The-Power wrote:yoyoboy wrote:And recently it seems all the bigs drafted high lately either bust or take forever to develop - Isaac, JJJ, Wiseman, Hayes, Bagley, Bamba, WCJ - aside from Ayton.
Even with Ayton you can say that he wasn't exactly as good as his fans expected him to be despite decent boxscore numbers.
Yep, labeling Ayton as the huge win for highly-touted bigs from the past 5 or so drafts when you have real franchise-altering talents like Luka, Trae, Tatum, Zion, SGA, Morant, Ball, and Mitchell coming out during that same time period is very telling.
People like to say that we're seeing the return of the big man now after Golden State's run made a lot of people question the future of the position. But looking at recent history, in general it just doesn't seem like a wise investment to take a big with such a high pick in the draft. People say you have to make exceptions when you have unicorns like Mobley but even the original "unicorn" himself in Porzingis isn't exactly panning out like people thought he would either.
Davis is a rarity in that he was a big with legitimate guard movement, whereas Mobley is a true big who just moves well for a big. Jokic is the exception to the rule. He was never supposed to be this good and it helps being a better playmaker than nearly every player (not just bigs) in NBA history, being a dominant inside scorer, and being able to shoot. Embiid is the rare player in today's pace and space league who actually commands double teams on post ups because he's such an unstoppable interior scorer. KAT is the best shooting center in history with a well-rounded offensive game, and people question how valuable he really is. Giannis if you count him as a big is a Davis-like Freak who can play point guard for a team. Maybe it's not ideal in the long term, but he has that ability to handle and drive from the perimeter, not just be a Bam-like playmaker out of the high post.
And maybe that's the best comparison for Mobley in terms of translatability? Adebayo. Someone who's switchable on defense, passes well, and ideally probably shouldn't be a top 2 scoring option for your team. I think it's important when projecting to visualize how prospects will actually fit into NBA roles that are conducive to real team success, and so you kinda have to look around the league and see who they can emulate. I've had Mobley as my number one for a while now, but the more I think about it, the more scared I am thinking about taking him so high in the draft as a Cavs fan. Someone like Suggs just seems like the safer pick, and he's the classic example of the NBA-ready guard that scouts mistakenly let drop low because they perceive him as low ceiling. It's so easy to see Suggs fitting into that Lowry/Chauncey/Conley/Parker/Kidd mold of just being a winning PG with leadership on contending/championship teams. He might not turn into the most explosive scorer - which is the appeal of Green - but would anyone be surprised to see him rating high in the impact metrics year-after-year because he's just damn good at every aspect of the game?
Aside from the concerns over drafting a non-generational big so high in general, Mobley's body type really makes me wary. It's not just that he's skinny. He has a really high center of gravity due to his high hips and a narrower frame, which means even if he's able to successfully pack on 25 or so pounds, I'm not sure he'll be able to be physical enough in the paint to be the defensive force he was in college, rebound well, or be a great inside scorer. Watching AD in college, even though he was about the same weight, it was clear that he was still able to be physical to a degree and rebound at a level Mobley just couldn't. It's concerning how much of a child some no-namer bigs with a little bit of size would make Mobley look at times. If he can't play the 5, that really hurts Mobley's case in my opinion. And while you can hope he turns into a sharpshooter, he doesn't project to be more than okay.
People talk about his PnR defense/switchability but the main thing that's exciting about Mobley is his extremely rare playmaking for his age/size - which is also what really separates him from JJJ for example. Bigs that young aren't supposed to post numbers like 4.2 assists/3.9 turnovers. In addition to it boding well for his NBA playmaking, good passing metrics tend to correlate well with good defensive ability in the NBA. So coupled with his combination of a 7'4 wingspan, rim protection ability, fluidity, and proven record of being able to anchor the #6 defense in the country...you figure he has to be a dominant defender in the NBA in spite of his frame, right? It's just tough because there's so much to like with him and yet so many question marks. And while I love the idea of my Cavs having our big of the future and not picking yet another guard to make the Sexton and Garland problem even more crowded, I don't know if we can afford to be the team to take such a risk. Or if we're the team who can actually develop him properly in the way he needs. Maybe it makes more sense to go with Suggs and then try to flip Sexton for a better-fitting young piece.
