Zach Edey, 7-4

[dolphinatik]

It's a risk sure but I'd draft Edey in the first round to the Heat. He has just as much chance at succeeding or failing as everyone else. Okc would work too, Indy, Denver, maybe a few others.

[FrodoBaggins]

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[BlazersBroncos]

Monster screens, elite hands and the simple but often lost art of keeping the ball high. These small things along with his arguably never before seen stamina for a guy his size have me betting in favor of Edey lately. I am now hoping Portland takes him 14 w/ the GSW pick.

[FrodoBaggins]

If Zach did reach his ultimate ceiling, what would his production and game look like in the NBA? Best case scenario, lands in the right circumstance and gets the keys to the castle.

I suppose it would most resemble how he played in his senior year at Purdue. Lots of ball screens into deep seals, dump-offs, lobs, and putbacks. With a healthy dose of post-up isolations - 5-7 per game like Embiid/Jokic. Maybe some spot-up and pick-and-pop jump shots at the three-point line and around the free-throw line area if the shooting pans out.

With enough minutes and a primary role, he's getting 15 or so highly efficient points a night playing the rim-runner role. That extra 5-10 points would depend on the self-creation from the post-up and shooting ability off the ball.

Rough estimate, probably 20-25 ppg, 12-15 rpg, 2-4 apg, 0.3-0.5 spg, 2.0-2.5 bpg with a 60-65% FG, 63-66% TS, and a 70-75% FT. An inside-out offense with four shooters like 2008-2012 Orlando or Purdue of recent years.

The NBA star player in the last 20 years that's game most resembles Edey's is probably Dwight Howard's. He played the same way with lots of deep post-up touches that came out of high-low ball screen actions. Shaq didn't really do that outside of maybe his first couple of seasons in the league. Yao Ming was much more of a finesse guy who faced up for jump shots out of the post.

Both Edey/Howard are/were monster screeners, finishers, rebounders, and foul drawers.

Dwight was good for 20.5 ppg on 60% FG and 62% TS during that 2008-2012 period, including a huge playoff sample of games. Almost six seasons worth of games. Adjusted for today's 2pt%, those numbers are more like 23 ppg, 63% FG, and 65% TS.

The obvious difference between the two is that Dwight is more athletic while Zach is bigger, stronger, and more skilled. More frequently, Howard played above the rim, got out in transition, and faced up out of the post. In comparison, Edey has a softer touch and is simply a better post-up scorer in isolation (1.04 ppp [2024 Edey] vs. 0.93 ppp [2011 Howard]) and a free-throw shooter.

The big x-factor skill here is the shooting. What if he becomes a Lopez/Turner-level shooter? Myles has averaged 36.5% 3PT on 4.1 attempts over the last two seasons. Lopez has averaged 37.0% 3PT on 4.9 attempts over the last two seasons.

That's 4.5 points per game and 5.4 points per game respectively. It has taken a rim-runner like Turner and turned him into a 17-18 ppg guy and he can't create for himself. If Clint Capela or Rudy Gobert had been able to shoot like that they would've been borderline 20 ppg guys. Pretty remarkable for zero creation ability. I wonder if Clingan might be able to become that...

[FrodoBaggins]

If he does, NBA draft guru Sam Vecenie of The Athletic believes there could be a fit. While appearing on "The Knicks Film School" podcast, Vecenie explained why he thinks Edey would be a good fit for Tom Thibodeau's team.

"The reason that I think [Thibodeau] would like Edey is that Edey is an ass-kicker," Vecenie said. "There's not really another way to put what Zach Edey does on the court. He is an awesome screener, which is really important for [the Knicks] offense. He flips screens, he re-screens, he's just really good in terms of getting his man some separation.

"He's not the best rim-gravity threat or anything. Purdue would often kind of roll him into post-ups, because that's the way it worked in college. Zach Edey was way bigger than everybody. Here's the thing: Zach Edey is still going to be way bigger than everybody in the NBA. It's just going to be slightly less bigger than everybody in the NBA. When you're 7-foot-4 without shoes and you have a 7' 10 1/2" wingspan, you're still going to be an enormous human."

Vecenie continued, saying he believes Edey will be better on defense than some project.

"I think [Thibodeau] would like the fact that Zach improved a lot in terms of drop coverage this past year. I actually think he's a pretty okay — like, I feel okay about him in drop."

Vecenie said that while Edey's foot work needs to improve, Edey is quicker laterally than people realize and that he uses his size and length to make things hard on offensive opponents.

Additionally, Vecenie said that Edey is in "unbelievable shape" and handled big minutes in the NCAA Tournament without any issues.

"He is one of the most well-conditioned athletes for his size that I have seen, point blank," Vecenie said.

Vecenie did note that Edey may potentially struggle in recovery and fastbreak situations, potentially allowing 5-on-4 opportunities for opponents.

"I think the screening, the rim protection, the drop coverage stuff, and the toughness, the rebounding, I think that Thibs would really like that," Vecenie said.

[FarBeyondDriven]

If he does, NBA draft guru Sam Vecenie of The Athletic believes there could be a fit. While appearing on "The Knicks Film School" podcast, Vecenie explained why he thinks Edey would be a good fit for Tom Thibodeau's team.

"The reason that I think [Thibodeau] would like Edey is that Edey is an ass-kicker," Vecenie said. "There's not really another way to put what Zach Edey does on the court. He is an awesome screener, which is really important for [the Knicks] offense. He flips screens, he re-screens, he's just really good in terms of getting his man some separation.

"He's not the best rim-gravity threat or anything. Purdue would often kind of roll him into post-ups, because that's the way it worked in college. Zach Edey was way bigger than everybody. Here's the thing: Zach Edey is still going to be way bigger than everybody in the NBA. It's just going to be slightly less bigger than everybody in the NBA. When you're 7-foot-4 without shoes and you have a 7' 10 1/2" wingspan, you're still going to be an enormous human."

Vecenie continued, saying he believes Edey will be better on defense than some project.

"I think [Thibodeau] would like the fact that Zach improved a lot in terms of drop coverage this past year. I actually think he's a pretty okay — like, I feel okay about him in drop."

Vecenie said that while Edey's foot work needs to improve, Edey is quicker laterally than people realize and that he uses his size and length to make things hard on offensive opponents.

Additionally, Vecenie said that Edey is in "unbelievable shape" and handled big minutes in the NCAA Tournament without any issues.

"He is one of the most well-conditioned athletes for his size that I have seen, point blank," Vecenie said.

Vecenie did note that Edey may potentially struggle in recovery and fastbreak situations, potentially allowing 5-on-4 opportunities for opponents.

"I think the screening, the rim protection, the drop coverage stuff, and the toughness, the rebounding, I think that Thibs would really like that," Vecenie said.

well if "draft guru" Vecenie and Givony like him... They might be the worst draft evaluators of the bunch

[Big J]

25, 15 & 2? You’re living in a fantasy world Frodo.

[JRoy]

As a rookie?

12-16 mpg, 7-10 ppg, 6-8 rpg, 1 bpg.

Will get cooked from time to time but size will deter drives and disrupt shots in the paint.

[DOT]

As a rookie?

12-16 mpg, 7-10 ppg, 6-8 rpg, 1 bpg.

Will get cooked from time to time but size will deter drives and disrupt shots in the paint.

So basically current day Andre Drummond.

[JRoy]

As a rookie?

12-16 mpg, 7-10 ppg, 6-8 rpg, 1 bpg.

Will get cooked from time to time but size will deter drives and disrupt shots in the paint.

So basically current day Andre Drummond.

Maybe too optimistic.

I do expect serious production in low minutes year one.

[Big J]

As a rookie?

12-16 mpg, 7-10 ppg, 6-8 rpg, 1 bpg.

Will get cooked from time to time but size will deter drives and disrupt shots in the paint.

So basically current day Andre Drummond.

Maybe too optimistic.

I do expect serious production in low minutes year one.

Boban also had serious production in low minutes year one.

[JRoy]

So basically current day Andre Drummond.

Maybe too optimistic.

I do expect serious production in low minutes year one.

Boban also had serious production in low minutes year one.

Did Boban accumulate the same kind of accolades as Edey? Or log heavy minutes on any level?

[FrodoBaggins]

Comparing Boban and Zach is foolish because Edey is so far beyond him athletically. He's in a completely different stratosphere when it comes to speed, power, agility, and endurance. The only comparisons that should be made have to do with size and per minute/per possession scoring production.

[FrodoBaggins]

25, 15 & 2? You’re living in a fantasy world Frodo.

25 is the high end of my 20-25. A player reaching his ceiling is unlikely for all prospects. But this is just a fun hypothetical. Do I think this is likely to happen? Of course not. And even if he was capable of it, I'm not sure any team would give him the opportunity anyway. The type of player that he is in not en vogue.

What do you think is Edey's absolute ceiling given he lands in the perfect circumstance, proves a good enough defender to be out there for 30-36 minutes per game, and is given the primary scoring role? I'd be interested to see your opinion and I know you're not high on him at all.

With starter minutes and the primary scoring role, I think this is how his scoring breaks down:

- 13-15 points from the rim-runner possessions
- 5-8 points from post-up possessions
- 3-5 points from spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting possessions (Realistic but unlikely)

These are all just hypothetical guestimates so it's more or less a shot in the dark. But I see no reason why he can't be doing Rudy/Capela numbers purely from rim-running if he's out there for enough minutes. And I think there's a possibility he could be good enough to post up as much as Embiid and Jokic. 1.10 ppp on 5-7 attempts wouldn't surprise me.

The shooting is the real wildcard element. But the most unlikely skill development.

[FrodoBaggins]

I remember breaking down Giannis' scoring numbers earlier this year. If I recall correctly, roughly 20-22 ppg came from extremely efficient sources like the PnR (both as a ball handler and roll man), offensive rebounding, cutting, and transition. The extra 8-10 ppg were from low-quality sources like isolation, spot-up shooting, hand-off plays, and post-up plays. And his points per possession on these plays absolutely sucked. Gratuitous superstar touches basically...

Makes you think Milwaukee would be better if Giannis was a 20-25 ppg guy. But good luck getting him to do that.

[lastb1ckman]

So basically current day Andre Drummond.

Maybe too optimistic.

I do expect serious production in low minutes year one.

Boban also had serious production in low minutes year one.

Boban was also 27 his rookie season, Edey will be 22.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

25, 15 & 2? You’re living in a fantasy world Frodo.

25 is the high end of my 20-25. A player reaching his ceiling is unlikely for all prospects. But this is just a fun hypothetical. Do I think this is likely to happen? Of course not. And even if he was capable of it, I'm not sure any team would give him the opportunity anyway. The type of player that he is in not en vogue.

What do you think is Edey's absolute ceiling given he lands in the perfect circumstance, proves a good enough defender to be out there for 30-36 minutes per game, and is given the primary scoring role? I'd be interested to see your opinion and I know you're not high on him at all.

With starter minutes and the primary scoring role, I think this is how his scoring breaks down:

- 13-15 points from the rim-runner possessions
- 5-8 points from post-up possessions
- 3-5 points from spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting possessions (Realistic but unlikely)

These are all just hypothetical guestimates so it's more or less a shot in the dark. But I see no reason why he can't be doing Rudy/Capela numbers purely from rim-running if he's out there for enough minutes. And I think there's a possibility he could be good enough to post up as much as Embiid and Jokic. 1.10 ppp on 5-7 attempts wouldn't surprise me.

The shooting is the real wildcard element. But the most unlikely skill development.

The Raptors would give him a significant role on the offensive end, as long as he can stay on the floor defensively

[Big J]

25, 15 & 2? You’re living in a fantasy world Frodo.

25 is the high end of my 20-25. A player reaching his ceiling is unlikely for all prospects. But this is just a fun hypothetical. Do I think this is likely to happen? Of course not. And even if he was capable of it, I'm not sure any team would give him the opportunity anyway. The type of player that he is in not en vogue.

What do you think is Edey's absolute ceiling given he lands in the perfect circumstance, proves a good enough defender to be out there for 30-36 minutes per game, and is given the primary scoring role? I'd be interested to see your opinion and I know you're not high on him at all.

With starter minutes and the primary scoring role, I think this is how his scoring breaks down:

- 13-15 points from the rim-runner possessions
- 5-8 points from post-up possessions
- 3-5 points from spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting possessions (Realistic but unlikely)

These are all just hypothetical guestimates so it's more or less a shot in the dark. But I see no reason why he can't be doing Rudy/Capela numbers purely from rim-running if he's out there for enough minutes. And I think there's a possibility he could be good enough to post up as much as Embiid and Jokic. 1.10 ppp on 5-7 attempts wouldn't surprise me.

The shooting is the real wildcard element. But the most unlikely skill development.

Of course he could put up those numbers in some hypothetical scenario where the coach dumps him the ball down low on every possession. The problem is that is a fantasy world scenario that throws offensive efficiency and post defense out the window.

[FrodoBaggins]

:noway:

25, 15 & 2? You’re living in a fantasy world Frodo.

25 is the high end of my 20-25. A player reaching his ceiling is unlikely for all prospects. But this is just a fun hypothetical. Do I think this is likely to happen? Of course not. And even if he was capable of it, I'm not sure any team would give him the opportunity anyway. The type of player that he is in not en vogue.

What do you think is Edey's absolute ceiling given he lands in the perfect circumstance, proves a good enough defender to be out there for 30-36 minutes per game, and is given the primary scoring role? I'd be interested to see your opinion and I know you're not high on him at all.

With starter minutes and the primary scoring role, I think this is how his scoring breaks down:

- 13-15 points from the rim-runner possessions
- 5-8 points from post-up possessions
- 3-5 points from spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting possessions (Realistic but unlikely)

These are all just hypothetical guestimates so it's more or less a shot in the dark. But I see no reason why he can't be doing Rudy/Capela numbers purely from rim-running if he's out there for enough minutes. And I think there's a possibility he could be good enough to post up as much as Embiid and Jokic. 1.10 ppp on 5-7 attempts wouldn't surprise me.

The shooting is the real wildcard element. But the most unlikely skill development.

Of course he could put up those numbers in some hypothetical scenario where the coach dumps him the ball down low on every possession. The problem is that is a fantasy world scenario that throws offensive efficiency and post defense out the window.

How so? How would 1.10 ppp on 5-7 post-up attempts be an inefficient offensive play? The league average half-court offensive play is worth 0.98 ppp and the number-one half-court offense per play was Boston and they scored at 1.06 ppp. FYI: play excludes offensive rebounds as they're not planned for necessarily. Although certain types of shots generate more second-chance points.

Zach's deep post-up game would generate a lot of open looks from three as well.

In this ceiling hypothetical, it's an efficient play and not unrealistic. Zach scored at 1.04 ppp on like 15 post-up possessions per game this season. There's no reason why he couldn't shoot a similar or slightly higher ppp on half the volume of shots. The shot selection would naturally improve. This season, Embiid and Jokic both did around 1.14 ppp on 6 attempts. AD did 1.06 ppp on 4 attempts.

Zach just didn't have a great PnR partner at Purdue to feed him more easy shots playing the rim-runner role. Had to rely on his post-up game more. You stick him out there with NBA-level talent and he's going to get a number of easy baskets per game he wasn't getting at Purdue.

[Big J]

:noway:

25 is the high end of my 20-25. A player reaching his ceiling is unlikely for all prospects. But this is just a fun hypothetical. Do I think this is likely to happen? Of course not. And even if he was capable of it, I'm not sure any team would give him the opportunity anyway. The type of player that he is in not en vogue.

What do you think is Edey's absolute ceiling given he lands in the perfect circumstance, proves a good enough defender to be out there for 30-36 minutes per game, and is given the primary scoring role? I'd be interested to see your opinion and I know you're not high on him at all.

With starter minutes and the primary scoring role, I think this is how his scoring breaks down:

- 13-15 points from the rim-runner possessions
- 5-8 points from post-up possessions
- 3-5 points from spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting possessions (Realistic but unlikely)

These are all just hypothetical guestimates so it's more or less a shot in the dark. But I see no reason why he can't be doing Rudy/Capela numbers purely from rim-running if he's out there for enough minutes. And I think there's a possibility he could be good enough to post up as much as Embiid and Jokic. 1.10 ppp on 5-7 attempts wouldn't surprise me.

The shooting is the real wildcard element. But the most unlikely skill development.

Of course he could put up those numbers in some hypothetical scenario where the coach dumps him the ball down low on every possession. The problem is that is a fantasy world scenario that throws offensive efficiency and post defense out the window.

How so? How would 1.10 ppp on 5-7 post-up attempts be an inefficient offensive play? The league average half-court offensive play is worth 0.98 ppp and the number-one half-court offense per play was Boston and they scored at 1.06 ppp. FYI: play excludes offensive rebounds as they're not planned for necessarily. Although certain types of shots generate more second-chance points.

Zach's deep post-up game would generate a lot of open looks from three as well.

In this ceiling hypothetical, it's an efficient play and not unrealistic. Zach scored at 1.04 ppp on like 15 post-up possessions per game this season. There's no reason why he couldn't shoot a similar or slightly higher ppp on half the volume of shots. The shot selection would naturally improve. This season, Embiid and Jokic both did around 1.14 ppp on 6 attempts. AD did 1.06 ppp on 4 attempts.

Zach just didn't have a great PnR partner at Purdue to feed him more easy shots playing the rim-runner role. Had to rely on his post-up game more. You stick him out there with NBA-level talent and he's going to get a number of easy baskets per game he wasn't getting at Purdue.

He's also going to be going up against legit 7' NBA dudes, not 6'8" college accountants. Drew Timme also killed it against those kinda guys, but nobody would consider running their offense through him on the next level.