2024 NBA Draft Thread

[BigGargamel]

I would highly recommend anyone and everyone to avoid other mock drafts and focus on your own evaluations.

THIS. Most mock drafts you find online are making bold “see I told you so” claims so if they happen to be right they look great. Wasn’t there a mock draft “guru” that was caught retroactively updating his mocks after players were drafted, or lower picked prospects started to play really well?

LOL yep, the guy who used to work for ESPN. I wanna say Chad Ford? What a goof.

Mock drafts aren't pointless, but they are another person's opinion and should be taken with a grain of salt. There are some I always tend to agree with more (tankathon) and some that are just absolutely shock value weird (NBADraft.net).

[God Squad]

I would highly recommend anyone and everyone to avoid other mock drafts and focus on your own evaluations.

THIS. Most mock drafts you find online are making bold “see I told you so” claims so if they happen to be right they look great. Wasn’t there a mock draft “guru” that was caught retroactively updating his mocks after players were drafted, or lower picked prospects started to play really well?

IIRC it was Chad Ford.

[FarBeyondDriven]

1) who's even the best center in this class?

Sarr

You could be right but I don't think that's a great endorsement of the draft. I hope we'll eventually look at Ivisic as the best C prospect because that would make the draft a lot more exciting.

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

2) who's the best projectable shooter?

Knecht, Risacher, Karaban, Walter, Furphy, Smith

I don't think all of them project to be great shooters but I tend to agree that the shooting isn't bad in this class (certainly Sheppard deserves a mention over some of these guys, too).

Sheppard likely won't start or get major minutes like the rest might which is why I didn't include him. Not sure how they don't project as great shooters. That's their MO and likely role in the NBA. It's a shooters league and they're all the best in the college game. At least those that also have the necessary size and athleticism to get on the floor.

3) who's the best two-way guy?

Walter, Ndongo, Williams, Castle, Johnson, Mgbako, Carrington, Watkins

Here I have some major disagreements. A bunch of the players you listed look more like one-way guys. Mgbako is a pretty bad defender. Walter is at best average. Castle currently is pretty much only good on defense although I understand projecting his offense to come around. Watkins as of now would only have a chance at NBA minutes due to defense, he's hard to project as a 2-way player in the NBA right now and he's currently maybe a 2nd round pick I guess, so I don't think he belongs in a ‘best player of a certain archetype’ by default. Too premature to put Carrington in this category for me as well. Ndongo's offense is too bad right now to be counted as a good two-way player, too. And which Johnson, Kobe?

almost none of this is true. Mgbako has a very high ceiling as a defender. Not sure where this false narrative about Walter not being a good defender is coming from either. He's a very good defender. It's the reason why he's so highly rated. Castle can run an offense and do everything on that end except shooting threes, so far. Watkins has thoroughly proven he's an offensive threat. Carrington might have some of the highest two-way potential though he is a bit of a knucklehead. Ndongo's offense isn't bad in the slightest. I'm gonna have to assume you simply haven't watched much of these guys going by these takes. I hope that's the reason. Yes, Kobe Johnson

I'm surprised you didn't mention Holland and McCullar. I think these players fit the category a lot better even as they are clearly no sure things either (McCullar needs his shooting to translate, and Holland needs to play better fundamental defense in addition to making his offense work – but both seems at least realistic).

I should have mentioned McCullar and Holland as well for sure

4) are there any point forwards and legitimate lead guards?

Collier, Carrington, Castle, Topic, Mitchell, Nunez, Proctor

I mean, these are Guards. Which one of these is a point forward or a lead guard at the NBA level? Topic maybe. Collier if you're really high on him but I doubt he gets the keys to an NBA team anytime soon. The rest cannot be realistically expected to be lead guards in the NBA. That would be all based on hope.

All of them are potential starting lead guards at the next level which is why I mentioned them. I wouldn't be surprised if each and every one of them is a starter 2-3 years from now. Not saying they will but they at least have the potential. Kinda like George, Wallace and Black from last draft in that regard

5) who's the best athlete?

Holland

Yeah, he's a great athlete. But I think it also demonstrates that this class lacks some high-end athleticism. I mean, who besides Holland is a truly noteworthy athlete and projected to go in the first round? Ryan Dunn and that's it? Maybe Sarr?

Holland, Bona, Salaun, Sarr, Klintman, Ajinca, Dillingham, Collier, Walter, Mitchell, Buzelis and Johnson are some others that are great athletes

[The-Power]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is fine but I don't think he's at Mobley's level as a prospect, no. Sarr struggles with physicality on both ends and that's not only due to age. He's also not as effective contesting shots at the rim as someone without any particular offensive skill to hang his hat on ideally would be. Top 10 pick? Sure. But I don't see top-level prospect yet.

Sheppard likely won't start or get major minutes like the rest might which is why I didn't include him.

That remains to be seen.

almost none of this is true.

It's a difference of opinion, not a fact. Your condescending tone here is why you cannot have a normal conversation on this board.

Mgbako has a very high ceiling as a defender.

How so? He has decent size but is limited athletically and the motor isn't there either. 1.5 stocks per 100 possessions and not an elite rebounder either. Which elite defensive wing had such numbers in college? He's essentially Moody without the hustle in a lot of ways. And even if you, for whatever reason (you haven't mentioned any), believe in his ceiling – that doesn't make him a two-way player right now.

Not sure where this false narrative about Walter not being a good defender is coming from either. He's a very good defender. It's the reason why he's so highly rated.

Once again, not a single substantial argument. What makes him a good defender? He has the potential to be fine but he doesn't have particularly great size or length for a wing, he's not a noteworthy athlete, and his production is fine but not great. He's highly rated primarily because he's a young wing that can shoot.

Castle can run an offense and do everything on that end except shooting threes, so far.

Castle cannot run anything without a shot. Teams ignore him right now and he has to play like post-yips Ben Simmons around the perimeter.

Watkins has thoroughly proven he's an offensive threat.

Once again no substantial point. Proven how? He's not a shooting threat, he has produced more turnovers than assists over his career, sub 50% on 2s every single year. He's not an efficient scorer, not a good playmaker, and he can be dared to shoot 3s. Players like this struggle in the NBA on offense.

Ndongo's offense isn't bad in the slightest.

Again nothing substantial. He doesn't shoot, he doesn't create for others, and he turns the ball over a bunch. He has the offensive profile of a Center without the size. Even if you think he can be an effective offensive player in his role, that doesn't mean we should project him to be a two-way player in the way the term is usually understood.

I'm gonna have to assume you simply haven't watched much of these guys going by these takes.

Here we go again. For someone with no track record on getting anything right on draft prospects whatsoever you sure like to believe that you know better than anyone else. If you just like to hear yourself talk without engaging in any meaningful discussion (heck, you fail to even provide a single substantial argument or use some form of evidence to back up your point), just write a blog. That kind of behavior across multiple threads continues to be just pathetic.

If I had to bet, I'd say we won't hear anything from you again by the time some of your takes haven't aged well and you'll be called out when you try to pretend you're infallible and above everyone else. Perhaps you'll be back under a new account name and continue as you do now because your entire persona relies on not having a history of takes on draft prospects.

Indeed, I would not at all be surprised to find out that you already went back to delete some of your previous takes on RealGM for that very reason.

[clyde21]

for the Cody Williams #1 overall squad...I need convincing...what makes him better than KJ Evans? let's completely remove the bloodline part out of it for a little while.

[clyde21]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

[FarBeyondDriven]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is fine but I don't think he's at Mobley's level as a prospect, no. Sarr struggles with physicality on both ends and that's not only due to age. He's also not as effective contesting shots at the rim as someone without any particular offensive skill to hang his hat on ideally would be. Top 10 pick? Sure. But I don't see top-level prospect yet.

cool. Like my opinion you deride, this lacks "substantial argument"

Sheppard likely won't start or get major minutes like the rest might which is why I didn't include him.

That remains to be seen.

yep

almost none of this is true.

It's a difference of opinion, not a fact. Your condescending tone here is why you cannot have a normal conversation on this board.

as is my opinion, that none of what you said was true? How is this condescending. If you took it that way it wasn't my intent. I just disagreed with almost everything you said which is my prerogative. You whining when people disagree with you on here is why you cannot have a normal conversation on this board.

Mgbako has a very high ceiling as a defender.

How so? He has decent size but is limited athletically and the motor isn't there either. 1.5 stocks per 100 possessions and not an elite rebounder either. Which elite defensive wing had such numbers in college? He's essentially Moody without the hustle in a lot of ways. And even if you, for whatever reason (you haven't mentioned any), believe in his ceiling – that doesn't make him a two-way player right now.

again, we're talking opinions here. He's 6'8" and has an NBA body I believe translates into him being able to defend multiple positions. Having Ware hurts his blocks and rebounding opportunities perhaps. Moody is 6'4" and nothing like Mgbako. I'm not talking about what these players are "right now" it's what I believe they'll become once they're fully developed and in my opinion, Mgbako has flashed two-way ability aided in large part due to his size and athleticism for his size

Not sure where this false narrative about Walter not being a good defender is coming from either. He's a very good defender. It's the reason why he's so highly rated.

Once again, not a single substantial argument. What makes him a good defender? He has the potential to be fine but he doesn't have particularly great size or length for a wing, he's not a noteworthy athlete, and his production is fine but not great. He's highly rated primarily because he's a young wing that can shoot.

I find his defense to be self-evident. Like, you know it when you see it. He has a very good combination of size, athleticism, length and athleticism combined with his hustle and just defensive awareness that makes him a good defender. I'm not seeing your "substantial argument" tbh just an opinion

Castle can run an offense and do everything on that end except shooting threes, so far.

Castle cannot run anything without a shot. Teams ignore him right now and he has to play like post-yips Ben Simmons around the perimeter.

in your opinion. Not seeing any "substantial argument". I think he is an effective PnR on-ball point guard that has the ability to get to his spots and set up teammates. He's also a good cutter and secondary playmaker off-ball. This makes him a good offensive player to me. And since I think he's a powerfully built point guard capable of defending multiple positions it makes him a good two-way player. But of course, I'm also projecting he'll figure out the three ball

Watkins has thoroughly proven he's an offensive threat.

Once again no substantial point. Proven how? He's not a shooting threat, he has produced more turnovers than assists over his career, sub 50% on 2s every single year. He's not an efficient scorer, not a good playmaker, and he can be dared to shoot 3s. Players like this struggle in the NBA on offense.

again, it's my opinion. I've seen several games and the offense often runs through him. He's able to play on and off-ball and find his spots or open teammates. Legit looks like Jimmy Butler with his game and skill level. Numbers don't always tell the story. This is why I caution people on evaluating players based off box scores. Watch this and tell me he doesn't have offensive skills

Watch on YouTube

Ndongo's offense isn't bad in the slightest.

Again nothing substantial. He doesn't shoot, he doesn't create for others, and he turns the ball over a bunch. He has the offensive profile of a Center without the size. Even if you think he can be an effective offensive player in his role, that doesn't mean we should project him to be a two-way player in the way the term is usually understood.

I'm not sure what your obsession with this "substantial" It's a message board. We provide our opinions. Nothing you just offered is any more "substantial" than me. I've watched him play several games. His game is growing by leaps and bounds. They ISO him all the time and he's able to finish around the rim and with his back to the basket due to having great length, good size and very soft hands. I've seen him take guys off the dribble, spin and finish. I've seen him take baseline turnaround jumpers. These aren't common imo for someone his size. He really does remind me of JJJ who I also consider to be one of the better two-way bigs in the game

I'm gonna have to assume you simply haven't watched much of these guys going by these takes.

Here we go again. For someone with no track record on getting anything right on draft prospects whatsoever you sure like to believe that you know better than anyone else. If you just like to hear yourself talk without engaging in any meaningful discussion (heck, you fail to even provide a single substantial argument or use some form of evidence to back up your point), just write a blog. That kind of behavior across multiple threads continues to be just pathetic.

If I had to bet, I'd say we won't hear anything from you again by the time some of your takes haven't aged well and you'll be called out when you try to pretend you're infallible and above everyone else. Perhaps you'll be back under a new account name and continue as you do now because your entire persona relies on not having a history of takes on draft prospects.

Indeed, I would not at all be surprised to find out that you already went back to delete some of your previous takes on RealGM for that very reason.

get a grip. You and your boys bully and admonish posters for their opinions constantly. You're combative, smarmy and condescending. Just look at the usual suspects that upvoted this. Am I supposed to bow down to you? I know you're all hoping your boy Duke will do your dirty work and ban me. But barring that, I won't be going anywhere. My takes are here for all to see. Since so many of my posts are attacked by you all, and quoted, those posts can't be altered or deleted (because their seen in the quotes) not that I'd even consider doing that. Going by some of the takes on here I obviously DO feel I know better. I own that. But again, if you feel better attacking me and accusing me of all the things you and your ilk are themselves guilty of, more power to you.

[FarBeyondDriven]

for the Cody Williams #1 overall squad...I need convincing...what makes him better than KJ Evans? let's completely remove the bloodline part out of it for a little while.

I'm not on his squad but I think he just moves more fluidly and has more ability to creat off the dribble than Evans. I don't have him sniffing #1 though. I'm curious as why people have him that high. I don't think they would if his brother wasn't in the NBA and killing it.

[FarBeyondDriven]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

who is offended or shocked? I don't think it's apples to apples since the game overseas is completely different. All I do when making that comparison is see that both are around 7'1" with similar length and athleticism. Both show a nice shooting touch as prospects. Both move extremely well as help defenders and meeting drivers at the rim with the ability to block shots. Both have the ability to switch and defend the perimeter. Both are alley oop and pick and pop threats off the PnR. Both lack bulk to go up against more traditional centers. I dunno man, they're just ridiculously similar in almost every way. So if you liked Mobley, and I'm sure you all did, not liking Sarr seems kinda suspect and agenda driven.

Evan Mobley is a career 23% shooter from three and only 68% from FT. Mobley barely has a 1:1 assist to TO ratio and also has more PF than blocks.

[BigGargamel]

I've already explained why I like Williams. Maybe it's cause I'm a Colorado fan and have watched a few of his games. Like his ability as a three level scorer, and honestly, he seems like the safest guy who still provides some pretty solid upside. Not a huge ringing endorsement, but someone I'd feel comfortable picking number one, at least right now. Still think Sarr or Risacher could pass him, and very well might once the pre-draft stuff kicks off. And for the record, I don't think he plays a lot like Jalen. Jalen's a stud, that's unfair to Cody.

[JMAC3]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

Sarr also didn't stand out much in OTE playing against younger prospects either Averaging 11 ppg, 6 boards, 1.1 blocks. He had some games he flashed but it was really 50/50 if he showed up.

He is running out of time to really solidify himself too as he has already played 19 games and the teams regular season has only 5 games remaining.

[FarBeyondDriven]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

Sarr also didn't stand out much in OTE playing against younger prospects either Averaging 11 ppg, 6 boards, 1.1 blocks. He had some games he flashed but it was really 50/50 if he showed up.

He is running out of time to really solidify himself too as he has already played 19 games and the teams regular season has only 5 games remaining.

Sarr himself is still just 18 y/o and bigs take longer to develop. Sarr's draft stock will be made or not when he measures, plays at the combine and in team workouts. Most scouts probably saw all they needed to to know how high his potential is in this game

Watch on YouTube

this was as impressive a performance as Evan Mobley had all year as a freshmen

[FarBeyondDriven]

I've already explained why I like Williams. Maybe it's cause I'm a Colorado fan and have watched a few of his games. Like his ability as a three level scorer, and honestly, he seems like the safest guy who still provides some pretty solid upside. Not a huge ringing endorsement, but someone I'd feel comfortable picking number one, at least right now. Still think Sarr or Risacher could pass him, and very well might once the pre-draft stuff kicks off. And for the record, I don't think he plays a lot like Jalen. Jalen's a stud, that's unfair to Cody.

I can't really fault anyone from having one of a dozen different guys number one. Most would say that's because it's a bad draft but I say it's because it's a very young class and each of the top guys is very unique and will fill a specific role. There's two high upside centers (Sarr, Ivisic), a few high upside point guards (Castle, Carrington, Collier), several high upside wings (Holland, Buzelis, Williams, Walter, Risacher, Furphy, Salaun) and none of them are too alike even within each positional group. There'll be something for every team no matter who picks and what their needs are so the draft order for these kids could be all over the place. I just wish they were all playing in the same league against the same opponents and with each having a chance to lead their respective teams. It makes it much harder for the casual fan to get excited for this class than any in a decade because the majority of the top prospects are foreign born.

[clyde21]

why? He's a damn good center prospect. If you were high on Mobley you should be just as high on Sarr

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

who is offended or shocked? I don't think it's apples to apples since the game overseas is completely different. All I do when making that comparison is see that both are around 7'1" with similar length and athleticism. Both show a nice shooting touch as prospects. Both move extremely well as help defenders and meeting drivers at the rim with the ability to block shots. Both have the ability to switch and defend the perimeter. Both are alley oop and pick and pop threats off the PnR. Both lack bulk to go up against more traditional centers. I dunno man, they're just ridiculously similar in almost every way. So if you liked Mobley, and I'm sure you all did, not liking Sarr seems kinda suspect and agenda driven.

Evan Mobley is a career 23% shooter from three and only 68% from FT. Mobley barely has a 1:1 assist to TO ratio and also has more PF than blocks.

Mobley totaled 79 assists to 74 TOs at USC and 95 blocks to 58 fouls. The numbers are completely flipped for Sarr right now that you can't even really compare and I dont know where you are getting your numbers for Mobley from

again we all like Sarr's raw ability and movement skills at his size but it's clear he's not there yet on the court, and to compare him to Mobley who had a monster freshmen in college is nonsense. i don't think Sarr would be anywhere near as good as what Mobley was on USC right now, but we'll never know.

[BlazersBroncos]

I dont have Sarr as close to Mobley as a prospect. I think Sarr is a 8-12 type talent, not sure what I am missing (Outside this being a bad draft and someone needing to go high). I think this hype of going Top-3 will end up like the Nerlens draft where Noel was getting #1 hype but ended going #7.

I see maybe Nic Claxton with a chance of a 3PT shot (Not convinced he will be a 3PT threat - many including myself thought Mobley was going to be a 3PT guy but look where we are).

[Colbinii]

I think Sarr is a Jalen Duren type prospect. Young with tons of "What-If" potential, crazy athletic and so much unknown that it's easy to get giddy over the mystique of the unknown.

[Hal14]

I've already explained why I like Williams. Maybe it's cause I'm a Colorado fan and have watched a few of his games. Like his ability as a three level scorer, and honestly, he seems like the safest guy who still provides some pretty solid upside. Not a huge ringing endorsement, but someone I'd feel comfortable picking number one, at least right now. Still think Sarr or Risacher could pass him, and very well might once the pre-draft stuff kicks off. And for the record, I don't think he plays a lot like Jalen. Jalen's a stud, that's unfair to Cody.

I like Cody. He's number 2 on my board right now.

But 3 level scorer? Like you said, you're a Colorado fan who's watched a few of his games so you've probably seen him more than I have but I honestly don't know if I've ever seen him score in the mid-range.

And his volume from 3 is extremely low (only 2.1 per game, just 3.9 per 100 possessions)..the 3 pt volume was also low last summer at FIBA where he shot 25% from 3..and at Colorado he's under 70% FT ..he also has kind of a slow release on his 3 pt shot so there's a few indicators there which make me skeptical about being a 3 pt shooter at the next level.

[Hal14]

I dont have Sarr as close to Mobley as a prospect. I think Sarr is a 8-12 type talent, not sure what I am missing (Outside this being a bad draft and someone needing to go high).

Could you elaborate on this? What specifically makes you think that Sarr isn't close to Mobley as a prospect?

Before you answer, have a look at this:

Read on Twitter

I think this hype of going Top-3 will end up like the Nerlens draft where Noel was getting #1 hype but ended going #7.

I don't think bringing up a prospect from a draft 11 years ago is very helpful to the discussion but that's just me

I see maybe Nic Claxton with a chance of a 3PT shot

Nic Claxton with the chance of a 3 pt shot...isn't that just Evan Mobley?

But that's a strange comparison since Sarr is 3" taller than Claxton.

Not convinced he will be a 3PT threat - many including myself thought Mobley was going to be a 3PT guy but look where we are).

This is pretty flawed logic. Just because Mobley hasn't developed his 3 ball a ton, automatically means Sarr won't?

They are not the same person lol. For all we know, Mobley hasn't worked on it as much..or maybe he hasn't gotten the proper coaching on it from the Cavs. Sarr is probably gonna get drafted by a different team - one that will have different training/coaching/development staff.

Also, if you look at the chart posted above, you'll see that Sarr's 3 pt volume this season is like 5x what Mobley's was at USC. And Sarr is about a year younger than Mobley was when he was at USC. So doesn't logic tell us that Sarr has a better shot at developing into a decent enough shooter in the NBA? Not to mention, Sarr is hitting 3's for Perth this season, he was hitting 3's last summer at FIBA U19 and he was hitting 3's for *two* seasons at OTE. Mobley (to my knowledge) was not really a shooter at all, prior to USC.

Lastly, even though Mobley's 3 ball has developed a ton in the NBA, he would still go no. 1 in the 2024 draft, no? And as the chart I posted above indicates, Sarr is arguably just as good (if not better) as a prospect than Mobley.

[baldur]

I would highly recommend anyone and everyone to avoid other mock drafts and focus on your own evaluations.

THIS. Most mock drafts you find online are making bold “see I told you so” claims so if they happen to be right they look great. Wasn’t there a mock draft “guru” that was caught retroactively updating his mocks after players were drafted, or lower picked prospects started to play really well?

I would still say Tankathon is the most reliable/accurate source in my opinion.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Mobley was largely viewed as a hyper intelligent guy which is super important for defense. Jalen Duren's physical tools are as good as Mobley's, but Duren is one of the worst defenders in the NBA because he has no clue (which could change as he gets older).

Sarr's BBIQ hasn't been that highly praised in comparison.

Sarr has also put tons of work into his jumpshot which makes him a much worse shooting prospect than Mobley was because Sarr has gone out of his way to show that he can't shoot and will probably never learn how to shoot (like how the Thompsons last year were basically guaranteed non-shooters because they had tried so hard to learn and had failed completely).

Sarr is Ayton with like 80% of his talent which is like... Okay I guess.

Sarr's positional value sucks so I have him like 8th or 9th. You can get a good center really easily and he's pretty risky as his motor isn't great.