zimpy27 wrote:jman3134 wrote:I like both Davis and Ivey a lot in this draft. Davis is a more refined offensive weapon at this point, but I think Ivey has the burst to play much better in space, which is what the next level is all about. Davis received unprecedented defensive attention from what I saw on film. I think he is going to be one of the gems of this class as well, though I view Ivey as a better prospect. Both are towards the top of this class imo.
100% eye test: for Chet, I understand why he is an elite prospect, but I don't believe that he will develop close to his upside case. To do so, he will need to continue developing his handle and establish himself as a 40%+ 3pt shooter right out of the gate. Defensively, I think he will be decent from a help perspective, but I don't see him adding enough weight to not be somewhat of a liability 1 on 1. He is one of the more difficult calls, but I lean towards him not reaching the upside case.
Banchero I don't like as an NBA prospect in the top 10. He peaked early on his physical development. He is a solid midrange shooter, but just average from 3. He doesn't have much in the way of defense. He has a good handle and decent fluidity for his size. Could he continue to develop? Sure. But, he will need to specialize from beyond the arc to make up for his complete liability on the defensive end. Maybe if an NBA team uses him as a small ball center and then surrounds him with some lengthy wings to rim protect he can reach his potential. That could be a situational win. He certainly rebounds well enough and has the physicality. But, more likely than not, I think he will not live up to expectations.
Jabari Smith I am very high on in terms of his shot making and general scoring ability. I think he is a perfect fit in the modern NBA.
Keegan Murray I have expressed in other threads that I do not see as an elite level prospect from his college tape, but I admit that I might be missing something from a personality composition standpoint.
Mathurin is absolutely one of my favorite prospects in this class as well. I'm not completely sold on the shooting, but I think he is a good overall scorer with solid explosiveness, which will translate. He is in my upper tier of this class.
AJ Griffin I like a lot more than consensus at this point. I think the age and shot making portend big things to come. Obviously, he is still a work in progress, but I think he is still young enough to develop certain areas of his game and emerge towards the top of this class, injuries permitting. Obviously, you have to discount the injury history and take a look at his medical though.
Also, I really like Malaki Branham's shot making. I wouldn't put him in my top top tier, but he is up there.
Mark Williams impact on the defensive end is going to translate considerably and he is going to be a big win for someone. In the second round, Christian Koloko should actually have a great impact as well with the ability to switch out on the perimeter. These nimble footed bigs should be big wins in this class.
Jeremy Sochan is one of my favorite players in this draft from a defensive standpoint as well. I think he will provide some unique switchable presence on the floor. Offensively, I think he has a lot of work to do, but should be a very rich man's PJ Tucker. Winning player.
There are a bunch of players I believe are mis-valued in the 2nd round this year according to what the mocks say now. Gui Santos, Christian Koloko, Ryan Rollins, Dominick Barlow, Gabriele Procida, Jean Montero, and Kenny Lofton I believe are elite value.
I'm light on my G League Ignite tapework and Tari Eason so I'm going to abstain from making any general statements. Analytics and tools obviously look good on Eason, but IQ looks a bit all over the place from what I've seen. I'm not sure where to put him at this point.
My tiers from a prospect's standpoint (weighing likelihood of hitting + where I think they'll end up):
Jabari Smith
Jaden Ivey
Chet (with the most upside, but not reaching it)
Mathurin
Griffin (injuries being a big risk)
Davis
Branham
Sochan
Mark Williams
Duren
Agbaji
Banchero
Keegan
Gui Santos (see upside for more but shooting)
Dalen Terry (see upside for a lot more but shooting)
Koloko
Jalen Williams
Barlow
Ivey has really high bust potential to me while having high upside potential too. I expect to see him drafted ahead of Davis but they should be considered pretty close, much closer than they are being mocked broadly. The reaction BBIQ Davis has lets him be a good defender, it lets him enter the midrange with a live dribble, I don't see this in Ivey, I don't think he thinks or reacts fast enough. I would personally choose a isolation+D wing over a straight line speed demon in the modern NBA.
Chet to me is the guy Magic should take, try build your offense through him. I think he will surprise a bit with his midrange shooting in the NBA. If you can make him a key cog in an offense like Draymond but with better shooting then you have your #1 guy.
I'm very high on Smith too. Chet and him are top 2 and I can't split them. Banchero I think is going to be like a Tobias Harris level player, decent and can do a lot of everything but limited to a 4 on defense that can't cover much outside of the 4.
I like Sochan too and expect him to go top 10. Like Lofton too, he will be good value.
So it feels like we agree on a lot. I don't see the bust potential with Ivey because I believe he has way more defensive upside than most on this board are giving him credit for (which creates a pretty high floor even if he were to develop into a stopper). On the offensive end, the concerns about his midrange game aren't unfounded, but the game has changed so much that it is of minimal consequence for an athlete of his caliber. The body control and ability to score through contact at the rim screams Ja Morant to me, but with a better frame, and not nearly the same vision. This might surprise you, but I don't expect Ivey to storm out of the gate and dominate. I think there is going to be an adjustment period where he acclimates himself to making quicker reads out of P&R sets. The other concern I have is his three point shot. He can shoot a set shot if he wants to, but he really needs to improve his proficiency. The upside is that he will be able to get to the rim whenever he wants ala Russ West offensively, but without the low IQ midrange attempts. He plays way more in the flow of the offense and lets the game come to him. Defensively, he has elite upside imo and will be a pest off ball and create tons of transition opportunities. The free flowing nature of the NBA game is going to completely transform him from how he looked at Purdue, where he was stymied by the traditional post sets. His energy makes a difference even when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, which is what you want.
It isn't just about speed in the open court, though that can be important. It is about first step burst speed which forces the D to rotate in the halfcourt and the ability to make basic P&R reads or finish through contact at the basket. Hit your 3's and it is a huge bonus. Defend at an elite level and you have a can't miss prospect imo.
I can see Banchero getting to a Tobias Harris level. He hasn't hit his level of 3pt shooting yet (nor do I feel he is in the ballpark), which is why I am so confused how he is this obvious top 3. I do think he will function in more of a small ball role at times, as it would make sense with his strength and rebounding ability. His lack of agility could force him to guard bigs and then he could step out and punish them from 3. The issue is that there would be complete matador D in terms of rim protecting for the team in question and you could easily switch on him 1 on 1.
