2018 NBA Draft

[doordoor123]

Is anyone else finding it hard to find any late 1st round guys or 2nd round guys to really fall in love with? Usually there are a few guys in every draft that I think are just legit steals and great value, but I'm just having a hard time finding that value in this class. The to closest guys for me is Tyus Battle, I like his size and athleticism, just needs to get a consistent jumper. The other guy is Svi from Kansas. Good size and solid athleticism and the dude is a sharpshooter. Right now those are the only guys that I get excited about later in this draft. I'm just so meh on this draft's depth for some reason.

I'd probably name Aaron Holiday, De'Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Josh Okogie and Sagaba Konate as guys I would really take a good look at when drafting in that range. Possibly Ajdin Penava but he's just too tough to evaluate for me.

Not sure if they have what it takes for the next level, but Sam Hauser and Kevin Huerter could potentially develop into valuable rotational pieces because of their shooting and I love me some great shooting in the NBA. Still hope for someone to educate me on them given that I haven't really seen much of them this year. Same for Killian Tillie if he can get stronger.

Do you have a list of players you consider ‘locks‘ to be drafted before the end of the first round? This might help to see which players outside of those locks are available – I'm sure there are two or three players I really like that I just happen to rank too high to name now.

I get those guys, especially my bias towards Grayson. I think Grayson has a chance to really shock people with his ability to move off the ball and his ability to shoot coming off curls and on the move in general. But even then Im not seeing a guy with tremendous value, I see him as a borderline 1st round pick so I think his value is solid.

Compared to last year and I know last year's draft was really really deep, but I mean you had guys like OG, Jarrett Allen and Hart go mid to late 20s. To me all those guys were tremendous value and thats not including guys like Semi, Bell and Brooks who all went in the 2nd round and myself and many others knew those guys values were tremendous and they had steals written all over them. Even the weak 2016 draft I liked that 20-45 group much better than this year's.

This year I just feel like picks 20-30 feel like they should be 30-40 if you get what I mean. For instance I just pulled up a random mock draft
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-a-full-60-pick-nba-mock-draft/
and most mock drafts look similar towards the end of the 1st and the start of the 2nd, the names just tend to be arranged differently. Again Grayson Allen at 27 is okay, I think his value looks a lot better at 37. Trent at 30, again value feels more like 40. Basically what Im saying is I just feel like this draft is missing that good solid mid 1st round talent and that has bumped all these later guys 10 or so picks higher than what their value feels like.

I don’t think anyone can declare if someone will be a starter or not or even have the opportunity to be given a chance. I could argue on the right team or given the opportunity, a lot of guys who have fallen out of the league could have been starters or at least contributors. The thing is that not all players fit into the current mold of the NBA, a lot of positions are already stacked with potential in the NBA because older players are playing longer and not retiring and some players just don’t get drafted/didn’t go to the right school/don’t continue to try to make it/etc.
I honestly thought Trey Burke was done in the league and he probably would have been if he wasnt on a winning team in college, if he didn’t make some clutch plays, if he wasn’t drafted high, etc. These things matter when we’re talking about players making it in the NBA.
And remember Robert Carter Jr? Played for Maryland, a lot of people had him as a first round prospect. The issue was that his position in the NBA was stacked, his team wasn’t a big tournament team, but he had great defense, was able to really get hot, etc.
Remember Mitch McGary? If it wasn’t for Michigan’s tournament run he probably wouldn’t even have been drafted. And now he’s out of the league. Of course health probably had something to do with it, but he was pretty much only given a chance because of his school.

What I’m trying to say is that when not taking everything into consideration (including which school players are going to, who is coaching them, etc), it’s hard to predict them. Where someone will be drafted isn’t how well they’ll do in the NBA, but depending on where they go they’ll have a better chance to succeed. And what we do know is that players from bigger schools that have more success have more of a chance to succeed because in the NBA those players are given more of a chance.

That’s why my big boards often differ from my mocks, because Grayson Allen is probably a first round pick, but that doesn’t mean his value should be a first round pick.

[GimmeDat]

So, Deandre Hunter. What's the chances he comes out?

[doordoor123]

So, Deandre Hunter. What's the chances he comes out?

Come draft time I think he enters. I said no earlier, but when they’re in the tournament he’s going to be one of the guys to watch. Honestly there are a bunch of players that could declare and end up being first round picks. That’s why I’m not doing another mock or big board till players declare. I really like Ty Jerome and have liked him all year too, but I’m just not sure he’ll declare. Virginia likes to keep their players 4 years so I’m not really sure all of their young players will leave.

[shakes0]

So, Deandre Hunter. What's the chances he comes out?

I doubt it. Virginia players appear to be cut from a different cloth than anyone else.

[Ruzious]

I'd probably name Aaron Holiday, De'Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Josh Okogie and Sagaba Konate as guys I would really take a good look at when drafting in that range. Possibly Ajdin Penava but he's just too tough to evaluate for me.

Not sure if they have what it takes for the next level, but Sam Hauser and Kevin Huerter could potentially develop into valuable rotational pieces because of their shooting and I love me some great shooting in the NBA. Still hope for someone to educate me on them given that I haven't really seen much of them this year. Same for Killian Tillie if he can get stronger.

Do you have a list of players you consider ‘locks‘ to be drafted before the end of the first round? This might help to see which players outside of those locks are available – I'm sure there are two or three players I really like that I just happen to rank too high to name now.

I get those guys, especially my bias towards Grayson. I think Grayson has a chance to really shock people with his ability to move off the ball and his ability to shoot coming off curls and on the move in general. But even then Im not seeing a guy with tremendous value, I see him as a borderline 1st round pick so I think his value is solid.

Compared to last year and I know last year's draft was really really deep, but I mean you had guys like OG, Jarrett Allen and Hart go mid to late 20s. To me all those guys were tremendous value and thats not including guys like Semi, Bell and Brooks who all went in the 2nd round and myself and many others knew those guys values were tremendous and they had steals written all over them. Even the weak 2016 draft I liked that 20-45 group much better than this year's.

This year I just feel like picks 20-30 feel like they should be 30-40 if you get what I mean. For instance I just pulled up a random mock draft
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-daily-a-full-60-pick-nba-mock-draft/
and most mock drafts look similar towards the end of the 1st and the start of the 2nd, the names just tend to be arranged differently. Again Grayson Allen at 27 is okay, I think his value looks a lot better at 37. Trent at 30, again value feels more like 40. Basically what Im saying is I just feel like this draft is missing that good solid mid 1st round talent and that has bumped all these later guys 10 or so picks higher than what their value feels like.

I don’t think anyone can declare if someone will be a starter or not or even have the opportunity to be given a chance. I could argue on the right team or given the opportunity, a lot of guys who have fallen out of the league could have been starters or at least contributors. The thing is that not all players fit into the current mold of the NBA, a lot of positions are already stacked with potential in the NBA because older players are playing longer and not retiring and some players just don’t get drafted/didn’t go to the right school/don’t continue to try to make it/etc.
I honestly thought Trey Burke was done in the league and he probably would have been if he wasnt on a winning team in college, if he didn’t make some clutch plays, if he wasn’t drafted high, etc. These things matter when we’re talking about players making it in the NBA.
And remember Robert Carter Jr? Played for Maryland, a lot of people had him as a first round prospect. The issue was that his position in the NBA was stacked, his team wasn’t a big tournament team, but he had great defense, was able to really get hot, etc.
Remember Mitch McGary? If it wasn’t for Michigan’s tournament run he probably wouldn’t even have been drafted. And now he’s out of the league. Of course health probably had something to do with it, but he was pretty much only given a chance because of his school.

What I’m trying to say is that when not taking everything into consideration (including which school players are going to, who is coaching them, etc), it’s hard to predict them. Where someone will be drafted isn’t how well they’ll do in the NBA, but depending on where they go they’ll have a better chance to succeed. And what we do know is that players from bigger schools that have more success have more of a chance to succeed because in the NBA those players are given more of a chance.

That’s why my big boards often differ from my mocks, because Grayson Allen is probably a first round pick, but that doesn’t mean his value should be a first round pick.

Those are players to learn from - I had them wrong. Carter and Diamond Stone were a big disappointment at MD. Part of the problem was that they were both primarily low post scorers - even though both could step out and hit jumpers - they just didn't seem interested in doing it or weren't coached up to do it. Also, both of them had weight issues and would get winded running the court - part of MD's problem was they didn't get many transition baskets with those 2. I wouldn't say either was a good defender - despite Carter having a good rep there. As NBA prospects, they were old-school type C/PF's in a league where those types of players were being replaced with quicker/faster face the basket players, and neither was an explosive athlete. I was also a McGary fan, and I think his immaturity as well as health lost it for him. And a lot of times, it comes down to how hard the prospect works. I got the impression that none of those guys were particularly hard workers.

[GimmeDat]

^I thought McGary had what it took to at least be a high level backup. It just seemed like work ethic and non-basketball 'distractions' got in the way.

[No-Man]

Carter was out of shape but was an interesting prospect and is doing well in Europe, I would not cross him off

[MrTwister]

So Croatian forward Luka Samanic might be going to Duke next season. Wasn't sure where to put it.

Read on Twitter

[Sinceday1]

Caleb Martin is a guy that gets slept on. Unfortunately he was recently injured.

https://www.a1squad.com/single-post/2018/02/06/Everything-You-Wanted-To-Know-About-Caleb-Martin-VS-Colorado-State

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.coloradoan.com/amp/330548002

It depends on what you mean as slept on. What value do you think he has and what value do you think he should have? To me he has the proper value which is borderline late 2nd rounder-undrafted. Ive seen plenty of Calen Martin from his ACC days and he is an undersized 3 that isnt the most athletic and has a shot that comes and goes. I get his shot has been good this year but I dont think anyone should expect him to be a dead eye shooter or anything like that. If he was longer and say 6'9 then I think you might be onto something. But I think you can go to most G League teams and see multiple players like Caleb Martin.

Agree 100%. Personally not a fan of him.

Doordoor123 Good stuff! Loving the feedback.

Meaning slept on in a sense that most would agree that he’s a borderline late 2nd rounder. If given a fair shot, opportunity and utilized properly he can open some eyes.

IMO, first round talent.

I see a guy that plays on both sides of the ball and has made significant improvement to his game within a year.

You’re right no one would expect him to be a dead eye shooter. Not right away at least. But we were able to get a glimpse of what he’s capable of doing.

In the league probably would be best to play him at the two.

As far as a shot that comes and goes that may have been the case for him at NC State. At Nevada, a different story. He’s been pretty consistent. Especially from long range. Putting up at least six 3ptrs per game.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m not saying I’m right. We all see the game from different perspectives and angles. At the end of the day none of us can predict the future. We just have to sit back, wait and see.

As far as his athleticism.... I think he’s pretty athletic.

Watch on YouTube

[Sinceday1]

It depends on what you mean as slept on. What value do you think he has and what value do you think he should have? To me he has the proper value which is borderline late 2nd rounder-undrafted. Ive seen plenty of Calen Martin from his ACC days and he is an undersized 3 that isnt the most athletic and has a shot that comes and goes. I get his shot has been good this year but I dont think anyone should expect him to be a dead eye shooter or anything like that. If he was longer and say 6'9 then I think you might be onto something. But I think you can go to most G League teams and see multiple players like Caleb Martin.

Agree 100%. Personally not a fan of him.

Doordoor123 Good stuff! Loving the feedback.

Meaning slept on in a sense that most would agree that he’s a borderline late 2nd rounder. If given a fair shot, opportunity and utilized properly he can open some eyes.

IMO, first round talent.

I see a guy that plays on both sides of the ball and has made significant improvement to his game within a year.

You’re right no one would expect him to be a dead eye shooter. Not right away at least. But we were able to get a glimpse of what he’s capable of doing.

In the league probably would be best to play him at the two.

As far as a shot that comes and goes that may have been the case for him at NC State. At Nevada, a different story. He’s been pretty consistent. Especially from long range. Putting up at least six 3ptrs per game.

I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m not saying I’m right. We all see the game from different perspectives and angles. At the end of the day none of us can predict the future. We just have to sit back, wait and see.

As far as his athleticism.... I think he’s pretty athletic.

Watch on YouTube

Duke4life831- Awesome feedback

[NoZoLakers]

What pick range do you guys see Mikal Bridges at? Currently lottery projected, if he doesnt look good during tournament play, could he be had in late teens to early 20s?

[916fan]

What pick range do you guys see Mikal Bridges at? Currently lottery projected, if he doesnt look good during tournament play, could he be had in late teens to early 20s?

Don't see anyway he drops that low. He's the best SG prospect in this draft.

[eminence]

Yeah, I can't see Mikal dropping that much. I've got him cleanly in the top 10.

[doordoor123]

Teams have started to figure out Sagaba Kanote’s defense. I think he should stay in college longer.

[yoyoboy]

Jaren Jackson gets called for the softest of fouls sometimes. And Izzo has really underutilized him all year.

He's going to be an awesome NBA player. I'm really hoping his lack of perceived "upside" as an offensive focal point allows him to drop to us.

[Duke4life831]

Jaren Jackson gets called for the softest of fouls sometimes. And Izzo has really underutilized him all year.

He's going to be an awesome NBA player. I'm really hoping his lack of perceived "upside" as an offensive focal point allows him to drop to us.

It has looked like he has hit a little bit of a freshmen wall over the last month. From Jan 31st game to after todays game his averages are

10/3.5/1 and 2.5 blks on 51/30/77 an 3 fouls on 19 minutes a game.

So per 40 hes still scoring and blocking shots well and still is shooting over 50% from the field. So this is not me saying hes struggling big time or I think his draft stock should fall.

But his lack of rebounding has shown and ya he gets some soft calls on him, he still commits fouls at a pretty high pace which is one of the reasons he cant stay on the floor for too long. I personally have him locked in at 6th and unless Wendell Carter just takes over March Madness I dont see anyone that can over take him at 6th. I think the fouling in the long term in the NBA wont be an issue. I still have some questions on his rebounding and Im still not quite in love with his jumpshot form, but I think they will make a few tweaks to it and that will be fine down the road.

[The-Power]

It has looked like he has hit a little bit of a freshmen wall over the last month. From Jan 31st game to after todays game his averages are

10/3.5/1 and 2.5 blks on 51/30/77 an 3 fouls on 19 minutes a game.

As far as I can see, his percentages are 69.5% on 2's, 33.5% on 3's, 54% FG and 75% on FTs during that span. Pretty efficient but the raw numbers are obviously down because of lower minutes – mainly a result of foul trouble.

edit: nevermind, forgot about the game against Michigan. Too many games in such a short timespan to keep up with it.

But his lack of rebounding has shown and ya he gets some soft calls on him, he still commits fouls at a pretty high pace which is one of the reasons he cant stay on the floor for too long.

Agreed on the fouling. Gets called for soft fouls but he's still making stupid contact way too often. Still don't see the big issue with rebounding. Over the past nine games you referred to, Michigan State got destroyed on the boards once against Indiana. In every other game, they allowed less than 10 OREB and generally speaking they are a better defensive rebounding team than a team like Duke despite Duke having two great rebounders in the middle.

I'm mentioning that to make the argument that it doesn't matter to me who gets the rebounds as long as the team gets them. Now, we can discuss rebounding techniques, boxing out, leaving guys open due to ill-advised blocking attempts – that's totally fair. But Jackson's individual rebounding numbers don't really tell us much about him as a rebounder in a team context – both the actual and different hypothetical.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I'm enticed by Jaren Jackson's length and shooting but I think players with sexy physical attributes can sometimes have their fundamentals excused more than others.

[SeattleJazzFan]

I want Khyri Thomas on the Jazz. I think he's moved himself into 15-20 range. Just has so many positives as a prospect. really the only glaring weakness being that he's not great at creating his own offense. But i think you put him next to Mitchell, in the Jazz offense, he would be lights out.

[JMac1]

I'm enticed by Jaren Jackson's length and shooting but I think players with sexy physical attributes can sometimes have their fundamentals excused more than others.

As they should, because it’s less necessary, see Shaq.