2021 NBA Draft

[Sea2003]

Deleted my above post, but had said 2nd round maybe take a shot. Think undraftable might be a bit strong but maybe 2nd round.

Numbers wise his season was pretty awful, sub 45%TS and 30% on 3s, a little similar to Hamidou Diallo statistically, only worse. And Diallo was a higher prospect in HS too if I recall. He's probably draftable but like somewhere mid 2nd round? This isn't "struggling" like some other names mentioned. And don't want to sound like I'm trying to trash any of these guys, but don't see it here, not sure there's a precedent for this level of production ending up being a very good NBA player.

Edit:

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/?player=Brandon+Boston+Jr.

His 1st 3 comp is Diallo. And he might end up being maybe a fringe rotation player right now after 3 years of development.

Well, in his defense, he barely had any training camp so it's understandable that he shot so badly to begin the season. By the time he started shooting well, it was too late to salvage his draft stock. I don't think there's any way you go from being a top 7 prospect to borderline 2nd round pick without a good reason.

[bondom34]

Deleted my above post, but had said 2nd round maybe take a shot. Think undraftable might be a bit strong but maybe 2nd round.

Numbers wise his season was pretty awful, sub 45%TS and 30% on 3s, a little similar to Hamidou Diallo statistically, only worse. And Diallo was a higher prospect in HS too if I recall. He's probably draftable but like somewhere mid 2nd round? This isn't "struggling" like some other names mentioned. And don't want to sound like I'm trying to trash any of these guys, but don't see it here, not sure there's a precedent for this level of production ending up being a very good NBA player.

Edit:

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/?player=Brandon+Boston+Jr.

His 1st 3 comp is Diallo. And he might end up being maybe a fringe rotation player right now after 3 years of development.

Well, in his defense, he barely had any training camp so it's understandable that he shot so badly to begin the season. By the time he started shooting well, it was too late to salvage his draft stock. I don't think there's any way you go from being a top 7 prospect to borderline 2nd round pick without a good reason.

Not playing well seems one.

It happens every year, there's a high school recruit who comes into the year with crazy high stock and drops. Hamidou Diallo was a 5 star recruit ranked 11th by ESPN. Then he played in college.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hamidou-diallo-11-espn-100-picks-kentucky-uconn/story?id=44624804

Edit (per Rivals):

2019: Vernon Carey was top 5. Scottie Lewis fell far enough he returned. Same for Matthew Hurt, both top 10.

2018: Top 10 included Quentin Grimes (who just now might be drafted) and Bol Bol who went mid 2nd.

2016: Harry Giles was the 2nd ranked recruit.

2015: Skal Labisierre, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone all top 10.

[clyde21]

Deleted my above post, but had said 2nd round maybe take a shot. Think undraftable might be a bit strong but maybe 2nd round.

Numbers wise his season was pretty awful, sub 45%TS and 30% on 3s, a little similar to Hamidou Diallo statistically, only worse. And Diallo was a higher prospect in HS too if I recall. He's probably draftable but like somewhere mid 2nd round? This isn't "struggling" like some other names mentioned. And don't want to sound like I'm trying to trash any of these guys, but don't see it here, not sure there's a precedent for this level of production ending up being a very good NBA player.

Edit:

https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced/?player=Brandon+Boston+Jr.

His 1st 3 comp is Diallo. And he might end up being maybe a fringe rotation player right now after 3 years of development.

Well, in his defense, he barely had any training camp so it's understandable that he shot so badly to begin the season. By the time he started shooting well, it was too late to salvage his draft stock. I don't think there's any way you go from being a top 7 prospect to borderline 2nd round pick without a good reason.

Not playing well seems one.

It happens every year, there's a high school recruit who comes into the year with crazy high stock and drops. Hamidou Diallo was a 5 star recruit ranked 11th by ESPN. Then he played in college.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hamidou-diallo-11-espn-100-picks-kentucky-uconn/story?id=44624804

Edit (per Rivals):

2019: Vernon Carey was top 5. Scottie Lewis fell far enough he returned. Same for Matthew Hurt, both top 10.

2018: Top 10 included Quentin Grimes (who just now might be drafted) and Bol Bol who went mid 2nd.

2016: Harry Giles was the 2nd ranked recruit.

2015: Skal Labisierre, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone all top 10.

everyone's stock plummeted on this Kentucky team, not just BJ, but Jackson, Clarke and even Askew...that team was largely a mess...even Sarr who was a senior transfer from Wake Forest his numbers dropped across the board, went from shooting 54% at WF to shooting 47% at UK...sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers and look at the skill set, and in terms of scoring chops and toolset, BJ is top tier...is he raw? absolutely...will he take time? yes...but you can't teach a lot of natural scoring tools and skills he already has.

[bondom34]

Well, in his defense, he barely had any training camp so it's understandable that he shot so badly to begin the season. By the time he started shooting well, it was too late to salvage his draft stock. I don't think there's any way you go from being a top 7 prospect to borderline 2nd round pick without a good reason.

Not playing well seems one.

It happens every year, there's a high school recruit who comes into the year with crazy high stock and drops. Hamidou Diallo was a 5 star recruit ranked 11th by ESPN. Then he played in college.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hamidou-diallo-11-espn-100-picks-kentucky-uconn/story?id=44624804

Edit (per Rivals):

2019: Vernon Carey was top 5. Scottie Lewis fell far enough he returned. Same for Matthew Hurt, both top 10.

2018: Top 10 included Quentin Grimes (who just now might be drafted) and Bol Bol who went mid 2nd.

2016: Harry Giles was the 2nd ranked recruit.

2015: Skal Labisierre, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone all top 10.

everyone's stock plummeted on this Kentucky team, not just BJ, but Jackson, Clarke and even Askew...that team was largely a mess...even Sarr who was a senior transfer from Wake Forest his numbers dropped across the board, went from shooting 54% at WF to shooting 47% at UK...sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers and look at the skill set, and in terms of scoring chops and toolset, BJ is top tier...is he raw? absolutely...will he take time? yes...but you can't teach a lot of natural scoring tools and skills he already has.

He didn't really seem to have it by any measure I can find. There's a reason his stock fell, other guys played a lot better. Happens every year. I can't see him as more than a 2nd round guy right now, and it's not like we haven't seen UK guys who are high recruits and not good pros too (see above list for a few).

Hard to hand waive that level of play and hold it to any comparison of a player who's ended up well. His numbers are worse than Diallo, who was also a high recruit and a mid 2nd round pick.

[clyde21]

Not playing well seems one.

It happens every year, there's a high school recruit who comes into the year with crazy high stock and drops. Hamidou Diallo was a 5 star recruit ranked 11th by ESPN. Then he played in college.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hamidou-diallo-11-espn-100-picks-kentucky-uconn/story?id=44624804

Edit (per Rivals):

2019: Vernon Carey was top 5. Scottie Lewis fell far enough he returned. Same for Matthew Hurt, both top 10.

2018: Top 10 included Quentin Grimes (who just now might be drafted) and Bol Bol who went mid 2nd.

2016: Harry Giles was the 2nd ranked recruit.

2015: Skal Labisierre, Cheick Diallo, Diamond Stone all top 10.

everyone's stock plummeted on this Kentucky team, not just BJ, but Jackson, Clarke and even Askew...that team was largely a mess...even Sarr who was a senior transfer from Wake Forest his numbers dropped across the board, went from shooting 54% at WF to shooting 47% at UK...sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers and look at the skill set, and in terms of scoring chops and toolset, BJ is top tier...is he raw? absolutely...will he take time? yes...but you can't teach a lot of natural scoring tools and skills he already has.

He didn't really seem to have it by any measure I can find. There's a reason his stock fell, other guys played a lot better. Happens every year. I can't see him as more than a 2nd round guy right now, and it's not like we haven't seen UK guys who are high recruits and not good pros too (see above list for a few).

Hard to hand waive that level of play and hold it to any comparison of a player who's ended up well. His numbers are worse than Diallo, who was also a high recruit and a mid 2nd round pick.

Diallo never really displayed any of the natural bb and scoring skills BJ has, he's always been more of an athlete than a bball player, BJ has actual functional NBA level tools and skills

[bondom34]

everyone's stock plummeted on this Kentucky team, not just BJ, but Jackson, Clarke and even Askew...that team was largely a mess...even Sarr who was a senior transfer from Wake Forest his numbers dropped across the board, went from shooting 54% at WF to shooting 47% at UK...sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers and look at the skill set, and in terms of scoring chops and toolset, BJ is top tier...is he raw? absolutely...will he take time? yes...but you can't teach a lot of natural scoring tools and skills he already has.

He didn't really seem to have it by any measure I can find. There's a reason his stock fell, other guys played a lot better. Happens every year. I can't see him as more than a 2nd round guy right now, and it's not like we haven't seen UK guys who are high recruits and not good pros too (see above list for a few).

Hard to hand waive that level of play and hold it to any comparison of a player who's ended up well. His numbers are worse than Diallo, who was also a high recruit and a mid 2nd round pick.

Diallo never really displayed any of the natural bb and scoring skills BJ has, he's always been more of an athlete than a bball player, BJ has actual functional NBA level tools and skills

Tools aren't really draftable if they don't resutl in anything. Ability is, and tbh scoring on sub .45 TS isn't really a scoring skillset that seems overly valuable.

I can't see any historical precedent for a player being this inefficient and just kind of bad in college who became a good pro. This isn't really a question of why his stock fell, its because he wasn't very good, and it started as soon as he started playing at a college level.

Looking at his closest advanced comparisons and they're all not overly similar but almost all 2nd rounders except Cam Reddish who was drafted for defense.

[clyde21]

Bj has the ability, we need to separate production from actual basketball skills, BJ has them, his baseline was just too low to be able to function on what ended up being a completely dysfunctional UK team this yr...but all the core skills and athletic tools are already there, just needs to continue building the ancillary skills, and that's a bet I'd be willing to take if I am a GM in the 6-10 range.

and this 2nd round talk is just wild, I'm over here talking about top10...it'd be a complete coup if he fell that far. no way will a scoring talent like BJ fall that far.

[bondom34]

He's literally not on any big board's top 10 right now with any credibility but OK.

[clyde21]

He's literally not on any big board's top 10 right now with any credibility but OK.

he is on mine, check back on it in 3 years

[bondom34]

He's literally not on any big board's top 10 right now with any credibility but OK.

he is on mine, check back on it in 3 years

OK? I mean I don't really care that much to win an online debate about a prospect, but Bol Bol went 45th and can't see NBA minutes too.

And he's currently in the 30s on both BR and ESPN and iirc Vecenie's last board. So:

no way will a scoring talent like BJ fall that far.

Seems a bit off. "No way" he falls to where most have him.

[clyde21]

He's literally not on any big board's top 10 right now with any credibility but OK.

he is on mine, check back on it in 3 years

OK? I mean I don't really care that much to win an online debate about a prospect, but Bol Bol went 45th and can't see NBA minutes too.

And he's currently in the 30s on both BR and ESPN and iirc Vecenie's last board. So

no way will a scoring talent like BJ fall that far.

Seems a bit off. "No way" he falls to where most have him.

And if you want to go back 3 years, the 2018 big board thread did not age well for you.

ooo...sick burnnn

yes, 2018 was a terrible draft for me obviously, and I have made a lot of adjustments to how I view and analyze prospects since then. welcome to 2021.

and I don't understand what you're so mad about, we disagree about Boston. you are more than welcome to agree to disagree instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

[bondom34]

he is on mine, check back on it in 3 years

OK? I mean I don't really care that much to win an online debate about a prospect, but Bol Bol went 45th and can't see NBA minutes too.

And he's currently in the 30s on both BR and ESPN and iirc Vecenie's last board. So

no way will a scoring talent like BJ fall that far.

Seems a bit off. "No way" he falls to where most have him.

And if you want to go back 3 years, the 2018 big board thread did not age well for you.

ooo...sick burnnn

yes, 2018 was a terrible draft for me obviously, and I have made a lot of adjustments to how I view and analyze prospects since then. welcome to 2021.

and I don't understand what you're so mad about, we disagree about Boston. you are more than welcome to agree to disagree instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

I'm not at this point but if you want to call people on stuff, I mean.... And FWIW, edited that last line out.

You seemed bothered enough to tell me to "check back in 3 years". I pretty well laid out that I can't find a single case of a player producing this poorly and being a top 10 prospect in his draft class. I've yet to hear an example of it, and you were the one who quoted me.

TBH I don't really care either way, but I wouldn't touch him until the 2nd round.

[clyde21]

OK? I mean I don't really care that much to win an online debate about a prospect, but Bol Bol went 45th and can't see NBA minutes too.

And he's currently in the 30s on both BR and ESPN and iirc Vecenie's last board. So



Seems a bit off. "No way" he falls to where most have him.

And if you want to go back 3 years, the 2018 big board thread did not age well for you.

ooo...sick burnnn

yes, 2018 was a terrible draft for me obviously, and I have made a lot of adjustments to how I view and analyze prospects since then. welcome to 2021.

and I don't understand what you're so mad about, we disagree about Boston. you are more than welcome to agree to disagree instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

I'm not at this point but if you want to call people on stuff, I mean.... And FWIW, edited that last line out.

You seemed bothered enough to tell me to "check back in 3 years". I pretty well laid out that I can't find a single case of a player producing this poorly and being a top 10 prospect in his draft class. I've yet to hear an example of it, and you were the one who quoted me.

TBH I don't really care either way, but I wouldn't touch him until the 2nd round.

yes, check back in 3 years...like aka when I said Dort should've been a lotto guy and then went undrafted...where are all of those 'credible' big boards now? and I'm not sure who I called out...you offended that I don't take Vecenie's big board seriously? ok...sorry?

i don't really care about them...if you want to use them as a point of reference you're more than welcome to, but to me (and just my opinion obv) it's crazy to talk about a scoring talent like BJ in the 2nd round...and if he does drop that far then I think he's gonna be a major steal for whoever gets him.

[bondom34]

ooo...sick burnnn

yes, 2018 was a terrible draft for me obviously, and I have made a lot of adjustments to how I view and analyze prospects since then. welcome to 2021.

and I don't understand what you're so mad about, we disagree about Boston. you are more than welcome to agree to disagree instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

I'm not at this point but if you want to call people on stuff, I mean.... And FWIW, edited that last line out.

You seemed bothered enough to tell me to "check back in 3 years". I pretty well laid out that I can't find a single case of a player producing this poorly and being a top 10 prospect in his draft class. I've yet to hear an example of it, and you were the one who quoted me.

TBH I don't really care either way, but I wouldn't touch him until the 2nd round.

yes, check back in 3 years...like aka when I said Dort should've been a lotto guy and then went undrafted...where are all of those 'credible' big boards now? and I'm not sure who I called out...you offended that I don't take Vecenie's big board seriously? ok...sorry?

i don't really care about them...if you want to use them as a point of reference you're more than welcome to, but to me (and just my opinion obv) it's crazy to talk about a scoring talent like BJ in the 2nd round...and if he does drop that far then I think he's gonna be a major steal for whoever gets him.

Big boards had Dort as about the same level of prospect as Boston IIRC. I know Vecenie had him around late 1st round. Just thought you seemed annoyed and got me a little as well, saying to check back in 3 years seems that way and is a bit tiresome.

I just don't see it with Boston, I can't find a precedent for a guy who's been that inefficient ending up well but as you said we will see. Agree to disagree on this one .

And plz get the Warriors to win some games I want an extra first for OKC.

[Sea2003]

I think it just depends on what factors you value when you evaluate a prospect. For me, upside is more important than production. When i see Boston, i see a dude who has all the makings of an elite scorer in the NBA. You might have a different opinion and that's fine.

[jman3134]

Most draft boards from so called experts are so laughably bad right now, it is a joke. In two months, save the results and see who has anything close to a realistic draft board. This is when the NBA teams start feeding info. Most boards are clueless until then.

As for the NBA and high upside guys, it is not outside the realm of possibility that BJ slips to the 2nd, given where some high upside guys have fallen over the years. I would cite Bol Bol as an example of this. Rj Hampton was another example to me.

As for Boston, just because it is within the realm of possibility that he slips to the 2nd, this is not to say that he should. His upside is definitely top 10 because you don't find his size/skill profile every day. My issue with him is entirely mental and why I might avoid him as a prospect if I am a team. Let's throw this season up as a serious L given his insanely bad shooting slump. Covid had a lot to do with this. Independent of the bad year, watching his high school tape way back when, he just felt like a black hole when he was not scoring. This is why I have him ranked in the 20s. He is a player who can eventually develop into a high level NBA scorer and create his own shot. He does not make anyone around him better though, and the shot selection has always been pretty bad. I would be happy with him in the 20's.

[CptCrunch]

BJ Boston is like Cam Reddish.

Their states are puke. You draft them for their tools and skillset.

My take is that BJB is a late lotto to early 20's draft and stash. Send him to the G-League for half a year, then ride the bench until end of his second year. He doesn't show promise by then, cut him loose.

No one is going to be good enough and lucky enough to draft perfectly. Every player is a measured risk and every player's development trajectory is different. Drafting with the mean trajectory is more sensible than drafting with outlier development (think Butler, Giannis) in mind (which is what many here fail to grasp)

[Sea2003]

Most draft boards from so called experts are so laughably bad right now, it is a joke. In two months, save the results and see who has anything close to a realistic draft board. This is when the NBA teams start feeding info. Most boards are clueless until then.

As for the NBA and high upside guys, it is not outside the realm of possibility that BJ slips to the 2nd, given where some high upside guys have fallen over the years. I would cite Bol Bol as an example of this. Rj Hampton was another example to me.

As for Boston, just because it is within the realm of possibility that he slips to the 2nd, this is not to say that he should. His upside is definitely top 10 because you don't find his size/skill profile every day. My issue with him is entirely mental and why I might avoid him as a prospect if I am a team. Let's throw this season up as a serious L given his insanely bad shooting slump. Covid had a lot to do with this. Independent of the bad year, watching his high school tape way back when, he just felt like a black hole when he was not scoring. This is why I have him ranked in the 20s. He is a player who can eventually develop into a high level NBA scorer and create his own shot. He does not make anyone around him better though, and the shot selection has always been pretty bad. I would be happy with him in the 20's.

Totally agree with you on your assessment of Boston. However, I think you could say the same for a lot of wing prospects like RJ, reddish, and Ingram who don't do much besides scoring. Upside IMO should be the most important factor while drafting in the lottery. A guy like Boston has a considerably higher ceiling when compared to someone like Kispert or Garza.

[MemphisX]

Regardless of how you feel about BJ Boston, having him top 10 is tough. I mean I know it is an easy thing to do to put out a big board with him there but how do you justify it really? I think he still has a very good future but when comparing him to other players that will be available that are just as young, have just as high as an upside and who were actually productive in college or overseas...I just can't see it.

[Catchall]

BJ Boston is like Cam Reddish.

Their states are puke. You draft them for their tools and skillset.

My take is that BJB is a late lotto to early 20's draft and stash. Send him to the G-League for half a year, then ride the bench until end of his second year. He doesn't show promise by then, cut him loose.

No one is going to be good enough and lucky enough to draft perfectly. Every player is a measured risk and every player's development trajectory is different. Drafting with the mean trajectory is more sensible than drafting with outlier development (think Butler, Giannis) in mind (which is what many here fail to grasp)

I could see Boston get drafted in the early - mid 20s. He's talented, but underdeveloped, a bit like RJ Hampton and Jaden McDaniels last year. However, there are a lot of guards in this draft and I'm guessing a fair number of them have gotten ahead of Boston on teams' draft boards for the time being. I think Boston could be a steal if someone gets him later than 20 or 22.

I think Josh Christopher and Boston could be in a similar range.