Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#161 » by JMAC3 » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:33 pm

DOT wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:I understand how usage works. I am saying in games where Hali was out other guys usage gets a bump and is inflated. In games where Haliburton plays the other guys usage would be lower. So yes him missing 1/3 of the year affects the way numbers read on paper.

That's literally not how it works though lol

What it means is, the other guys would have a slightly higher usage due to Haliburton missing time

It wouldn't affect Haliburton's usage at all.


? this is exactly what I just said my guy.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#162 » by Colbinii » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:35 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Haliburton was the leading scorer, played nearly every min every game he played. The usage stuff is probably mostly out of whack because Haliburton missed 1/3 of the year and guys got expanded roles while he was out.


That isn't how USG% works. It only looks at the time you are on the court. Haliburton's Usage being around 20% indicates he wasn't running everything for Iowa State. The film also indicates this--2020 was the first year I actually spent real, measurable time on prospects and the thought of Haliburton was always he would be a secondary option at the NBA level.



You are really getting fixated on trying to make the connection from Reed to Haliburton. Go for it, but I would bet real dollars Reed is a lot closer to Payton Pritchard 4 years into his NBA career than All NBA candidate Tyrese Haliburton.

I understand how usage works. I am saying in games where Hali was out other guys usage gets a bump and is inflated. In games where Haliburton plays the other guys usage would be lower. So yes him missing 1/3 of the year affects the way numbers read on paper.

I am seeing people try to connect Reed to Hali, Nash, Curry etc... I am allowed to think those comparisons are laughably bad.

Can't wait for him to be Jevon Carter and everyone pat themselves on the back because he is a "useful" rotation player and that is never a bad pick bs


I am comparing them as prospects, not NBA players.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#163 » by The-Power » Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:53 am

Colbinii wrote:I am comparing them as prospects, not NBA players.

Yep, that's the key here. Nobody expects Sheppard to be the next Haliburton. But nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton either. Certainly not the person trying to ridicule the comparison who, among others, wrote the following back in 2020:

JMAC3 wrote:Watching him play, it seems like gets the most out of his abilities. I just have a hard time seeing him being an NBA starter at this point, not sure exactly what it is... he reminds me of Delon Wright or Monte Morris- a good backup.

If he does become a starter I could see him being a Jeff Teague or Spencer Dinwiddie level player, but I don’t see a high ceiling.

JMAC3 wrote:Seems like somebody the Bulls draft and then realize he isn’t much better than Tomas Satoransky.


The idea that you can't even compare Sheppard and Haliburton as prospects coming out of college is pretty asinine and strictly based on hindsight. Just because Haliburton reached his 99th percentile outcome doesn't mean that from now on we cannot compare him to similar college players anymore – as long as we're careful to not expect comparable players to reach their 99th percentile outcome, too (but that obviously goes for all prospects).
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#164 » by eminence » Fri Jan 19, 2024 2:22 pm

I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#165 » by The-Power » Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:36 pm

eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.

Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#166 » by JMAC3 » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:00 pm

The-Power wrote:
eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.

Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.


I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#167 » by eminence » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:04 pm

The-Power wrote:
eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.

Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.


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Jan 5, 2020 (EvanZ's big board thread)

eminence wrote:Haliburton QB1


Believe I finished with him #2 on my board to Okongwu.

Anywho, I like both of the guys in this thread pretty well. Haven't dived deep this season at all, but surface level impressions would have them both in the mid to later lotto.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#168 » by The-Power » Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:09 pm

JMAC3 wrote:I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.

He doesn't have their usage but I absolutely believe that Sheppard is the best player of the bunch already in terms of impact. He doesn't have their usage but I don't believe that's because they are better offensive players. It's just that Sheppard game is not built on high-volume scoring (he contributes in other ways) and he's willing to defer (to a fault). I expect him to start out as a low-volume scorer in the NBA, too. And then we'll see if and when he can handle a higher usage.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#169 » by Hal14 » Sat Jan 20, 2024 1:55 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
The-Power wrote:
eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.

Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.


I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.

Among those 4 guards, Sheppard ranks:

-1st in Win Shares Per 40 Mins
-1st in BPM (his BPM is 2x higher than the others)
-1st in offensive rating
-1st in defensive rating
-1st in rebounding %
-1st in blocks %
-1st in steals %
-1st in FTr
-1st in TS%
-2nd in FT% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in 2 FG% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in assist % (only behind Dillingham, who has a WAY higher usage than Sheppard. Rob has 30% assist but on a 30% usage. Sheppard gives you more bang for your buck, a much higher assist to usage ratio, with 23% assist on a 16% usage

-Tied for 3rd in points per 40 mins, despite the fact that he is 4th in usage, with a much lower usage than the others. This means he is able to do more with less touches. That's a good thing. I don't think a player is better if they are super ball dominant, need the ball in the hands a ton, need to have WAY higher usage than someone else in order to barely have more production than them. Look, none of these guys are going to be 1st or even 2nd options on an NBA team. Wouldn't you rather draft the guy who doesn't need the ball as much, can play better alongside star players, is a more effective off-ball player?

While Sheppard has less points per 40 mins than the Rob, Rob has basically DOUBLE the usage. So Rob needs basically double the touches to get his points which means Sheppard is much more efficient (as evidenced by his much higher TS%). Sheppard has lower points per 40 mins than Reeves but he's like 4 yrs younger than Reeves. Sheppard has basically the same exact points per 40 as Wagner.

Sheppard has been the better player than the other guards by a mile.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#170 » by Colbinii » Sat Jan 20, 2024 2:21 pm

Is Dillingham a better prospect than Sexton was? That's who he reminds me of.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#171 » by FarBeyondDriven » Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:23 pm

Colbinii wrote:Is Dillingham a better prospect than Sexton was? That's who he reminds me of.


that's who I compared him too recently as well. I like Dillingham more because at least he can pest ball handlers up the court and has quick hands unlike Sexton. Dillingham is very sloppy with the ball at times due to being too fast and out of control (that can be worked on though) but he's a more natural playmaker (even suggesting he could be a true point guard) than Sexton. Sexton is the worst type of player imho so it's not a ringing endorsement that Dillingham reminds me of him but he's got a chance to be more than what Sexton and that type of player is. If Sexton and Cam Thomas can contribute Dillingham should as well but with more than just scoring.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#172 » by CptCrunch » Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:34 pm

Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
The-Power wrote:Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.


I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.

Among those 4 guards, Sheppard ranks:

-1st in Win Shares Per 40 Mins
-1st in BPM (his BPM is 2x higher than the others)
-1st in offensive rating
-1st in defensive rating
-1st in rebounding %
-1st in blocks %
-1st in steals %
-1st in FTr
-1st in TS%
-2nd in FT% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in 2 FG% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in assist % (only behind Dillingham, who has a WAY higher usage than Sheppard. Rob has 30% assist but on a 30% usage. Sheppard gives you more bang for your buck, a much higher assist to usage ratio, with 23% assist on a 16% usage

-Tied for 3rd in points per 40 mins, despite the fact that he is 4th in usage, with a much lower usage than the others. This means he is able to do more with less touches. That's a good thing. I don't think a player is better if they are super ball dominant, need the ball in the hands a ton, need to have WAY higher usage than someone else in order to barely have more production than them. Look, none of these guys are going to be 1st or even 2nd options on an NBA team. Wouldn't you rather draft the guy who doesn't need the ball as much, can play better alongside star players, is a more effective off-ball player?

While Sheppard has less points per 40 mins than the Rob, Rob has basically DOUBLE the usage. So Rob needs basically double the touches to get his points which means Sheppard is much more efficient (as evidenced by his much higher TS%). Sheppard has lower points per 40 mins than Reeves but he's like 4 yrs younger than Reeves. Sheppard has basically the same exact points per 40 as Wagner.

Sheppard has been the better player than the other guards by a mile.


To add:

To understand Sheppard, don't get hung up on his play or dive too deep into his stats.

When you have a freshman in a P5 conference, playing a starting role, and consistently putting up impressive box-score stats, sometimes it's best to just ignore the usual analysis and go with it.

Stats and scouting work well for the average, the middle 95%, but in certain situations—like when you have a standout player on the edges of the norm—you just need to take a chance.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#173 » by MrBigShot » Sat Jan 20, 2024 10:50 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
The-Power wrote:
eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.

I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.

Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).

Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.

I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.


I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.


He is outshining them. He is far and away the most impactful player on the team (blows Wagner out of the water), and by far the most efficient. His raw stats don't look crazy because he takes a whopping 6.8 shot attempts a game and has a really low usage.

He has some physical limitations for sure and has had some meh games recently, but man is decision making is terrific. Def a guy I can see having a long NBA career.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#174 » by FarBeyondDriven » Sun Jan 21, 2024 11:13 am

their inability to defend is really becoming noticeable. Bad game with lots of turnovers. Sheppard is just so smart though and can shoot the lights out. It's enough to offset the defense. I'm not sure about Dillingham. Unlike Sheppard, he gets so damn sloppy and is a streakier shooter. At the end of the day they're close in talent level and mid to late first round picks.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#175 » by Pelly24 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:35 am

FarBeyondDriven wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
Pelly24 wrote:I watched it in real time, he was the best player on the court by a good margin. But Bronny's team was literally thrown together the day before, they never practices whereas reed's team had been together for a long time.

I feel like there's an "aesthetic" thing that makes people think Reed can't succeed in the NBA.

Agreed. People just think that a 6'2"/6'3" combo-guard who is white and has average-at-best athleticism *looks* like he shouldn't be a lottery pick.

Because he doesn't *look* like many other star players in the NBA right now.

To some extent, I get it. But the guy can flat out play and the stats back it up.


who are these people? Have you read people saying this? Or is this just in your head and that's what you believe they think? Sheppard not (yet or ever?) being a lottery pick for me has as much to do with his size as it does with me just feeling like there's at least 14 other NBA prospects that could be NBA starters someday or better role players than Sheppard. Why bring race into it? These same concerns exist for Dillingham and last I checked he was black.


Reed was ranked lower than Rob by consensus, even though he was incredibly dominant and ridiculously efficient in high school, he wasn't a consensus five-star prospect. Dillingham fits more of an obvious archetype than Reed, admittedly, because he's explosive and shifty and a great shooter. But I truly do think people underrated Reed his whole career because of his "appearance."
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#176 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 3:30 pm

I don't hate Sheppard, I think he can be a NBA rotation piece. I just think he is overrated when you look at the role he will likely play in the NBA. I currently see him more in the 15-20 range on draft day big board.

He has now shot the ball 2 times inside the 3pt arc over his last 5 games (since SEC play). He is still shooting the three ball lights out which should transfer to some degree, but do you really see him going to the NBA and his offensive load increase? it is typically the opposite as you go up a level.

Same with his defense, I think he is a smart defender and will likely be solid on that end. However, he is a smaller guard with likely a smaller wingspan without elite athletic traits. Do we really see him being able to guard the best offensive players in the league?

I am not shutting the door on him completely, but I need him to take the keys of this team by the end of the year. Have multiple 20+ point games in conference play where he shows a more dynamic shot profile other than shooting only 3s.

Especially with Big Z in the fold, I could see Sheppard role continuing to decrease.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#177 » by Colbinii » Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:53 pm

JMAC3 wrote:He has now shot the ball 2 times inside the 3pt arc over his last 5 games (since SEC play). He is still shooting the three ball lights out which should transfer to some degree, but do you really see him going to the NBA and his offensive load increase? it is typically the opposite as you go up a level.


Sheppard is on a team with a ton of weapons and ball-handlers. NBA teams probably don't have as many shot creators or ball handlers as Kentucky has. Dillingham/Edwards/Wagner/Reaves are all using many more possessions than Sheppard.

I guess the question becomes do you think he can increase his usage? And if you don't, what gives you pause about him increasing his usage?

FWIW, he is currently just under 17%, which is enough to make a positive offensive impact.

Remember, Usage is inversely related to efficiency. If Reed can stay a 70% TS% on 16% Usage, he could probably muster 60% TS% on 20%+ Usage, which is still efficient.

Same with his defense, I think he is a smart defender and will likely be solid on that end. However, he is a smaller guard with likely a smaller wingspan without elite athletic traits. Do we really see him being able to guard the best offensive players in the league?


No, but nobody can guard the best players in the league. SGA just torched ANT and McDaniels on Saturday night and those are two of the Top 10-15 perimeter defenders in the NBA. The players are so good now on the perimeter that it doesn't really matter if you are an All-NBA caliber defender like ANT/McDaniels, the best players will still cook you.

Can he better than Austin Reaves? Yeah, no doubt.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#178 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 5:10 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:He has now shot the ball 2 times inside the 3pt arc over his last 5 games (since SEC play). He is still shooting the three ball lights out which should transfer to some degree, but do you really see him going to the NBA and his offensive load increase? it is typically the opposite as you go up a level.


Sheppard is on a team with a ton of weapons and ball-handlers. NBA teams probably don't have as many shot creators or ball handlers as Kentucky has. Dillingham/Edwards/Wagner/Reaves are all using many more possessions than Sheppard.

I guess the question becomes do you think he can increase his usage? And if you don't, what gives you pause about him increasing his usage?

FWIW, he is currently just under 17%, which is enough to make a positive offensive impact.

Remember, Usage is inversely related to efficiency. If Reed can stay a 70% TS% on 16% Usage, he could probably muster 60% TS% on 20%+ Usage, which is still efficient.

Same with his defense, I think he is a smart defender and will likely be solid on that end. However, he is a smaller guard with likely a smaller wingspan without elite athletic traits. Do we really see him being able to guard the best offensive players in the league?


No, but nobody can guard the best players in the league. SGA just torched ANT and McDaniels on Saturday night and those are two of the Top 10-15 perimeter defenders in the NBA. The players are so good now on the perimeter that it doesn't really matter if you are an All-NBA caliber defender like ANT/McDaniels, the best players will still cook you.

Can he better than Austin Reaves? Yeah, no doubt.


I would hope he is better than Reaves on defense who is a bottom 5 defender, not really a selling point to draft him in the top 10 for me.

For me, I feel like 90% of the elite defenders in the NBA have elite physical traits with either height, length, athleticism or strength. There is a chance Reed an outlier but I would rather take the 90% odds he isn't.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#179 » by Hal14 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:18 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:He has now shot the ball 2 times inside the 3pt arc over his last 5 games (since SEC play). He is still shooting the three ball lights out which should transfer to some degree, but do you really see him going to the NBA and his offensive load increase? it is typically the opposite as you go up a level.


Sheppard is on a team with a ton of weapons and ball-handlers. NBA teams probably don't have as many shot creators or ball handlers as Kentucky has. Dillingham/Edwards/Wagner/Reaves are all using many more possessions than Sheppard.

I guess the question becomes do you think he can increase his usage? And if you don't, what gives you pause about him increasing his usage?

FWIW, he is currently just under 17%, which is enough to make a positive offensive impact.

Remember, Usage is inversely related to efficiency. If Reed can stay a 70% TS% on 16% Usage, he could probably muster 60% TS% on 20%+ Usage, which is still efficient.

Same with his defense, I think he is a smart defender and will likely be solid on that end. However, he is a smaller guard with likely a smaller wingspan without elite athletic traits. Do we really see him being able to guard the best offensive players in the league?


No, but nobody can guard the best players in the league. SGA just torched ANT and McDaniels on Saturday night and those are two of the Top 10-15 perimeter defenders in the NBA. The players are so good now on the perimeter that it doesn't really matter if you are an All-NBA caliber defender like ANT/McDaniels, the best players will still cook you.

Can he better than Austin Reaves? Yeah, no doubt.


I would hope he is better than Reaves on defense who is a bottom 5 defender, not really a selling point to draft him in the top 10 for me.

For me, I feel like 90% of the elite defenders in the NBA have elite physical traits with either height, length, athleticism or strength. There is a chance Reed an outlier but I would rather take the 90% odds he isn't.

1) what elite physical traits do these guys have?

Davion Mitchell
Avery Bradley
Alex Caruso
Derrick White
Jose Alvarado
Chris Paul
Kyle Lowry
Marcus Smart
Patrick Beverly

Even guys like Jevon Carter, Mike Conley, Deanthony Melton and Delon Wright are good defenders..what elite physical traits do they have?

2) Why does Sheppard have to be an elite defender? Can't he be just a good defender? What if he is a good defender, elite shooter with good connective passing. Can be a secondary ball handler, plays with pace, makes smart plays, makes winning plays, high IQ player, really good work ethic, excellent competitiveness. Rebounds well for a guard, causes havoc as an off ball defender (steals, blocks, deflections)

Not to mention he's only a freshman - yet he's putting up numbers we have literally never seen before by a freshman (when you combine his shooting efficiency, shooting volume, BPM, steals % and blocks % numbers) so who really knows what his ceiling is?

3) Sheppard is just a 19 yr old freshman. Who knows, maybe 5 years from now he'll be stronger, quicker, perhaps a little bit more athletic after he has enough time in a NBA strength and conditioning program, working with NBA trainers. I think if you look at guys in the league who are in their prime age 26-32) and you look at what they looked like as 19 year old freshmen, you'd be pretty surprised by the difference..
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#180 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:47 pm

Hal14 wrote:
1) what elite physical traits do these guys have?

Davion Mitchell- He is awful on both ends? plays 12 mins and is 29 percentile defender in epm. ??
Avery Bradley - He’s got a 6’7.25 wingspan
Alex Caruso- He is big, strong and atheltic? 6-5 with plus wingspan. "Alex Caruso impressed with his athletic testing numbers as he finished third in both the 3/4 sprint and 4-way agility test, while also posting a solid 36 max vertical. - Source: https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Alex-Caruso-58733/ ©DraftExpress"
Derrick White- 6-4 with 6-7.5 wingspan.
Jose Alvarado-
Chris Paul
Kyle Lowry
Marcus Smart - 6"8" wingspan
Patrick Beverly - 6'7"" wingspan

Jevon Carter
Deanthony Melton- 6'8'' wingpan
Delon Wright- 6'5 with plus wingspan
Mike Conley- crazy quick, 6-6 wingspan



Are you serious?

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