Joel Embiid

[Okada]

There's a lot of time left in the season and a lot is subject to change, but if things are standing like they are now come draft time, Embiid would be quite the surprise with the #1 overall pick. Again, I like Embiid a lot, but look at who he's competing against.

[Dr Positivity]

I would expect more and more Cavs like weird picks to be in play at number 1 though. Youmger guys like Hinkie and Hennigan strike me as exactly the types to say "I don't care what the media says. Our ambitious prospect ranking system says this instead". These teams plan is likely built on trying to master the draft and thinking it through better than the current way which produces so many misfires.

Embiid is also getting legit no 1 buzz anyways. Not a huge stretch. The Cavs taking Jordan Adams 1st because of moneyball, now that would be a surprise!

[Tave]

Drummond is more Tyson Chandler than prime Dwight right now IMO, so I would argue with ManualRam he is not quite a superstar

Tyson Chandler has a ring. Dwight doesn't.

Andre Drummond is like a bigger Ben Wallace, who also has a ring.

He may not fit the definition of a superstar but you can certainly win a ring with him as a core piece.

This. No one would ever mistake Ben Wallace for a superstar. Core piece center on a team? Sure. But a superstar? Not even close. To do that you have to be dominate on both ends not just one.

The fact that some people want to call 13.3 ppg and 12.9 rpg on the cusp of superstar for a C and the fact that its even an argument shows how far the C position has fallen. Dwight Howard used to just be an average center in the NBA now he's the standard.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using RealGM Forums mobile app

Drummond is not at Ben Wallace's level yet. His rebounding numbers look similar, but he doesn't impact the game like Big Ben. Not even close. Wallace was a one-man elite defense during his 3-4 year prime.

[Gilles]

As a much older second-year player all Ben Wallace was known for was annoying Webber and Howard with his physicality. Give Drummond some time.

[CBB_Fan]

I would expect more and more Cavs like weird picks to be in play at number 1 though. Youmger guys like Hinkie and Hennigan strike me as exactly the types to say "I don't care what the media says. Our ambitious prospect ranking system says this instead". These teams plan is likely built on trying to master the draft and thinking it through better than the current way which produces so many misfires.

Embiid is also getting legit no 1 buzz anyways. Not a huge stretch. The Cavs taking Jordan Adams 1st because of moneyball, now that would be a surprise!

Well, right now the Cavaliers are in 9th place in the tankathon, with a 1.7% chance of going #1 and a 6.1% chance at a top 3 spot. When I look at the top contenders:

1. Utah: Pick Parker for the hometown love
2. Milwaukee: Pick Wiggins, as he could play SG or SF (have a okay frontcourt)
3. Denver (from NY): Pick Randle, he's the best fit for a "tough" mindset system
5. Sacramento: Pick Parker, he's not from Kansas and is can both shoot and play SF
6. Philadelphia: Pick Wiggins, they need help everywhere
7. Celtics (from Brooklyn/Atlanta): Pick Parker, he fits best in the Celtics system and Ainge
8. Toronto: Pick Wiggins for the home-nation love
9. Cleveland: Pick Embiid, because why not?
10. Philadelphia (from New Orleans): Pick Embiid (assuming this is their second pick), they need the best prospects and won't be good immediately
11. LA Lakers: Pick Wiggins for Kobe comparisons
12. Minnesota: Pick Wiggins for defense or Parker for shooting
13. Memphis: Probably pick Parker to help out their shooting.
14. Utah (from Golden State): I guess Wiggins, if something horrible happens to GS and they get two top picks.
9.

[Jazzfan12]

Teams like the 76ers that greatly value advanced stats will probably shy away from Wiggins and Randle due to their bad steal numbers, so Embiid could come into play there (though I think the 76ers specifically would take Parker due to already having Noel).

[sikma42]

Teams like the 76ers that greatly value advanced stats will probably shy away from Wiggins and Randle due to their bad steal numbers, so Embiid could come into play there (though I think the 76ers specifically would take Parker due to already having Noel).

they would be silly to so in Wiggins case. Im not even gonna look at his numbers but I'll tell you that teams are often scared to run there offense to his side of the floor due to his off ball defense.

[CBB_Fan]

Teams like the 76ers that greatly value advanced stats will probably shy away from Wiggins and Randle due to their bad steal numbers, so Embiid could come into play there (though I think the 76ers specifically would take Parker due to already having Noel).

While I do think that SPG is probably the best raw individual college stat for determining a prospect's potential, I don't think it really works well in this case. Wiggins is still averaging 1.2 SPG and 0.8 BPG, but even with Parker getting better numbers (1.4 SPG, 2.0 BPG) it is important to take situation into account. Parker is playing as the biggest player on the court for Duke, and most of his stats are coming off of help defense situations. He isn't getting defensive competition from his teammates, and he's getting the opportunity to take the ball away from bigger (and supposedly more clumsy) players.

Wiggins is the third biggest player for KU, and he is playing almost exclusively in man to man defenses against the best player on the opposing court, with little help. When Wiggins gets a steal, it is often on a guard or SF in a one on one situation, comparable to what he'll see in the NBA, whereas Parker is getting his steals either by taking the ball away from a bigger player or by helping out on defense. It should also be mentioned that Parker isn't really competing against his own team for rebounds or blocks like Wiggins is when he plays at SF with Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, or Joel Embiid on the court.

Taking stats into context is what the next evolution of statistical analysis is all about. NBA teams have the software and tools to tell not only the basic stats of a player, but how they got them (ie, from postups, off the drive, as a help defender, as the PF, in the paint, etc.). While fans have access to some tools for NBA teams, we don't really have those tools to evaluate college players.

The reason why NBA scouts like Wiggins as a defender more than Parker despite Parker's raw stats is that they evaluate game situations, not just the outcomes. Usually they do this by eye at the game and then use some tool to get a numeric analysis later. Wiggins grades out as a very good, and versatile man defender, whereas Parker projects as a good help or team defender but a worse defender in one on one situations.

[Okada]

Don't know what else to say. If Embiid went 1st the way things are sitting right now, it would be a big surprise, it's just not even disputable. I never said it'd be a bad pick or a pick that didn't make sense, it would just be unexpected mainly because of the Wiggins/Parker/Randle group. And again, that's subject to change based on how Embiid plays from now anyways, but unless there's a serious increase in production then he's a longshot for the 1st pick.

[TheSuzerain]

Anybody with at least one functioning eye would prefer Wiggins to Jabari defensively.

[TucsonClip]

Teams like the 76ers that greatly value advanced stats will probably shy away from Wiggins and Randle due to their bad steal numbers, so Embiid could come into play there (though I think the 76ers specifically would take Parker due to already having Noel).

While I do think that SPG is probably the best raw individual college stat for determining a prospect's potential, I don't think it really works well in this case. Wiggins is still averaging 1.2 SPG and 0.8 BPG, but even with Parker getting better numbers (1.4 SPG, 2.0 BPG) it is important to take situation into account. Parker is playing as the biggest player on the court for Duke, and most of his stats are coming off of help defense situations. He isn't getting defensive competition from his teammates, and he's getting the opportunity to take the ball away from bigger (and supposedly more clumsy) players.

Wiggins is the third biggest player for KU, and he is playing almost exclusively in man to man defenses against the best player on the opposing court, with little help. When Wiggins gets a steal, it is often on a guard or SF in a one on one situation, comparable to what he'll see in the NBA, whereas Parker is getting his steals either by taking the ball away from a bigger player or by helping out on defense. It should also be mentioned that Parker isn't really competing against his own team for rebounds or blocks like Wiggins is when he plays at SF with Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, or Joel Embiid on the court.

Taking stats into context is what the next evolution of statistical analysis is all about. NBA teams have the software and tools to tell not only the basic stats of a player, but how they got them (ie, from postups, off the drive, as a help defender, as the PF, in the paint, etc.). While fans have access to some tools for NBA teams, we don't really have those tools to evaluate college players.

The reason why NBA scouts like Wiggins as a defender more than Parker despite Parker's raw stats is that they evaluate game situations, not just the outcomes. Usually they do this by eye at the game and then use some tool to get a numeric analysis later. Wiggins grades out as a very good, and versatile man defender, whereas Parker projects as a good help or team defender but a worse defender in one on one situations.

Good post, and I couldnt have said it any better. I no longer have access, but previously had access to synergy at all levels and the detail that is available, both statistically and via breakdown replays, is quite amazing.

That said, I agree about the Wiggins/Parker breakdown. Look what happened when Parker not only had to play against Arizona's NBA wings/forwards (Ashley, Gordon, Hollis-Jefferson), but when he had to defend them. Hes playing out of position and is definitely benefiting statistically from doing so.

To me, Wiggins looks like the next coming of Paul George. If he ever reaches where George is right now? Who knows. However, much like George at Fresno, the concerns were about his motor, his ability to take over games and developing a more consistent shot. He looked the part of an elite defender, but his motor needed to match his athleticism and length. Tell me thats not the scouting report on Wiggins right now.

Embiid just looks so fluid and athletic, but is so raw. His upside is through the roof on both sides of the floor. Based on upside Wiggins and Embiid have to be 1 and 2.

[510TWSS]

I've only watched that highlight of Embiid against Iona. Looks like he could be a player. I think it's tough to place even a "raw Hakeem" comparison on him. A lot of players probably have looked like a raw Hakeem but didn't end up being prime Hakeem.

I hope he stays in school and develops his game. I'd like to see him add some go to post moves and counter moves. Also can't hurt to work on defense.

[Big_C_KU]

If you have the chance and didn't watch the KU-NM watch the 2nd half of it. Embiid showed why he's gonna be consideration for the #1 pick. Just dominated a very good C.

On the other hand wasn't Wiggins' best game. He needs to play stronger when he attacks the rim. Tries to go around instead of going through the defender.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[CBB_Fan]

If you have the chance and didn't watch the KU-NM watch the 2nd half of it. Embiid showed why he's gonna be consideration for the #1 pick. Just dominated a very good C.

On the other hand wasn't Wiggins' best game. He needs to play stronger when he attacks the rim. Tries to go around instead of going through the defender.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using RealGM Forums mobile app

For those wanted to put stats to this post, Embiid had 16 second half points with no missed shots. His totals for the game were 18 points (5-6 FG, 8-10 FT), 6 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 3 steals in just a little over 20 minutes. Hyper efficient on offense (again, 18 PTs on 6 shots), good on defense.

[sikma42]

If you have the chance and didn't watch the KU-NM watch the 2nd half of it. Embiid showed why he's gonna be consideration for the #1 pick. Just dominated a very good C.

On the other hand wasn't Wiggins' best game. He needs to play stronger when he attacks the rim. Tries to go around instead of going through the defender.

Sent from my SGH-T989 using RealGM Forums mobile app

Literally jumped out my seat on one of those post moves. I like everything about this kid from his development to his demeanor.


Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums mobile app

[breakchains]

Embiid is my #1 prospect.

[JDizzel3000]

This kid is unbelievable ..I mean he looks smooth in and out of his post moves and his touch around the bucket is buttery soft ... If I'm a gm (and of course this is premature) this kid is right there as far as being in my #1 pick conversation

[LloydFree]

Embiid is my #1 prospect.

This

[peachbucket]

He's my clear #1 right now as well…I have seen enough.

[MojoPharoah]

BTW, from many accounts, the Sixers do love Embiid. So take that for what its worth.