Hal14 wrote:shangrila wrote:Duke4life831 wrote:So has Daron Holmes played himself into maybe being a late 1st round guy? Has started to use the 3pt shot as a more consistent weapon to go with his high IQ defense. Or is the measurements and lack of explosive athleticism, to go with being just an average rebounder just will prevent him from ever being a 1st round guy, no matter the draft?
I've liked him to the Wolves early 2nd they got from WAS/MEM (so around 34-37 to this point) for a while so I'm not far off on a 1st round grade for him.
The more interesting this to me is how he compares to Ighodaro, who's been consistently mocked in the late 1st all year. Similar measureables and age, but outside of that Holmes has the edge in nearly every single statistical category. The one significant exception being slightly worse efficiency, but that can potentially be explained away by shot diet and usage (31.9% vs Oso's 20.5%).
On a side note, this is one of the reasons I haven't understood why Oso has been ranked so high. Yes his passing is interesting and his ability/willingness to play within himself offensively is nice but his negatives outweigh that, e.g. he's not a rim protector, doesn't rebound well, provides no spacing, etc. He's one of those quirky prospects that draft commentators love because he's interesting and different but his below average skillsets in the basic skills his position requires (rebounding, rim protection, even spacing in this current NBA) will make him a disappointment for whoever drafts him.
The main differences between Holmes and Ighodaro:
-Difference in competition is pretty significant. Oso is in the Big East. Holmes is in a mid major conference, and is having big games vs bad teams that have basically 0 guys who will play pro ball. So you gotta factor that in - you can't just look at the stats and say "oh they're comparable stats". If Oso had Dayton's schedule, he'd have much better stats and if Holmes had Oso's schedule, he's have worse stats.
-Holmes has no elite skill. Oso has 2. Oso has elite passing for a big, he's a legit offensive hub you can run an offense through. And he probably has better ball handling than any big in the class.
Also, Holmes is shooting well this season but he's got a half a season sample size as a good shooter, after 2 seasons as a non-shooter. And even this season, he's taking less than 3 threes a game so pretty low volume..at age 21..vs weak competition.
And even then, I don't have oso that high. I have him as like a mid 2nd rounder... *maybe* early 2nd rounder.
Maybe he's gotten mocked in the 1st round but mocks don't mean a whole lot - especially this far from the draft..and especially when they are mocking guys outside of the top 10-15 picks..
Not sure that I buy there's a significant difference in terms of competition. Certainly not enough for one guy to be mocked mid-1st and the other to be mid-2nd to undrafted (I know you don't like using mocks but that was the basis of my original point so I'll keep it consistent for now).
Holmes' elite skill is that he has no notable weaknesses. He rebounds well, he blocks shots, he moves his feet defensively, statistically he's nearly identical passing-wise to Oso, he's efficient, and I'd argue he's got the positive indicators for shooting to space the floor at the next level.
Your comments about Ighodaro also basically prove my point about him. His 2 elite skills (and I'll be honest, I don't buy him as someone you run the entire offence through) are "nice to have" skills for his position. The trade off for him having those skills is that he provides little if any rim protection and below average rebounding, particularly defensively which is always a huge red flag for me. Both of those skills are key for the position he's going to be playing.
The question I ask myself with prospects like this is; how hard is it to find what they're missing relative to their position in other players? And how valuable is the atypical skillset they bring?
To put it another way; how easy would it be to find plus rebounders and rim protectors at other positions to compensate for Oso's deficiencies? And conversely, how hard is it to find players that can run the offence at the 1-4 spots? My answers are difficult and easy, respectively, so I don't value his skills as highly as others do.
For the record, I realise we're both sort of arguing the same thing about Oso's value given where we both have him ranked so I'm not arguing against you with the above...just stating my stance on him for reference. But I do like Holmes and have him with a near 1st grade. I just don't see a lineup where he can't be effective in and that kind of plug and play versatility is intriguing to me.
