Potential sleepers

[getrichordie]

Why doesn't someone like Sam Merrill (Utah State) get brought up more? Crazy productive career. Makes me wonder if people are afraid of him being Jimmer 2.0, but Merrill has shown some off-ball ability and has SG size unlike Fredette.

Watch on YouTube

He just doesn't have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Just look at Doug McDermott. He's far more athletic and struggled to carve out a role in the NBA.

[Catchall]

Why doesn't someone like Sam Merrill (Utah State) get brought up more? Crazy productive career. Makes me wonder if people are afraid of him being Jimmer 2.0, but Merrill has shown some off-ball ability and has SG size unlike Fredette.

Watch on YouTube

He just doesn't have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Just look at Doug McDermott. He's far more athletic and struggled to carve out a role in the NBA.

The same was said about Duncan Robinson. The question with Merrill is whether he's big enough to get off 5 3pt shots per game off the bench. He's listed at 6'5", I think.

[Catchall]

I like Karim Mane as a PG prospect now that he's putting his name in. Nice pick up in the 2nd round, imo.

Watch on YouTube

[getrichordie]

I like Karim Mane as a PG prospect now that he's putting his name in. Nice pick up in the 2nd round, imo.

Watch on YouTube

What do you like about him?

[getrichordie]

Why doesn't someone like Sam Merrill (Utah State) get brought up more? Crazy productive career. Makes me wonder if people are afraid of him being Jimmer 2.0, but Merrill has shown some off-ball ability and has SG size unlike Fredette.

Watch on YouTube

He just doesn't have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Just look at Doug McDermott. He's far more athletic and struggled to carve out a role in the NBA.

The same was said about Duncan Robinson. The question with Merrill is whether he's big enough to get off 5 3pt shots per game off the bench. He's listed at 6'5", I think.

Watch on YouTube

It's clear to me that Robinson was significantly more athletic coming out of college... and he played tougher competition. Played in the Big 10 versus Mountain West.

[Klomp]

Why doesn't someone like Sam Merrill (Utah State) get brought up more? Crazy productive career. Makes me wonder if people are afraid of him being Jimmer 2.0, but Merrill has shown some off-ball ability and has SG size unlike Fredette.

Watch on YouTube

He just doesn't have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Just look at Doug McDermott. He's far more athletic and struggled to carve out a role in the NBA.

Struggled to carve out a role? He's been a 20 mpg guy basically his whole career.

Shooting is something every team is looking for. Merrill has shot over 41% on 3-pointers in 3 of his 4 seasons (and 2 seasons over 45%) on high volume. That just seems like something teams would be interested in.

[Klomp]

Hollinger on Merrill:

To be sure, there are concerns here. Merrill is average at best defensively, even in college, and he may turn out to be too flammable at the pro level for his offensive value to offset.

That said, his production and skill level suggest his draft stock is far too low. Let’s start with the fact that in our quest to find the next Duncan Robinson or Davis Bertans, someone who can launch multitudinous 3s with 40 percent accuracy, Merrill has some serious possibilities. He shot 41.0 percent from 3 and 89.3 percent from the line last season, and his career numbers from 3 are even better (42.0 percent). This wasn’t cherrypicking either — many of his attempts were off the dribble because he was the team’s primary shot-creator, and he was a volume launcher who took nearly seven a game. He has a great shot fake, too.

We’ve had a lot of good college shooters, however, and many of them were unplayable at the NBA level. The difference in Merrill’s case is how good he is on the ball for his size. He’s a 6-5 guard who appears to have decent length, and is extremely comfortably coming off of curls and playing in pick-and-rolls. While he doesn’t have the dynamism to get to the rim consistently, even with a screen, he makes the right decision darn near every time. He played in the mid-major Mountain West Conference, but the tape says that even in games against athletic SEC teams like Florida and LSU he was the best player on the court.

The numbers are pretty emphatic here. Merrill’s rate of 6.5 assists per 100 possession is a really high figure for a wing player who is supposedly just taking jump shots, but what stands out even more is his piddling 9.0 percent Turnover Rate. He’s making plays while hardly ever making mistakes. The only significant prospect with a lower Turnover Rate is Florida State’s Devin Vassell, and Vassell is a guaranteed lottery pick. Merrill is going in the late second round.

Again, Merrill was doing this in a high-usage role that saw him average 32.6 points and 6.5 assists per 100 possessions, while knocking down 41 percent of his 3s and shooting 51.5 percent on 2s. Obviously, Merrill won’t be a primary ballhandler at the NBA level, but the numbers above bode well for his capacity to operate as a second-side playmaker who has a Plan B if he’s not open from 3.

Merrill’s rebound-block-steal numbers aren’t great and signify that he’ll likely face an athletic deficit, and that correctly dampens his draft stock a bit. But in a league increasingly tilted toward skill, Merrill has it in bunches. I don’t know where that puts him on my final board yet, but at worst he’s a second-round sleeper who has been significantly undervalued. And I strongly suspect that not nearly enough people saw him this year.

https://theathletic.com/1758640/2020/04/20/hollinger-five-takes-on-nba-draft-prospects-where-im-against-the-consensus/

[getrichordie]

Why doesn't someone like Sam Merrill (Utah State) get brought up more? Crazy productive career. Makes me wonder if people are afraid of him being Jimmer 2.0, but Merrill has shown some off-ball ability and has SG size unlike Fredette.

Watch on YouTube

He just doesn't have the athleticism to succeed at the next level.

Just look at Doug McDermott. He's far more athletic and struggled to carve out a role in the NBA.

Struggled to carve out a role? He's been a 20 mpg guy basically his whole career.

Shooting is something every team is looking for. Merrill has shot over 41% on 3-pointers in 3 of his 4 seasons (and 2 seasons over 45%) on high volume. That just seems like something teams would be interested in.

On teams that were desperate for wing help. Hell, Chicago gave Zipser 20 mpg. And OKC has always been starving for wing help since the dawn of time. And then a bad NYK team, where he couldn't earn more minutes than Beasley. And on and on and on. He's been a journeyman. And FWIW, he's still a net negative player. So it goes to show you how hard it is to find a spot in the NBA even if you are a lights out shooter in college.

Merrill struggles to finish at the rim, too. Robinson was a really good finisher around the rim, hitting over 60% of his attempts. Merrill? 55% and the number drops to 45% against stronger competition. So really what Merrill is just a shooting specialist who struggles to run the floor and is probably a bigger negative on defense than positive on offense at the next level.

Also, Robinson registered a 3.1 DBPM in his last season @ Michigan. Merrill's best DBPM is 0.8 in his last year @ Utah St.

[Klomp]

My mistake, I thought this thread was titled potential sleepers and not prospects who are guaranteed to carve out a significant role in the NBA.

[No-Man]

People underrate height a whole lot, it's a real threshold, Robinson is 6'8

[HeadtopChunes]

What about Herb Jones? Might be the best defender in the class. If he can figure out how to score from any level could be a pretty decent piece.

Although he might have worse touch than Stanely Johnson which makes it pretty unlikely that it happens.

[getrichordie]

My mistake, I thought this thread was titled potential sleepers and not prospects who are guaranteed to carve out a significant role in the NBA.

It is, but I just don’t see the potential with Merrill is what I’m saying... if teams are looking for a shooter, there’s better options out there.

[getrichordie]

What about Herb Jones? Might be the best defender in the class. If he can figure out how to score from any level could be a pretty decent piece.

Although he might have worse touch than Stanely Johnson which makes it pretty unlikely that it happens.

Hard to teach someone how to score. Easier to teach defense IMO.

Not a fan of Jones, but his teammate John Petty is a nice sleeper.

[HeadtopChunes]

What about Herb Jones? Might be the best defender in the class. If he can figure out how to score from any level could be a pretty decent piece.

Although he might have worse touch than Stanely Johnson which makes it pretty unlikely that it happens.

Hard to teach someone how to score. Easier to teach defense IMO.

Not a fan of Jones, but his teammate John Petty is a nice sleeper.

Yeah, Petty had a great season too. Improved a lot the shooting was ridiculous this year.

Could be UFA/Late 2nd steal for the right team. Maybe Houston

[Klomp]

People underrate height a whole lot, it's a real threshold, Robinson is 6'8

It's a real threshold that varies by position. 6-foot-8 is fine for a SF, but would be less than adequate for a C. Merrill's 6-foot-5 listing is absolutely reasonable for the SG position he'd play.

[Klomp]

My mistake, I thought this thread was titled potential sleepers and not prospects who are guaranteed to carve out a significant role in the NBA.

It is, but I just don’t see the potential with Merrill is what I’m saying... if teams are looking for a shooter, there’s better options out there.

Such as?

I didn't realize going 45.1%-46.4%-37.6%-41.1% from the 3-point line and 87.8%-84.9%-90.9%-89.3% from the free throw line was such an easy bar to beat if you're looking for translatable shooting from a late 2nd rounder or undrafted free agent.

[getrichordie]

Thoughts on L.J. Figueroa?

[nolang1]

I don’t know how much Lamine Diane qualifies as a sleeper, but once you get to the 2nd round I think the risk/reward in terms of the kind of player you can get if he gets a 3-pointer starts looking pretty good. His numbers are not as empty as they appear at first glance.

Read on Twitter

[Upperclass]

John Petty.. to me.. looked like a better prospect his freshmen year than Colin sexton.. his issue may be does he have an nba personality.. not whether he has an nba game..

[UcanUwill]

People underrate height a whole lot, it's a real threshold, Robinson is 6'8

It's a real threshold that varies by position. 6-foot-8 is fine for a SF, but would be less than adequate for a C. Merrill's 6-foot-5 listing is absolutely reasonable for the SG position he'd play.

The taller you are the less athleticism is required, because you can make up for it with your height. This is why Jokic, Sabonis, Ilgauskas, Okur, Divac, etc were very good NBA players, and guys like Jimmer, Navarro, Macijauskas, Morrison were not. This is basics people, if you are a guard and this slow, you will have hard time in this league, you cant compare to a guys 4 inch taller. How many terribly unathletic guards there are in the NBA right now, far less than unatheltic bigs is the answer.