Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan - 2026 NBA Draft - Lottery pick

[King Ken]

Him and Mikel are tier 3 all by themselves

[JMAC3]

Yaxel will be 23.7 yrs old on draft night.
I know everyone wants to default to he is different tho....
Here is the list of oldest top 20 picks recently in NBA.

Rank Player Draft Year Pick Draft Age
1 Chris Duarte 2021 13 24.1
2 Cam Johnson 2019 11 23.4
3 Tyler Hansbrough 2009 13 23.5
4 Dalton Knecht 2024 17 23.3
5 Wesley Johnson 2010 4 23.0
6 Buddy Hield 2016 6 22.6
7 Brandon Clarke 2019 21 22.7
8 Doug McDermott 2014 11 22.5
9 Obi Toppin 2020 8 22.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023 18 22.4
11 Corey Kispert 2021 15 22.4
12 Jimmer Fredette 2011 10 22.4
13 Kris Dunn 2016 5 22.3
14 Devin Carter 2024 13 22.3
15 Matisse Thybulle 2019 20 22.3

Who is the best player? Did the NBA teams that selected know they were going to be bad when they picked them? Or did they talk themselves into this time it will be different-- just like we will with Yaxel.

There are a bunch of players on the list that everyone should be excited to get with a late-lottery/teens pick. Obviously some have washed out of the NBA, too. It would be interesting to compare it to younger prospects picked in the teens.

I mean the list is underwhelming.
Out of 15 players, it is 0 allstars, 2 starters, 3 busts and 10 rotation players.

Kris Dunn was picked 5th, ended up a rotation player.
Wesley Johnson was picked 3rd, end up rotation player.
Toppin picked 8th, ended up rotation player.
Even Hield who was picked 6th ended up low end starter.

Cam Johnson is the best player on the list.
Jaquez is probably 2nd best considering he was picked 18th and elite rotation player.

So you are telling me the average outcome is a Toppin, Kispert, McDermott and Brandon Clark rotation pieces- that shouldn't have anyone foaming at mouth for Yaxel.

Again best case seems to be Cam Johnson, Jacquez, Hield... with the downsides of Dunn, Johnson, Fredette and Duarte.

[mademan]

Ya i dont see anyway OKC passes him up at 12. Guy is a rotation player tomorrow that can help them win, and he's cheap for 4 years. This is what you want out of picks like this when youre the 1 seed

[Prospect Dong]

Yaxel will be 23.7 yrs old on draft night.
I know everyone wants to default to he is different tho....
Here is the list of oldest top 20 picks recently in NBA.

Rank Player Draft Year Pick Draft Age
1 Chris Duarte 2021 13 24.1
2 Cam Johnson 2019 11 23.4
3 Tyler Hansbrough 2009 13 23.5
4 Dalton Knecht 2024 17 23.3
5 Wesley Johnson 2010 4 23.0
6 Buddy Hield 2016 6 22.6
7 Brandon Clarke 2019 21 22.7
8 Doug McDermott 2014 11 22.5
9 Obi Toppin 2020 8 22.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023 18 22.4
11 Corey Kispert 2021 15 22.4
12 Jimmer Fredette 2011 10 22.4
13 Kris Dunn 2016 5 22.3
14 Devin Carter 2024 13 22.3
15 Matisse Thybulle 2019 20 22.3

Who is the best player? Did the NBA teams that selected know they were going to be bad when they picked them? Or did they talk themselves into this time it will be different-- just like we will with Yaxel.

There are a bunch of players on the list that everyone should be excited to get with a late-lottery/teens pick. Obviously some have washed out of the NBA, too. It would be interesting to compare it to younger prospects picked in the teens.

I mean the list is underwhelming.
Out of 15 players, it is 0 allstars, 2 starters, 3 busts and 10 rotation players.

Kris Dunn was picked 5th, ended up a rotation player.
Wesley Johnson was picked 3rd, end up rotation player.
Toppin picked 8th, ended up rotation player.
Even Hield who was picked 6th ended up low end starter.

Cam Johnson is the best player on the list.
Jaquez is probably 2nd best considering he was picked 18th and elite rotation player.

So you are telling me the average outcome is a Toppin, Kispert, McDermott and Brandon Clark rotation pieces- that shouldn't have anyone foaming at mouth for Yaxel.

Again best case seems to be Cam Johnson, Jacquez, Hield... with the downsides of Dunn, Johnson, Fredette and Duarte.

That distribution of outcomes seems pretty ok with, like, the 13th pick or lower. Especially since you're probably getting that level of production early on, while you're still paying them late-lotto money. Recently (skipping last year since it's too early) that's been guys like Devin Carter, Gradey Dick, Jalen Duren, Chris Duarte, Kira Lewis Jr.. You obviously hope for Duren, but maybe you live with a (hopefully) healthier, more versatile Brandon Clarke.

I don't think that's a steal at late lotto or anything, but it's probably better than average. You could talk yourself into it if you're a good team and ready to win now. Obviously not if you need to get lucky.

By around #16, that's a really good deal for most teams, IMO.

[ROballer]

Holy moly, speaking of Brandon Clarke.

Apparently he just died.

[tmorgan]

Holy moly, speaking of Brandon Clarke.

Apparently he just died.

Good lord. With all his troubles lately, I’d be guessing…

Rest in peace regardless. Tragic.

[JMAC3]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

Yaxel averaged 6 ppg as a freshman at Juco, followed by 12 ppg as sophomore at Juco. It took him 3 years to average 17 ppg at JUCO college. Then he led UAB to 4th and 3rd place finishes in the vaunted AAC- which was a first round exit where he shot 2/7 vs SDSU and his last year at UAB missed the tourney as a 5th yr college player.

Dude finally in his 6th college season played winning basketball on a team with 4-5 other NBA pros and everyone is freaking out to take him top 10. Wild evaluation.

[lastb1ckman]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

Yaxel averaged 6 ppg as a freshman at Juco, followed by 12 ppg as sophomore at Juco. It took him 3 years to average 17 ppg at JUCO college. Then he led UAB to 4th and 3rd place finishes in the vaunted AAC- which was a first round exit where he shot 2/7 vs SDSU and his last year at UAB missed the tourney as a 5th yr college player.

Dude finally in his 6th college season played winning basketball on a team with 4-5 other NBA pros and everyone is freaking out to take him top 10. Wild evaluation.

I personally can see him being a good role player/rotation forward on good teams. I do question how people just discount all this, and say he has star upside. If he did, he'd been in the NBA by now. He has his grown man body already, and didn't absolutely dominate college basketball. Where's the star growth going to come from?

People treat potential like some well you can always draw out of, sometimes you just squander it. When Yaxel hits the typical prime years he'll only be a couple years NBA vet, when his draft mates will be approaching a decade of NBA experience. Totally off the whole experience vs athleticism curve. By the time he approaches a decade in, he'll be out of his prime.

[Nate the Great]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

And maybe some of them would have been better players, coming in with that much training.

Look, I get it, younger players are sexier, because you can imagine them turning into all-time greats. But most of them will never get there, and some teams just want players who can contribute next season. Experience has some value to teams, regardless of how much it matters to fans.

[FarBeyondDriven]

he fits the Scott Perry strategy of taking 23 and 24 year old rookies and would fit the timeline with all the other young guys on the roster so don't discount the Kings taking him at #7. I wish I was joking.

[tmorgan]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

Yaxel averaged 6 ppg as a freshman at Juco, followed by 12 ppg as sophomore at Juco. It took him 3 years to average 17 ppg at JUCO college. Then he led UAB to 4th and 3rd place finishes in the vaunted AAC- which was a first round exit where he shot 2/7 vs SDSU and his last year at UAB missed the tourney as a 5th yr college player.

Dude finally in his 6th college season played winning basketball on a team with 4-5 other NBA pros and everyone is freaking out to take him top 10. Wild evaluation.

I personally can see him being a good role player/rotation forward on good teams. I do question how people just discount all this, and say he has star upside. If he did, he'd been in the NBA by now. He has his grown man body already, and didn't absolutely dominate college basketball. Where's the star growth going to come from?

People treat potential like some well you can always draw out of, sometimes you just squander it. When Yaxel hits the typical prime years he'll only be a couple years NBA vet, when his draft mates will be approaching a decade of NBA experience. Totally off the whole experience vs athleticism curve. By the time he approaches a decade in, he'll be out of his prime.

Who says he has star upside? Someone on here?

I’m a big Yaxel fan and supporter and think he should go late lottery. I have not once said he has “star upside” or anything that could possibly be interpreted that way, nor have I seen anyone else significantly higher on Lendeborg than I am. My most optimistic projection is “average+ starter in a year or two once he learns the league”, and comped him to Tobias Harris from a few years ago, not at his peak and not with the athleticism of his youth.

Now I’m sure there’s some idiot out there in the webiverse that thinks he’s a future star, but that idiot is not here.

[CptCrunch]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

Yaxel averaged 6 ppg as a freshman at Juco, followed by 12 ppg as sophomore at Juco. It took him 3 years to average 17 ppg at JUCO college. Then he led UAB to 4th and 3rd place finishes in the vaunted AAC- which was a first round exit where he shot 2/7 vs SDSU and his last year at UAB missed the tourney as a 5th yr college player.

Dude finally in his 6th college season played winning basketball on a team with 4-5 other NBA pros and everyone is freaking out to take him top 10. Wild evaluation.

The only cope defense is that Yaxel started basketball like 8 years ago. Tbh, I am not sure if that is even relevant.

I see Yaxel as a pure bonda fide scrub in the league with 80% chance, 20% serviceable role player.

[lastb1ckman]

Imagine if James Wiseman played 3 years of Juco, then 2 years at a midmajor and then 1 year at Michigan. My guess is by that time he would have been pretty dominant too. Same with Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker or Stanley Johnson.

Yaxel averaged 6 ppg as a freshman at Juco, followed by 12 ppg as sophomore at Juco. It took him 3 years to average 17 ppg at JUCO college. Then he led UAB to 4th and 3rd place finishes in the vaunted AAC- which was a first round exit where he shot 2/7 vs SDSU and his last year at UAB missed the tourney as a 5th yr college player.

Dude finally in his 6th college season played winning basketball on a team with 4-5 other NBA pros and everyone is freaking out to take him top 10. Wild evaluation.

I personally can see him being a good role player/rotation forward on good teams. I do question how people just discount all this, and say he has star upside. If he did, he'd been in the NBA by now. He has his grown man body already, and didn't absolutely dominate college basketball. Where's the star growth going to come from?

People treat potential like some well you can always draw out of, sometimes you just squander it. When Yaxel hits the typical prime years he'll only be a couple years NBA vet, when his draft mates will be approaching a decade of NBA experience. Totally off the whole experience vs athleticism curve. By the time he approaches a decade in, he'll be out of his prime.

Who says he has star upside? Someone on here?

I’m a big Yaxel fan and supporter and think he should go late lottery. I have not once said he has “star upside” or anything that could possibly be interpreted that way, nor have I seen anyone else significantly higher on Lendeborg than I am. My most optimistic projection is “average+ starter in a year or two once he learns the league”, and comped him to Tobias Harris from a few years ago, not at his peak and not with the athleticism of his youth.

Now I’m sure there’s some idiot out there in the webiverse that thinks he’s a future star, but that idiot is not here.

He has a couple fans on here realgm, especially in the Heat section, that think because he started late, he still has a bunch of upside to unlock. One compared him to peak Julius Randle

[DaddyCool19]

How high would he be picked, if he was a regular aged senior? So 2 years younger. Would that be enough to be a safe Top 8 pick?

[Caneman786]

he fits the Scott Perry strategy of taking 23 and 24 year old rookies and would fit the timeline with all the other young guys on the roster so don't discount the Kings taking him at #7. I wish I was joking.

With the Kings' draft history, there's easily a 70% to 80% chance that whoever they pick, if it isn't Yaxel, will end up worse than him.

[CptCrunch]

I'll add one point here that hasn't been raised as I and other have brought up the 6 years in college thing. Part of the issue isn't age, but rather acclimation. It takes time to get acclimate to college, to the NBA or even to your (yes you) new job.

A lot of frosh struggle not because they don't have the skills or potential or development, just that they haven't gotten there mentally to acclimate to the college game, college life, college refs and coaching expectations.

Yaxel's 6th year puts him at a huge advantage from this aspect. When he enters the league, he'll be a nothing, learn from zero rookie again. In college, he is a top 5 most tenured player in all of college basketball out of around 3500 minute qualified division I players today.

How good do you think Nate Ament or Cam Carr would be in 4-5 years from now in college. Both are bring mocked in the same range as Yaxel and are of similar size and role.

My entire thesis (using incel trader term here) is that yes Yaxel was insanely productive, but his production must be ruthlessly discounted as his age/experience is such an outlier in the bad direction. This ultimately boils down to a rift between those who understand the value of age in this world and those who don't.

[theBigLip]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

[JMAC3]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

#1. Dude was failing all his classes, which is why he didn't play in highschool but the final semester.
#2. It took him 3 years of JUCO to make it to UAB.
#3 It took him 2 years at UAB to make it to power 4 conference.

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old. And he was one of the least athletic players at the combine last week. 3rd worst standing vert, 4th worst max vert out of 72 participants.

RJ Luis will probably dominate in college basketball this year if gets to play at LSU, doesn't mean NBA teams should rethink him and take him top 10.

[theBigLip]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old.

Initial Struggles: When Lendeborg first transferred to Michigan from UAB, head coach Dusty May noted that his practice habits were "awful" and nowhere near where they needed to be for Big Ten play. He had previously been able to coast on his sheer athleticism and raw basketball talent.

Maturation and Patience: The coaching staff showed patience, guiding him to understand that playing for a top-tier program requires complete mental engagement. May's staff pushed him daily, addressing his flaws with care instead of harsh criticism.

Treating it as a Lifestyle: Lendeborg credits his decision to spend an extra year developing at Michigan as the best choice for his future. He actively worked on attacking practice with a pro-level mentality, realizing he needed to treat his routine as a lifestyle rather than just being happy to have opportunities.

[babyjax13]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old.

Initial Struggles: When Lendeborg first transferred to Michigan from UAB, head coach Dusty May noted that his practice habits were "awful" and nowhere near where they needed to be for Big Ten play. He had previously been able to coast on his sheer athleticism and raw basketball talent.

Maturation and Patience: The coaching staff showed patience, guiding him to understand that playing for a top-tier program requires complete mental engagement. May's staff pushed him daily, addressing his flaws with care instead of harsh criticism.

Treating it as a Lifestyle: Lendeborg credits his decision to spend an extra year developing at Michigan as the best choice for his future. He actively worked on attacking practice with a pro-level mentality, realizing he needed to treat his routine as a lifestyle rather than just being happy to have opportunities.

Where is this from? Sounds like a chatGPT summary of something, but if there is an article about how he changed his approach to practice that might be interesting to look at.