2022 NBA Draft

[zimpy27]

What's becoming clear to me, in some sense, is that the top 5 for this next draft is set in stone: Banchero, Ivey, Chet, Sharpe and Jabari.

Do you guys agree with this assessment? Or is Sharpe a tier below? Or someone like Johnny Davis could jump up?

I have Davis at 5 and Ivey at 6.

I think Banchero, Chet, Jabari, Sharpe are all top 5 guys. The last of the top 5 isn't set yet to me.

[clyde21]

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Mobley
Cade

Jabari
Green
Paolo
Suggs
Chet

Ivey

[Big J]

What's becoming clear to me, in some sense, is that the top 5 for this next draft is set in stone: Banchero, Ivey, Chet, Sharpe and Jabari.

Do you guys agree with this assessment? Or is Sharpe a tier below? Or someone like Johnny Davis could jump up?

There's always someone who rockets up in the last couple months before the draft like Barnes did last year.

[zimpy27]

Chet Holmgren just looks really good to me, having one of the best college seasons ever. What are some of the reasons people don't see him as a top 3 guy?

[The Moose]

Chet Holmgren just looks really good to me, having one of the best college seasons ever. What are some of the reasons people don't see him as a top 3 guy?

I have him and Jabari at the top by themselves in this class. But, from what I’ve seen of people who don’t, it’s usually about Chet’s frame and speed limiting some of his defensive impact at the nba level and also whether or not he’s more than just a catch and shoot player in an NBA offense.

But yeah, for me it’s Jabari and Chet and the others are a decent distance behind

[babyjax13]

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Mobley
Cade

Jabari
Green
Paolo
Suggs
Chet

Ivey

Cade (I would have Mobley over him now, but not going to do hindsight)
Mobley

Smith
Chet
Ivey

Paolo
Suggs
Green (moved Green down here, pretty sure I had Suggs over him pre-draft but they were very close, regardless)

Like all of them a lot. I thought Ivey would go 5-8 if he declared last year, and was hoping he would. He's improved a lot, and elevated himself in my eyes as a prospect.

[Duke4life831]

Chet Holmgren just looks really good to me, having one of the best college seasons ever. What are some of the reasons people don't see him as a top 3 guy?

My biggest question mark when it comes to Chet is can he do these things against NBA size, strength, and athleticism.

Its one thing to put up these kinds of numbers against San Diego. Its when he has gone up against the Texas, Duke, UCLA, and Alabama. Its not nearly the same kind of level of impact. Dont get me wrong Im not saying he is all bad in those games he played good in most of them. And I think a lot of people including myself have the question, what happens when he takes that next step of quality of opposition. Then the other question is, how long until he can put good weight on, also how much good weight can he put on with his frame.

Also to be clear, this isnt me saying he shouldn't be a lock for a top 5 pick. I definitely think he is. Just pointing out why there are some questions with him and why sadly the vast majority of WCC games wont give us a better answer to these questions. Because of just the lack of size and athleticism in that conference and that is the biggest question with Chet. Can he show the high level of offensive versatility and hold his own in the paint against legit big men with size and athleticism.

[The-Power]

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Mobley
Cade

Jabari
Green
Paolo
Suggs
Chet

Ivey

Without using hindsight, or as we look at the Rookies now?

Compared to where I had them prior to the draft, I'd probably say something like:

Cade

Green
Ivey
Mobley
Jabari

And then Suggs, with Paolo and Chet in some order (still no clue where exactly to put Chet) behind him (but same tier).

[CptCrunch]

Chet Holmgren just looks really good to me, having one of the best college seasons ever. What are some of the reasons people don't see him as a top 3 guy?

My biggest question mark when it comes to Chet is can he do these things against NBA size, strength, and athleticism.

Its one thing to put up these kinds of numbers against San Diego. Its when he has gone up against the Texas, Duke, UCLA, and Alabama. Its not nearly the same kind of level of impact. Dont get me wrong Im not saying he is all bad in those games he played good in most of them. And I think a lot of people including myself have the question, what happens when he takes that next step of quality of opposition. Then the other question is, how long until he can put good weight on, also how much good weight can he put on with his frame.

Also to be clear, this isnt me saying he shouldn't be a lock for a top 5 pick. I definitely think he is. Just pointing out why there are some questions with him and why sadly the vast majority of WCC games wont give us a better answer to these questions. Because of just the lack of size and athleticism in that conference and that is the biggest question with Chet. Can he show the high level of offensive versatility and hold his own in the paint against legit big men with size and athleticism.

Code: Select all

|Rank     | GameScore|   PTS|   TRB|   AST|   BLK|   STL|   TOV|    PF| FTPct| Pct2Pt| Pct3Pt|
|:--------|---------:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|------:|------:|
|Top20    |     8.920|  9.60| 8.000| 1.000| 3.200| 0.200| 1.600| 3.000| 0.636|  0.696|  0.214|
|Top50    |    19.800| 19.00| 9.333| 1.333| 4.333| 0.667| 1.333| 3.000| 0.727|  0.824|  0.583|
|BadTeams |    16.325| 15.25| 9.083| 2.417| 3.083| 0.583| 2.417| 1.667| 0.766|  0.750|  0.528

Just a simple showcase, his production tanks against top 20 teams (current rank based on KenPom, not rank at time of play). "Bad teams" are any teams rank > 50. Gonzaga has a lot of bottom feeders.

Chet's play does not instill confidence in me. Let alone his ability to translate with his frame. Here is a plot of basically the same data, he struggles against better competition. It is difficult for me to justify drafting him #1 based on his play against top P5 teams.



Game Score (GmSc) is an imperfect metric, but it serves as a reasonable aggregate summary of counting stats much like PER in this case.

[zimpy27]

Chet Holmgren just looks really good to me, having one of the best college seasons ever. What are some of the reasons people don't see him as a top 3 guy?

My biggest question mark when it comes to Chet is can he do these things against NBA size, strength, and athleticism.

Its one thing to put up these kinds of numbers against San Diego. Its when he has gone up against the Texas, Duke, UCLA, and Alabama. Its not nearly the same kind of level of impact. Dont get me wrong Im not saying he is all bad in those games he played good in most of them. And I think a lot of people including myself have the question, what happens when he takes that next step of quality of opposition. Then the other question is, how long until he can put good weight on, also how much good weight can he put on with his frame.

Also to be clear, this isnt me saying he shouldn't be a lock for a top 5 pick. I definitely think he is. Just pointing out why there are some questions with him and why sadly the vast majority of WCC games wont give us a better answer to these questions. Because of just the lack of size and athleticism in that conference and that is the biggest question with Chet. Can he show the high level of offensive versatility and hold his own in the paint against legit big men with size and athleticism.

Code: Select all

|Rank     | GameScore|   PTS|   TRB|   AST|   BLK|   STL|   TOV|    PF| FTPct| Pct2Pt| Pct3Pt|
|:--------|---------:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|------:|------:|
|Top20    |     8.920|  9.60| 8.000| 1.000| 3.200| 0.200| 1.600| 3.000| 0.636|  0.696|  0.214|
|Top50    |    19.800| 19.00| 9.333| 1.333| 4.333| 0.667| 1.333| 3.000| 0.727|  0.824|  0.583|
|BadTeams |    16.325| 15.25| 9.083| 2.417| 3.083| 0.583| 2.417| 1.667| 0.766|  0.750|  0.528

Just a simple showcase, his production tanks against top 20 teams (current rank based on KenPom, not rank at time of play). "Bad teams" are any teams rank > 50. Gonzaga has a lot of bottom feeders.

Chet's play does not instill confidence in me. Let alone his ability to translate with his frame. Here is a plot of basically the same data, he struggles against better competition. It is difficult for me to justify drafting him #1 based on his play against top P5 teams.



Game Score (GmSc) is an imperfect metric, but it serves as a reasonable aggregate summary of counting stats much like PER in this case.

Where do you get these plots?

I'd like to see them for Jabari, Ivey, Paolo, Davis

I imagine it's normal to have less counting stats against good teams. I'd be interested in scoring efficiency and rebounding % numbers though

[CptCrunch]

My biggest question mark when it comes to Chet is can he do these things against NBA size, strength, and athleticism.

Its one thing to put up these kinds of numbers against San Diego. Its when he has gone up against the Texas, Duke, UCLA, and Alabama. Its not nearly the same kind of level of impact. Dont get me wrong Im not saying he is all bad in those games he played good in most of them. And I think a lot of people including myself have the question, what happens when he takes that next step of quality of opposition. Then the other question is, how long until he can put good weight on, also how much good weight can he put on with his frame.

Also to be clear, this isnt me saying he shouldn't be a lock for a top 5 pick. I definitely think he is. Just pointing out why there are some questions with him and why sadly the vast majority of WCC games wont give us a better answer to these questions. Because of just the lack of size and athleticism in that conference and that is the biggest question with Chet. Can he show the high level of offensive versatility and hold his own in the paint against legit big men with size and athleticism.

Code: Select all

|Rank     | GameScore|   PTS|   TRB|   AST|   BLK|   STL|   TOV|    PF| FTPct| Pct2Pt| Pct3Pt|
|:--------|---------:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|-----:|------:|------:|
|Top20    |     8.920|  9.60| 8.000| 1.000| 3.200| 0.200| 1.600| 3.000| 0.636|  0.696|  0.214|
|Top50    |    19.800| 19.00| 9.333| 1.333| 4.333| 0.667| 1.333| 3.000| 0.727|  0.824|  0.583|
|BadTeams |    16.325| 15.25| 9.083| 2.417| 3.083| 0.583| 2.417| 1.667| 0.766|  0.750|  0.528

Just a simple showcase, his production tanks against top 20 teams (current rank based on KenPom, not rank at time of play). "Bad teams" are any teams rank > 50. Gonzaga has a lot of bottom feeders.

Chet's play does not instill confidence in me. Let alone his ability to translate with his frame. Here is a plot of basically the same data, he struggles against better competition. It is difficult for me to justify drafting him #1 based on his play against top P5 teams.



Game Score (GmSc) is an imperfect metric, but it serves as a reasonable aggregate summary of counting stats much like PER in this case.

Where do you get these plots?

I'd like to see them for Jabari, Ivey, Paolo, Davis

I imagine it's normal to have less counting stats against good teams. I'd be interested in scoring efficiency and rebounding % numbers though

I wrote some code, but I deleted the code unfortunately. I might put up a thread with the same type of data, and and some other interesting plots for Paolo, Chet, Jabari and Ivey later (have to write generalized code). Davis is not a top 10 talent imo.

[Madhouse]

Jaden Ivey looks really good but I don't love the fit on many teams high up in the lottery.

Best fit right now is Detroit imo.

Chet on the other hand fits basically every team.

I think whoever has the first pick will have a hard time passing up Chet when the draft rolls around.

[Duke4life831]

AJ flat out dominating UNC so far. Dude is scoring from all over the court

[The Moose]

Jaden Ivey looks really good but I don't love the fit on many teams high up in the lottery.

Best fit right now is Detroit imo.

Chet on the other hand fits basically every team.

I think whoever has the first pick will have a hard time passing up Chet when the draft rolls around.

you like Ivey on the Pistons? I dont see the fit personally, I think Ivey at his best will need the ball in his hands, and he isn't likely to be the primary handler next to Cade. I'm not sure Ivey in an off ball role maximises his potential

[Madhouse]

Jaden Ivey looks really good but I don't love the fit on many teams high up in the lottery.

Best fit right now is Detroit imo.

Chet on the other hand fits basically every team.

I think whoever has the first pick will have a hard time passing up Chet when the draft rolls around.

you like Ivey on the Pistons? I dont see the fit personally, I think Ivey at his best will need the ball in his hands, and he isn't likely to be the primary handler next to Cade. I'm not sure Ivey in an off ball role maximises his potential

Not optimal but he is a great 3 point shooter. Don't see it with all the guards in Orlando, Houston just drafted Green, OKC has SGA and Giddey

[Duke4life831]

Trevor Keels is Dort who thinks he's James Harden

[The Moose]

Jaden Ivey looks really good but I don't love the fit on many teams high up in the lottery.

Best fit right now is Detroit imo.

Chet on the other hand fits basically every team.

I think whoever has the first pick will have a hard time passing up Chet when the draft rolls around.

you like Ivey on the Pistons? I dont see the fit personally, I think Ivey at his best will need the ball in his hands, and he isn't likely to be the primary handler next to Cade. I'm not sure Ivey in an off ball role maximises his potential

Not optimal but he is a great 3 point shooter. Don't see it with all the guards in Orlando, Houston just drafted Green, OKC has SGA and Giddey

I think its the Pacers, especially if they end up trading LeVert

[Coeur]

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Mobley
Cade

Jabari
Green
Paolo
Suggs
Chet

Ivey

Paolo, Chet, Mobley
—-
Jabari, Ivey, Cade
——-
Green, Suggs
———

[MemphisX]

Y'all really down on Green and Suggs based on rookie seasons. Did we not learn anything from Garland?

[The Moose]

Read on Twitter

Mobley
Cade

Jabari
Green
Paolo
Suggs
Chet

Ivey

Cade
Mobley

Jabari
Chet
Green
Paolo

Ivey
Suggs