Zach Edey, 7-4

[FrodoBaggins]

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Zach Edey has reportedly had a “good workout” for the Memphis Grizzlies, according to Adam Finkelstein

The Grizzlies hold the 9th pick in the 2024 NBA draft

This brings the list of teams Edey has worked out for to 8.

The list includes:

Raptors
Pelicans
Lakers
Trail Blazers
Heat
Jazz
Kings
Grizzlies

At the combine Edey said he only had 5-6 pre-draft workouts scheduled.

[BlazersBroncos]

Calling it now - Edey goes 9 to MEM.

[Big J]

The Cavs haven’t found a way to effectively utilize Evan Mobley; he was targeted by the Magic, and the Cavs have spacing problems. Mobley prefers to play center, and now they’re shopping Jarrett Allen.

Concerns about Edey’s defense are overblown. Teams can counteract this with pre-switching, peel switching, zone defense, traps, and rotations. Additionally, surrounding Edey with lengthy defenders who can challenge the ball handler's shot from behind or the side is effective, similar to how the Sixers use Thybulle, Ben, or Batum when Embiid plays drop coverage.

Many still perceive Edey as immobile, but his mobility and game-reading abilities have significantly improved. This is crucial for defensive success, similar to how Jokic excels by playing drop coverage despite being a below-average defender in terms of athleticism. But Edey has 7” longer wingspan!

It’s also important to note that unlike Clingan, who plays around 20 minutes per game, or Sarr, who comes off the bench, Edey has to anchor his team on both ends of the floor. This requires him to manage his foul numbers and conserve energy on defense. He has demonstrated elite endurance and durability for an athlete of his size.

Improving from really bad to below average isn't going to cut it in the NBA.

He's not going against a bunch of 6'9 Cs in the NBA. UConn guards absolutely torched him in the championship game. It's going to be that X10000 in the NBA where everybody is lightning quick and can shoot and pass.

If Edey averages more than 10-12MPG for his NBA career I'll be absolutely blown away. He can be the most dominant offensive player ever but there's no chance he can keep up with NBA players defensively. Boban is unstoppable on offense too but unplayable because of his defense. Edey is no different

The way everyone talks about Clingan’s defensive potential in the NBA compared to Edey’s defensive potential in the NBA confuses me. Especially after the combine drills.

Combine drills are all pre ordained movements. Prospects already know the course and don't have to react or improvise on the fly. Playing actual defense is almost entirely about reading and reacting to the offensive player. I'm not sure why we have to keep explaining this to people.

[FrodoBaggins]

The NBA combine forced them to modify their arguments and shift the goalposts. First, it was that he was just physically slow. Now it's that his cognitive processing is slow.

Good to see that they're clarifying their arguments.

[CptCrunch]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

[typedrat]

Calling it now - Edey goes 9 to MEM.

Which is ironic, considering that I think that might be one of his worst fits in the league. I think that putting him next to Ja Morant would just clog up the paint and end up kneecapping both of them.

[facothomas22]

With teams like the Bulls, Grizzles, Thunder, and Blazers all needing Center, I wouldn't be surprised if Edey gets drafted in the late lottery. And with the Lakers, Raptors and Pelicans appearing to have interest in him, his absolute floor is the 21st pick to the Pelicans. I'm concerned about his lack of mobility at the next level and is his 3pt shot a real thing or just a fluke.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

I'd like to know this too. Just so we have something to go off of. Let's break it down into Tiers. We'll include 4/5 guys because frankly most teams utilize two big lineups and small ball centers and all of these guys will play some form of center. I don't see any chance he's in Tier 1. I could see him in Tier 2 if everything breaks right for him but most likely I see him being in Tier 3 with the likes of Nurkic, Poeltl and Zubac. A low-end starting center and maybe even having to come off the bench. Remember, we'll be adding Sarr, Clingan, Ware, Missi, and Bona too. I dunno. What do others think?

Tier 1

Jokic
Embiid
Wembanyama
Sabonis
AD
Turner
Sengun
KAT
Bam
Porzingis

Tier 2

Lopez
Vucevic
Mobley
Allen
Gobert
Ayton
Holmgren
Capela
Hartenstein
Claxton

Tier 3 (the rest)

Nurkic
Poeltl
Lively
Okongwu
Kessler
Zubac
Robinson
TimeLord
Valanciunas
Williams
Duren
WCj
Adams

[The Moose]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

If he doesn’t end up returning a top 7-8 career VORP in this class, which historically is somewhere around >10 VORP, I’m happy to admit I was wrong

That’s what I see as an average case for Edey, which roughly translates to a long term above average starting center

[jasonxxx102]

With teams like the Bulls, Grizzles, Thunder, and Blazers all needing Center, I wouldn't be surprised if Edey gets drafted in the late lottery. And with the Lakers, Raptors and Pelicans appearing to have interest in him, his absolute floor is the 21st pick to the Pelicans. I'm concerned about his lack of mobility at the next level and is his 3pt shot a real thing or just a fluke.

What do you mean is his 3pt shot a real thing? He took 2, 3s in his career.

[jasonxxx102]

My line in the sand is that he’s never going to average more than 20mpg in his career.

I’d go less, but if he gets drafted in the mid 1st he’s going to get forced a bunch of really bad minutes on a terrible team

I will be blown away if he’s ever a replacement level player

[Honka Playboy]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

I think you're wildly overestimating the average NBA career of a first round draft pick, if you think a typical first rounder ends up being a better than average starter.

As an example, here are all of the players selected as late lottery picks (13 & 14) in the last 20 years:

Spoiler:

Sebastian Telfair
Kris Humphries
Sean May
Rashad McCants
Thabo Sefolosha
Ronnie Brewer
Julian Wright
Al Thornton
Brandon Rush
Anthony Randolph
Tyler Hansbrough
Earl Clark
Ed Davis
Patrick Patterson
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Kendall Marshall
John Henson
Kelly Olynyk
Shabazz Muhammad
Zach LaVine
T.J. Warren
Devin Booker
Cameron Payne
Georgios Papagiannis
Denzel Valentine
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo
Jerome Robinson
Michael Porter Jr.
Tyler Herro
Romeo Langford
Kira Lewis Jr.
Aaron Nesmith
Chris Duarte
Moses Moody
Jalen Duren
Ochai Agbaji
Gradey Dick
Jordan Hawkins

I counted four All-Stars out of those 40 players, and only a few others who would have qualified as better than average starters. Most of those guys would have loved to have been the 25th best player at their position in the league.

If I think that Edey is worth a late lottery pick, my bar for Edey to be considered a good pick is to be better than half of the players on that list, which doesn't seem unreasonable. The people who think he should be drafted in the second half of the first round would have even lower expectations.

Do you actually believe that there are 30 players in this draft class that will end up being better than average starters, and if any of them aren't, will you admit that you were wrong?

[FrodoBaggins]

It's funny seeing people say that Brook Lopez is much quicker than Edey. Here are some clips of how he was moving at an age slightly older than Zach:

Watch on YouTube

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Watch on YouTube

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Watch on YouTube

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Watch on YouTube

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[tester551]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

It seems like if Edey ends up being a below average starting C, your evaluation of him is more wrong than theirs.... You don't think he's even an NBA player.

My projection of Edey (and Clingan for that matter) is a below average starting C to a high end backup.
Somewhere between Hartenstein and Zubac

[JRoy]

Can we put some lines in the sand here for all the mega Edey fans to get on record in terms of what they envision Edey to be.

See, I don't see Edey being a NBA player in the average case. He shouldn't be drafted in the first round.

What is the bar for Edey being good? I don't want see gloating if Edey ends up as a 25th best center in the league. If Edey ends up being a below average starting center, will you guys admit that you were wrong?

I think you're wildly overestimating the average NBA career of a first round draft pick, if you think a typical first rounder ends up being a better than average starter.

As an example, here are all of the players selected as late lottery picks (13 & 14) in the last 20 years:

Spoiler:

Sebastian Telfair
Kris Humphries
Sean May
Rashad McCants
Thabo Sefolosha
Ronnie Brewer
Julian Wright
Al Thornton
Brandon Rush
Anthony Randolph
Tyler Hansbrough
Earl Clark
Ed Davis
Patrick Patterson
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Kendall Marshall
John Henson
Kelly Olynyk
Shabazz Muhammad
Zach LaVine
T.J. Warren
Devin Booker
Cameron Payne
Georgios Papagiannis
Denzel Valentine
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo
Jerome Robinson
Michael Porter Jr.
Tyler Herro
Romeo Langford
Kira Lewis Jr.
Aaron Nesmith
Chris Duarte
Moses Moody
Jalen Duren
Ochai Agbaji
Gradey Dick
Jordan Hawkins

I counted four All-Stars out of those 40 players, and only a few others who would have qualified as better than average starters. Most of those guys would have loved to have been the 25th best player at their position in the league.

If I think that Edey is worth a late lottery pick, my bar for Edey to be considered a good pick is to be better than half of the players on that list, which doesn't seem unreasonable. The people who think he should be drafted in the second half of the first round would have even lower expectations.

Do you actually believe that there are 30 players in this draft class that will end up being better than average starters, and if any of them aren't, will you admit that you were wrong?

Honka Playboy! Didn’t Petteri Kaponen play for those guys?

That is an impressive effort to put that list together.

How many of those guys were back to back college POTY and went to the title game as the best player on their team?

[Telfaire]

Calling it now - Edey goes 9 to MEM.

Agreed, thought about this fit ever since the lottery results. With their luxury tax issues, I can't envision them getting a better starting center than Mason Plumlee, who does have some advantages over Edey, but he's a short-term solution and reached the backup status phase in his career.

Great screener for Ja, alongside his other advantages. As for the defense, check out in this great analysis the part where the potential landing spots for Edey are discussed, the guy mentions the Spurs as a good one. He actually suggests to pair Edey with Wemby, blitz the high pick 'n roll (Edey & the perimeter guard), and to put Wemby on the weakest shooter on the floor, such that he could rotate to protect the paint. Well, the Grizzlies could naturally do the same with JJJ.

Watch on YouTube

[FrodoBaggins]

Memphis is a nice fit for Zach. Jaren Jackson Jr and Marcus Smart provide great help defense, switchability, and defensive playmaking. From the weakside and the top.

The best regular season defense in recent years was the 2019-20 Bucks with a -7.7 rDRtg. I don't see why Zach can't perform a defensive role similar to a mix of Lopez and Adams. The mobility and size are there; he's also shown to be more active contesting shots in smaller roles. Blocked 3.5 shots per 36 in the u19 FIBA WC.

Watch on YouTube

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[Bloodbather]

From what I've seen and read, Edey seems like a swing for the fences pick. There are so many outlier positive attributes, but the lack of defensive and offensive versatility is a legit concern. If I'm the Grizzlies I'm taking him at #9 - seems like an ideal Steven Adams replacement because of his size, rebounding, and screening. Anything beyond that, like if his post scoring translates or he adds an outside shot, would be bonus.

He should probably look to emulate Brook Lopez and add an outside shot while being a drop coverage rim deterrent. I can see it working. He'll definitely get matchup hunted like all 7-footers with limited mobility do, but I'm not seeing a Boban type player who can't move at all.

As far as lines in the sand goes, I say his floor is a Steven Adams-Ivica Zubac type, and his ceiling is Brook Lopez with more post scoring.

[GoBobs]

I see him averaging at lest 15/10/1 as a rookie, but even more scoring wouldn't surprise me. That will break down to 5 fgs and 5 fts per game. He will also be able to really limit the scoring of other post threat centers like Jokic in iso situations, but will have some problems defending the pick and roll as he will be strictly a drop coverage big.

[Pattycakes]

I see him averaging at lest 15/10/1 as a rookie, but even more scoring wouldn't surprise me. That will break down to 5 fgs and 5 fts per game. He will also be able to really limit the scoring of other post threat centers like Jokic in iso situations, but will have some problems defending the pick and roll as he will be strictly a drop coverage big.

That would make him the number one pick, no?