2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Colbinii]

Justin Edwards is just too athletic not to be drafted in the Top 20.

Huh? He's not that athletic and he's very old for a freshman.

Josh Minott, Kendall Brown, GG Jackson, Greg Brown were all more athletic than Justin Edwards and all went in the 2nd round. Jordan Walsh and Julian Phillips were just as athletic but went 2nd round.

Dillon Mitchell is more athletic than Edwards and returned to school because he wasn't gonna get drafted.

Or is this a joke?

I don't view just random traits as athletic. Edwards is far more athletic than most of those players [in my eyes] as he actualized his athleticism in a way the other player's don't.

Like did you see Josh Minott try to shoot a basketball? I consider the act of shooting the basketball as an athletic trait [Hand-eye coordination].

If you want to post to videos of specific athletic traits that Edwards doesn't show as well as some of those players, please show them, but to me just being long, lengthy and jumping high isn't how I use the term athleticism, but I could see how I am in a minority in this one.

[Hal14]

called it out in his thread, it's abnormally low, 12 attempts in 15 games is just absurd, and we can't make anything of his 92% from the FT line either because it's such a small sample size.

i dont know what it is, he's not a great athlete but that doesn't tell the whole story. maybe it's the system but haven't seen anything specific that would not allow him to attack more.

Ballo takes up a lot of room in the paint. Our backup center is also a big seven footer. However, you look at a guy like Bradley who is our backup pg and has no issues slashing.

Boswell is like a poor man’s mateen cleaves. He doesn’t have the body control cleaves had nor the agility. He’s going to be a solid backup. If you’re expecting anything more I think you’re in for a disappointment. My concern is that he’s also physically peaked

Jaden Bradley was very effective as a slasher at Alabama too. He's got more size and is just a different level athlete than Boswell.

Funny you mention Cleaves. I was actually thinking about Khalid El-Amin when thinking about a really good college PG but short, kind of a bowling ball shaped who could shoot but not great at driving to rim or finishing at rim, not a very good athlete..

[shangrila]

Now that the housekeeping is out of the way...

So there's a handful of small guards generally mocked at the end of the 1st and into the 2nd right now. The Boswells, Mintzes, Koleks, etc.

If you had to pick one of them to make it in the league, who would it be and why?

Judah Mintz (21 on Draft Day) - I really like his upside as a Microwave scorer off the bench.
Kylan Boswell (19 on Draft Day) - Youngest of the bunch by a significant margin, probably the highest upside in theory but his inability to get to the free throw line is a major red flag for me and smaller guard prospects. Best shooter of the bunch as well.
Tyler Kolek (23 on Draft Day) - He is so much older that it's hard to buy into him as a serious threat as a prospect, though he could come in right away and eat up 2nd unit minutes. I like him on a weaker team where he can direct and orchestrate and provide spacing for younger stars.
Tamin Lipsey (21 on Draft Day or right after--late June B-Day) - My Favorite of the group at the moment. Best defender in my eyes and while short has a strong frame and lower-body.

I go for Lipsey but think Boswell has the most intrigue and mystique about him while Mintz has the clearest path to having a defined role in the NBA.

Mintz is the type of player I've liked and gotten burned on in the past. Do you worry about his shooting, given it's low volume? And are there any concerns about that FTr, as I haven't looked into it but have heard that tends to be something that doesn't actually translate?

I'll need to look into Lipsey as well.

[shangrila]

I agree it's a statistical red flag, but if there's not an accompanying physical explanation for why it's so low, I can't make *too* much out of it. If you think it's so low because he's the worst athlete ever or something like that, then that's something. My guess is it has more to do with his role and the system than his inability to get to the rim if he chose to more often. Could be wrong, of course. But it seems like he can dribble and is athletic enough.

Do you worry there's a mentality aspect to it? And if so, do you view something like that as fixable (in general, I know every person/player is different)?

[Hal14]

Justin Edwards is just too athletic not to be drafted in the Top 20.

Huh? He's not that athletic and he's very old for a freshman.

Josh Minott, Kendall Brown, GG Jackson, Greg Brown were all more athletic than Justin Edwards and all went in the 2nd round. Jordan Walsh and Julian Phillips were just as athletic but went 2nd round.

Dillon Mitchell is more athletic than Edwards and returned to school because he wasn't gonna get drafted.

Or is this a joke?

I don't view just random traits as athletic. Edwards is far more athletic than most of those players [in my eyes] as he actualized his athleticism in a way the other player's don't.

Like did you see Josh Minott try to shoot a basketball? I consider the act of shooting the basketball as an athletic trait [Hand-eye coordination].

If you want to post to videos of specific athletic traits that Edwards doesn't show as well as some of those players, please show them, but to me just being long, lengthy and jumping high isn't how I use the term athleticism, but I could see how I am in a minority in this one.

That's not how I define athleticism either.

But I also don't consider shooting ability to fall under athleticism.

And Edwards is shooting what, like 24% from 3? So you're saying his shooting is good enough to go top 20? Nah.

[Colbinii]

Now that the housekeeping is out of the way...

So there's a handful of small guards generally mocked at the end of the 1st and into the 2nd right now. The Boswells, Mintzes, Koleks, etc.

If you had to pick one of them to make it in the league, who would it be and why?

Judah Mintz (21 on Draft Day) - I really like his upside as a Microwave scorer off the bench.
Kylan Boswell (19 on Draft Day) - Youngest of the bunch by a significant margin, probably the highest upside in theory but his inability to get to the free throw line is a major red flag for me and smaller guard prospects. Best shooter of the bunch as well.
Tyler Kolek (23 on Draft Day) - He is so much older that it's hard to buy into him as a serious threat as a prospect, though he could come in right away and eat up 2nd unit minutes. I like him on a weaker team where he can direct and orchestrate and provide spacing for younger stars.
Tamin Lipsey (21 on Draft Day or right after--late June B-Day) - My Favorite of the group at the moment. Best defender in my eyes and while short has a strong frame and lower-body.

I go for Lipsey but think Boswell has the most intrigue and mystique about him while Mintz has the clearest path to having a defined role in the NBA.

Mintz is the type of player I've liked and gotten burned on in the past. Do you worry about his shooting, given it's low volume? And are there any concerns about that FTr, as I haven't looked into it but have heard that tends to be something that doesn't actually translate?

I'll need to look into Lipsey as well.

What I do know is whoever the Timberwolves pick out of this bunch at the end of 1st/early 2nd, is going to be the player I think has the highest ceiling

[azcatz11]

called it out in his thread, it's abnormally low, 12 attempts in 15 games is just absurd, and we can't make anything of his 92% from the FT line either because it's such a small sample size.

i dont know what it is, he's not a great athlete but that doesn't tell the whole story. maybe it's the system but haven't seen anything specific that would not allow him to attack more.

Ballo takes up a lot of room in the paint. Our backup center is also a big seven footer. However, you look at a guy like Bradley who is our backup pg and has no issues slashing.

Boswell is like a poor man’s mateen cleaves. He doesn’t have the body control cleaves had nor the agility. He’s going to be a solid backup. If you’re expecting anything more I think you’re in for a disappointment. My concern is that he’s also physically peaked

Jaden Bradley was very effective as a slasher at Alabama too. He's got more size and is just a different level athlete than Boswell.

Funny you mention Cleaves. I was actually thinking about Khalid El-Amin when thinking about a really good college PG but short, kind of a bowling ball shaped who could shoot but not great at driving to rim or finishing at rim, not a very good athlete..

El-Amin is probably a better comp. Boswell is also a very streaky shooter which doesn’t bode well for him (limited sample size) If he was 6’3 it would be a different story but he’s probably around 6’0. PG is too stacked to say he could be a starter

[shangrila]

I don't understand how some mocks still have Edwards so high. It would actually surprise me if he's a OAD.

I could see him coming out and going higher than people expect.

Not to say that he deserves it but, similar to Collier, if they test well athletically and can shoot open shots in an empty gym for a workout then those 2 combined with the high school hype will have some team get infatuated and fall in love. At worst a playoff team with a set rotation for the next 2-3 years will shrug late in the 1st and take a swing on "potential".

I agree that he shouldn't come out though. Another year to work on his game and to likely see Reed, Rob and DJ all go might be good for him.

[Duke4life831]

Mark Mitchell shooting 12% from 3 LOL. Last time I checked he was shooting like 7% so he must have made a couple. It's hard to have a percentage that low because you actually have to shoot a decent amount.

It got to down to 4% then he made 2 in a game and it jumped up. His last 35 games he is shooting 19%.

These are basically all coming from wide open looks as well. Most teams are giving him the Ben Simmons treatment this year.

His shot is beyond broken and he’s not a high level defender. He’s not a NBA prospect.

He's also not an amazing athlete for an NBA 4. Good college player, though, Duke should be happy to have someone solid for 4 years!

Ya he’s just a college player and nothing more. And ya he could be a stud as an upperclassman. With that said I don’t think it will be in a Duke uniform. He has no role with the team next year with Flagg coming in and maybe VJ as well. The 3 and 4 will be all taken for Duke next year.

[Colbinii]

And are there any concerns about that FTr, as I haven't looked into it but have heard that tends to be something that doesn't actually translate?

This is hilarious to me. Where did you hear it?

Yeah, FTR isn't going to translate 1:1, but I have a hard time seeing a freshman who put up 45.2% FTR and then a Sophomore putting up nearly 70% FTR as something that is to be dismissed or explained away.

Here are some comparable Sophomore Years:

Judah Mintz: 56.3 TS%, 62.9% FTR, 23.2% AST%, 4.0% STL, 15.2% TOV, 29.3% USG%
Kemba Walker: 52.5 TS%, 53.6% FTR, 29.2% AST%, 3.4% STL, 17.3% TOV, 23.4 USG%
Marcus Smart: 55.2 TS%, 64.8% FTR, 30.1% AST%, 5.0% STL, 14.0% TOV, 29.2 USG%

But, I think the most comparable, and a more realistic outcome, is Scotty Pippen Jr [Sophomore Stats below]

57.5 TS%, 52.5 FTR, 36.9% AST%, 3.2% STL, 17.5% TOV%, 34.7% USG%

Scottie Pippen Jr was undrafted after his Junior Year. As high as I want to be on some of these guards, they just have such a low realistic ceiling that I make sure I don't get caught up in just the numbers and understand the other factors and realistic outcomes.

Dennis Smith Jr is another one, but Dennis Smith Jr, like Smart, were on the higher-end of the spectrum athletically [especially DSJ]. I think Mintz can get more out of his body than Kemba Walker though.

[babyjax13]

It got to down to 4% then he made 2 in a game and it jumped up. His last 35 games he is shooting 19%.

These are basically all coming from wide open looks as well. Most teams are giving him the Ben Simmons treatment this year.

His shot is beyond broken and he’s not a high level defender. He’s not a NBA prospect.

He's also not an amazing athlete for an NBA 4. Good college player, though, Duke should be happy to have someone solid for 4 years!

Ya he’s just a college player and nothing more. And ya he could be a stud as an upperclassman. With that said I don’t think it will be in a Duke uniform. He has no role with the team next year with Flagg coming in and maybe VJ as well. The 3 and 4 will be all taken for Duke next year.

I feel like they could play him at center some, too. Maybe he will transfer but they've had guys in the past whose role has changed based on the OAD players. Amile Jefferson was probably good enough to start on 98 percent of college teams from his Sophomore year onward, and certainly to play more than 20 minutes...but he just wasn't good enough on Duke to play more than 20ish minutes a game with Okafor, Parker and all those other amazing recruits they had.

[Duke4life831]

He's also not an amazing athlete for an NBA 4. Good college player, though, Duke should be happy to have someone solid for 4 years!

Ya he’s just a college player and nothing more. And ya he could be a stud as an upperclassman. With that said I don’t think it will be in a Duke uniform. He has no role with the team next year with Flagg coming in and maybe VJ as well. The 3 and 4 will be all taken for Duke next year.

I feel like they could play him at center some, too. Maybe he will transfer but they've had guys in the past whose role has changed based on the OAD players. Amile Jefferson was probably good enough to start on 98 percent of college teams from his Sophomore year onward, and certainly to play more than 20 minutes...but he just wasn't good enough on Duke to play more than 20ish minutes a game with Okafor, Parker and all those other amazing recruits they had.

I hope he’s not playing the 5 next year. He isn’t a rim protector in any sense of the word and is a subpar rebounder for his size. Plus Duke already has Stewart (if he doesnt leave), 5 star Pat Ngongba coming and and are recruiting Maluach as well. Just no room for him next year.

[EvanZ]

Justin Edwards is just too athletic not to be drafted in the Top 20.

Nah you have guys like Dillon Mitchell who aren't OAD and just as athletic. Coen Carr probably most athletic Freshman and he's not a OAD is he?

[EvanZ]

Justin Edwards is also super old. He's sophomore aged with productivity of a bad Freshman. Just not a great combo.

[shangrila]

And are there any concerns about that FTr, as I haven't looked into it but have heard that tends to be something that doesn't actually translate?

This is hilarious to me. Where did you hear it?

Yeah, FTR isn't going to translate 1:1, but I have a hard time seeing a freshman who put up 45.2% FTR and then a Sophomore putting up nearly 70% FTR as something that is to be dismissed or explained away.

Here are some comparable Sophomore Years:

Judah Mintz: 56.3 TS%, 62.9% FTR, 23.2% AST%, 4.0% STL, 15.2% TOV, 29.3% USG%
Kemba Walker: 52.5 TS%, 53.6% FTR, 29.2% AST%, 3.4% STL, 17.3% TOV, 23.4 USG%
Marcus Smart: 55.2 TS%, 64.8% FTR, 30.1% AST%, 5.0% STL, 14.0% TOV, 29.2 USG%

But, I think the most comparable, and a more realistic outcome, is Scotty Pippen Jr [Sophomore Stats below]

57.5 TS%, 52.5 FTR, 36.9% AST%, 3.2% STL, 17.5% TOV%, 34.7% USG%

Scottie Pippen Jr was undrafted after his Junior Year. As high as I want to be on some of these guards, they just have such a low realistic ceiling that I make sure I don't get caught up in just the numbers and understand the other factors and realistic outcomes.

Dennis Smith Jr is another one, but Dennis Smith Jr, like Smart, were on the higher-end of the spectrum athletically [especially DSJ]. I think Mintz can get more out of his body than Kemba Walker though.

It's been a throwaway comment I've heard over the years when I've heard others talking about prospects. As I said I haven't looked into it.

But to use the examples you provided, both Smart (career .264) and Walker (career .281) weren't able to replicate the same levels as they did in college. This isn't a knock on them per se as the league average is significantly lower than in college for all of these guys but it does raise the question as to Mintz's value offensively if his main consistent scoring output is at the free throw line. If that doesn't translate at a similar level that he had in college, can the rest of his game compensate to still make him a plus or even average offensive player?

I do believe that the cutoff for small guards is shooting, particularly for those that aren't high 1st rounders and so won't be guaranteed minutes/touches to highlight other elements of their game. That's the other part that concerns me about Mintz; the %s are decent but the attempts are low enough that it makes me wonder.

[TheSuzerain]

Johnny Furphy promoted to starter (that Elmarko Jackson hype was ill-informed).


Think Furphy is more of a 2025 draft guy but let's see how it goes.

[Chi town]

https://www.tankathon.com/players/tidjane-salaun

Thoughts on Salaun?

[babyjax13]

https://www.tankathon.com/players/tidjane-salaun

Thoughts on Salaun?

I've only watched two games, so take it with a grain of salt.

His stroke is really nice and I think he relocates rather well to get catch and shoot threes. He doesn't have strong ball handling to attack the rim or break down defenders, so at this point those threes and straight line drives seem like the extent of his offensive repertoire. He is really, really fast end to end, just kind of explodes from not moving to moving so he's going to get transition opportunities and he seems relatively decent at getting some second chance opportunities. Defensively his lateral explosiveness does not match his end-to-end speed. I think that improves with NBA training and getting down in his stance better. He also loses his man sometimes and seems a bit lost in a defensive scheme, but at other times can be pretty disruptive.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mark Mitchell shooting 12% from 3 LOL. Last time I checked he was shooting like 7% so he must have made a couple. It's hard to have a percentage that low because you actually have to shoot a decent amount.

his form is ugly and it's line drive. He'll have to completely overhaul it but if he's successful he's got a lot of other things going for him as a prospect like size, length, athleticism and effort. Probably should go somewhere else next year, maybe Gonzaga, where he could still be in the limelight but will have guaranteed playing time and the ability to showcase whatever improvements he hopefully makes.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I don't understand how some mocks still have Edwards so high. It would actually surprise me if he's a OAD.

I could see him coming out and going higher than people expect.

Not to say that he deserves it but, similar to Collier, if they test well athletically and can shoot open shots in an empty gym for a workout then those 2 combined with the high school hype will have some team get infatuated and fall in love. At worst a playoff team with a set rotation for the next 2-3 years will shrug late in the 1st and take a swing on "potential".

I agree that he shouldn't come out though. Another year to work on his game and to likely see Reed, Rob and DJ all go might be good for him.

I cannot remember if there's ever been a case where a guy was considered to be the #1 guy pre-draft and made scouts look worse than Edwards. He doesn't do anything well except being active. I wouldn't use a first round pick on him. There's too many guys that you can be confident will at least contribute at the next level or that have tantalizing upside, you'd take before him. The problem with him going back to college is that he's already an older US freshmen. He'd need to improve dramatically as a 3 pt shooter. But even that would only maybe make him a late first round pick.