King Ken wrote:This will be an interesting draft.
I don't believe we will know the lottery till after the combine and workouts because teams will be all over the place with this class.
agreed. When I evaluate draft classes and prospects I weigh the draft process as follows:
10% pre-conference play
*it's a blank slate. Opponents don't really have game plans or scouting reports. Very little familiarity. Coaches are trying to juggle vets and freshmen and make everyone happy leaving some left out in the cold (Furphy is a great example)
25% conference play (including conference tourneys)
*we're here!!! By this time teams have scouting reports, rotations are pretty set, and programs are familiar with each other's coaches and players
25% NCAA tournament
*the biggest stage of these player's lives to this point. Mostly neutral courts. Opposing teams have a full season of tape to scout. Opponents are the best teams they'll likely have faced. Win or go home. Who has "it"
40% post tournament (combine, team workouts, interviews, measurements, etc)
*everyone they'll be competing against and playing with is a bonafide NBA prospect. We get to see how they measure up (athleticism, size, length, skills) with NBA peers. There's enough time between the end of the tournament and combine that guys can get trainers to improve their shots and physique. Interviews let's us see who the knuckleheads are. Measurements finally put to rest (to a degree) all the speculation about heights, reaches, length, verticals, etc. It's also rumor season with all scouts and decision makers focused on draft prospects in one place. Guys can completely skip college or barely play but do enough during this time to prove they should be drafted high.
So it's WAY too early to be declaring much of anything. We're like 20% into the process!
While I am not a Sarr guy. I believe he will be the one to benefit from this the most if it goes through the process.
Risacher is my #1 prospect and he better pray he ends up in SA or Memphis. He doesn't need to be in a place with high pressure.
This is a PG class but scouts will be all over the place. Workouts will decide everything.
It really is. This a very deep PG class with a little bit of everything depending on needs/preference plus a lot of depth. It wouldn't surprise me if double digit guys end up starting games from this class: Castle, Collier, Carrington, Topic, George, Sheppard, Dillingham, Kolek, Nunez, Mitchell, Boswell, Simpson, Alexander, Wagner, Proctor
Castle, Collier, and McCain will be big risers. Once projections for 3-4 years come plus the workout results, these guys will shoot up the board. At the end of the day, all three are legit NBA talents. They aren't ready yet but they are all physically impressive and athletically sound. Don't be shocked if all three end up in the top 10.
Sheppard will be someone teams have all over the place after workouts. Some will have him in the top 5, some, top 25. It just takes one team
Topic will be the big faller. Teams will see him like a less athlete, better playmaking Markelle Fultz after the issue and just not want a PG who can't shoot 3s like that. While his at the rim % is high, everyone going under could really be tough for him. While he's high on my board, if the Spurs pass on him in the top 10, I think he maybe the Cam Whitmore of this class and fall into the 20s. PHX will probably be his floor.
Is it me or does Dillingham have a lot of Brandon Jennings in his game? That kid is insanely wicked with a screen and UK don't even set good ones either. I am not sure if I'll take him in the top 5 but he's a top 10 pick for sure. He might be the only top 10 pick at PG that could start next year. Shepp, Castle, Collier, and McCain will all need to be backups for a year. Their projection is long-term. If he's mentally right and wants it BAD, he can be a guy in this league for a long time to come. When he's patient, he's insane. While I think he would be lucky if he could fall to Utah or Chicago.
SG position is fairly weak. Walter has a great prototype but he's far from reaching it right now. Furphy is very interesting and I think he's going to be SG1 when it's all said and done. Knecht and Shannon Jr. are the best SGs are a very good players but they won't get picked till late lottery to the 20s.
I disagree. While it is the weakest position of this class there's still several guys who should contribute at the next level from this group: McCain, Walter, Knecht, Sallis, McCullar, Shannon, Sheierman, Poplar, Spencer, Larsson, Cleveland, Reeves, Mintz, etc
Kevin McCullar is a risky pick. He's good but he has flaws and is 23 on draft night. Add the fact that he's 210 which is good but not great, and backup seems to be the peak with him.
SF position is Risacher then not one good player. Just upside and prayers.
Williams has the insane upside but you must bring him in. You need to check his growth plates, see his psyche and body comp, under what drives him and have a tremendous development plan in place. '
Holland, Buzelis, Salaun, and Klintman is all prayers and upside. You could hit but you will likely miss. At least two of these guys will be lottery picks, maybe all 4 and there is a chance all could bust. Buzelis is the most likely one to be good at some point.
completely disagree. This is a really impressive SF class with many likely starters and role players: Holland, Risacher, Williams, Buzelis, Furphy, Ingram, Jones, Ajinca, Karaban, Tyson, Watkins, Edwards, Mgbako, Mitchell, Robinson, Stojakovic, Flowers, Dadiet, Toohey
The PF position is less promising. Filipowski and Sarr are clearly the likely locks for the top 10. Smith is a hope and a prayer, Oso is a legit NBA player who needs to land somewhere a legit vision for him, and guys like Almansa and Chomche are a Hail Mary.
again, disagree. There's several potential starters or role players at PF and neither Sarr nor Filipowski are even guys I consider traditional PFs though like the rest they'll likely play 4/5 depending on lineups: Salaun, Klintman, Ighodaro, Smith, Hall, Perrin, Ndongo, Chomche, Evans, deSilva, Holmes, Mitchell.
The C position is very strong. Clingan will be a big raiser, wouldn't be shocked if he's a top 5 pick, then you have a draft range with Edey, Missi, and Ware in the 11-24 range. All are unique. Clingan is a high-end movement kid who got some shot creation, is extremely athletic for his size, a good overall defender who specializes in the drop, but he has injury and stamina concerns.
Yep. Great center class: Sarr, Yang, Clingan, Ware, Bona, Filipowski, Ivisic, Missi, Edey
Missi is a talented prospect who's a couple of years away but could be a top-15 center in 3-4 years. Ware has a unique skill set. He's been compared to Bamba and Jarrett Allen. Edey is an excellent hooper who's ready to help a team with games right now even if it's only as a reserve.
Overall, this is a solid draft class which has been common recently. The prize of this class for me is the seniors. Also, I expect this draft will look a lot different than any of our boards. The workouts, combine, and interviews will mean more in this draft, than any previously and don't be shocked when five guys climb into the lottery that aren't on anyone's radar right now.
Good stuff!
