All Things Luka Doncic

[Juree93]

podcast worth listening..

http://www.odetooden.com/home/2017/9/20/episode-40-the-young-prospects-of-eurobasket

description from OdeToOden

Spoiler:

Trevor Magnotti, of StepBack fame, joins me to cover the young prospects of the FIBA 2017 EuroBasket Tournament. We touch on overarching principles to take away, like why we should all watch more Euroleague, and how to evaluate athleticism in the european setting. Of course the main attraction was Luka Doncic and we spend a lot of time on him, but get to Cancar, Hilanson, and Radoncic too. Then we hit on Lauri Markkanen, Dragan Bender, Juancho

[Novocaine]

3. No way, nobody would even come close.

I mean, if you send them back in a time machine and put them through the same developmental path Doncic took and they react fine to moving to Spain at 14 years old and so on, sure, I can see a a few having a similar impact. Perhaps not quite as high, Doncic is very precocious in terms of physical development, but in the same ballpark, sure. Fultz for example would be a much different player -much closer to his eventual ceiling- if he already had seasons of practising and playing against pros under his belt. But that's not their premise - what they're saying is that this universe's 18 years old Fultz, etc, would have no chance of having the same impact. And they wouldn't - they'd get clobbered by guys much bigger, more experienced, more mature. Transitioning from high-school basketball to Doncic's level is basically impossible.

Idk if I can buy this.

When we had guys jumping from HS to the pros, did we not have some who were rotational players in the NBA?

Sure - and I can think of a couple who were actually able to provide positive contributions on the floor and were better than Doncic is, or will be next season: LeBron or Garnett, for example - two players that would have dominated college basketball as freshmen as probably no one before or after them. Howard maybe, although that Howard wouldn't have the kind of impact Doncic has in the same type of role in Europe. Moses Malone if you go far back. Other than those absolute freaks, most of those "rotational players" were just pretty bad players who were getting minutes because they were hot prospects.I don't know - rookie McGrady averaged 5/2/1 in a putrid .486 TS% playing 15mpg of no defense whatsoever pre-All-Star. Kobe, 7/2/1 in a mediocre .520 TS%. Kemp, 5/4 .482TS%. Rashard Lewis, 3/2, .411TS%. Monta Ellis, 4/2, .492TS%. JR Smith, 7/2/2, with excruciating .446TS% efficiency Most of those guards had huge turnover rates during that period. Little shot-creation responsibilites. PLenty of minutes against scrubs. They were scrubs themselves, it was their potential that earned their playing time (rightfully). I think if Doncic started playing in the NBA next October, he'd be vastly better off the gate than any of those guys. Imagine those guys -McGrady, Ellis, Kobe, etc- in the Summer before they even played their first NBA game, before going through a NBA camp, as the 2nd best player in a Eurobasket team - that team wouldn't win a single game. Or have a non-blowout.

So the question is if you see a LeBron/Garnett in any of those two drafts - not in terms of potential, but on how good they already are as HS seniors. I surely don't.

Make no mistake: Doncic is one of the best 18 years old ever. It's just that it doesn't really matter as much as some want to believe.

[BaDaBo]

"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.

To put things in perspective, Karl Anthony Towns, arguably one of the best prospects of the decade, wasn't seeing much playing time for the Dominican Republic in a similar (but weaker) tournament.

http://archive.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/p/q/Karl-Anthony%20TOWNS/pid/95045/_//players.html

If he wasn't getting playing time then what are we even talking about? Put Towns on an actual team for a full season and let him get minutes...he would produce.

In 2013 FIBA Americas Championship for Men he was 18 like Doncic this year. The real question is: "Why wasn't he getting time?".

Was a Dominican republic star player at his position?
Maybe he wasn't prepared for a larger role?
Maybe he couldn't outplay another player ( non star )for a larger role?
Did the coach not trust him enough ( for fair or unfair reasons)?

You can't just say he didn't play so you can't compare. I'm fairly sure Dominican republic wasn't coach by an idiot who wanted to lose games, so he decided not to play a player who would win him games.

Since Appolo is comparing both players at the same age and what they did on an international stage at that age I think his comparison/perspecitve is a valid one. Just my 5 cents.

[reanimator]

.I don't know - rookie McGrady averaged 5/2/1 in a putrid .486 TS% playing 15mpg of no defense whatsoever pre-All-Star. Kobe, 7/2/1 in a mediocre .520 TS%. Kemp, 5/4 .482TS%. Rashard Lewis, 3/2, .411TS%. Monta Ellis, 4/2, .492TS%. JR Smith, 7/2/2, with excruciating .446TS% efficiency

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

[reanimator]

In 2013 FIBA Americas Championship for Men he was 18 like Doncic this year. The real question is: "Why wasn't he getting time?".

Being that he put up 18/10 at age 19/20....its safe to say he could have produced at 18.

[Mirotic12]

In 2013 FIBA Americas Championship for Men he was 18 like Doncic this year. The real question is: "Why wasn't he getting time?".

Being that he put up 18/10 at age 19/20....its safe to say he could have produced at 18.

No it isn't. I watched that tournament. He was a foul machine and he was very timid on offense. His coach on that team was Calipari, who would have played him over anyone, if he was actually good enough.

No one that actually saw that tournament is going to agree with you.

3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.

"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.

And Ricky Rubio was doing things in Europe that other Euro prospects who turned out way better than him couldn't do so what is the significance of that?

How many times does the Rubio myth have to be debunked here? Like a 100 times, 500 times, 1000 times?

Again, for the upteemth time, Rubio was never a good player in Europe, not at any time. He was a good player in youth tournaments, and/or considering for his age. That was it. He was never a good player overall.

Comparing him with Doncic is an enormous insult to both Doncic and European basketball in general.

[Apollo64]

"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.

To put things in perspective, Karl Anthony Towns, arguably one of the best prospects of the decade, wasn't seeing much playing time for the Dominican Republic in a similar (but weaker) tournament.

http://archive.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/p/q/Karl-Anthony%20TOWNS/pid/95045/_//players.html

If he wasn't getting playing time then what are we even talking about? Put Towns on an actual team for a full season and let him get minutes...he would produce.

But if guys like Towns or even Giannis didn't do much against FIBA comp then maybe statistical production in international competition isn't predictive?

No, this shows that, in order to produce against senior FIBA comp, the bar for teenagers is set extremely high. This is not college.

Doncic is probably the only case in decades of an 18-year old who was able to produce at a high and sustained level in FIBA comp and more importantly, win.

[Bob8]

.I don't know - rookie McGrady averaged 5/2/1 in a putrid .486 TS% playing 15mpg of no defense whatsoever pre-All-Star. Kobe, 7/2/1 in a mediocre .520 TS%. Kemp, 5/4 .482TS%. Rashard Lewis, 3/2, .411TS%. Monta Ellis, 4/2, .492TS%. JR Smith, 7/2/2, with excruciating .446TS% efficiency

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

You will never understand how good Doncic is. Funny thing is, that you should be pleased with what the other guy is saying.

Btw. Doncic has put this numbers when he was most of the season 17 years old. He’s right numbers will be this year.

[reanimator]

No, this shows that, in order to produce against senior FIBA comp, the bar for teenagers is set extremely high. This is not college.

Only true for foreign prospects.

And by produce, you really mean get minutes.

[Novocaine]

.I don't know - rookie McGrady averaged 5/2/1 in a putrid .486 TS% playing 15mpg of no defense whatsoever pre-All-Star. Kobe, 7/2/1 in a mediocre .520 TS%. Kemp, 5/4 .482TS%. Rashard Lewis, 3/2, .411TS%. Monta Ellis, 4/2, .492TS%. JR Smith, 7/2/2, with excruciating .446TS% efficiency

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

Those are the numbers of a pretty good player in Europe - we know that because we just saw him showing he's among the very best European players, including NBAers. McGrady/Kobe/etc were scrubs who were rotational players only in the sense they'd get regular minutes. And that was the year after HS already. Check what Pelton say about the statistical impact in a historical context.

[reanimator]

.I don't know - rookie McGrady averaged 5/2/1 in a putrid .486 TS% playing 15mpg of no defense whatsoever pre-All-Star. Kobe, 7/2/1 in a mediocre .520 TS%. Kemp, 5/4 .482TS%. Rashard Lewis, 3/2, .411TS%. Monta Ellis, 4/2, .492TS%. JR Smith, 7/2/2, with excruciating .446TS% efficiency

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

Those are the numbers of a pretty good player in Europe - we know that because we just saw him showing he's among the very best European players, including NBAers. McGrady/Kobe/etc were scrubs who were rotational players only in the sense they'd get regular minutes. And that was the year after HS already. Check what Pelton say about the statistical impact in a historical context.

I hate to tell you this but "pretty good European player in Europe" = scrub in the NBA.

Can't be a "scrub" and a rotational player in the NBA. Even NBA backups are better than the best Euroleague players.

[Bob8]

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

Those are the numbers of a pretty good player in Europe - we know that because we just saw him showing he's among the very best European players, including NBAers. McGrady/Kobe/etc were scrubs who were rotational players only in the sense they'd get regular minutes. And that was the year after HS already. Check what Pelton say about the statistical impact in a historical context.

I hate to tell you this but "pretty good European player in Europe" = scrub in the NBA.

Can't be a "scrub" and a rotational player in the NBA. Even NBA backups are better than the best Euroleague players.

Your hate towards players/prospects from Europe is tangible. I wonder why you’re here in the first place?

[Apollo64]

No, this shows that, in order to produce against senior FIBA comp, the bar for teenagers is set extremely high. This is not college.

Only true for foreign prospects.

And by produce, you really mean get minutes.

How come?

[SportsGuy8]

Fairytales how skills and feeling for the game can be learned, are almost everytime only fairytales.

I've been saying this for years. Most busts, from both Europe and the US, happen because scouts mainly look at athletic abilities and expect that since a player is still young, he's going to one day go EUREKA, get it, and suddenly know how to play the game.

That almost never happens. The rare exceptions are the bigs who started playing basketball late in their teens. For everyone else it's true that if you're not a fundamentally sound player with at least a decent bball-IQ in your late-teens, you're never going to become one.

Well, there's this guy from some decades ago who had that reputation even into his 20s - a super-athletic ball-hog who'd get by his athletic ability and had little polish and skill to his game and, above all, didn't know how to win and how to play the right way. A selfish low IQ player who would take almost 30 shots per game, wasn't a team player, coudln't even shoot 20% from distance and would just jump over people to dunk stuff.

He ended up doing alright in the NBA though - he's the consensus best player in the history of the game, or at least was for a couple of decades.

I'm sure one could come up with a few other examples - say, the current MVP.

I understand selective memory phenomenons, but that take it to a whole new level. And of course athletic guys are overrepresented among busts - they're way overrepresented among high draft picks, which means they're overrepresented among guys with high expectations that can fall into the "bust" category. It's a consequence of the fact that Jordan was uber-athletic and Westbrook is uber-athletic and LeBron is uber-athletic and so on.

Wait, how does MJ even fit the argument and/or disprove my notion? Just because people keep saying that he didn't really know how to play the right way and win in his first couple of seasons and only later learned how to ... doesn't really make it so. It was just a very nice story for everyone to write about. He obviously improved with each year, as everyone does, but he also had MUCH better teammates around him later in his career. He really wasn't that much different of a player during his first 3-peat compared to a couple season before that, the only really glaring difference is that he started training 3s more. (2nd 3-peat is a different story, but that's because he needed to adjust his game due to age)

I wonder who has the selective memory here. You only seem to remember what people said and wrote about MJ, not how the situation actually was. That notion of him later learning to win and play the game the right way is highly exaggerated by everyone, mostly because people are too results oriented.

As for Westbrook, he's also the same TYPE of a player he always was and the type of player people expected him to be (just not THIS good). Sure, he had an adjustment period, and obviously his skills got slightly better and better with every season, but he's not that different of a player. He just went through every-year progression to get to this point. It's not like he didn't have a clue and is now a bball genius.

[HoopsMalone]

Doncic is 100% going #1.

Porter is trash comparatively. Wait until people see this guy in college, it will be a laughable comparison.

I'm from the USA and I agree with some of the points about fiba and European play not always translating but Doncic is a guaranteed stud.

He's arguably the best prospect ever at his age.



Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app

[SportsGuy8]

Even if he absolutely shines this season at Real, it's still not going to be 100%. Don't forget that most of the teams that are in the lottery are usually there for a reason - incompetence.

[Mirotic12]

Doncic is only putting up 7/4.5/3.5 on 44 FG% and 33 3pt% in an inferior league in similar minutes in an era with more spacing....so no way you can call what McGrady/Kobe/JR Smith/Josh Smith etc did as putrid or mediocre.

Those are the numbers of a pretty good player in Europe - we know that because we just saw him showing he's among the very best European players, including NBAers. McGrady/Kobe/etc were scrubs who were rotational players only in the sense they'd get regular minutes. And that was the year after HS already. Check what Pelton say about the statistical impact in a historical context.

I hate to tell you this but "pretty good European player in Europe" = scrub in the NBA.

Can't be a "scrub" and a rotational player in the NBA. Even NBA backups are better than the best Euroleague players.

False. Not a single bench player in NBA is as good as Sergio Llull and Vassilis Spanoulis.

Never mind that just in the last 10 years or so, probably a couple dozen or so NBA starters, 6th men, and rotation players (in the team's main 8 players) have gone from NBA to EuroLeague (while still in their prime), and done nothing in EuroLeague, or have not been any better in EuroLeague than they were in the NBA, or in fact, were better in the NBA than they were in EuroLeague.

NBA starters, plenty of them, have gone to EuroLeague and not done jack squat. So you are factually wrong.

[XTraderXL]

Those are the numbers of a pretty good player in Europe - we know that because we just saw him showing he's among the very best European players, including NBAers. McGrady/Kobe/etc were scrubs who were rotational players only in the sense they'd get regular minutes. And that was the year after HS already. Check what Pelton say about the statistical impact in a historical context.

I hate to tell you this but "pretty good European player in Europe" = scrub in the NBA.

Can't be a "scrub" and a rotational player in the NBA. Even NBA backups are better than the best Euroleague players.

False. Not a single bench player in NBA is as good as Sergio Llull and Vassilis Spanoulis.

Never mind that just in the last 10 years or so, probably a couple dozen or so NBA starters, 6th men, and rotation players (in the team's main 8 players) have gone from NBA to EuroLeague (while still in their prime), and done nothing in EuroLeague, or have not been any better in EuroLeague than they were in the NBA, or in fact, were better in the NBA than they were in EuroLeague.

NBA starters, plenty of them, have gone to EuroLeague and not done jack squat. So you are factually wrong.

LOL

[reanimator]

He's arguably the best prospect ever at his age.



Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app

There is no argument for him being a better prospect than Lebron. None.

[HoopsMalone]

He's arguably the best prospect ever at his age.



Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app

There is no argument for him being a better prospect than Lebron. None.

Of course there is.

You are saying that with the benefit of hindsight after seeing what LeBron became. Lebron was not better in high school or even his rookie year in the NBA than Doncic is right now. Granted his athleticism advantage narrows the gap down immensely when talking about him as a pure prospect.


Now that LeBron is the best player ever it's easy to say he was the better prospect. And don't get me wrong he was arguably the greatest prospect ever too.

Id say they are 1a and 1b for certain

Sent from my SM-N920V using RealGM mobile app