2025 NBA Draft Class

[FrodoBaggins]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

[johannking]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Can you show the formula you used to calculate these scores? Flagg only behind LBJ is crazy for a physical-trait score.

[EvanZ]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Where is Durant on this list? Kawhi?

[Chuck Everett]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Who is Smith? Jabari Smith?

[ROballer]

Josh Smith

[King Ken]

I say this a lot but this 1st round is 2018 good. I think it's a tad better depth wise but a tad worse top heavy wise. Either way, this draft is insane.

[Snotbubbles]

Watching some Cooper Flagg film, and I don't know why I didn't think of this comparision before. Anyone else see a ton of Jimmy Butler in his game?

Cooper is slightly longer, and more athletic, but he approaches the game awfully similar to Jimmy.

Yes, his main comparison is more athletic, better shooting Jimmy.

His reminds me of Lamar Odom.

[FrodoBaggins]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Can you show the formula you used to calculate these scores? Flagg only behind LBJ is crazy for a physical-trait score.

https://njk11.pythonanywhere.com/

No fancy formula, just the percentile rank of each of the four measurements, divided by four. They're all weighted equally. The guy who collated the data called it Physical Score:

Physical Score consists of the average of the percentile results for Height Without Shoes, Weight, Wingspan, and Standing Reach

Positions categorized as such:

If a player is listed at multiple positions (e.g. PG and SG), the percentiles are calculated separately for each individual position.

[FrodoBaggins]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Where is Durant on this list? Kawhi?

Durant: 86.9% (18.71 draft age)
Kawhi: 74.9% (19.96 draft age)

KD is in the 99.1% for standing reach, 99.4% for wingspan, and 95.5% for barefoot height. Freak. The only longer wingspans are Lee Scruggs and Rasheer Fleming, but neither are really SFs. Only Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Lee Scruggs above KD for standing reach. Here's how the data is categorized by position:

If a player is listed at multiple positions (e.g. PG and SG), the percentiles are calculated seperately for each individual position.

So, KD is pretty much the longest true SF. Marvin Williams just behind him. I bet young Lamar Odom who played SF has comparable measurements to KD. Young SF Garnett probably the longest. Noa Essengue recorded a 9'3.25" standing reach at the 2024 Basketball Without Borders camp. Kirilenko, Tayshaun Prince, and Jonathan Bender some other candidates.

[FrodoBaggins]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Who is Smith? Jabari Smith?

Josh Smith.

[Covi_Marsh]

Y’all gonna be shocked when yall find out how tall Cooper Flagg measured at lol

Flagg has already proved he has elite BBIQ and he can initiate the offense either for himself or others which are SF skills/traits Bailey lacks which I believe is why people have Bailey pegged as an off-ball 4 (sometimes 3 depending on matchups) initially whereas Flagg can easily play the 3 and 4. But there's reason to believe Bailey can get there and might have shown those things already had he gone to a different team which is why he's so highly ranked.

I was just responding to the comments knocking Ace being 6’7.5 as a PF when Flagg is the same side.

[The-Power]

Watching the playoffs with the intensity, physicality, speed and team defense concepts, there are a bunch of highly ranked players that I am really concerned about when it comes to being high-minutes playoff players at the next level.

For example, I don't see how Maluach will manage to stay on the floor at all. I'm also skeptical about Fears as I believe he'd have to become elite offensively which feels like a tall task with his markers. With Jakucionis and Knueppel it feels like it could go either way and they certainly have their work cut out for them. Not sold on Tre Johnson either even if he might be productive on the surface (akin to someone like Jalen Green or Cam Thomas who can score in bunches and look unstoppable but just aren't really positive impact players due to scoring inconsistencies in addition to lacking in pretty much all other areas). Queen could be a playoff player in theory but only if he starts getting into better shape and actually giving an effort. Demin also has a ton of question marks around him because it's hard to see him being able to handle playoff pressure with the ball in his hands and his shooting really has to take a step forward. Bailey should be able to play in the playoffs but whether he can become an integral part of his team rather than just someone who soaks up some minutes remains very much to be seen.

Players I feel good or better (relative to their ranking) about are obviously Flagg and, though to a lesser extent, Harper. I'm also fairly confident that Edgecombe can play solid minutes on good teams as long as his recent shooting strides were real and he's at least somewhat progressing rather than regressing, even though I don't see him as any kind of star. So in that sense I'm not unusually high on him at all but I see a clear path to positive impact player even as a team would hope for more than just that with a top 3-5 pick. I also still like Carter Bryant and Rasheer Fleming as valuable playoff contributors (though once again, hard to see them as any kind of stars) and would thus pick them relatively early. I'm also feeling more confident about CMB than I did to start the year, simply because I decided to trust his overall basketball skills and understanding despite obvious limitations (if he remains a complete non-shooter that obviously makes his fit much tougher). I'm also more bullish on Clayton and Coward as contributors, especially with the new CBA putting an emphasis on finding contributors on Rookie deals for teams that have a decent core and try to make the playoffs.

Not sure what this means for my big board because at some point you're going to have to opt for the perceived upside of some of the guys I mentioned in the first paragraph over the floor, or clearer path to impact, of those mentioned in the second. But I expect that the question ‘can I see coaches trust the player in such playoff battles’ to be more present on my mind than perhaps ever before. And this draft has a lot of players to be concerned about in that regard.

[Chi town]

Here's how Coop and similarly-sized NBA FWDs compare to all historically-measured SFs in a percentile-based composite score of barefoot height, standing reach, wingspan, and weight.

Flagg: 75.8% (18.5 draft age)
LBJ: 81.6% (18.5 draft age)
Smith: 72.3% (18.53 draft age)
Tatum: 57.7% (19.29 draft age)
PG: 70.0% (20.12 draft age)
Jalen Johnson: 69.1% (19.5 draft age)
Aaron Gordon: 68.9% (18.75 draft age)

Consider the draft age and the weight measurements. Tatum's measurements weren't done at the NBA Draft Combine, so his number may be understated a little.

Where is Durant on this list? Kawhi?

Buzelis?

[King Ken]

Watching the playoffs with the intensity, physicality, speed and team defense concepts, there are a bunch of highly ranked players that I am really concerned about when it comes to being high-minutes playoff players at the next level.

For example, I don't see how Maluach will manage to stay on the floor at all. I'm also skeptical about Fears as I believe he'd have to become elite offensively which feels like a tall task with his markers. With Jakucionis and Knueppel it feels like it could go either way and they certainly have their work cut out for them. Not sold on Tre Johnson either even if he might be productive on the surface (akin to someone like Jalen Green or Cam Thomas who can score in bunches and look unstoppable but just aren't really positive impact players due to scoring inconsistencies in addition to lacking in pretty much all other areas). Queen could be a playoff player in theory but only if he starts getting into better shape and actually giving an effort. Demin also has a ton of question marks around him because it's hard to see him being able to handle playoff pressure with the ball in his hands and his shooting really has to take a step forward. Bailey should be able to play in the playoffs but whether he can become an integral part of his team rather than just someone who soaks up some minutes remains very much to be seen.

Players I feel good or better (relative to their ranking) about are obviously Flagg and, though to a lesser extent, Harper. I'm also fairly confident that Edgecombe can play solid minutes on good teams as long as his recent shooting strides were real and he's at least somewhat progressing rather than regressing, even though I don't see him as any kind of star. So in that sense I'm not unusually high on him at all but I see a clear path to positive impact player even as a team would hope for more than just that with a top 3-5 pick. I also still like Carter Bryant and Rasheer Fleming as valuable playoff contributors (though once again, hard to see them as any kind of stars) and would thus pick them relatively early. I'm also feeling more confident about CMB than I did to start the year, simply because I decided to trust his overall basketball skills and understanding despite obvious limitations (if he remains a complete non-shooter that obviously makes his fit much tougher). I'm also more bullish on Clayton and Coward as contributors, especially with the new CBA putting an emphasis on finding contributors on Rookie deals for teams that have a decent core and try to make the playoffs.

Not sure what this means for my big board because at some point you're going to have to opt for the perceived upside of some of the guys I mentioned in the first paragraph over the floor, or clearer path to impact, of those mentioned in the second. But I expect that the question ‘can I see coaches trust the player in such playoff battles’ to be more present on my mind than perhaps ever before. And this draft has a lot of players to be concerned about in that regard.

Not saying I disagree with you but I'll counter your argument because you could be right
Maluach does have major question marks but the selling point is the fact that he's probably as close to Rudy Gobert since Rudy came out and while some will say Rudy gets played off the floor, Thinking Basketball put out a video why Rudy isn't an issue in the playoffs.

The belief for Fears is that he's a legit starting PG. I think he's possible due to the fact that he's a lot like Dennis S with traits not too far from John Wall. That said, Fears does have to hit high markers to be an all-star or superstar.

J and Kon are players you would prefer go to teams who have good coaches and know how to win. They are easy to fill players if the situation makes sense.

While I am probably more on your side with Tre Johnson, if he hits, he's Ray Allen and he's better than Ray was as a freshman. He's the best of the Ray Allen prototypes.

Queen is the most unique player in this draft. If he hits and develops in areas like PnR creation and 3pt range efficiency, could he be another Harden joining Luka, Trae, Caitlin, and James in the Harden family?

Demin is probably years away from starting but I would take the over that he is if we are talking 2029 and on.

I don't know if I can counter your Bailey statement.

I can't counter the Harper, V.J. or Flagg statement. Same for Carter and Fleming.

You didn't really say much about Clayton or Coward.

For me, this is the best draft I've ever evaluated, and I was blessed to even evaluate the 1996 NBA draft class. It wasn't much, I was a kid, but I had my scouting report for Kobe, A.I. and Ray Allen, and my favorite prospect that draft, Marcus Camby. I didn't know who Steve Nash was, but I knew and loved Kobe. I thought he was going to be the best player in the draft, even as a kid, and he went to prom with my favorite singer at the time in Brandy. To kid me, that was the coolest ish ever.

The best modern draft is 2018 but this one is better. The 1st round depth is crazy. I will say, this draft isn't as disappointing in the 2nd round as people expected, as many of these seniors are pro-ready even if they aren't ideal NBA prospects.

[King Ken]

Just for reference, I am still working on my BB right now which is why it hasn't been posted.
As of right now, I have:
1 - Tier 1
1 - Tier 2
1 - Tier 3
10 - Tier 3.5, which might be a record.
22 - Tier 4, which isn't the best I've seen but when you think about the fact that 13 players are already in the other tiers, that's pretty good.

But where this class is insane
5 - Tier 4 or better PGs
9 - Tier 4 or better SGs - This is the draft to land a SG if you need one.
5 - Tier 4 or better SFs
4 - Tier 4 or better PFs
10 - Tier 4 or better Cs and that's not including Hansen Yang and Rocco who I am still evaluating to see if I need to push them up to Tier 4. This is by far the strongest center class since last year and 2018 which had 5 a piece. This is by far the strongest center class in NBA draft history. 1970 was top-heavy. 2007 caught everyone off guard, the best centers were guys we didn't expect. 2001 from a talent level even though the NBA readiness was horrendous. Really hasn't been that many good center classes ever. The Embiid/Joker/Capela/Nurkic class looks amazing right now but it was seen as a 3 center class at the time, with Embiid having medical scares.

This draft class is special. You have some tremendous classes in the previous years of late. 2018, 2021, and 2022 but this is the best by far.

How risky is the positional value?
PG - Low, of the 5 PGs with tier 3.5 or 4 grades, none have much of a bust potential.
SG - Fairly risky, outside of the top two (Harper and Coward) it can get shaky. You do have some safe bets as well with less perceived upside.
SF - Outside of Flagg, it's risky as hell, high alert.
PF - All tier 4 but CMB and all have low bust potential
C - All of them have bust potential. Every last one of them.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Just for reference, I am still working on my BB right now which is why it hasn't been posted.
As of right now, I have:
1 - Tier 1
1 - Tier 2
1 - Tier 3
10 - Tier 3.5, which might be a record.
22 - Tier 4, which isn't the best I've seen but when you think about the fact that 13 players are already in the other tiers, that's pretty good.

But where this class is insane
5 - Tier 4 or better PGs
9 - Tier 4 or better SGs - This is the draft to land a SG if you need one.
5 - Tier 4 or better SFs
4 - Tier 4 or better PFs
10 - Tier 4 or better Cs and that's not including Hansen Yang and Rocco who I am still evaluating to see if I need to push them up to Tier 4. This is by far the strongest center class since last year and 2018 which had 5 a piece. This is by far the strongest center class in NBA draft history. 1970 was top-heavy. 2007 caught everyone off guard, the best centers were guys we didn't expect. 2001 from a talent level even though the NBA readiness was horrendous. Really hasn't been that many good center classes ever. The Embiid/Joker/Capela/Nurkic class looks amazing right now but it was seen as a 3 center class at the time, with Embiid having medical scares.

This draft class is special. You have some tremendous classes in the previous years of late. 2018, 2021, and 2022 but this is the best by far.

How risky is the positional value?
PG - Low, of the 5 PGs with tier 3.5 or 4 grades, none have much of a bust potential.
SG - Fairly risky, outside of the top two (Harper and Coward) it can get shaky. You do have some safe bets as well with less perceived upside.
SF - Outside of Flagg, it's risky as hell, high alert.
PF - All tier 4 but CMB and all have low bust potential
C - All of them have bust potential. Every last one of them.

Apologies if you've provided it already, but what do your tiers mean?

[King Ken]

Just for reference, I am still working on my BB right now which is why it hasn't been posted.
As of right now, I have:
1 - Tier 1
1 - Tier 2
1 - Tier 3
10 - Tier 3.5, which might be a record.
22 - Tier 4, which isn't the best I've seen but when you think about the fact that 13 players are already in the other tiers, that's pretty good.

But where this class is insane
5 - Tier 4 or better PGs
9 - Tier 4 or better SGs - This is the draft to land a SG if you need one.
5 - Tier 4 or better SFs
4 - Tier 4 or better PFs
10 - Tier 4 or better Cs and that's not including Hansen Yang and Rocco who I am still evaluating to see if I need to push them up to Tier 4. This is by far the strongest center class since last year and 2018 which had 5 a piece. This is by far the strongest center class in NBA draft history. 1970 was top-heavy. 2007 caught everyone off guard, the best centers were guys we didn't expect. 2001 from a talent level even though the NBA readiness was horrendous. Really hasn't been that many good center classes ever. The Embiid/Joker/Capela/Nurkic class looks amazing right now but it was seen as a 3 center class at the time, with Embiid having medical scares.

This draft class is special. You have some tremendous classes in the previous years of late. 2018, 2021, and 2022 but this is the best by far.

How risky is the positional value?
PG - Low, of the 5 PGs with tier 3.5 or 4 grades, none have much of a bust potential.
SG - Fairly risky, outside of the top two (Harper and Coward) it can get shaky. You do have some safe bets as well with less perceived upside.
SF - Outside of Flagg, it's risky as hell, high alert.
PF - All tier 4 but CMB and all have low bust potential
C - All of them have bust potential. Every last one of them.

Apologies if you've provided it already, but what do your tiers mean?

Tiers:

Tier 1: Elite Cornerstone Prospect: Greg Oden, Zion Williamson, LeBron James, Kevin Durant. Should be top 25 or better.

Tier 2: Tier 2: All-Star potential – Ja Morant, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Luka Doncic (yeah, I got that one wrong), Carmelo Anthony, R.J. Barrett, DeAndre Ayton, AD, Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Kyrie, O.J. Mayo (I know, don’t ask), KAT, etc. Potential for top 25-50 range.

Tier 3: All-Star Possibilities – Mikal Bridges, Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, James Harden, Hasheem Thabeet(bustaroo), Al Horford, Dwight Howard, and Emeka Okafor. Tier 3 is difficult for me because very few guys have been on this list over the last 20+ years for me. Top 100 guy with top 25-50 potential

Tier 3.5 - Decent Role player potential with All-Star possibilities down the road. I do see these guys as Day 1 contributors to a degree. This list is massive, it includes guys like Fultz, Tatum, Brown, Garland, Rui, Cam Reddish, Bargnani, LMA, Lillard, Okafor, KP, man, so many guys. Usually, like 5-8 a year. Of course, the miss rate is high. Top 200 guy with the potential of 25-50.

Tier 4 - Tier 4: Decent Role player potential or raw with AS possibilities. This is most players in the NBA. Some get a high-end tier 4 status which is like, a really good role player who usually dominated college or showcases their NBA role at a very high level with the potential to be more. Top 150-200 guy with top 100 potential or top 250-300 guy with the potential to be top 25-50

Tier 5 – Backups and G-Leaguers – A lot of players. Potential to be rotational but not starters.

Tier 6 – International Pros who don’t have much of a shot at the NBA.

[The-Power]

Appreciate the response, that's the kind of discussion I'm looking forward to having on this board!

Maluach does have major question marks but the selling point is the fact that he's probably as close to Rudy Gobert since Rudy came out and while some will say Rudy gets played off the floor, Thinking Basketball put out a video why Rudy isn't an issue in the playoffs.

Yeah, I understand the ideal is Gobert. But Gobert is just the absolute pinnacle of this archetype and it's tough for anyone to hit even close to it. I remember when people compared Mo Bamba to Gobert, and some even saw it as his floor. No team wants Bamba these days and I think he was a better prospect than Maluach coming into the league (similar strengths and weaknesses but Bamba offered next level rim deterrent).

Two things that Gobert brings to the table is elite shot blocking and rebounding. Maluach does not show the same dominance. Yes, Maluach is a rim presence despite pedestrian shot blocking but which super long Centers have been elite rim protectors in the NBA without showing elite shot blocking? And Maluach's lack of steals also indicate some quickness or reaction limitations. Let's just say I'd be much more surprised if he's close to being the next Rudy than I'd be about him being out of the league after his first contract.

The belief for Fears is that he's a legit starting PG. I think he's possible due to the fact that he's a lot like Dennis S with traits not too far from John Wall. That said, Fears does have to hit high markers to be an all-star or superstar.

To be clear: if Fears hits the high markers then I can definitely see him being a good starting PG that teams will play in the playoffs. What I'm talking about are median or expected outcomes.

Schröder is an interesting comparison. Faster than Fears but Fears should clear him as a shooter (or else everything else is moot anyways). The thing with Schröder is that he's currently on his 8th NBA team. Good enough to stick around but he's just not a much coveted player. And a key reason why Schröder plays good minutes in the playoffs is because he's a really pesky defender. Take that away and I'm not sure he sees much of the floor; and I don't see Fears as that level of defender.

Overall, I can get behind your statement. Fears can be a legit starting PG if he hits all the markers but it's not the most likely outcome. So I would not blink an eye if some team takes him in the late lottery, that's perfectly fine IMO. I'd just struggle to pick him much earlier because the risk-reward calculation doesn't seem all that great to me.

J and Kon are players you would prefer go to teams who have good coaches and know how to win. They are easy to fill players if the situation makes sense.

I do believe they can play a role. What I'm worried about with Knueppel is that shooters in these playoffs are consistently played off the floor if they are lacking in most other areas. Knueppel does have some interesting secondary qualities but we'll have to wait and see how he holds up on defense and against the length, athleticism and physicality that dominates the NBA playoffs on the perimeter these days. With Jaku I'm concerned about his defense, the fact that he was very turnover prone and that his shooting looked much worse as the season moved on. I was actually one of his biggest fans for a period of time on this board because I do like the way he plays on offense with poise, strength and versatility. If he is a really good shooter in the NBA then he becomes a very interesting player. But he was also so bad on defense, especially navigating screens, that he either completely transforms on that end (tough to imagine) or showing at least moderate improvement while being a top 2 offensive player on his team. The latter seems doable but it's still far from a given.

While I am probably more on your side with Tre Johnson, if he hits, he's Ray Allen and he's better than Ray was as a freshman. He's the best of the Ray Allen prototypes.

Tre is interesting because his talent is obvious. Being an ATG shooter would obviously propel him a lot. My main issue is that his archetype – shoot-first SG lacking elite physical traits with below average defense – is a tough one in today's NBA. Some of them turn into really good players but more often than not, they fizzle out or continue to produce in the boxscore without impacting winning much. I'd still pick Tre pretty high in this draft but I'd not blink an eye if someone told me he maxes out as a Jalen Green, or Cam Thomas, or Bradley Beal (though not necessarily in terms of playing style) and those players just aren't that valuable and turn into negative assets quite easily.

Demin is probably years away from starting but I would take the over that he is if we are talking 2029 and on.

Maybe. He has the size and passing chops to become something in the NBA. That being said, if we're looking at him being a key contributor only from 2029 onwards then his appeal to teams drafting him dramatically decreases. Right now, what's a good but realistic career-arc for him – Josh Giddey? That's a fine player but not someone who helps his first team in the playoffs.

For me, this is the best draft I've ever evaluated, and I was blessed to even evaluate the 1996 NBA draft class.

I wish I was as optimistic as you are. I really don't see this draft as being stronger than 2017 and 2018, for instance, and a bunch of other drafts over the past ten years also have a good case for being better IMO (e.g., 2021, 2022). But I certainly do find this draft more interesting than last year's at least, if only because of the very top of the draft. I won't sit here and claim to know for sure, though. Who knows, you might as well end up being right if things break right for many of the really talented but flawed players.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Appreciate the response, that's the kind of discussion I'm looking forward to having on this board!

Maluach does have major question marks but the selling point is the fact that he's probably as close to Rudy Gobert since Rudy came out and while some will say Rudy gets played off the floor, Thinking Basketball put out a video why Rudy isn't an issue in the playoffs.

Yeah, I understand the ideal is Gobert. But Gobert is just the absolute pinnacle of this archetype and it's tough for anyone to hit even close to it. I remember when people compared Mo Bamba to Gobert, and some even saw it as his floor. No team wants Bamba these days and I think he was a better prospect than Maluach coming into the league (similar strengths and weaknesses but Bamba offered next level rim deterrent).

Two things that Gobert brings to the table is elite shot blocking and rebounding. Maluach does not show the same dominance. Yes, Maluach is a rim presence despite pedestrian shot blocking but which super long Centers have been elite rim protectors in the NBA without showing elite shot blocking? And Maluach's lack of steals also indicate some quickness or reaction limitations. Let's just say I'd be much more surprised if he's close to being the next Rudy than I'd be about him being out of the league after his first contract.

The belief for Fears is that he's a legit starting PG. I think he's possible due to the fact that he's a lot like Dennis S with traits not too far from John Wall. That said, Fears does have to hit high markers to be an all-star or superstar.

To be clear: if Fears hits the high markers then I can definitely see him being a good starting PG that teams will play in the playoffs. What I'm talking about are median or expected outcomes.

Schröder is an interesting comparison. Faster than Fears but Fears should clear him as a shooter (or else everything else is moot anyways). The thing with Schröder is that he's currently on his 8th NBA team. Good enough to stick around but he's just not a much coveted player. And a key reason why Schröder plays good minutes in the playoffs is because he's a really pesky defender. Take that away and I'm not sure he sees much of the floor; and I don't see Fears as that level of defender.

Overall, I can get behind your statement. Fears can be a legit starting PG if he hits all the markers but it's not the most likely outcome. So I would not blink an eye if some team takes him in the late lottery, that's perfectly fine IMO. I'd just struggle to pick him much earlier because the risk-reward calculation doesn't seem all that great to me.

J and Kon are players you would prefer go to teams who have good coaches and know how to win. They are easy to fill players if the situation makes sense.

I do believe they can play a role. What I'm worried about with Knueppel is that shooters in these playoffs are consistently played off the floor if they are lacking in most other areas. Knueppel does have some interesting secondary qualities but we'll have to wait and see how he holds up on defense and against the length, athleticism and physicality that dominates the NBA playoffs on the perimeter these days. With Jaku I'm concerned about his defense, the fact that he was very turnover prone and that his shooting looked much worse as the season moved on. I was actually one of his biggest fans for a period of time on this board because I do like the way he plays on offense with poise, strength and versatility. If he is a really good shooter in the NBA then he becomes a very interesting player. But he was also so bad on defense, especially navigating screens, that he either completely transforms on that end (tough to imagine) or showing at least moderate improvement while being a top 2 offensive player on his team. The latter seems doable but it's still far from a given.

While I am probably more on your side with Tre Johnson, if he hits, he's Ray Allen and he's better than Ray was as a freshman. He's the best of the Ray Allen prototypes.

Tre is interesting because his talent is obvious. Being an ATG shooter would obviously propel him a lot. My main issue is that his archetype – shoot-first SG lacking elite physical traits with below average defense – is a tough one in today's NBA. Some of them turn into really good players but more often than not, they fizzle out or continue to produce in the boxscore without impacting winning much. I'd still pick Tre pretty high in this draft but I'd not blink an eye if someone told me he maxes out as a Jalen Green, or Cam Thomas, or Bradley Beal (though not necessarily in terms of playing style) and those players just aren't that valuable and turn into negative assets quite easily.

Demin is probably years away from starting but I would take the over that he is if we are talking 2029 and on.

Maybe. He has the size and passing chops to become something in the NBA. That being said, if we're looking at him being a key contributor only from 2029 onwards then his appeal to teams drafting him dramatically decreases. Right now, what's a good but realistic career-arc for him – Josh Giddey? That's a fine player but not someone who helps his first team in the playoffs.

For me, this is the best draft I've ever evaluated, and I was blessed to even evaluate the 1996 NBA draft class.

I wish I was as optimistic as you are. I really don't see this draft as being stronger than 2017 and 2018, for instance, and a bunch of other drafts over the past ten years also have a good case for being better IMO (e.g., 2021, 2022). But I certainly do find this draft more interesting than last year's at least, if only because of the very top of the draft. I won't sit here and claim to know for sure, though. Who knows, you might as well end up being right if things break right for many of the really talented but flawed players.

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[FarBeyondDriven]

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This draft class is losing as many players as last year but unlike last year, its depth is way weaker so its affecting its strength big time. I don't fault these kids taking the NIL money instead of being a late 1st and especially a 2nd rounder. I get the argument that they start their clock faster but can't that be taken off the table by refusing to be drafted (like Austin Reaves) so you're able to sign with any team you want and have the best of both worlds? He could make way more money this year, sign as an UDFA at fewer years and then sign his 2nd contract at the same time and for the same or more as if he was drafted in the 2nd round? It's an interesting strategy that of course relies on your agent wielding power and convincing teams to go along with it. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe it only happened with Reaves because it's the Lakers and the league is rigged. We shall see because there's no chance talent wise and age wise he shouldn't go drafted next year.