2022 NBA Draft

[Duke4life831]

We aren't talking about top 3 or even top 5 here. Duren going top 3 has long sailed (or even #1 pre-season).

Duren for me is a borderline top 10 guy this year. Maybe I should have said he is a #8-14 for him, closer to the top side.

You take him for his rim running ability. It is really difficult to look good on a bad team with players checked out. It takes a whole another 'level of good' that you cannot expect out of Duren to lead a bad team like Memphis right now. He is a hustle, rim runner guy right now. Expecting him to create offense is unrealistic given his draft position.

Plus Jalen Duren is a baby, he will remain 18 at time of the draft. He is on the younger side for his class.

Yes, this class is bad. I'm really down on Paolo, Chet and Jabari.

I agree 100% with this, which leads me to ask why do you view him as a top 10 pick? Why draft Duren over say Mark Williams? Williams is a hustle rim runner, but Mark Williams is an elite rim protector and actually is a very good defender and he also has elite phyiscal tools with his ridiculous 7'7 wingspan. Either than age, why Duren over Williams?

(to be clear this isnt me saying Williams should go top 10 or top 20).

Duren is also almost exactly 2 years younger.

It is difficult for me to imagine that 2 years under NBA coaching, development, Duren cannot reach Mark William's level in an average developmental trajectory.

Williams likely a first round pick in the 20-35 range.

edit: comparable counting stats, not better counting stats

I'll ask the same question Ive been asking for the last month on this subject. When was the last time a raw athletic 5 who went in the top 10 worked out? Hint the answer is Dwight Howard.

Jaxson Hayes was young, tall and athletic. How has his progression been? There is a long long list of raw athletic bigs that never progressed all that much.

Also I dont care about counting stats especially when you throw in stats from games like Tennessee Tech. Watch any of Duren's games from the last 4 games. Then watch Mark Williams against Gonzaga or UK, tell me you see the same kind of impact. Its not close.

But I agree with you, I think Mark Williams should go late 20s to early 2nd round. That is where Duren should go as well. You get a huge body, freakish length and great defensive instincts with Mark, all areas he is far ahead of Duren in.

[CptCrunch]

I agree 100% with this, which leads me to ask why do you view him as a top 10 pick? Why draft Duren over say Mark Williams? Williams is a hustle rim runner, but Mark Williams is an elite rim protector and actually is a very good defender and he also has elite phyiscal tools with his ridiculous 7'7 wingspan. Either than age, why Duren over Williams?

(to be clear this isnt me saying Williams should go top 10 or top 20).

Duren is also almost exactly 2 years younger.

It is difficult for me to imagine that 2 years under NBA coaching, development, Duren cannot reach Mark William's level in an average developmental trajectory.

Williams likely a first round pick in the 20-35 range.

edit: comparable counting stats, not better counting stats

I'll ask the same question Ive been asking for the last month on this subject. When was the last time a raw athletic 5 who went in the top 10 worked out? Hint the answer is Dwight Howard.

Jaxson Hayes was young, tall and athletic. How has his progression been? There is a long long list of raw athletic bigs that never progressed all that much.

Also I dont care about counting stats especially when you throw in stats from games like Tennessee Tech. Watch any of Duren's games from the last 4 games. Then watch Mark Williams against Gonzaga or UK, tell me you see the same kind of impact. Its not close.

But I agree with you, I think Mark Williams should go late 20s to early 2nd round. That is where Duren should go as well. You get a huge body, freakish length and great defensive instincts with Mark, all areas he is far ahead of Duren in.

Every American C drafted in before 20 (but not top 3) over past 10 year has been effectively raw and skill-less, rim runner/hustleman of some kind. Plenty of them work out.

Duren wouldn't go top 10 in most classes, but I literally cannot think of other players worth drafting. I wouldn't draft any of the top 3 right now before 4 last year. This international class is beyond bad..

[MemphisX]

So, I'd like to hear your thoughts on which guys you are currently considering for the top 10. That is, which prospects do you think have a reasonable argument (i.e. exclude prospects you think only have a weak argument) at this point (but feel free to mention players separately that you believe could get there eventually if things break right). It's about your big board, not about a mock draft or mock ranking based on how you believe teams are feeling about these prospects.

I currently have Jaden Ivey first, ahead of Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero. Those three are essentially locks for me in the top 10 (but not yet for the top 3). Then I'd include Chet Holmgren and Jaden Hardy due to their theoretical upside but I have some concerns that could make them drop out of the top 10. I also consider some of the athletic wing players to have valid arguments, namely Jonathan Davis, Benedict Mathurin and – if he's indeed to be considered a wing – Kendall Brown. I'd also put Keegan Murry on this list although I'll keep a close eye on him to see how the fares in the more difficult match ups this year. Among Point Guards, I'd include JD Davison and Kennedy Chandler, although I'm far from sure about either of them in this range at this point. Maybe Patrick Baldwin Jr. as a fringe candidate? I'm really not convinced of him yet, though.

So that would be 11 or 12 prospects and a bunch of them I'm not very bullish on at this point. I'm not (yet) buying stock for Diabate, Duren, Houstan, Griffin, Washington or Christie in the top 10, and I also have Daniels and Beauchamp from the Ignite team a bit lower. Not sure about the international players but I haven't seen anyone that really pops out to me yet. I continue to not be enamored with this draft and some prospects that I wouldn't really call lottery picks are likely to end up in my top 10 because of that.

But how do you feel about your top 10 candidates?

Chet
Paolo
Jabari Smith
Ivey
Mathurin
Kendall Brown
PBJ
JD Davidson
Johnny Davis
Hardy
Houstan

[MemphisX]

For me Sochan>Duren.

And yes, I would take Sochan in the lottery.

[clyde21]

any thoughts on Harrison Ingram? freshmen from stanford

[crows2]

Also I dont care about counting stats especially when you throw in stats from games like Tennessee Tech. Watch any of Duren's games from the last 4 games. Then watch Mark Williams against Gonzaga or UK, tell me you see the same kind of impact. Its not close.

Apart from a bit of rim protection, Williams was utterly destroyed by Kentucky. That game wasn’t a good look for him at all. Duren is definitely a better prospect.

But, as I think you’re arguing, do you pick Duren in the late lottery or wait for a slightly worse option in the late 20s? History would tell you to trade down and pick the slightly worse option.

[Duke4life831]

Also I dont care about counting stats especially when you throw in stats from games like Tennessee Tech. Watch any of Duren's games from the last 4 games. Then watch Mark Williams against Gonzaga or UK, tell me you see the same kind of impact. Its not close.

Apart from a bit of rim protection, Williams was utterly destroyed by Kentucky. That game wasn’t a good look for him at all. Duren is definitely a better prospect.

But, as I think you’re arguing, do you pick Duren in the late lottery or wait for a slightly worse option in the late 20s? History would tell you to trade down and pick the slightly worse option.

How was he destroyed? Ya he got out rebounded by the best rebounder in college, i definitely won’t deny that. But he played fantastic defense the entire time he was in the game. That is basically how I judge a player like Mark Williams, what kind of defensive impact did he have. He was a stud defender in that UK game. Definitely a far better defensive performance against a legit team than we have seen from Duren so far. Duren has been flat out bad defensively against the legit teams he has faced.

And yes that is exactly what I’m arguing. I dont take Duren late lotto. I don’t take any of these kind of players early or late lotto. If another team wants to, go for it. I can find a player as comparable in the late 20s or early 30s. This is why taking a player like a Duren or Williams early in the draft is a complete waste. You can find players like this in the 25-45 range in every draft.

[crows2]

Also I dont care about counting stats especially when you throw in stats from games like Tennessee Tech. Watch any of Duren's games from the last 4 games. Then watch Mark Williams against Gonzaga or UK, tell me you see the same kind of impact. Its not close.

Apart from a bit of rim protection, Williams was utterly destroyed by Kentucky. That game wasn’t a good look for him at all. Duren is definitely a better prospect.

But, as I think you’re arguing, do you pick Duren in the late lottery or wait for a slightly worse option in the late 20s? History would tell you to trade down and pick the slightly worse option.

How was he destroyed? Ya he got out rebounded by the best rebounder in college, i definitely won’t deny that. But he played fantastic defense the entire time he was in the game. That is basically how I judge a player like Mark Williams, what kind of defensive impact did he have. He was a stud defender in that UK game. Definitely a far better defensive performance against a legit team than we have seen from Duren so far. Duren has been flat out bad defensively against the legit teams he has faced.

And yes that is exactly what I’m arguing. I dont take Duren late lotto. I don’t take any of these kind of players early or late lotto. If another team wants to, go for it. I can find a player as comparable in the late 20s or early 30s. This is why taking a player like a Duren or Williams early in the draft is a complete waste. You can find players like this in the 25-45 range in every draft.

A significant part of defense is defensive rebounding and he was exposed badly in this area. I don’t know how you can argue that he wasn’t destroyed in that game? Yes it was Tshiebwe, but that doesn’t change the fact that Williams was badly beaten. His direct opponent singlehandedly kept his team in the game.

But yeah, completely agree with your overall point. I had Duren higher at the beginning of the season as I thought he might be more than a “raw athletic big”, but it seems at this stage I was wrong on that. If that’s all he is, his value drops significantly.

[Coeur]

1- Chet
2- Paulo
3- Ivey
4- Jabari
5- Baldwin
6- Kendall Brown
7- Ben Mathurin
8- Ousmane Dieng
9- Duren
10- Jovic
11- Max Christie


10 Duke, UCLA, Gonzaga players 12-21

Terrence Shannon
Roko
Hugo, Nzosa
The rest

[God Squad]

Does anyone love this draft? Aside from like 5-6 guys, I'm just not sure man.
Feel pretty confident that these two will translate fairly easily and have solid ceiling.

1. Jabari Smith
2. Jaden Ivey

[Hal14]

JD Davidson is going to be top 10 most likely.

the dude makes winning plays - he's fun to watch. And somehow his hair doesn't get in his eyes or hold him back in any way.

Watch on YouTube

Was that last play not goaltending?

Read on Twitter

[LukaTheGOAT]

Watch on YouTube

Thought this was a fun and interesting convo.

[BostonCouchGM]

ESPN just can't help themselves. Touting Duren as 6'11" with a 7'5" wingspan. Duren is barely taller than Penny. I'd say he's closer to 6'9" than 6'11". Great passer for a big but he has zero offensive game nor does he seem interested in shooting anything that isn't a dunk.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think Wendell Moore has arguably been Duke's best player this year.

[Duke4life831]

I think Wendell Moore has arguably been Duke's best player this year.

You can take the arguably away from this post, he clearly has been their best player. And this is coming from one of the bigger Wendell Moore critics over the past 2 years.

[Duke4life831]

I do just want to say, I know some have posted a few videos already. But how great is the "The Scouting Rapport" YouTube channel. By far the best highlights out of any other channel. Shows every instant when the player is part of the box score. Great to see the turnovers and the missed shots in those highlights. Been watching that channel since after the first set of college games this year.

[TraBuch]

Watch on YouTube

[Duke4life831]

Watch on YouTube

Before anyone gets too hyped from these highlights. SC State is arguably a bottom 10 team in the entire Div 1 (358 schools). Even as a diehard Duke fan that game was brutal to watch. And to put things into perspective, NY Giants QB Daniel Jones brother Bates Jones got 15 minutes for Duke and looked productive in the game. Jaylen Blakes who I almost forgot was on the team got 18 minutes.

We've seen this from Griffin before.

21 minutes, 18 points on 7-10 shooting and 2 steals against Lafayette. Then followed up with

11 minutes against The Citadel
6 minutes against Gonzaga
2 minutes against Ohio State

(to be clear, this isnt me saying you TraBuch is getting overly excited from this game. Just putting the context out there for anyone who didnt watch the game and just watch these highlights and might start getting pumped to see AJ turning it around.)

[XTC]

Anyone get Rashard Lewis (Seattle version) vibes from Jabari Smith? I say that with the upmost respect for Rashard Lewis who was a beast.

[God Squad]

Anyone get Rashard Lewis (Seattle version) vibes from Jabari Smith? I say that with the upmost respect for Rashard Lewis who was a beast.

Every time I watch Jabari Smith I feel like I'm watching Rashard Lewis 2.0.

Exactly what I wrote two pages back.