2024 NBA Draft Thread

[JMAC3]

How many players in the top 10 last year would you trade for the #1 pick this year?

From what we currently know?

Ausar, Black, Coulibaly, Walker, Hendricks, Wallace

Yeah I suppose the #1 is a bit aggressive.

If I changed it to #3 and we took away what we know of NBA careers and just went back in time and viewed them as prospects.

I would probably rather have Walker, Ausar, and maybe Black just from a prospect standpoint then whoever is left at #3 this year.

[Colbinii]

How many players in the top 10 last year would you trade for the #1 pick this year?

From what we currently know?

Ausar, Black, Coulibaly, Walker, Hendricks, Wallace

Yeah I suppose the #1 is a bit aggressive.

If I changed it to #3 and we took away what we know of NBA careers and just went back in time and viewed them as prospects.

I would probably rather have Walker, Ausar, and maybe Black just from a prospect standpoint then whoever is left at #3 this year.

I don't even have tiers yet so I wouldn't know about #3. I think the upside of players like Cody Williams, Ja'Kobe Walter, Ron Holland, Zaccharie Risacher and Tidjane Salaun all are intriguing enough where I would take a gamble on them over the lower-upside of the players I originally listed.

I actually don't see a huge difference in this draft to last draft when comparing the end of the Top 10/Lottery.

[Colbinii]

I see some Otto Porter Jr in Kyshawn George

[The-Power]

How many players in the top 10 last year would you trade for the #1 pick this year?

That depends: do we use what we know today as a reference point or what we knew back then? And are we looking at the actual top 10 that was drafted or our personal big board?

Looking at my own big board and based on what we knew at the time of the draft: 3-8 players. That's with the idea of Cody Williams at #1 in mind. If a different player emerges for me that may change but I think it's almost impossible that it will be more than 8 players. I think Cody's somewhere in that third tier (3-9 range) that I had last year.

If we look at the actual top 10 and what we know now about them, I still think it's similar. I definitely don't have him ahead of Victor and Miller. Everyone else is at least debatable.

[clyde21]

the top player in this class would go no higher than 5th last year, and that's being generous.

[crows2]

I actually don't see a huge difference in this draft to last draft when comparing the end of the Top 10/Lottery.

As has been the case all year, the depth of this draft will be fine, just as it is every year. It’s the top 3-4 picks this year that are looking weak compared to normal years.

The top pick this year wouldn’t go in the top 4 last year as Clyde said, and in my opinion wouldn’t go in the top 3 of most drafts. They’d be absolutely fine prospects from pick 4 downwards most years, so the depth will be there.

[clyde21]

it isnt just about the top picks or depth, to me its about archetypes. is there enough shooting? is there enough athleticism? is there enough two-way guys? is there enough lead guards or point-forwards? etc.

i just don't really see that this year. you have guys that will play in the NBA no doubt, guys like Flip and Reed and Wagner and JaKobe...but not necessarily great projectable archetypes.

who's even the best center in this class? no one can really answer. who's the best projectable shooter? no one really answer. who's the best two-way guy? are there any point forwards and legitimate lead guards? who's the best athlete? this is the stuff teams look for.

last year if someone asked who was the best athlete you'd get the Thompson twins. if you were asked about shooters you'd Hawkins or Dick or Howard or Murray. If you were asked about center you'd get Wemby. if you were asked about high-ceiling two way wings, you'd get Hendricks or Jarace Walker. if you were asked about guards you'd get Black and Scoot and Cason and Podz.

Doesnt mean all these guys are going to be great in the NBA and everyone in 2024 won't, development is never 100% linear and there are always good players from every class, but when you combine how it is murky at the top, lack of clear and promising archetypes, the highest productivity guys are guys with mission critical flaws like Dilly and Sheppard, its not hard to see why people look at this as a poor class.

right now its 100% reliant on the international crop which is fine if it pans out but those are always a huge hit or miss imo and a tough eval.

[clyde21]

thats why I am excited about a guy like Furphy if he continues to play well b/c thats the exact type of archetype that makes the middle 1st round exciting if he continues to play well. or a guy like Ivisic if he's legit who can propel a class just by virtue of the type of player he is if he also gets there. which is why I am also high on Buzelis and Castle, because it's the archetype more than anything else for me.

but when the lotto is full of guys like Sheppard and Dilly and Wagner and Jakobe and Filipowski then it's just not a great class, even if those guys become productive NBA players.

[BigGargamel]

Unless he falls off, I'm safely mocking Cody Williams at #1. I'm not calling him Brandon Miller, but he definitely looks like the best mix of upside and comfortable projectability. If you're a miserable team like the Pistons or Blazers and you land the number one pick, take the guy and don't think twice. He won't help you win 30 more games next year, but you can safely plug him in as a starter or sixth man right away and not worry about him screwing up too much. The Buffs have been playing great and he's just a consistent 20 point per game scorer.

[mattao313]

Besides the first two guys out of last year's draft (Wembanyama&Miller) I like a lot of the top guys from this draft more to be honest. Maybe I'm crazy though lmao

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

[FarBeyondDriven]

1) who's even the best center in this class?

Sarr

2) who's the best projectable shooter?

Knecht, Risacher, Karaban, Walter, Furphy, Smith

3) who's the best two-way guy?

Walter, Ndongo, Williams, Castle, Johnson, Mgbako, Carrington, Watkins

4) are there any point forwards and legitimate lead guards?

Collier, Carrington, Castle, Topic, Mitchell, Nunez, Proctor

5) who's the best athlete?

Holland

these are all pretty easy questions to answer imo. You just have to be familiar with the prospects and good at evaluating them

but when the lotto is full of guys like Sheppard and Dilly and Wagner and Jakobe and Filipowski then it's just not a great class, even if those guys become productive NBA players.

whose lottery is full of these guys? If these are your lottery picks I think I just figured out why you're so down on this class. Walter is the only stud and high lottery talent and Filipowski might just sneak into it. If you've got Sheppard, Dillingham and Wagner as lottery picks of course you think this class is bad.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Besides the first two guys out of last year's draft (Wembanyama&Miller) I like a lot of the top guys from this draft more to be honest. Maybe I'm crazy though lmao

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Last draft wasn't very good. Despite Wembanyama I found it to be pretty average. I really liked Wemby of course, Scoot, Miller, Amen, Coulibaly and Walker. But I don't expect any of them besides Wembanyama to be all-nba, heck, probably not even all-stars. But there's a decent amount of starters and a lot of role players which is pretty typical for NBA draft classes. People have to remember that Miller and the twins were 20 y/o on draft night. It's not very fair to compare them to 18 -19 y/o. Who knows how improved all of these kids in this year's draft will be by the time they hit 20 y/o?

[The-Power]

1) who's even the best center in this class?

Sarr

You could be right but I don't think that's a great endorsement of the draft. I hope we'll eventually look at Ivisic as the best C prospect because that would make the draft a lot more exciting.

2) who's the best projectable shooter?

Knecht, Risacher, Karaban, Walter, Furphy, Smith

I don't think all of them project to be great shooters but I tend to agree that the shooting isn't bad in this class (certainly Sheppard deserves a mention over some of these guys, too).

3) who's the best two-way guy?

Walter, Ndongo, Williams, Castle, Johnson, Mgbako, Carrington, Watkins

Here I have some major disagreements. A bunch of the players you listed look more like one-way guys. Mgbako is a pretty bad defender. Walter is at best average. Castle currently is pretty much only good on defense although I understand projecting his offense to come around. Watkins as of now would only have a chance at NBA minutes due to defense, he's hard to project as a 2-way player in the NBA right now and he's currently maybe a 2nd round pick I guess, so I don't think he belongs in a ‘best player of a certain archetype’ by default. Too premature to put Carrington in this category for me as well. Ndongo's offense is too bad right now to be counted as a good two-way player, too. And which Johnson, Kobe?

I'm surprised you didn't mention Holland and McCullar. I think these players fit the category a lot better even as they are clearly no sure things either (McCullar needs his shooting to translate, and Holland needs to play better fundamental defense in addition to making his offense work – but both seems at least realistic).

4) are there any point forwards and legitimate lead guards?

Collier, Carrington, Castle, Topic, Mitchell, Nunez, Proctor

I mean, these are Guards. Which one of these is a point forward or a lead guard at the NBA level? Topic maybe. Collier if you're really high on him but I doubt he gets the keys to an NBA team anytime soon. The rest cannot be realistically expected to be lead guards in the NBA. That would be all based on hope.

5) who's the best athlete?

Holland

Yeah, he's a great athlete. But I think it also demonstrates that this class lacks some high-end athleticism. I mean, who besides Holland is a truly noteworthy athlete and projected to go in the first round? Ryan Dunn and that's it? Maybe Sarr?

[Colbinii]

Nunez as a lead guard? He seems like a scoring guard without a ton of burst. I actually like him as a late 1st/early 2nd, but that doesn't mean I can easily see him being a lead guard.

[JMAC3]

As has been the case all year, the depth of this draft will be fine, just as it is every year. It’s the top 3-4 picks this year that are looking weak compared to normal years.

The top pick this year wouldn’t go in the top 4 last year as Clyde said, and in my opinion wouldn’t go in the top 3 of most drafts. They’d be absolutely fine prospects from pick 4 downwards most years, so the depth will be there.

I am not really that confident in any part of this draft to be honest.

The top seems weak. Even the 5-10 range seems pretty bad. Grady Dick is probably like 5-6th on most draft boards if he were in college and in this class, he went 12th last year. Is Jakobe Walter really significantly better than Keyonte? Who went 16th and Walter is a top 5 discussion this class.

Depending on the mocks or big boards McCuller/Knecht are lottery guys at age 23. Not saying they can't play but you look at last years class and there was real talent that had people questioning if Jacquez or Sasser were even first rounders. Jacquez went 18th and most people in the moment were surprised he went that early. He turned out to be a great pick, but feels like Knecht and McCuller are so high out of necessity this year due to anyone feeling good enough to push them down.

[Colbinii]

As has been the case all year, the depth of this draft will be fine, just as it is every year. It’s the top 3-4 picks this year that are looking weak compared to normal years.

The top pick this year wouldn’t go in the top 4 last year as Clyde said, and in my opinion wouldn’t go in the top 3 of most drafts. They’d be absolutely fine prospects from pick 4 downwards most years, so the depth will be there.

The top seems weak. Even the 5-10 range seems pretty bad. Grady Dick is probably like 5-6th on most draft boards if he were in college and in this class, he went 12th last year. Is Jakobe Walter really significantly better than Keyonte? Who went 16th and Walter is a top 5 discussion this class.

Why can't Ja'Kobe fall into the teens in this draft the same way Keyonte went at #16?

What if Keyonte becomes a Top 10 player from the 2023 Draft? He probably should have been higher, right?

Depending on the mocks or big boards McCuller/Knecht are lottery guys at age 23. Not saying they can't play but you look at last years class and there was real talent that had people questioning if Jacquez or Sasser were even first rounders. Jacquez went 18th and most people in the moment were surprised he went that early. He turned out to be a great pick, but feels like Knecht and McCuller are so high out of necessity this year due to anyone feeling good enough to push them down.

I don't have Knecht or McCullar as a lottery pick, but let's be honest here--in a re-draft, JJJ is a Top 5-7 pick in the 2023 Draft.

I think you are missing a big thing about drafting JMAC3, and that is that there are 30 teams in the NBA and all of them have different draft boards. It's possible a team like Utah had Hendricks at #4 on their board and Keyonte at #5, and ended up getting Keyonte at #16 because that is where their pick is.

If we assume not all 30 teams have identical boards, we can conclude that every player picks after the first couple [Wemby/Miler/Scoot/Amen] likely picked a player higher on their own teams board than what the player was actually picked at.

[JMAC3]

As has been the case all year, the depth of this draft will be fine, just as it is every year. It’s the top 3-4 picks this year that are looking weak compared to normal years.

The top pick this year wouldn’t go in the top 4 last year as Clyde said, and in my opinion wouldn’t go in the top 3 of most drafts. They’d be absolutely fine prospects from pick 4 downwards most years, so the depth will be there.

The top seems weak. Even the 5-10 range seems pretty bad. Grady Dick is probably like 5-6th on most draft boards if he were in college and in this class, he went 12th last year. Is Jakobe Walter really significantly better than Keyonte? Who went 16th and Walter is a top 5 discussion this class.

Why can't Ja'Kobe fall into the teens in this draft the same way Keyonte went at #16?

What if Keyonte becomes a Top 10 player from the 2023 Draft? He probably should have been higher, right?

Depending on the mocks or big boards McCuller/Knecht are lottery guys at age 23. Not saying they can't play but you look at last years class and there was real talent that had people questioning if Jacquez or Sasser were even first rounders. Jacquez went 18th and most people in the moment were surprised he went that early. He turned out to be a great pick, but feels like Knecht and McCuller are so high out of necessity this year due to anyone feeling good enough to push them down.

I don't have Knecht or McCullar as a lottery pick, but let's be honest here--in a re-draft, JJJ is a Top 5-7 pick in the 2023 Draft.

I think you are missing a big thing about drafting JMAC3, and that is that there are 30 teams in the NBA and all of them have different draft boards. It's possible a team like Utah had Hendricks at #4 on their board and Keyonte at #5, and ended up getting Keyonte at #16 because that is where their pick is.

If we assume not all 30 teams have identical boards, we can conclude that every player picks after the first couple [Wemby/Miler/Scoot/Amen] likely picked a player higher on their own teams board than what the player was actually picked at.

It is less about JaKobe falling and more the general consensus. Keyonte was all over most peoples draft boards ranging from 5-25 whereas Walter has been pretty much a lock for the top of the board. Walter could go 10, Keyonte maybe should of went 10 I get all that. I am just saying when evaluating the strength of the general boards side by side I think it is clearly overmatched.

The same with Jacquez, I get it he is awesome. Not really the point. My point is nobody was jamming Jacquez into their top 10 last year. Would not shock me if that is where things land with one of McCuller or Knecht with how things are shaping up.

I mean KOC has McCullar 9th on his big board take it or leave it I know some hate him.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Jazz said their board was Hendricks #9 and George #10.

(Neither has had a good season at all this year, but barely anyone from the 2023 class has impressed other than Wemby)

[Colbinii]

I would highly recommend anyone and everyone to avoid other mock drafts and focus on your own evaluations.

[elias808]

I would highly recommend anyone and everyone to avoid other mock drafts and focus on your own evaluations.

THIS. Most mock drafts you find online are making bold “see I told you so” claims so if they happen to be right they look great. Wasn’t there a mock draft “guru” that was caught retroactively updating his mocks after players were drafted, or lower picked prospects started to play really well?