Brandon Miller - Alabama

[reanimator]

I liked Jabari more because of his defensive potential but ultimately it all boils down to Miller's handle/passing development.

[Hal14]

Just we are on the same page, everyone is in agreement Jabari Smith Jr is the far better prospect right?

Of course ignore Jabari's current season

I wouldn't say that.

Jabari was a 3&D guy. You don't take guys like that in the top 3.

3&D guys are just role players. I am shooting for more upside that high in the draft.

People who tried to justify taking him top 3 (or even top 2) would try to comp him to Klay. But c'mon man, give me a break. Klay is arguably the 2nd greatest shooter to ever live. It's ridiculous to make that comp - not realistic for Jabari to become that level of shooter.

Jabari had a really low FG% at the rim, a really high % of his shots at the rim that got blocked, a low number of dunks for a guy his size. Lots of red flags. Not to mention he couldn't get anywhere off the dribble, couldn't create space, had to always settle for difficult, contested jumpers.

Not to mention, your value as a prospect is lower if such a huge part of your value as a prospect lies in your shooting. Because what if the shots aren't falling? Then it's hard to keep you on the floor. It's especially a slippery slope if we're talking about a 1 and done player, who only has a sample size of 1 season as an elite shooter vs tough competition. You're banking an awful lot on that 1 season, really crossing your fingers, taking him so high.

I think Miller is a much better passer than Jabari, he's not far off defensively, and he is WAY better at getting to rim, and creating his own shot off the dribble, getting to his spots, etc. which gives him more star upside.

With that being said, Jabari was also a younger prospect than Miller, which is why I think it's close. Even with all I just said about Jabari, the fact that he was very young for his class (and appeared to have a really strong work ethic) made me think that he could develop his off the dribble and rim finishing stuff - which is why I didn't rank him tooooo low (I had him ranked 4th).

But I have Miller ranked 3rd in this class and have Miller as a slightly better prospect.

[Catchall]

In terms of physical profile and athleticism, it might be fair to say Brandon Miller is somewhat similar to Trey Murphy at Virginia. If we look at Miller's shooting splits, they're also somewhat comparable to Trey Murphy's. Actually, Murphy's are a bit better, but let's assume that if Murphy had higher usage their raw numbers and shooting splits would be pretty comparable.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say you agree with me so far. How much better is Brandon Miller as an on-ball creator, passer and driver than Trey Murphy? Why is Miller a top-5 pick, while Trey Murphy was a mid-first round pick? Is Miller that much smoother and craftier?

I like Brandon Miller btw. I just have him about #7 on my board, while it seems like half of the world is group-thinking he's a top-3 prospect.

Watch on YouTube

[The-Power]

In terms of physical profile and athleticism, it might be fair to say Brandon Miller is somewhat similar to Trey Murphy at Virginia. If we look at Miller's shooting splits, they're also somewhat comparable to Trey Murphy's. Actually, Murphy's are a bit better, but let's assume that if Murphy had higher usage their raw numbers and shooting splits would be pretty comparable.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say you agree with me so far. How much better is Brandon Miller as an on-ball creator, passer and driver than Trey Murphy? Why is Miller a top-5 pick, while Trey Murphy was a mid-first round pick? Is Miller that much smoother and craftier?

I like Brandon Miller btw. I just have him about #7 on my board, while it seems like half of the world is group-thinking he's a top-3 prospect.

There are a couple things to unpack here.

#1: ‘Let's just assume that if Murphy had higher usage...” That assumption is problematic in and of itself. There's a reason that Miller is the #1 option on one of the best teams in the country, while Murphy had a lower scoring load even in his 3rd year. It's because Miller can create offense by himself much more reliably.

#2: Either you are comparing Murphy in his 3rd year to Freshman Miller. Or you're comparing Freshman/Sophomore Murphy while he was playing in the CUSA to Miller playing in the SEC. Neither of these comparisons are exactly fair when looking at their respective performances and numbers.

#3: Murphy, with the knowledge we have now, would be drafted higher than he was. It's in the nature of the draft that evaluations change. Paul George was drafted 10th. Should people have to justify why player X is considered a top 3 pick when Paul George was drafted 10th? Of course not. That implies that any player that was drafted too low in hindsight is the benchmark, and that doesn't make sense. It's akin to asking: “why is Brandon Miller only considered a top 7 prospect when Otto Porter Jr. went 3rd and Anthony Bennett was drafted #1?”

And, of course, this line of arguing can be done for any prospect. Just list the 6 prospects you have ahead of Miller and I am positive that I can come up with some base-level comparison of a player who looked kind of similar (if you disregard some important differences) and was drafted in the middle or towards the end of the 1st round. If we take that approach to its logical conclusion, then in the end almost no prospect could legitimately be seen as a lottery pick. Obviously that doesn't make sense.

But since Trey Murphy's name has been thrown around here, I'll leave some other comparisons of players with more similar usage, similar level conference (for the first two) while being underclassmen. Per 40 minutes (to include those for whom per 100 possessions numbers aren't available):

Brandon Miller: 22.6 PTS | 10.0 REB | 2.4 AST | 1.1 STL | 0.9 BLK ||| 2.2 TOV | 48.4 2P% | 42.5 3P% | 82.5 FT% |60.8 TS%
Jayson Tatum: 20.2 PTS | 8.8 REB | 2.6 AST | 1.6 STL | 1.4 BLK ||| 3.1 TOV | 50.4 2P% | 34.2 3P% | 84.9 FT% |56.6 TS%
Brandon Ingram: 20.0 PTS | 7.8 REB | 2.3 AST | 1.3 STL | 1.6 BLK ||| 2.3 TOV | 46.4 2P% | 41.0 3P% | 68.2 FT% |55.2 TS%
Paul George (ø): 18.2 PTS | 7.9 REB | 2.8 AST | 2.3 STL | 1.1 BLK ||| 3.2 TOV | 48.5 2P% | 39.6 3P% | 80.3 FT% |57.9 TS%

All of them have very similar profiles and Miller compares well to any of them, especially on offense. Now the question: is Miller's athleticism or creation so much worse than that of these borderline MVP/All-NBA level players that he doesn't even warrant the 3rd pick? Or at least a top 5 pick?

As for Jabari Smith versus Brandon Miller: I would not agree that Smith is a better prospect, much less ‘much better’. I think they are in the same tier. I might have Miller slightly ahead as I can see him in a more on-ball role which has a lot of value but I also understand if someone prefers Jabari's better size and defensive potential – and factors in age more strongly – over Miller. It's close, and not set in stone yet, but certainly not an easy choice either way for me personally.

[The-Power]

I thought last nights game vs a great Tennessee defense kind of exemplified what I meant by "meh" handle. He had 1 nice change of direction where he made his man drop, but Rick Barnes put a small, strong, stout defender with good foot speed on him and Miller couldn't get anywhere in the halfcourt. In transition and offball, however, he was a problem.

Well, I think it depends on who the comparison is. If it's Luka Doncic then sure, Miller has a ‘meh’ handle. But if we compare it to most 6'8/6'9 wings in the league then my question is: which one of them wouldn't struggle to consistently get to their spots at a young age when defended by ‘a small, strong, stout defender with good foot speed’. If that's the baseline then we could call Durant's handles ‘meh’, and the only ones with a better than ‘meh’ handle are essentially true Point Forwards or outliers.

[Catchall]

In terms of physical profile and athleticism, it might be fair to say Brandon Miller is somewhat similar to Trey Murphy at Virginia. If we look at Miller's shooting splits, they're also somewhat comparable to Trey Murphy's. Actually, Murphy's are a bit better, but let's assume that if Murphy had higher usage their raw numbers and shooting splits would be pretty comparable.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say you agree with me so far. How much better is Brandon Miller as an on-ball creator, passer and driver than Trey Murphy? Why is Miller a top-5 pick, while Trey Murphy was a mid-first round pick? Is Miller that much smoother and craftier?

I like Brandon Miller btw. I just have him about #7 on my board, while it seems like half of the world is group-thinking he's a top-3 prospect.

There are a couple things to unpack here.

#1: ‘Let's just assume that if Murphy had higher usage...” That assumption is problematic in and of itself. There's a reason that Miller is the #1 option on one of the best teams in the country, while Murphy had a lower scoring load even in his 3rd year. It's because Miller can create offense by himself much more reliably.

#2: Either you are comparing Murphy in his 3rd year to Freshman Miller. Or you're comparing Freshman/Sophomore Murphy while he was playing in the CUSA to Miller playing in the SEC. Neither of these comparisons allow for the use of raw numbers.

#3: Murphy, with the knowledge we have now, would be drafted higher than he was. It's in the nature of the draft that evaluations change. Paul George was drafted 10th. Should people have to justify why player X is considered a top 3 pick when Paul George was drafted 10th? Of course not.

And, of course, this line of arguing can be done for any prospect. Just list the 6 prospects you have ahead of Miller and I am positive that I can come up with some base-level comparison of a player who looked kind of similar (if you regard some important differences) and was drafted in the middle or towards the end of the 1st round. If we take that to its logical conclusions, then in the end no prospect would be seen as a lottery pick. Obviously that doesn't make sense.

But since Trey Murphy has been thrown around here, I'll leave some other comparisons of players with more similar usage, similar level conference and underclassmen. Per 40 minutes (to include those for whom per 100 possessions numbers aren't available):

Brandon Miller: 22.6 PTS | 10.0 REB | 2.4 AST | 1.1 STL | 0.9 BLK ||| 2.2 TOV | 48.4 2P% | 42.5 3P% | 82.5 FT% |60.8 TS%
Jayson Tatum: 20.2 PTS | 8.8 REB | 2.6 AST | 1.6 STL | 1.4 BLK ||| 3.1 TOV | 50.4 2P% | 34.2 3P% | 84.9 FT% |56.6 TS%
Brandon Ingram: 20.0 PTS | 7.8 REB | 2.3 AST | 1.3 STL | 1.6 BLK ||| 2.3 TOV | 46.4 2P% | 41.0 3P% | 68.2 FT% |55.2 TS%
Paul George (ø): 18.2 PTS | 7.9 REB | 2.8 AST | 2.3 STL | 1.1 BLK ||| 3.2 TOV | 48.5 2P% | 39.6 3P% | 80.3 FT% |57.9 TS%

All of them have very similar profiles and Miller compares well to any of them, especially on offense. Now the question: is Miller's athleticism or creation so much worse than these borderline MVP/All-NBA level players that he doesn't even warrant the 3rd pick?

As for Jabari Smith versus Brandon Miller: I would not agree that Smith is a better prospect, much less ‘much better’. I think they are in the same tier. I might have Miller slightly ahead as I can see him in a more on-ball role which has a lot of value but I also understand if someone prefers Jabari's better size and defensive potential – and factors in age more strongly – over Miller. It's close but certainly not an easy choice either way for me personally.

Appreciate the work you've done above...

#1: I would argue first that that majority of Brandon Miller's scoring is not self-created. In fact, his self-creation is a weakness in my opinion. Most of his scoring is off catch-and-shoot opportunities enabled by other players on his team creating time and space for him to square up. What percentage of Miller's buckets are assisted rather than unassisted? Someone can look that up.

#2: I am comparing 3rd-year Trey Murphy to freshman Brandon Miller. However, Trey Murphy was only 4.5 months older at the time of the draft than Brandon Miller will be this June. In other words, they're very close to the same age and physical development during the year they'll be drafted, so (at least by age) Trey's junior year the most valid year to use for comparison.

#3: I would argue that in terms of athleticism, ability to create space with footwork, ability to beat defenders off the dribble, and ability finish above the rim, these other players you're listing---Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram and Paul George--are all markedly superior offensive players to Miller. A baseline comp for Brandon Miller is actually closer to Trey Murphy, imo, in terms of physical profile, shot composition and scoring efficiency.

I agree that Paul George would go higher in a redraft of his class. I agree that Trey Murphy would also go higher in a redraft of his class. Looking at this particular draft class, however, I would consider taking Brandon Miller after Victor, Scoot, Amen, Keyonte, Jarace and possibly Cam as well. A team that wants to make a more conservative pick might take Miller in the top 5 or 6, but I prefer drafting for upside.

I think Brandon Miller is a very good college player, and his stats put him right up with the likes of Shane Battier, Keegan Murray and not too far behind Michael Beasley. As an NBA prospect, however, he doesn't have the physical tools other than size and shooting that will readily translate. He won't create separation or beat NBA defenders off the dribble, and he's going to have a hard time finishing near the rim unless he has an open lane.

In my opinion, he's more Trey Murphy, Nic Batum or possibly Khris Middleton at the next level than comps like Paul George or Jayson Tatum.

[reanimator]

I thought last nights game vs a great Tennessee defense kind of exemplified what I meant by "meh" handle. He had 1 nice change of direction where he made his man drop, but Rick Barnes put a small, strong, stout defender with good foot speed on him and Miller couldn't get anywhere in the halfcourt. In transition and offball, however, he was a problem.

Well, I think it depends on who the comparison is. If it's Luka Doncic then sure, Miller has a ‘meh’ handle. But if we compare it to most 6'8/6'9 wings in the league then my question is: which one of them wouldn't struggle to consistently get to their spots at a young age when defended by ‘a small, strong, stout defender with good foot speed’. If that's the baseline then we could call Durant's handles ‘meh’, and the only ones with a better than ‘meh’ handle are essentially true Point Forwards or outliers.

Fair point...the vast majority of present day elite 3/4 were not young ballhandling maestros, but I'd argue that they have some blend of footwork, size, length, or clear value beyond scoring in ways Miller maybe isn't apparent to me and so this shortcoming was/is easier to overlook. He might even grade out as a better shooter than any name mentioned in this thread but outside of a flash or two playmaking which I can't rely on since its not replicated consistently, I don't see another skill where he can create advantages and while tall he isn't explosive like a pre injury PG, or bulky yet nimble like a Doncic or Tatum, or freakishly long like an Ingram KD or Kawhi. And that is no knock on him as I think he has a high floor with a good shot at being in that 2nd or 3rd rung of 3/4 in the league some day.

[Hal14]

In terms of physical profile and athleticism, it might be fair to say Brandon Miller is somewhat similar to Trey Murphy at Virginia. If we look at Miller's shooting splits, they're also somewhat comparable to Trey Murphy's. Actually, Murphy's are a bit better, but let's assume that if Murphy had higher usage their raw numbers and shooting splits would be pretty comparable.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say you agree with me so far. How much better is Brandon Miller as an on-ball creator, passer and driver than Trey Murphy? Why is Miller a top-5 pick, while Trey Murphy was a mid-first round pick? Is Miller that much smoother and craftier?

I like Brandon Miller btw. I just have him about #7 on my board, while it seems like half of the world is group-thinking he's a top-3 prospect.

Watch on YouTube

1) Murphy should have gotten picked higher than he did. He might go as high as 8th or 9th in a re-draft.
2) Murphy was a junior when he was drafted. Miller is only a freshman. Big difference
3) VERY big difference in Miller's ability to create his own shot off the dribble, shoot off movement and pass the rock. Murphy was really just a spot up shooter. He was a junior and he could barely dribble a basketball - except for a few rare flashes of attacking closeouts on straight line drives.
4) Murphy was just a role player for Virginia. He was just a guy who could play good D and hit some 3's. That was pretty much it - and he was a junior. Miller on the other hand is THE guy for Bama, the alpha, the leading scorer, the go to guy - as a freshman - for arguably the best team in college basketball.
5) don't say that it's just group think that's causing us to rank Miller at. I could care less what anyone else's rankings are on here lol. I have him ranked 3 based on my own evaluation - based on the eye test, physical profile, stats, upside, etc.

[The-Power]

Appreciate the work you've done above...

Dito. Even though we disagree, it's the kind of discussion about prospects that we should strive to have more of – not combative or personal, not cherry-picked, not talking in absolutes. So I can appreciate that.

#1: I would argue first that that majority of Brandon Miller's scoring is not self-created. In fact, his self-creation is a weakness in my opinion. Most of his scoring is off catch-and-shoot opportunities enabled by other players on his team creating time and space for him to square up. What percentage of Miller's buckets are assisted rather than unassisted? Someone can look that up.

Perhaps someone could shed light on this and put it into context. I don't have access to synergy data. But also, the question to me is what you view as self-creation. If it's only creation after a lot of dribbling then I agree that's not his primary game (although he can do it, which is where he sets himself apart from some of the mostly off-ball comparisons in my opinion).

But I'd argue that if a player is coming off screens to fire away 3s – that's self-creation, too. Or at the very least, it's not ‘enabled by other players’ because it doesn't require the passer to have any particular skill. In other words, it's not the same as someone standing in the corner just waiting for someone else to break the defense down and kick out, where most of the credit for the creation goes to the one who breaks down the defense and passes out.

For example: when Curry runs around three screens while Draymond Green holds the ball waiting for Curry to get free so he can pass it and Curry fires away an off-balance 3; or when Ben Simmons throws the ball into the post to KD who turns around and shoots over the defender – I wouldn't call that being reliant on others even when the basket is technically assisted. So that statistic alone doesn't tell the whole story.

Of course that's not exactly what Miller does. But I would argue that this is often times closer to what he does than, for instance, what DFS did with Luka, where he just stands in the corner and waits for the shot to be created for him. Miller's role on the creation of even his assisted baskets is a lot bigger.

#2: I am comparing 3rd-year Trey Murphy to freshman Brandon Miller. However, Trey Murphy was only 4.5 months older at the time of the draft than Brandon Miller will be this June. In other words, they're very close to the same age and physical development during the year they'll be drafted, so (at least by age) Trey's junior year the most valid year to use for comparison.

I understand the age discussion but I never really liked this line of reasoning. Just because Brandon Miller is older doesn't mean that he's not a Freshman or that he's now comparable to a Junior. Just like every other Freshman, he had no prior experience playing at this level and needed to adapt (case in point: 2P%). Just like every other Freshman, he didn't have the same kind of training regimen or opportunities available to him that D1 basketball offers. That's important to keep in mind.

So while age has to be factored in to some extent – I agree – it's not the only reference point that matters. Experience at the level matters, too. So purely age-wise, Miller is somewhere between Murphy in his 2nd and 3rd year (but not just his 3rd year). Experience-wise, Miller is somewhere between Murphy's 1st and 2nd year (additional HS experience counts for a bit), but probably closer to his 1st year. Either way, 3rd year Murphy to 1st year Miller is not a fair comparison any way you slice or weigh it.

#3: I would argue that in terms of athleticism, ability to create space with footwork, ability to beat defenders off the dribble, and ability finish above the rim, these other players you're listing---Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram and Paul George--are all markedly superior offensive players to Miller. A baseline comp for Brandon Miller is actually closer to Trey Murphy, imo, in terms of physical profile, shot composition and scoring efficiency.

Here's where we disagree, and where we might just have to agree to disagree because it's inherently subjective. But I'll present my thoughts on this one last time to make it clear.

I don't think Miller is a special on-ball creator. His handles aren't elite, he doesn't get elite separation, his current shooting form limits him in the midrange area a bit, and he's not particularly explosive. That being said, I do see some advanced moves on the drives that bode well for NBA creation. Last game, for instance, he drew a shooting foul in the PnR by using the initial pick to start his drive with the left hand, slowed down his dribble to put the defender on his back while the big man was between him and rim, switched to the right hand and used the presence of the roll man to weave to the rim where he was fouled. That kind of creation is not something you see from players who live off catch-and-shoot situations and open-lane drives. That's advanced, especially for a Freshman wing, and it's of course only one of various examples especially as of late.

I agree that Paul George would go higher in a redraft of his class. I agree that Trey Murphy would also go higher in a redraft of his class. Looking at this particular draft class, however, I would consider taking Brandon Miller after Victor, Scoot, Amen, Keyonte, Jarace and possibly Cam as well. A team that wants to make a more conservative pick might take Miller in the top 5 or 6, but I prefer drafting for upside.

That's the thing with upside, it's very subjective. I don't think a team that drafts Miller should be considered taking a ‘conservative’ approach. Miller's realistic ceiling is, in my opinion, higher than that of most players you listed. Primarily because a 6'8/6'9 wing who can shoot, defend and create for himself and others is the single most coveted type of player in the NBA. Whether or not he gets there is a different question but that's true for all the other players as well, and Miller's solid floor provides protection.

I think Brandon Miller is a very good college player, and his stats put him right up with the likes of Shane Battier, Keegan Murray and not too far behind Michael Beasley. As an NBA prospect, however, he doesn't have the physical tools other than size and shooting that will readily translate. He won't create separation or beat NBA defenders off the dribble, and he's going to have a hard time finishing near the rim unless he has an open lane.

In my opinion, he's more Trey Murphy, Nic Batum or possibly Khris Middleton at the next level than comps like Paul George or Jayson Tatum.

His stats also put him right up there with Ingram, Tatum and PG. Battier and Murray were years older and/or upperclassmen when they had such a strong season, too. I understand that you don't see him as the next Ingram, Tatum or PG, but I also just don't see the comparisons with players who just do not have the on-ball abilities to play in an extended (even if secondary or tertiary) on-ball role in the NBA. I suppose this is where most of our disagreements stem from. But even of that I'm not fully sure, because Batum is very different from Murphy in terms of role and on-ball ability and you mention both of them as comparisons.

Re: Translation. We'll always have to wait and see what translates. That's the case for any prospect. But to already have two things that will most definitely translate – size and shooting – is huge! For the Thompson twins, we only have open-court athleticism that is sure to translate. For Jarace we only have his size. For Keyonte there's nothing we can be absolutely sure will fully translate to the NBA except perhaps shot creation creativity (if that counts). For Whitmore we only know for sure that he has sufficient athleticism for the NBA.

I'm not saying Miller is definitely going to end up better than all of them. I don't know. And there will be a lot of other things that these guys will do at an NBA level. But while you make it seem like a flaw that only his size and shooting will easily translate, I think that's more than we can say about most other prospects. You may think that, for instance, Keyonte's shooting, or Jarace's passing and switching defense, or Whitmore's ability to drive, are more likely to translate than Miller's shot creation. That's a subjective assessment that I won't argue against. But the point still stands: Miller has a relatively high floor because of what you just mentioned, and with respect to ceilings and what translates, we don't know for sure with any of these prospects. But I certainly believe that the kind of player Miller could be is the kind of player that all NBA teams highly covet.

[The-Power]

Fair point...the vast majority of present day elite 3/4 were not young ballhandling maestros, but I'd argue that they have some blend of footwork, size, length, or clear value beyond scoring in ways Miller maybe isn't apparent to me and so this shortcoming was/is easier to overlook. He might even grade out as a better shooter than any name mentioned in this thread but outside of a flash or two playmaking which I can't rely on since its not replicated consistently, I don't see another skill where he can create advantages and while tall he isn't explosive like a pre injury PG, or bulky yet nimble like a Doncic or Tatum, or freakishly long like an Ingram KD or Kawhi. And that is no knock on him as I think he has a high floor with a good shot at being in that 2nd or 3rd rung of 3/4 in the league some day.

How much of that is with the benefit of hindsight, though? We all have a tendency to look at what these players are today rather than what they looked like as prospects when everyone still had to project and still had concerns. It's how our brain, and recency bias, works.

For instance, you seemed to have had more concerns about Tatum back then than you have about Miller right now. A lot of what Tatum does right now is not what most of us expected of him back then. But what our brain does, I believe, is that with the knowledge of today we look back and find it easy to point to all the signs of what was to come. There's a good chance that if Miller comes out and develops well, we'll do the same the next time a prospect like Miller comes around and essentially creative a narrative around the player that is vastly different from when he was still a prospect. Or vice versa, if he busts then we'll readily point out all the supposed red flags that should have been obvious to spot.

[The-Power]

On the ball handling again. In this video what he does at the 4:00, 28:30 and 30:00 minute marks is why I believe he has self-creation upside. There just aren't many players his size and age that pull off these kind of moves regularly against legit competition.

Watch on YouTube

[NYPiston]

Just we are on the same page, everyone is in agreement Jabari Smith Jr is the far better prospect right?

Of course ignore Jabari's current season

No, not everybody is in agreement on that.

Jabari might have been more advanced defensively but Miller provides more offensive versatility/better handle. I think Miller has more upside because he has more offensive growth in him while Jabari is pretty much a 3 and D guy.

[CptCrunch]

Glad we got all these bad takes on the record between Jabari/Miller.

[reanimator]

Fair point...the vast majority of present day elite 3/4 were not young ballhandling maestros, but I'd argue that they have some blend of footwork, size, length, or clear value beyond scoring in ways Miller maybe isn't apparent to me and so this shortcoming was/is easier to overlook. He might even grade out as a better shooter than any name mentioned in this thread but outside of a flash or two playmaking which I can't rely on since its not replicated consistently, I don't see another skill where he can create advantages and while tall he isn't explosive like a pre injury PG, or bulky yet nimble like a Doncic or Tatum, or freakishly long like an Ingram KD or Kawhi. And that is no knock on him as I think he has a high floor with a good shot at being in that 2nd or 3rd rung of 3/4 in the league some day.

How much of that is with the benefit of hindsight, though? We all have a tendency to look at what these players are today rather than what they looked like as prospects when everyone still had to project and still had concerns. It's how our brain, and recency bias, works.

For instance, you seemed to have had more concerns about Tatum back then than you have about Miller right now. A lot of what Tatum does right now is not what most of us expected of him back then. But what our brain does, I believe, is that with the knowledge of today we look back and find it easy to point to all the signs of what was to come. There's a good chance that if Miller comes out and develops well, we'll do the same the next time a prospect like Miller comes around and essentially creative a narrative around the player that is vastly different from when he was still a prospect. Or vice versa, if he busts then we'll readily point out all the supposed red flags that should have been obvious to spot.

I agree with all of this and even thought about how bias/hindsight might be impacting me, however, someone being mold shattering is still a pretty high bar to clear but maybe Miller is an outlier who creates his own "mold" that'll be recontextualized in hindsight and I'll gladly be wrong but I think the odds favor that not being the case. No one is without misses but I'll play the percentages and be conservative. I don't even think the the gap between the people who are gung-ho on Miller and those who aren't as enthusiastic is that big. I think we all agree the floor is a highly integratabtle starting forward in the league. Even if he never develops onball, he should still be a top half of the lottery pick and a very valuable player in the league.

Also let me ask this, if Miller compares favorably at the same stage of development to the top forwards in the league then I would assume you might have him in the same tier as Scoot and if not why?

[NYPiston]

Glad we got all these bad takes on the record between Jabari/Miller.

Haha, that's rich coming from you.

[CptCrunch]

Glad we got all these bad takes on the record between Jabari/Miller.

Haha, that's rich coming from you.

Please feel right to bump all my bad takes. My track record over the past few years has been impeccable (partly due to luck, partly due to being good at analytically picking out the busts)

[NYPiston]

Please feel right to bump all my bad takes. My track record over the past few years has been impeccable (partly due to luck, partly due to being good at analytically picking out the busts)

You say "everybody agrees that Jabari is the far better prospect" with nothing to back up that statement then several posters disagree with that statement explaining why they are similar level prospects and your rebuttal is "Glad we got all these bad takes on the record about Jabari/Miller" and again with nothing to back up that statement so you can see why I scoffed at you calling out others for bad takes.

[Hal14]

Glad we got all these bad takes on the record between Jabari/Miller.

just because someone's opinion is different than yours, it doesn't make it a bad take.

[CptCrunch]

This is getting commical at this point posters with the worst track records on this board, literally the who's who of baking bad picks over past two seasons, getting offended over some unobserved future event.

Just for clarity, I'm not suggesting that Brandon Miller has be worse than Jabari given that Jabari is playing like pure ass in the league right. I'm just suggeting that you captain hindsights might see these posts bumped next year. I'm keeping track.

[The Moose]

Just we are on the same page, everyone is in agreement Jabari Smith Jr is the far better prospect right?

Of course ignore Jabari's current season

Yeah, Jabari was 1.5 years younger as a prospect , same level shooting talent and a much better defender.

I wasn’t that high on Jabari , but I’d still take him over Miller as a prospect