and a better athlete. It's his defense that has allowed him to carve out a career. Even he has had trouble until recently while playing with one of the best teams in basketball, playing in the role you envision for Sheppard.

Lowry and VanVleet are very good points when discussing heights and prospects. While they've both enjoyed tremendous success, I think it's fair to say they've been on loaded teams and their size has been a detriment. They're the outlier examples of shorter, non-athletes that provide hope for guys like Sheppard though

Watch any Kentucky game and you can see Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard on the court standing side by side and I've also provided team photos in the past with all three in the picture. Wagner and Sheppard are the same height. Dillingham is an inch shorter. My guess is based on everyone else in the photo, Wagner and Sheppard have to be 6'2" making Dillingham 6'1". But again, it's not just about height. It's the lack of length, quickness, handle, athleticism, etc that separates the Kentucky guards from all the players (besides VanVleet and Lowry)

Dillingham measured at 6'0.75" without shoes from what I remember from OTE's measurements. He's extremely slippery and extremely quick and a reliable to very good shooter. He could be a Darius Garland type.

If Dillingham is that without shoes then that makes him 6'2" in shoes and every other prospect an inch taller with likely longer wingspans than I thought as well. It'd also mean I've lost my fastball big time. I've been pretty passionate about NBA prospects for a long time and thought I had simple heights down. Him being 6'2" would have a cascading effect on the whole class. It'd make Wagner and Sheppard 6'3", Bronny 6'4", Collier 6'5", Castle 6'5", Carrington 6'6", Edwards 6'7", etc etc. I'd really have to revisit all my rankings and adjust these guys higher which of course would mean the class gets even stronger. I probably would move them both into the lottery at that point. I guess a lot is riding on those combine measurements.

[FarBeyondDriven]

hard to get too excited about a 6'1" scoring guard no matter how dynamic he looks playing weak teams while on a stacked team. I think this is an example of where people falter when evaluating prospects. They spend too much time worrying about college/Ignite/NBL production instead of whether their talent and physical gifts will translate to the NBA. Both of these guys will play in the league, likely off the bench, maybe a spot start or extended period due to injury, and they'll do well for themselves. Neither look to be future NBA starters for a variety of reasons. At least not on a good team and that's all that matters. Still worth drafting in the first

I actually think the opposite is true. People stupidly passed on Trae Young, a bunch of others. The height stuff matters, but also not that much. The average point guard is 6'1" and change or barely 6'2" without shoes with like a 8 foot standing reach and a 6'5" wingspan. Most are a little slower and less mobile than Rob, who's a solid leaper even if he's not powerful.

People paying too much attention to "physical gifts" I think gets them in trouble quite a bit. That's why people like Luka get ignored for Ayton, why Wiggins was compared to LeBron despite having games where he disappeared all the time, etc. If someone has adequate physical stuff (like, not under 6 feet) and they're dominating competition, you need to take it very seriously.

I don't think Luka was ignored by the Suns, they already had a high usage chucker that plays no defense in Booker and figured they didn't need another in Luka so they took the center. The real travesty was who the next team decided to take but I don't wish to talk about that

All the issues with Trae and his size have come to fruition though. He can't defend. It does put pressure on the rest of the team and negates his offense enough where it seems a harder task for the Hawks to build a winner around him. He needs a center that can pick and pop and rim run with in the PnR. A two that can defend other team's best offensive guard and 3 and D wings. That's a lot to ask for. He's never had the 3 and D wings nor the shooting big. They've done a horrible job in Atlanta so it's not really all on Trae. But his limitations that demand that kind of supporting cast is.

A team could take Rob like they did Trae and they've be faced with all of the same hurdles and I'm not sure teams, after having watched Trae in ATL and Sexton (a similar case) in CLE are rushing to draft tiny point guards that can't defend in the lottery anymore.

Just look at the point guards drafted in the lottery these past several years

Ball
Hayes
Morant
Garland
Haliburton
Cade
Suggs
Giddey
Primo
Mitchell
Ivey
Scoot
Black
Wallace

All except Mitchell, Garland and Scoot were much taller but they either had size on him or were true point guards whereas he's more of a scoring point guard like Sexton. Teams have seen the failings of small guards and I don't think they're coming back into fashion anytime soon especially since he's not a true point guard to begin with.

What's fun about this hobby is all the disparate opinions. I look forward to finding out who is right. But depending on measurements he could very well move up my boards anyway by draft night so we might not even disagree by then.

[MemphisX]

Yes, this is why the individual threads on here are great. They last and we can all learn something from the discourse during guys' draft cycle.

[CptCrunch]

Reed has cooled down a little, but his BPM (14.0) is only below:

AD
Zion
Chet
Towns
ahead of Mobley

All of the above are major stat hackers in the NBA and stuff the box-scores. We've never seen a freshman guard put up these kind of efficiency. All of the above are bigs who stuff the rebound and block stats.

Being a weak draft, there is no way anyone should be not consider Reed in the top 5 based on stats alone. If he has four limbs and a functional brain, he is a top 10 pick at minimum.

[Hal14]

Reed has cooled down a little, but his BPM (14.0) is only below:

AD
Zion
Chet
Towns
ahead of Mobley

All of the above are major stat hackers in the NBA and stuff the box-scores. We've never seen a freshman guard put up these kind of efficiency. All of the above are bigs who stuff the rebound and block stats.

Being a weak draft, there is no way anyone should be not consider Reed in the top 5 based on stats alone. If he has four limbs and a functional brain, he is a top 10 pick at minimum.

Not to mention he's still shooting 54% from 3 on high volume. 23% assist rate which is good for a dude who plays mostly at the 2. 9% rebound rate for a combo-guard, are you kidding me? That's very high. 5.1% steals, and 3.3% blocks rates...as a freshman guard?

Like, these numbers for a high major freshman are bonkers. Looking at these numbers and you realize how silly it is to compare Sheppard to Payton Pritchard.

Agreed that he has to be a top 10 pick..and agree that you must at least consider him for top 5.

[Hal14]

In case anyone hasn't seen it yet. This was a game played during the summer of 2022. Sheppard on one team, going against a bronny james/dillingham backcourt.

Sheppard is the only guy on his team ranked in the ESPN top 50 recruits. The team he is going against had FIVE guys ranked in the top 50.

Yet Sheppard took over the game and led his team to a blowout win.

Watch on YouTube

[Pelly24]

hard to get too excited about a 6'1" scoring guard no matter how dynamic he looks playing weak teams while on a stacked team. I think this is an example of where people falter when evaluating prospects. They spend too much time worrying about college/Ignite/NBL production instead of whether their talent and physical gifts will translate to the NBA. Both of these guys will play in the league, likely off the bench, maybe a spot start or extended period due to injury, and they'll do well for themselves. Neither look to be future NBA starters for a variety of reasons. At least not on a good team and that's all that matters. Still worth drafting in the first

I actually think the opposite is true. People stupidly passed on Trae Young, a bunch of others. The height stuff matters, but also not that much. The average point guard is 6'1" and change or barely 6'2" without shoes with like a 8 foot standing reach and a 6'5" wingspan. Most are a little slower and less mobile than Rob, who's a solid leaper even if he's not powerful.

People paying too much attention to "physical gifts" I think gets them in trouble quite a bit. That's why people like Luka get ignored for Ayton, why Wiggins was compared to LeBron despite having games where he disappeared all the time, etc. If someone has adequate physical stuff (like, not under 6 feet) and they're dominating competition, you need to take it very seriously.

I don't think Luka was ignored by the Suns, they already had a high usage chucker that plays no defense in Booker and figured they didn't need another in Luka so they took the center. The real travesty was who the next team decided to take but I don't wish to talk about that

All the issues with Trae and his size have come to fruition though. He can't defend. It does put pressure on the rest of the team and negates his offense enough where it seems a harder task for the Hawks to build a winner around him. He needs a center that can pick and pop and rim run with in the PnR. A two that can defend other team's best offensive guard and 3 and D wings. That's a lot to ask for. He's never had the 3 and D wings nor the shooting big. They've done a horrible job in Atlanta so it's not really all on Trae. But his limitations that demand that kind of supporting cast is.

A team could take Rob like they did Trae and they've be faced with all of the same hurdles and I'm not sure teams, after having watched Trae in ATL and Sexton (a similar case) in CLE are rushing to draft tiny point guards that can't defend in the lottery anymore.

Just look at the point guards drafted in the lottery these past several years

Ball
Hayes
Morant
Garland
Haliburton
Cade
Suggs
Giddey
Primo
Mitchell
Ivey
Scoot
Black
Wallace

All except Mitchell, Garland and Scoot were much taller but they either had size on him or were true point guards whereas he's more of a scoring point guard like Sexton. Teams have seen the failings of small guards and I don't think they're coming back into fashion anytime soon especially since he's not a true point guard to begin with.

What's fun about this hobby is all the disparate opinions. I look forward to finding out who is right. But depending on measurements he could very well move up my boards anyway by draft night so we might not even disagree by then.

Right, it's definitely fun to speculate. What I'll say about Trae is this: He's been to a conference finals. Out of everyone in that list you mentioned, he's been the most successful thus far, and he's averaging like 28/10 on solid scoring efficiency for the last few years. He's one of the fastest guards in the league and one of the best ball handlers in the league and one of the best passers in the league. You have to put pieces around him, sure, but that's true for any championship roster. Giannis needed Middleton and Holiday and a bunch of solid defenders and some shooters to win a chip in an injury-laden year, and both of those players are better than anyone Trae has ever played with to date. Jokic needed Jamal Murray (an all-star type guy) and Aaron Gordon (a top 50ish player who's a rare defender/playmaker/rebounder at his position, perfect glue guy) and MPJ (a tall, elite shooter with improved defense) to win a chip, etc. So the small guard thing to me has always been somewhat moot. If you want to win a championship, you need multiple All-NBA-level guys or an MVP and an all-star and an elite supporting cast. Trae has had a good supporting infrastructure in the past for months at a time, but never a true No. 2 option, and he's still been successful. He's the type where if he ended up on a team that was actually good the narrative around him would change a lot, the same way it did with Devin Booker.

As it pertains to Luka, the Suns would already have a championship of they'd picked him back in 2018. It was a monumental failure, you should always get the best player, especially if they're possibly the best new player since LeBron James.

[Pelly24]

In case anyone hasn't seen it yet. This was a game played during the summer of 2022. Sheppard on one team, going against a bronny james/dillingham backcourt.

Sheppard is the only guy on his team ranked in the ESPN top 50 recruits. The team he is going against had FIVE guys ranked in the top 50.

Yet Sheppard took over the game and led his team to a blowout win.

Watch on YouTube

I watched it in real time, he was the best player on the court by a good margin. But Bronny's team was literally thrown together the day before, they never practices whereas reed's team had been together for a long time.

I feel like there's an "aesthetic" thing that makes people think Reed can't succeed in the NBA.