TIER 1
Cooper Flagg
Not much need to be said. Elite prospect. Good defender, good motor, super versatile on both ends and I have been very impressed by his offensive ability and growth. I think he's already showing a lot of what current Tatum brings to the table, at a much younger age than Tatum himself, and so his realistic upside could very well be even higher.
TIER 2
Dylan Harper
Not in the same tier as Flagg for me but still ahead of the rest. One of the only players that I believe has a solid chance at becoming a franchise corner stone by virtue of being an offensive anchor that does not bleed points on defense in the playoffs. I don’t fully buy his shot but he has shown enough to believe that he can keep defenses honest, and he has a chance to be one of the NBA’s best drivers who puts constant pressure on the rim. Add to that his solid, though not elite, playmaking and his offensive potential is at best Harden-esque (though that is obviously the very high-end outcome). I’m not super intrigued by his defense but he has the combination of size and strength that goes a long way in the NBA to not be targeted.
TIER 3 / 3.5
Disclaimer: I found it very hard to differentiate within this tier. Lots of talent and intrigue, but also a ton of uncertainty. I tried to rank them by projecting them as a playoff players down the road. The greater their flaws or my concerns about them, the lower I tended to rank them. That said, you can certainly argue that some of the lower-ranked players in this tier have greater upside than some of the higher-ranked ones. It’s a balancing act and ultimately, for this big board, I may have valued floor and expected value-for-money a bit more than ceiling. If I had to make decisions in the draft board, though, that may be different especially for teams that are still looking for primary building blocks.
Noa Essengue
Very intrigued by his skill set. Moves very well, has great length and the potential to be disruptive. They already switch him onto Guards without thinking twice. Offensively he is somewhat limited but has a solid variety to his game already. He cuts very well into space, has tons of upside in transition, can play in the post against mismatches, attack close-outs and does not shy away from contact (love the FTr). I buy into his shooting upside, too, even though he may never be great in that regard. Self-creation is limited (though showing some flashes) and his frame is not ideal but there is a lot to like overall. I can definitely see him as a Jaden McDaniels level of player, and I honestly don’t think Risacher is a better prospect (though admittedly I never thought of him as a potential #1 pick).
Carter Bryant
Resident fan here. I love his floor. Great (though not perfect) and versatile defender with a very projectable shot, and the ability and willingness to impact the game in a more limited role. His superb athleticism in space adds to the appeal (though it is not as impressive in smaller spaces), and he has shown flashes of being a good extra passer. Creation upside is a bit more limited as he is not the most naturally gifted ball handler, creative shot maker or finisher, though I do feel like he has more to offer than what he was allowed to show in Arizona (especially in terms of showing the ability to play in the midrange area). Even still, it’s not difficult to see him as an OG Anunoby type of player with a positive but natural improvement arc. A player who offers good to great defense (of course OG's level of defense is a high-end outcome), line-up versatility on defense, floor spacing and possibly tertiary scoring on offense all while not impeding on anything the team and star players want to do. Though I do acknowledge that the uncertainty and risk is greater when drafting players with smaller roles in college.
Cedric Coward
I am very intrigued by Coward. I do realize that there is an obvious risk with taking him so high, primarily because he has not played against the highest level of competition, he tended to struggle more against better teams, and for us hobby-scouts there is more limited footage than for others. So the natural question is whether what he did translates to higher levels, perhaps more so than for most other players, and I would not blame anyone for being lower on him. That being said, he is just so intriguing to me. His efficiency across the board, on good volume across the board, is practically unheard of and super impressive no matter the competition. His scoring arsenal is so diverse, too, and he just looks like a pro in that regard. Add to that his length, the good defensive markers and solid production across the boxscore, and it’s not hard to be excited about him and hope for a Jalen Williams-esque trajectory from here on out. One thing I'm looking out for is his development as a playmaker off the dribble as there's not much there yet; his shot creation for others is very basic and comes mostly from a standstill or in transition. That development matters a lot when it comes to his offensive ceiling.
Ace Bailey
I have long wrestled with his ranking. I was not the biggest fan of his when he entered college, and I still have concerns about his basketball iq and some of his skills. So there certainly is a world in which Bailey never lives up to even this ranking. At the same time, he has impressed me on defense for the most part. I wish he was a bit less stiff but there is no doubt that he can be an impactful help defender and secondary rim protector who offers some line-up flexibility. He also impressed me with his motor (as I thought it was going to be low when it turned out to be completely solid). On offense, I don’t expect stardom from him with his ball handling and playmaking limitations, in addition to shot selection concerns; but I do buy into him as a plus shooter (who can score on contested shots, too, which has value) and I do see him as an effective cutter. So I envision him as a plus player on both ends as long as you don’t have him making complex decisions and he accepts a non-primary role (third option on offense, or second scoring option next to a lower-usage primary playmaker, on a good team as a solid outcome (akin to Michael Porter Jr.).
V.J. Edgecombe
Once again, I have moved him up and down throughout the season and even now. I do buy Edgecombe as a playoff rotation player, so that is already a big hurdle to clear. I think he can be an effective defender, he obviously has tons of upside as a transition scorer, I do think he should be able to knock down enough shots from deep to not be left completely unguarded, and I do like his extra passing and upside as a tertiary or maybe even secondary playmaker if he develops nicely. That is a great foundation. Still, I definitely do not project him as a primary (or even secondary) offensive option with his ball handling limitations and limitations as a finisher in tight spaces, especially when you also consider that he is not likely to ever be a big shooting threat. Plus then you add his lack of elite size which makes it hard to project his defense to end up in the highest echelon of NBA perimeter defenders. But if he can be an improved version of GPII, or what Caruso is on that Thunder team, then that’s a really awesome player to have on your playoff team.
Collin Murray-Boyles
Perhaps one of the toughest evaluations in this draft (though I feel that about several players here). At first, I was not very high on him. Poor shooter without great size is the type of player I usually knock down hard when it comes to rankings. But he has won me over a great deal for several reasons. First, I really like his defense which I did not expect. He is strong, he is smart, he is switchable, and he creates events. He’s the type of defender NBA teams really benefit from having in the playoffs. And on offense, he strikes me as a player with a good feel for the game. He is a genuinely good passer, he can attack the rim in the post and on drives, and I buy him as a good finisher despite the non-elite size for a player with his playstyle. Now, I will admit that if he never develops a somewhat reliable jump shot, his fit on many NBA teams becomes problematic. But while I don’t project him to be a good shooter, I see him developing a basic 3pt shot as realistically attainable and in that case I do expect him to be a valuable NBA playoff rotation player.
Derik Queen
I am writing this as one of Queen’s biggest proponents throughout the season. There is something about him that makes me want to buy stock. What most intrigues me, and what separates him from most players that may resemble him at first glance, is that I think of him as someone who is potentially great at attacking the rim off the dribble. His ball handling for a big is very good, he is strong and creative, and he really understands how to draw and leverage contact. Add to this his upside as a playmaker, and he is a genuinely awesome offensive prospect as a big. He doesn’t have much of a 3pt shot yet and the form on his jump shot is a bit wonky, but he is not a non-shooter as evidenced by his FT% and his flashes in the midrange. He is a bit turnover prone at times but I think that can be worked out. On defense, I have defended him because I do see potential – especially out on the perimeter, since he is quite light on his feet when he tries. That in combination with his ability to attack from the perimeter also makes me believe he can play the 4 in addition to playing the 5 in the NBA. What holds him back is his conditioning and motor. Those need to be dramatically ramped up if he wants to ever be a core franchise player. Because as it stands, he’ll be a very clear negative on defense and that is rough for a starting big in the NBA, even when your offense is really good (though without great work ethic, I also think he’ll only be a good rather than great offensive big – which means he’d likely end up as a bench big). So the concerns are real but so is his upside if he ever starts taking the game seriously and work his butt off. I’m not sure how likely that is, which is why interviews and workouts will be very important for him, but the talent is too good to drop him too low.
Kasparas Jakucionis
Another player that grew on me a ton earlier in the season before falling again. What I loved about him was his scoring repertoire. Not only can he shoot, but he can use his size and physicality to get into the lane, draw contact and finish around the basket. He is also generally one of the more versatile scores in the lane. I like his upside as a playmaker but it’s clear that he’s not elite in that regard and the proneness to turn the ball over a ton is a concern. The question is: can he be the second best offensive player on a good team? And I think that is a possibility (though he will have to be a good shooter). If he’s not, however, then he’s not a lottery prospect. Because his defense (aside from rebounding) is just bad. Particularly his ability to get over and around screens was putrid, and he will definitely be targeted in the NBA by ball handlers in the PnR. He also really struggles to stay attached to off-ball players and contest their shots effectively, and that combination makes it tough to hide him. His size and strength offer some hope, but working his way up to just being below average on that end would already very much be a positive outcome.
Rasheer Fleming
How could I forget about Fleming. I have been pretty high on him for a while now. He just has good role player written all over him. And while that might not be tantalizing upside, if you ends up being an important playoff rotation player for a team then he'd have lived up to this draft position. Fleming has incredible size for a Forward with a wing span that puts most Centers to shame. He should be able to not only play the 4 but also some 5 at the next level, and with his length, plus athleticism and motor he has a very good chance to be a clear plus to potentially really good and disruptive modern NBA defender. I'd like to see him improve a bit more on the perimeter to be a truly switchable player, though. On offense, he should have a clearly defined role as an off-ball player who finishes plays at the rim and shoots from deep. Don't expect anything off the dribble or much as a decision-maker but he feels like an easy fit on offense. In the playoffs he'll have to prove to make quick and correct decisions but while never guaranteed, I do feel like that's doable. The biggest question mark probably is about his shooting improvement. Is it real and can he be a reliable or even good catch-and-shoot player in the NBA? That's to be determined but he has a decent chance and a good track record of improvement in college.
Tre Johnson
I have long debated whether I am too low on him here. And I might be. Because Tre is probably the best shot-maker from 6ft out in this draft. He can score on and off the ball, which is a great asset in the NBA, and he has shown flashes of basic playmaking that would make his actions a lot more effective if it translates. So why am I comparatively low on him? Well, I’d say that in recent years, his archetype has been overdrafted and not lived up to the hype in the NBA. I have no doubts that Tre can put up 20 PPG. But can he do it at consistently high efficiency as a player who does not get to the line all that much or finish at the rim all that well? Can NBA teams justify putting the ball in his hands when he is not an advanced playmaker? How much of the offensive value he provides is given back on defense where he projects to be negative? I’m thinking of Jalen Green, for example, who puts up big numbers but just isn’t all that impactful – and yet will be paid a ton of money. That’s the concern and why I have dropped him this far, fully aware that there is a world in which his shot making and overall offense becomes so good that he turns into an All-Star level player and make this take look off in hindsight. But I’d rather bet on the median outcome of some other players at this point in time.
Jase Richardson
For a long time, I struggled with placing him and truth be told, I still am a bit. At first, I did not think too much of him. Solid player in college, but at the next level? I just wasn’t all that intrigued. After looking into him more, I can safely say that he has moved up my board, though some others still seem to be higher on him. A key reason for that is that looking at the draft, he strikes me as the player most likely to have a Brunson-like development (of course I still would not bet on that). Meaning that I can see him being the kind of player who overcomes his size limitations (in part by using his strength, but also of course his skills and craftiness) to find a way to be a an efficient and very resilient scorer with just enough playmaking, which in turn allows him to serve as an offensive hub on an NBA team. That prospect is worth a pick in this range, in my opinion. Because his scoring efficiency and volume across the board is very impressive for his age and size. That said, it’s always a risk drafting a player of his size, especially when they are neither elite playmakers nor exceptional athletes. It’s banking on everything translating and then some, which is a risk but worth it at some point in the draft.
Adou Thiero
Thiero is another one of my favorites. I absolutely love his motor and physical tools. Strong, physical, ultra athletic, and solid measurements. Very few players can put exert as much pressure on their drives and cuts as he can, and he combines it with a non-stop motor. Give him a lane and he will either dunk it on you, finish through you, or draw a foul. Over and over again. That kind of superpower is a great baseline to work with because it gives him leverage even in the NBA. Plus he can absolutely weak havoc on defense as one of the elite stocks prospects over the past few drafts. Still, I would not call him an elite defender because he relies on athleticism more than instincts and smarts, which is to be expected from someone who could always dominate with athleticism; but the tools can certainly be harnessed. I think his playmaking is fine for his position and role, too, though you’d hope for some improvement before you trust him more with the ball in his hands. The obvious swing skill is his shot. Can he reliably knock down shots in the NBA and playoffs? I don’t know. But that will likely be the key distinguishing factor between energy guy off the bench and long-term starter. Because everything else, while not necessarily polished, can be worked with. He’s not a copy of Tari Eason, to be sure, but that is probably the blueprint for his role and minutes at the next level. One other thing he has going for him: he has shown improvement every year. I like to bet on such players.
Egor Demin
Demin might epitomize the roller coaster that is this year’s draft more than anyone else (though there are several candidates). I did not think of him too highly when I watched Real Madrid play at a youth tournament but that may also have been because he was not my primary focus back then. He then popped off the screen earlier in the season with his tantalizing passing ability paired with his great size. He seemed to always make the right play, too, and the scoring game against weaker opponents while not particularly good was still decent enough. That’s when I was really high on him. Unfortunately, his struggles against better opponents really made me reconsider. His inability to handle the ball under any kind of pressure does not bode well at all for his creation upside at the next level, and the shooting indicators are just not good enough to confidently project him as at least a capable shooter. So that’s two major concerns about a player who needs to ball in his hands to be maximized. His defense should be solid which is a plus for a primary or secondary offensive player, but it’s not good enough to lift him much up if he’s less than that. I think a decent outcome for him is a Josh Giddey arc but even that’s not overly exciting. There’s a chance he ends up better but also that he ends up worse. Ultimately though, with his next level passing chops while being Forward-sized, he still belongs in this draft range for what he could be if he truly hits and the fact that those two aspects help raise his floor (as long as he can at least knock down open shots which seems doable).
THE REST
Players that I have coming up next and firmly in the first round include Thomas Sorber, Kon Knueppel, Jeremiah Fears, Asa Newell, Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton and Will Riley (I might be missing one or two others). Those are all players that I either see as solid NBA players without a ton of upside, or potentially good (though not likely great) NBA players who, however, have a relatively low floor. Khaman Maluach, Nique Clifford and Ryan Kalkbrenner are players I am somewhat less confident about but who still belong in the conversation for what they could bring to playoff teams as potential rotation players.
I haven’t watched much of the international guys and only included one in the above group in Essengue. There is a chance that someone else would make it into that top 15 if I followed them more closely. Among the players I have seen a bit of, I’d say that Traore and Saraf for me are in the group right after the top 15. For Traore that’s a steep fall considering how high I was on him last summer, but the risk of him busting is very real as far as I’m concerned; and I’m not sure the upside is indeed worth taking him in the lottery regardless. Intuitively, I’d say that Hugo González also belongs in this group but that is all based on his performances with the youth teams and therefore not anything I state with confidence.
edit: I just noticed that I completely forgot about Fleming who I have been quite high on. As with others I could have put him a bit higher or lower depending on priorities. I thought about putting him right after CMB or right next to Thiero, but either way I'd have him in the (now) top 15.