2022 NBA Draft

[clyde21]

What's your take on Dalen Terry? Part of me is intrigued by his glue-guy potential, and part of me wonders if his problematic scoring game might be too much to overcome at the next level.

had the same take earlier in the thread, but wouldn't mind him as a late 1st flyer

[DCasey91]

So Adrian Griffin Jr lock top 5 yes yes. Butler with a jump shot anyone?

In the NBA he’ll 100% get a facilitating role to boot. All Star if I’ve ever see one

And yes Chet should go number 1#. The risk is worth it as I don’t see a surefire generational auto talent.

Smith JR isn’t the full scope and isn’t Giannis freak athleticism.

[NYPiston]

I wont lie Im starting to write in Paolo as my #1 with a more and more permanent ink.

Same here. I like his game more than some of you guys do but he's a lot closer to his ceiling than just about everybody projected to go top 5-7 IMO so I'd probably bank on upside if I won the lottery. Johnny Davis is another guy where I don't see a ton of growth left in his game but in the same token, is a good bet to be a pretty high level NBA scorer.

[GSWFan1994]

not fud against Paolo or Chet, but if Jabari doesn't go #1 some GM is overthinking it.

Do you agree with my comp of Jabari that he's an ultra rich mans' Boris Diaw or am I way off?

I don't. Much different players.

Diaw was very athletic in his early career, and a very good passer as well. Couldn't shoot a lick.

Jabari, IMO, is a mix of Durant and Aldridge's playstyles.

[jman3134]

BYU is pretty tiny. Lohner is the biggest guy that gets consistent minutes and he's a 6'7 guy who was a perimeter player in high school. Traore is a strong dude, but he's 6'6 at best.

And that's the thing, I don't think anyone questions what Chet can do against players like that. The question is how much of his game translates against guys with NBA front court size and athleticism.

The WCC year in and year out, tends to be a small perimeter oriented conference.

Shocked you are right on Traore. He plays much bigger than his size. Still is quite a force inside.

St Mary's has a couple of 6'10 guys. Point being, it really isn't the conference. The NBA is always going to be a question mark because of its collection of unicorn bigs.

The thing Im trying to say is, the biggest question mark is how much does Chet's game translate against NBA size and athleticism. Its very rare for Chet to go up against legit size in the WCC. Most games he is going against teams like BYU and stuff.

Now flip that to say guys like Paolo and Jabari. Ill go with Paolo because its easier to go off the top of my head, but all the stuff I say for Paolo can be said for Jabari (probably even more so for Jabari because the SEC is a stronger conference overall this year).

Like Paolo may not be going up against future pro big men every night. But he is seeing guys like an Armando Bacot (UNC), Malik Williams (Lou), PJ Hall (Clem), Swider and Edwards (Syr), the never ending list of 6'9+ bigs FSU throws out and so on. Again not saying these are all future NBA bigs, but he's seeing legit size every game pretty much and most of them were top 100 recruits coming out of high school. Again same goes for Jabari, game in game out they're seeing legit size in front courts and/or legit big athletic wings. For instance Paolo against UNC, he say Bacot (6'10 legit big), Manek (6'9 5th year forward), then a 6'7 Leaky Black who is a great athlete for a big wing.

And what Im saying is this is what we miss with Chet in the WCC. And to be crystal clear, this isnt me saying Chet is no good and not worth a top pick. I dont see how Chet cant be a top 5 pick. All Im saying is that is the big question mark with Chet. We know he has the skills and can show them off against physical lower tier players. Can he be that versatile guy against legit size. That is his question mark. Just like I think Paolo's legit question mark is can he be an impactful defender. And I doubt we can get that question answered prior the the draft because he gets to play alongside an elite big in Mark Williams.

Forgot to respond to this. It is a good post. Your argument is certainly valid, but I see things a bit differently on Chet. I actually agree that the question mark is how Chet's game translates against NBA size and athleticism. However, I do not believe that this impact is going to be captured at the college level - that's my entire point.

The reason I believe your argument is off is because you are analyzing it from the traditional position standpoint, and the entire point is that Holmgren bucks the curve on that model. Whether Chet is defending against 6'6 250 lb Traore or 6'10 Armando Bacot, he is going to struggle in a traditional post role. You can iso him in the post and even if he puts on 30+ lbs, he is going to be destroyed by skilled bigs like Joel Embiid, who is 7'0 and 280 lbs (so still a tier up from what he is facing in addition to incredibly more skill). Whether or not Traore at 6'6 or Bacot at 6'10 can seal him down low is pretty much irrelevant because he is currently a featherweight who can be easily sealed and supplanted from his post position. Either one of those guys is strong enough to exploit his fatal flaw. He isn't going to be adding 30 lbs during the season, so whether he can matchup against bigger players in the post or faces more skilled posts night to night is kind of a moot point.

The reason Chet is an elite prospect is because of his skillset on the perimeter. How many 7 footers are going to stretch your D and hit 46% from 3? This will draw the bigs out of the paint and create clear driving lanes offensively. So the idea is whatever he lacks in one on one post defense, he will more than make up for with his ability to improve floor spacing on O. If I am an NBA team, I do not want Chet trying to seal his man at the NBA level for his first few years in the league. He can rely on fadeaway jumpers because he is highly skilled or dribble around his man. His mobility and handle for a 7 footer is the draw.

Bacot or Traore would not be able to handle Chet in space out on the perimeter either. In the college game, he is forced into a more defined role as a traditional big, but the NBA guys will use him in a more versatile way with better floor spacing.

Am I certain that he will be the best player in this draft class? No, but I think he has a pretty safe floor as a role player 3 pt shooter (even if he is a nightmare on D) who draws bigs out of the paint. I also don't think he will be a nightmare on D, as he has shown an ability to help and switch on the perimeter.

Paolo on the other hand is a hybrid player with the strength profile of someone in the NBA already. How much more strength is he going to gain? Or is there a cap on this? Paolo is not particularly effective guarding on the perimeter. His three point shot is a question mark at the college level and will thus be at the pro level. He can certainly improve in this respect, but Chet is already ahead of him in this capacity. What is Paolo bringing to the table defensively? With Mark Williams there, is he defending Bacot and other top bigs? (I genuinely didn't notice this when I saw him but wasn't paying attention to this aspect as much, thinking he defended more out on the perimeter) If he is, will this be his role in the NBA? I somehow can't imagine Paolo having much success against an elite skilled big like Embiid and his perimeter D just isn't great imo because of his limited agility.

Stronger players like Paolo are always going to show better at the college level because of the combination of physical development and skill level. Did he just peak early? He certainly can improve as a three point shooter, but I think there is probably a strength advantage cap. And 6'10 at the college level is much different than 6'10 at the pro level, where you have these unicorn skilled 7 footers.

[azcatz11]

What's your take on Dalen Terry? Part of me is intrigued by his glue-guy potential, and part of me wonders if his problematic scoring game might be too much to overcome at the next level.

had the same take earlier in the thread, but wouldn't mind him as a late 1st flyer

Wow - you are high on him. I honestly didn't think he was an NBA player. He reminds me of a worse Ronda Hollis Jefferson but he plays with better intensity and has way more grit.

I think his shot is beyond broken. He def is the glue guy for this AZ team though

[clyde21]

What's your take on Dalen Terry? Part of me is intrigued by his glue-guy potential, and part of me wonders if his problematic scoring game might be too much to overcome at the next level.

had the same take earlier in the thread, but wouldn't mind him as a late 1st flyer

Wow - you are high on him. I honestly didn't think he was an NBA player. He reminds me of a worse Ronda Hollis Jefferson but he plays with better intensity and has way more grit.

I think his shot is beyond broken. He def is the glue guy for this AZ team though

the scoring/shooting is def a problem, you're taking him hoping he develops it to a passable level at some point, but he's got some nice utility overall that I think would be intriguing enough tail end of R1/beginning of R2 depending on who else is avaialble

[Duke4life831]

Honest question

Walker Kessler vs Jalen Duren?

[MemphisX]

Honest question

Walker Kessler vs Jalen Duren?

Kessler and it is not close for me.

[Duke4life831]

Honest question

Walker Kessler vs Jalen Duren?

Kessler and it is not close for me.

His foot speed worries me, I think he may have some trouble trying to defend a NBA PnR. But ya not really sure there is a single thing I would give Duren the edge in, either than age and athleticism. Kessler isnt just the better rim protector, but he is the far superior defender. He understands rotations and positioning so much better than Duren. Rebounding its also a massive advantage for Kessler. Kessler's jumper isnt the most used thing for him at the moment, but the form is solid. Its a slow set shot, but there isnt anything broken with it.

[Duke4life831]

To piggy back on my Kessler vs Duren question. Just a curious question, what are everyone's top centers in this class. Im talking about the guys that are strict centers. So no guys like Paolo or Jabari who you might see being 4s with some small ball 5s. Im talking position locked 5s. The Duren's, the Kessler's, the Williams and so on.

1. Mark Williams
2. Kessler
3. Tshiebwe
4. Duren

Its a toss up for me between Williams and Kessler. Similar rebounders, Kessler is the more overall solid defender, while I like Mark's potential in the NBA better because he moves his feet a lot better. Kessler is a little further along with his jumper, but I like Mark's potential there, he is a pretty good FT shooter and has good form and has been hitting his 15-18ft jumper pretty regularly now. It's really close between those two for me.

Then when it comes to Tshiebwe and Duren. I kind of just feel like Tshiebwe is what people hope Duren can become. Just a physical beast that knows how to use his physical advantages. That's Tshiebwe. Again I kind of look at Duren thinking, damn if he can put it together he can be Tshiebwe in a few years. I might as well just take Tshiebwe then.

[MemphisX]

To piggy back on my Kessler vs Duren question. Just a curious question, what are everyone's top centers in this class. Im talking about the guys that are strict centers. So no guys like Paolo or Jabari who you might see being 4s with some small ball 5s. Im talking position locked 5s. The Duren's, the Kessler's, the Williams and so on.

1. Mark Williams
2. Kessler
3. Tshiebwe
4. Duren

Its a toss up for me between Williams and Kessler. Similar rebounders, Kessler is the more overall solid defender, while I like Mark's potential in the NBA better because he moves his feet a lot better. Kessler is a little further along with his jumper, but I like Mark's potential there, he is a pretty good FT shooter and has good form and has been hitting his 15-18ft jumper pretty regularly now. It's really close between those two for me.

Then when it comes to Tshiebwe and Duren. I kind of just feel like Tshiebwe is what people hope Duren can become. Just a physical beast that knows how to use his physical advantages. That's Tshiebwe. Again I kind of look at Duren thinking, damn if he can put it together he can be Tshiebwe in a few years. I might as well just take Tshiebwe then.

My order of preference:

1. Kessler
2. Duren
3. Jaylin Williams
4. Mark Williams
5. Kamagate
6. Edey
7. Koloko
8. Robinson
9. Tshiebwe

Tshiebwe and Duren are just completely different level of prospects IMO.

I think Kessler is also a bit better than Mark Williams at almost everything. I like that both are learning to play next to a dynamic PF. Should help their transitions to the NBA. But Kessler is probably one of the prospects that I am higher on than almost everyone.

My sneaky pick is Jaylin Williams. I really want to see what he measures though.

[The-Power]

Do you already have favorite destinations for (some of) the top picks?

I recently thought of where Ivey would fit and I think he'd be great next to Cade in Detroit and now Haliburton in Indiana. Both of them are heady playmakers who could benefit from an elite athlete that pressures the rim off the dribble and also cuts well, and they provide reliable perimeter shooting that is still a question mark for Ivey.

I think Chet would look really good in Orlando on both ends of the floor (starting in place of Bamba). Maybe also in Houston paired with Sengün and their young Guards? I guess it depends if you are comfortable with Chet out on the perimeter more and believe Sengün can check the stronger Centers. Assuming Wood is gone, of course.

If you believe in Paolo's shooting, he could fit well in OKC who have their Guard rotation locked up barring a major trade. Spurs could also be a solid option (for both Chet and Banchero, probably). Or maybe Portland who have to fill their hole at PF (one way or the other, whether they retool around Lillard (and Nurkic) or fully rebuild around Simons plus their draft pick(s)).

For Jabari it's similar to Paolo. He'd also fit very in OKC who need shooting and a PF. Portland might need everything if they decide to sell more but as currently constructed, they could really use a PF who can be a secondary scoring option pretty quickly. Detroit also really needs a player like him if they create space by moving Grant (as they should) – they'll just have to pick up a low-usage Center that rebounds and protects the rim to replace Stewart in the starting line-up to play 20 MPG and would immediately look like a much better team.

[SelfishPlayer]

not fud against Paolo or Chet, but if Jabari doesn't go #1 some GM is overthinking it.

Do you agree with my comp of Jabari that he's an ultra rich mans' Boris Diaw or am I way off?

I don't. Much different players.

Diaw was very athletic in his early career, and a very good passer as well. Couldn't shoot a lick.

Jabari, IMO, is a mix of Durant and Aldridge's playstyles.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

[XTC]

not fud against Paolo or Chet, but if Jabari doesn't go #1 some GM is overthinking it.

Do you agree with my comp of Jabari that he's an ultra rich mans' Boris Diaw or am I way off?

I don't. Much different players.

Diaw was very athletic in his early career, and a very good passer as well. Couldn't shoot a lick.

Jabari, IMO, is a mix of Durant and Aldridge's playstyles.

Jabari really does remind me of Rashard Lewis when he was in Seattle. Anyone else see it, or is it just me?

[SeattleJazzFan]

Do you agree with my comp of Jabari that he's an ultra rich mans' Boris Diaw or am I way off?

I don't. Much different players.

Diaw was very athletic in his early career, and a very good passer as well. Couldn't shoot a lick.

Jabari, IMO, is a mix of Durant and Aldridge's playstyles.

Jabari really does remind me of Rashard Lewis when he was in Seattle. Anyone else see it, or is it just me?

yes. it has been mentioned here and i agree. i do think jabari has more potential to get stronger and mix it up more on the offensive end rather than just shooting long range jump shots like Rashard, but for now and the way he's playing, yes - Rashard Lews all the way. but he's still very young and may very well figure it out.

[The-Power]

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Nah, they are very different players.

[rpa]

Do you already have favorite destinations for (some of) the top picks?

Bit of a homer pick, but I love the theoretically fit of Chet on the Kings where he wouldn't get forced into a big time offensive role up front and could use his basketball IQ to dominate the secondary opportunities while also focusing on defensive impact.

[SelfishPlayer]

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Nah, they are very different players.

I posted Jackson not Giannis...

[clyde21]

Do you already have favorite destinations for (some of) the top picks?

I recently thought of where Ivey would fit and I think he'd be great next to Cade in Detroit and now Haliburton in Indiana. Both of them are heady playmakers who could benefit from an elite athlete that pressures the rim off the dribble and also cuts well, and they provide reliable perimeter shooting that is still a question mark for Ivey.

I think Chet would look really good in Orlando on both ends of the floor (starting in place of Bamba). Maybe also in Houston paired with Sengün and their young Guards? I guess it depends if you are comfortable with Chet out on the perimeter more and believe Sengün can check the stronger Centers. Assuming Wood is gone, of course.

If you believe in Paolo's shooting, he could fit well in OKC who have their Guard rotation locked up barring a major trade. Spurs could also be a solid option (for both Chet and Banchero, probably). Or maybe Portland who have to fill their hole at PF (one way or the other, whether they retool around Lillard (and Nurkic) or fully rebuild around Simons plus their draft pick(s)).

For Jabari it's similar to Paolo. He'd also fit very in OKC who need shooting and a PF. Portland might need everything if they decide to sell more but as currently constructed, they could really use a PF who can be a secondary scoring option pretty quickly. Detroit also really needs a player like him if they create space by moving Grant (as they should) – they'll just have to pick up a low-usage Center that rebounds and protects the rim to replace Stewart in the starting line-up to play 20 MPG and would immediately look like a much better team.

Paolo - Detroit
Bari - San Antonio
Ivey - Indiana
Chet - Orlando