2018 NBA Draft

[Worm122]

How does look like this draft now that the season its on?


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[Foliohattu]

Can someone explain what this DMX means? What does it take into account?

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

On Hardwood Blues they explained it:

While I think the DMX results are interesting, the process behind it isn’t overly scientific. To grade each player’s Per 40 minute stats I used Kevin Ferrigan’s DRE Daily RAPM formula and catered it to draft prospects (greater emphasis on steal rate, for example). To give context to those stats, I adjusted each player’s statistical grade (their “DMX Per 40”) for age, height, playing time, and NCAA strength of schedule (via KenPom). I kept the international model the exact same, only I assigned SOS values for international leagues by using FIBA stats to estimate their level of competition relative to the NCAA. I then tinkered with the weight of each adjustment based on previous drafts, which produced the current version of the model. Save for a handful of outliers, each prospect is assigned a grade between 0-10, with the average for drafted players being just over 4.

https://hardwoodblues.wordpress.com/2017/04/12/re-introducing-dmx-2017-rankings/

[janmagn]

Can someone explain what this DMX means? What does it take into account?

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

On Hardwood Blues they explained it:

While I think the DMX results are interesting, the process behind it isn’t overly scientific. To grade each player’s Per 40 minute stats I used Kevin Ferrigan’s DRE Daily RAPM formula and catered it to draft prospects (greater emphasis on steal rate, for example). To give context to those stats, I adjusted each player’s statistical grade (their “DMX Per 40”) for age, height, playing time, and NCAA strength of schedule (via KenPom). I kept the international model the exact same, only I assigned SOS values for international leagues by using FIBA stats to estimate their level of competition relative to the NCAA. I then tinkered with the weight of each adjustment based on previous drafts, which produced the current version of the model. Save for a handful of outliers, each prospect is assigned a grade between 0-10, with the average for drafted players being just over 4.

https://hardwoodblues.wordpress.com/2017/04/12/re-introducing-dmx-2017-rankings/

Thanks man

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

[doordoor123]

The more I watch Jontay Porter, the more I think he’s a lottery pick. When I don’t watch a player for a while I get recency-bias.

[Catchall]

I think Miles Bridges could have an NBA career like Caron Butler, maybe even a bit better.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Can someone explain what this DMX means? What does it take into account?

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

New York rapper.

Took dogs/pit-bulls into account.

[doordoor123]

I think Miles Bridges could have an NBA career like Caron Butler, maybe even a bit better.

To me Miles Bridges is such a Marcus Smart pick. I see him coming in and immediately having a role like that, but fear he’s only going to have that role. Smart is kind of stuck in that role now that he hasn’t really developed and I fear that with Bridges, but Bridges is already developing so that might not be an issue.

[Mecca]

I think Miles Bridges could have an NBA career like Caron Butler, maybe even a bit better.

To me Miles Bridges is such a Marcus Smart pick. I see him coming in and immediately having a role like that, but fear he’s only going to have that role. Smart is kind of stuck in that role now that he hasn’t really developed and I fear that with Bridges, but Bridges is already developing so that might not be an issue.

Smart can't shoot. Bridges can. That comp stinks.

[doordoor123]

I think Miles Bridges could have an NBA career like Caron Butler, maybe even a bit better.

To me Miles Bridges is such a Marcus Smart pick. I see him coming in and immediately having a role like that, but fear he’s only going to have that role. Smart is kind of stuck in that role now that he hasn’t really developed and I fear that with Bridges, but Bridges is already developing so that might not be an issue.

Smart can't shoot. Bridges can. That comp stinks.

I’m not saying they’re the same player. Read between the lines.

[doordoor123]

Either Shamorie Ponds isn’t 6’1 or Jalen Brunson isn’t 6’3. They’re the same height.

By the way, I can guarantee Dakota Mathias will be drafted by the end of the year. He’s going to rise in the tournament as Purdue wins. He’s a really good shooter who defends (he’s the first guy on the floor) and he makes really good passes. Maybe not first round, but he’s definitely getting drafted.

[Cosmic_Backlash]

the more I see from the draft class, the crazier I think it is.

I like to look at the following for Freshman

BPM > 10 (shows they are in impact player)
Assist % > 8% (anything less than this is a red flag of low offensive awareness)
TS% > 60% (Effective Scorer)
Minutes > 300 (get rid of noisy low minutes players)

Going back to the 2010 season 19 players have filled these requirements. Some of the past were Karl Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving, Lonzo Ball, Cody Zeller.

What's most interesting to me is that of those 19 players, 7 have come form this draft class. A whopping 37%.

http://cbbref.com/tiny/SHQbf

This draft class is special.

[doordoor123]

I just want to mention two shooters tearing it up recently and two guys who I think are underrated.

Jaylen Adams and Fletcher MaGee

Their last two games (and these aren’t outliers — they score a lot)

Adams:
6ast, 44pts
7ast, 40pts

MaGee
5reb, 5ast, 27pts
2reb, 2ast, 23pts

Adams: 51% from 3 on 6 attempts per game, 81.8% free throw, 4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals. Granted this is a little inflated due to competition.

MaGee: 57% FG%, 43% from 3 on 10 attempts per game, 91.9% free throw, 2.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1 steal.

The crazy thing about these guys is how they get their shots off.

Adams can launch it from deep and make his baskets and he could do it in a variety of ways, off the dribble, off of screens and spot ups. He’s also great at dribble-steps and faking guys out.

MaGee is the best shooter in college basketball. He’s amazing at shooting off of screens and making off-balance shots, but he can do everything in terms of shooting. He says he learns from Redick and I actually think he can be better than Redick. He moves on offense the entire game and he can make more off-balance shots than Redick ever did. I have him as a Mid-first rounder.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[GimmeDat]

I posed this question a month or two ago, keen to revisit it. How would you rate these bigs? (no order here) -

Robert Williams
Wendell Carter
Daniel Gafford
Jontay Porter
Mitchell Robinson
Brandon McCoy
Sagaba Konate
Chimezie Metu
Killian Tillie
Omer Yursteven
Bruno Fernando

Feel free to add someone if I've missed them as well.

[doordoor123]

I posed this question a month or two ago, keen to revisit it. How would you rate these bigs? (no order here) -

Robert Williams
Wendell Carter
Daniel Gafford
Jontay Porter
Mitchell Robinson
Brandon McCoy
Sagaba Konate
Chimezie Metu
Killian Tillie
Omer Yursteven
Bruno Fernando

Feel free to add someone if I've missed them as well.

How are you ranking them? In terms of where they’ll go in draft? In terms of how successful they can be given the opportunity? How well they translate to the next level? In terms of upside? In terms of who we like the most? In terms of who we would draft given the opportunity?

Killian Tillie in particular looks really out of place. He’s the only one who doesn’t play center and won’t at the next level. Metu probably won’t at the next level, but plays center right now.

I watch a ton of USC and most of the games I go to live are USC or UCLA games. In the past I was super high on Metu, but this year he’s still super skinny and he’s still super inconsistent. He also has a slow jumper so I’m not sure how his three point shot will develop. Im not a fan of his jumper in general. I really think one thing that will help his game a lot is if he is able to gain weight, but I don’t think he won’t be able to do it if he hasn’t been able to thus far.

On the bright side, he has fluidity and good footwork. I could see him being a solid post player even though he’s skinny. I also really like his fluidity, athleticism and long strides. I think he can be dangerous when he attacks the basket, on cuts, in the P&R or when he just dribbles down the lane. I can also see him becoming a good passer in the post. He isn’t a great passer right now because he rarely has the opportunity to pass, but has some really nice flashes when given the opportunity. I also think if he maintains his fluidity he’ll be able to be average defensively on the wing and at least recover of guys get by him.

With Metu in particular I’m lower on him because I’m trying not to be bias by going against him. In reality he’s probably a better prospect than I’m giving him credit for. He has the physical attributes to be successful in the NBA, probably more-so than someone like Killian Tillie, who I’m high on, but Tillie isn’t as quick, fluid and athletic.

I look at the Blazers with something similar. I was a big fan of Caleb Swanigan last year and he’s more skilled than Zach Collins, but Zach Collins is getting more minutes because he is more fluid and athletic. It makes a big difference. I also think more and more that skinniness isn’t a huge deal if the player isn’t playing center because they play more on the perimeter nowadays. There are a bunch of skinny bigs that have become successful. Metu in particular is good at defending the weak side with solid block timing and I think it may be the difference.

I might end up moving him up because he has way too much upside if he can figure it out and the skinniness is an issue, but it’s also a question. Can someone who’s skinny succeed? In the NBA there is evidence that players can get by being skinny.

[No-Man]

I posed this question a month or two ago, keen to revisit it. How would you rate these bigs? (no order here) -

Robert Williams
Wendell Carter
Daniel Gafford
Jontay Porter
Mitchell Robinson
Brandon McCoy
Sagaba Konate
Chimezie Metu
Killian Tillie
Omer Yursteven
Bruno Fernando

Feel free to add someone if I've missed them as well.

Williams
Robinson
Carter

Porter
Tillie
Gafford



Konate
Fernando

Yurtseven
Metu






















McCoy

[GimmeDat]

I posed this question a month or two ago, keen to revisit it. How would you rate these bigs? (no order here) -

Robert Williams
Wendell Carter
Daniel Gafford
Jontay Porter
Mitchell Robinson
Brandon McCoy
Sagaba Konate
Chimezie Metu
Killian Tillie
Omer Yursteven
Bruno Fernando

Feel free to add someone if I've missed them as well.

How are you ranking them? In terms of where they’ll go in draft? In terms of how successful they can be given the opportunity? How well they translate to the next level? In terms of upside? In terms of who we like the most? In terms of who we would draft given the opportunity?

Some combination of those factors. Let's say 'if they were all on the board, what would you order of preference for picking them be'.

[eminence]

Porter is my favorite of the guys currently playing games. Who knows on Robinson.

[doordoor123]

Wendell Carter
Jontay Porter
Daniel Gafford - I had him lower down, but just talked myself into putting him higher. He’s so mobile and mobility/athleticism translates to the NBA. He’s also a good defender and can defend out on the perimeter a little bit. I remember Clint Capela as a prospect (I was high on him) and I think Gafford is a better prospect. But he’s still raw and needs work.
Robert Williams - not a fan of his offense, but he’s super athletic and in my eyes because Montrezl Harrell made it, he can also make it, but be even better. He has the upside. I think he’s a different player once he’s coached up by an NBA team.
Mitchell Robinson - Hard not to take a 7 footer that’s athletic and can shoot 3s, even if he isn’t developed.
Killian Tillie - He’s a safe pick, but he’s going to be a key player for a team who can defend inside/out and can both make baskets inside with a soft touch and outside with his jumper. The thing that’s so great about him is his movement off-ball. He’s always in the right place on the floor and is constantly moving.
Chimezie Metu
Omer Yurtseven - A 7 footer who can shoot threes like him is valuable, I’m not really sold on the rest of his game. If he can figure the rest out and translate I think he can be a good player.
Sagaba Konate - I really like his ability to translate. Much like Jordan Bell last year, I can’t see him failing in the NBA. He’s a better prospect than Larry Nance was when he was drafted.
Brandon McCoy
Bruno Fernando - I’m torn because I think he has potential to be better than a roleplayer if he expands his game. I’ve seen some promising stuff from him. He reminds me of a worse version of Pascal Siakam (Siakam was able to shoot threes). But he has that type of mobility. I’m just not sure he will be able to get much better and have the confidence to play better.

[blazeyo]

I just want to mention two shooters tearing it up recently and two guys who I think are underrated.

Jaylen Adams and Fletcher MaGee

Their last two games (and these aren’t outliers — they score a lot)

Adams:
6ast, 44pts
7ast, 40pts

MaGee
5reb, 5ast, 27pts
2reb, 2ast, 23pts

Adams: 51% from 3 on 6 attempts per game, 81.8% free throw, 4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals. Granted this is a little inflated due to competition.

MaGee: 57% FG%, 43% from 3 on 10 attempts per game, 91.9% free throw, 2.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1 steal.

The crazy thing about these guys is how they get their shots off.

Adams can launch it from deep and make his baskets and he could do it in a variety of ways, off the dribble, off of screens and spot ups. He’s also great at dribble-steps and faking guys out.

MaGee is the best shooter in college basketball. He’s amazing at shooting off of screens and making off-balance shots, but he can do everything in terms of shooting. He says he learns from Redick and I actually think he can be better than Redick. He moves on offense the entire game and he can make more off-balance shots than Redick ever did. I have him as a Mid-first rounder.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Lol... MaGee will never be in the NBA. Can't defend at anyone and he is playing in one of the worst conferences... you really think he can be even a rotational player in the NBA?

[doordoor123]

I just want to mention two shooters tearing it up recently and two guys who I think are underrated.

Jaylen Adams and Fletcher MaGee

Their last two games (and these aren’t outliers — they score a lot)

Adams:
6ast, 44pts
7ast, 40pts

MaGee
5reb, 5ast, 27pts
2reb, 2ast, 23pts

Adams: 51% from 3 on 6 attempts per game, 81.8% free throw, 4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals. Granted this is a little inflated due to competition.

MaGee: 57% FG%, 43% from 3 on 10 attempts per game, 91.9% free throw, 2.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1 steal.

The crazy thing about these guys is how they get their shots off.

Adams can launch it from deep and make his baskets and he could do it in a variety of ways, off the dribble, off of screens and spot ups. He’s also great at dribble-steps and faking guys out.

MaGee is the best shooter in college basketball. He’s amazing at shooting off of screens and making off-balance shots, but he can do everything in terms of shooting. He says he learns from Redick and I actually think he can be better than Redick. He moves on offense the entire game and he can make more off-balance shots than Redick ever did. I have him as a Mid-first rounder.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Lol... MaGee will never be in the NBA. Can't defend at anyone and he is playing in one of the worst conferences... you really think he can be even a rotational player in the NBA?

I disagree. He runs so much on offense it’s impossible for him to play defense. And yes, he’s a historically good shooter shooting in every kind of way, with hands in his face, off balance, etc. Even in the NBA he can make those shots. And a good indicator of that is his free throw percentage 92%.