JMAC3 wrote:The-Power wrote:eminence wrote:I wouldn't say nobody expected Haliburton to be Haliburton.
I don't really see them as style comps, Haliburton is so much more of an on-ball guy than Sheppard.
Obviously I'm not saying that there weren't a ton of people high on him (myself included). But there's a clear difference between expecting a good NBA player and expecting an All-NBA player. Expecting an All-NBA player as a likely rather than an absolutely high-end outcome is just not realistic save perhaps for the absolute top tier of prospects (in recent years I'd say: Davis, Luka, Zion, Victor).
Perhaps some person went out on a limb and called that Haliburton would end up being both the top scorer and primary playmaker on a high-level offense but I'm not aware of that. It would certainly have been an outlier even among his fans.
I agree that Haliburton is more of an on-ball player than Sheppard (though his high-level pull-up shooting is a more recent NBA development). He's more dynamic, too, as well as more of a driver. That being said, I wonder how much more on the ball Sheppard would be had he not been placed on a team with two high-end recruits that need and want the ball in their hands in Dillingham and Wagner. Still, I'm not claiming this to be a perfect comparison. But the overall strengths and weaknesses profile isn't all that different, in my opinion.
I get it, but if Sheppard is soooo good shouldn't he be outshining DJ Wagner, Dillingham and Reaves? Not saying those guys aren't solid players in their own right but he is clearly 4th fiddle right now. Especially of late, where he is playing even a smaller role since SEC play has started. Dillingham and Wagner are also freshman so it is not like he is stuck in some upperclassman vs underclassman hierarchy either.
Among those 4 guards, Sheppard ranks:
-1st in Win Shares Per 40 Mins
-1st in BPM (his BPM is 2x higher than the others)
-1st in offensive rating
-1st in defensive rating
-1st in rebounding %
-1st in blocks %
-1st in steals %
-1st in FTr
-1st in TS%
-2nd in FT% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in 2 FG% (only behind Reeves, who's like 4 years older than the other guards)
-2nd in assist % (only behind Dillingham, who has a WAY higher usage than Sheppard. Rob has 30% assist but on a 30% usage. Sheppard gives you more bang for your buck, a much higher assist to usage ratio, with 23% assist on a 16% usage
-Tied for 3rd in points per 40 mins, despite the fact that he is 4th in usage, with a much lower usage than the others. This means he is able to do more with less touches. That's a good thing. I don't think a player is better if they are super ball dominant, need the ball in the hands a ton, need to have WAY higher usage than someone else in order to barely have more production than them. Look, none of these guys are going to be 1st or even 2nd options on an NBA team. Wouldn't you rather draft the guy who doesn't need the ball as much, can play better alongside star players, is a more effective off-ball player?
While Sheppard has less points per 40 mins than the Rob, Rob has basically DOUBLE the usage. So Rob needs basically double the touches to get his points which means Sheppard is much more efficient (as evidenced by his much higher TS%). Sheppard has lower points per 40 mins than Reeves but he's like 4 yrs younger than Reeves. Sheppard has basically the same exact points per 40 as Wagner.
Sheppard has been the better player than the other guards by a mile.