Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[Hal14]

1) what elite physical traits do these guys have?

Davion Mitchell- He is awful on both ends? plays 12 mins and is 29 percentile defender in epm. ??
Avery Bradley - He’s got a 6’7.25 wingspan
Alex Caruso- He is big, strong and atheltic? 6-5 with plus wingspan. "Alex Caruso impressed with his athletic testing numbers as he finished third in both the 3/4 sprint and 4-way agility test, while also posting a solid 36 max vertical. - Source: https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Alex-Caruso-58733/ ©DraftExpress"
Derrick White- 6-4 with 6-7.5 wingspan.
Jose Alvarado-
Chris Paul
Kyle Lowry
Marcus Smart - 6"8" wingspan
Patrick Beverly - 6'7"" wingspan

Jevon Carter
Deanthony Melton- 6'8'' wingpan
Delon Wright- 6'5 with plus wingspan
Mike Conley- crazy quick, 6-6 wingspan

Are you serious?

Since when is 6'6" wingspan an elite physical trait? Since when is being 6'4" an elite physical trait? Even 6'7" and 6'8" wingspan, that is not an elite physical trait.

3rd place in a sprint 10 years ago and a "solid" 36" max vertical is elite physical traits? That sounds solid - not elite.

You're reaching.

And half the guys you didn't even put anything for.

Davion Mitchell is a very good defender. The fact that he doesn't play much for Sacramento this season is not because of his defense.

Those guys who you say have a 6'7" wingspan. What were their steal and block rates in college? I don't think any of them had the steal and block rates that Sheppard has, as a freshman.

5.0% steals and 2.9% blocks. Here's some other guys who posted similar numbers in college:

-Tari Eason (as a sophomore)
-Matisse Thybulle (as a junior and as a senior)
-Gary Payton II (as a junior)
-Victor Oladipo (as a junior)

All of those guys ended up being very good defenders in the NBA. Sure, they might have been taller or more athletic or stronger but Sheppard still put up similar (or better) stocks numbers than them..and Sheppard did it at a younger age than them

Reece Beekman also pulls into the search query as having similar steals and blocks %...and Beekman is a senior! Beekman also has a 6'7" wingspan. Wow, ya don't say! So you're trying to tell me that those other defenders I listed before were only able to be good NBA defenders because they had a 6'7" wingspan, yet Reece Beekman also has a 6'7" wingspan (and is arguably the best guard defender in college basketball) yet his steals % and blocks % numbers (as a senior) are both slightly lower* than Sheppard's numbers as a freshman..

Another guy who pulls into the search results when you look for guys who have put up similar numbers to Sheppard in terms of steal %, blocks % and defensive BPM is Kadary Richmond. Richmond is 6'6", built sturdy with a 6'9" wingspan. By your logic, he is miles better than Sheppard as a defender. But let's look at the stats. Richmond is in his 4th year of college basketball - if you look at his career highs for steals %, blocks % and defensive BPM, his career high in each of those categories is lower than what Sheppard is putting up this season - as a freshman.

[JMAC3]

1) what elite physical traits do these guys have?

Davion Mitchell- He is awful on both ends? plays 12 mins and is 29 percentile defender in epm. ??
Avery Bradley - He’s got a 6’7.25 wingspan
Alex Caruso- He is big, strong and atheltic? 6-5 with plus wingspan. "Alex Caruso impressed with his athletic testing numbers as he finished third in both the 3/4 sprint and 4-way agility test, while also posting a solid 36 max vertical. - Source: https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Alex-Caruso-58733/ ©DraftExpress"
Derrick White- 6-4 with 6-7.5 wingspan.
Jose Alvarado-
Chris Paul
Kyle Lowry
Marcus Smart - 6"8" wingspan
Patrick Beverly - 6'7"" wingspan

Jevon Carter
Deanthony Melton- 6'8'' wingpan
Delon Wright- 6'5 with plus wingspan
Mike Conley- crazy quick, 6-6 wingspan

Are you serious?

Since when is 6'6" wingspan an elite physical trait? Since when is being 6'4" an elite physical trait? Even 6'7" and 6'8" wingspan, that is not an elite physical trait.

3rd place in a sprint 10 years ago and a "solid" 36" max vertical is elite physical traits? That sounds solid - not elite.

You're reaching.

And half the guys you didn't even put anything for.

Davion Mitchell is a very good defender. The fact that he doesn't play much for Sacramento this season is not because of his defense.

If you don't think a pg having a 6-7 or 6-8 wingspan is an elite trait then what does that mean when Sheppard comes in at 6-3 wingspan at best? If those other guys are just average, then Sheppard's needs to be viewed as terrible.

[Colbinii]

What does a better shooting and smaller Lonzo Ball project at the NBA?

That's how I see Reed. Extremely intelligent, which actually allows him to play right away as the complexities of the Modern NBA shouldn't be difficult for him to pick-up. Excellent shooter off-ball allows him to play-off of ball-dominant and helio's. His Connectivity let's him fill in offensively and get the ball to where it needs to go without being a ball-stopper.

It's actually pretty incredible when looking at his statistical profile. He is in the 99th percentile for All Freshman dating back to 2011.

Here are his ranks out of 727 Freshman I have analyzed.

Spoiler:

#1 in TS% [The Top of this list is dominated by big men like Jaxson Hayes, Thomas Bryant, Zion Williamson, Zach Collins, Chet Holmgren, Obi Toppin, Domantas Sabonis. The best guard prospect is Lonzo Ball at #17.

#6 in BPM [The Top 5 is Zion, AD, Chat, KAT and Mobley while the next 10 after Reed is Noel, Ball, Embiid, Dlo, Zeller and Jaren Jackson Jr]

#5 in STL% [The top here has two Non-Big 5 conferences in Weber and Omlid but then the next two are Smart and McConnell with players like Caruso and Jevon Carter right behind Reed].

#660 in USG% [Notably next to T.J. McConnell, Nik Stauskus, Kevin Huerter, Josh Hart and Rodney Hood]

I think it is fair to say you don't like his high-end outcomes or see his high-end outcomes being clearly attainable. I don't think you need to squint to see a T.J. McConnell who can shoot the lights out of the ball and T.J. McConnell who can't shoot is clearly a Top 14 player from the 2015 NBA Draft.

The end of the lottery is filled with teams like the Bulls, Kings, OKCx2, Hawks and Magic. I think all these teams, especially OKC, Sacramento and Orlando who are in win-now mode, would love to add Reed to their back-court. He would fit great with SGA/Cason, Fox and the uptempo Kings, and Orlando next to Black/Suggs long-term.

[Hal14]

The only guys in the Bartorrvik database (which goes back like 20 years) with at least 5.0% steals, 2.9% blocks and 5.9 defensive BPM in same season:

Jamal Shead (as a senior)
Sheppard (as a freshman)
Matisse Thybulle (as a senior)
Gary Payton II (as a junior)

Crazy how all those guys with the 6'7" wingspans couldn't be as productive defensively in college as Sheppard has been!

Here's the list of guys since 2014 who are at least 6'0" and had a season with 82% or higher FT, 54% or higher 3FG and at least 8 3PA/100 possessions:
Reed Sheppard
No one else

[FarBeyondDriven]

This is a great example of scouts who value statistics at lower levels more, believing those will translate to the NBA over scouts who value physical and athletic traits more, believing those will better translate to the NBA. I don't pay too much attention to stats due to a variety of factors as much as some do. I'm more impressed by 6'6" Carrington scoring 9 points but flashing NBA level skills reminding me of SGA that could one day see him as a starting NBA point guard than I am of Sheppard hitting a few wide open threes and getting steals and blocks against poor competition. Because in my mind, 3-4 years down the road I believe there's a better chance of Carrington becoming a starter and difference maker than there is of Sheppard becoming one.

Besides the higher ceiling international guys and other freshmen I prefer, there's a few returners with better NBA size and athleticism that offer the same things Sheppard does I'd prefer over him as well. This is why he's not likely to be in my lottery. I felt the same way about Gradey Dick last year too. Great college player but it didn't seem like it was going to translate to the NBA because he wouldn't be able to defend and besides catch and shoot threes, very little of his offensive game would either. And he's a legit 6'7". I can't fathom how a 6'2" guy like Sheppard will see the floor enough to produce at a level that is worth taking high.

[MemphisX]

Steph Curry was 6'2 barefoot, 6'3.25 in shoes, 8'1 standing reach, and a wingspan of 6'3.5.


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[Colbinii]

Steph Curry was 6'2 barefoot, 6'3.25 in shoes, 8'1 standing reach, and a wingspan of 6'3.5.


[x]

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Friendly reminder that as a freshman Curry shot 15 FGA/G and nearly 9 3PA/G.

Also, he was in a worse conference.

Food for thought.

[Frichuela]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

[The-Power]

What does a better shooting and smaller Lonzo Ball project at the NBA?

That's how I see Reed.

I like this comparison. Ball was not only bigger but also more athletic which makes a difference on both ends. But obviously Sheppard has the shooting advantage. While there were always concerns about how Lonzo's shooting translates to the NBA considering his odd mechanics and poor FT%, there are no such concerns with Sheppard.

[EvanZ]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

[MemphisX]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

This is how I felt about Hali.

[Colbinii]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

[EvanZ]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

This is how I felt about Hali.

Right therefore it can never be a concern for anyone again because there are no such thing as outliers.

[EvanZ]

Reed stats are so incredible that if he keeps this efficiency through March madness, he should be a top-5 pick in a very weak draft.

Comparing him to Curry, a key question is if he can be the lead (point) guard of an NBA team. So far this season, his assists per 36 are similar to Curry's junior collage season.

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

[MemphisX]

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

SMH

[Colbinii]

16% usage is really really low to project lead guard

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

Fall for what?

I don't expect Reed to ever be a high-volume creator.

[mattao313]

If he can play that Marcus smart type role and be a 40% shooter that's a legit high quality starter. Lotto pick imo

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

[EvanZ]

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

Fall for what?

I don't expect Reed to ever be a high-volume creator.

Wait so why bring up Haliburton?

[EvanZ]

So is 9.2%, which was Haliburtons during his Freshman Year.

Unfortunately we won't see what Reed would do as a Sophomore in college.

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

SMH

What part do you disagree with?

[Colbinii]

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

Fall for what?

I don't expect Reed to ever be a high-volume creator.

Wait so why bring up Haliburton?

I don't know if Freshman USG% is the best indicator.