Zach Edey, 7-4

[FrodoBaggins]

Zach's interior contesting (65 games):

<6ft: 57.5% DFG (-6.2) on 5.0 DFGA
<10ft: 54.4% DFG (-5.2) on 6.3 DFGA

And those statistics steadily improved as the season went on:

October (4 games): <6ft: 73.1% DFG (+10.7) on 4.3 DFGA; <10ft: 66.7% DFG (+7.6) on 5.5 DFGA
November (8 games): <6ft: 63.3% DFG (+1.0) on 6.1 DFGA; <10ft: 56.9% DFG (-1.0) on 7.3 DFGA
December (6 games): <6ft: 51.4% DFG (-11.9) on 6.2 DFGA; <10ft: 43.1% DFG (-15.1) on 8.5 DFGA
January (14 games): <6ft: 52.4% DFG (-9.2) on 4.5 DFGA; <10ft: 52.6% DFG (-5.3) on 5.4 DFGA
February (10 games): <6ft: 61.7% DFG (-5.2) on 4.7 DFGA; <10ft: 56.1% DFG (-6.9) on 5.7 DFGA
March (15 games): <6ft: 57.1% DFG (-7.7) on 4.2 DFGA; <10ft: 57.6% DFG (-2.9) on 5.7 DFGA
April (6 games): <6ft: 50.0% DFG (-14.8) on 6.7 DFGA; <10ft: 50.0% DFG (-10.7) on 8.0 DFGA
Play-in (2 games): <6ft: 53.3% DFG (-9.9) on 7.5 DFGA; <10ft: 50.0% DFG (-10.5) on 10.0 DFGA

Last 51 games (not including play-in): >6ft: 54.8% DFG (-9.4) on 4.9 DFGA; <10ft: 52.7% DFG (-7.3) on 6.2 DFGA

Here's what other rim protectors did over that same stretch:

Clingan: >6ft: 52.5% DFG (-11.8) on 4.8 DFGA; <10ft: 51.3% DFG (-8.6) on 6.2 DFGA
Gobert: >6ft: 52.8% DFG (-10.8) on 6.5 DFGA; <10ft: 49.3% DFG (-10.2) on 8.6 DFGA
Wembanyama: >6ft: 54.3% DFG (-10.6) on 8.1 DFGA; <10ft: 52.4% DFG (-7.8) on 9.6 DFGA
Kessler: >6ft: 54.7% DFG (-9.0) on 7.6 DFGA; <10ft: 51.5% DFG (-8.1) on 8.9 DFGA
Turner: >6ft: 55.1% DFG (-8.8) on 7.0 DFGA; <10ft: 54.1% DFG (-5.6) on 8.6 DFGA
Lopez: >6ft: 58.9% DFG (-5.8) on 6.9 DFGA; <10ft: 56.1% DFG (-4.1) on 9.3 DFGA
Zubac: >6ft: 55.0% DFG (-9.4) on 6.3 DFGA; <10ft: 52.4% DFG (-7.9) on 8.4 DFGA
Holmgren: >6ft: 46.3% DFG (-17.1) on 5.5 DFGA; <10ft: 44.2% DFG (-15.7) on 6.3 DFGA
Porzingis: >6ft: 47.3% DFG (-15.9) on 6.1 DFGA; <10ft: 45.5% DFG (-13.7) on 7.4 DFGA
Poeltl: >6ft: 56.1% DFG (-7.6) on 6.2 DFGA; <10ft: 52.9% DFG (-6.5) on 8.0 DFGA
Davis: >6ft: 50.3% DFG (-13.4) on 6.0 DFGA; <10ft: 48.1% DFG (-11.4) on 7.5 DFGA
Gafford: >6ft: 47.3% DFG (-15.7) on 6.4 DFGA; <10ft: 45.8% DFG (-13.5) on 7.9 DFGA
Lively: >6ft: 58.6% DFG (-5.4) on 6.4 DFGA; <10ft: 54.2% DFG (-5.6) on 7.8 DFGA
Allen: >6ft: 57.4% DFG (-6.7) on 6.5 DFGA; <10ft: 54.5% DFG (-5.6) on 8.2 DFGA
Mobley: >6ft: 56.0% DFG (-7.1) on 6.7 DFGA; <10ft: 53.3% DFG (-5.7) on 8.8 DFGA
Sarr: >6ft: 61.2% DFG (-3.5) on 8.6 DFGA; <10ft: 59.2% DFG (-1.5) on 10.0 DFGA

I remember when people were worrying about his 60% rim DFG in college.

[JMAC3]

I think it is important to realize that there were multiple conversations going on in Zach Edey thread leading up to the draft.

The first: Edey won't be able to play in the NBA at all.

The second: Edey will be solid rotation big in NBA/maybe lowend starter.

The third: Edey is a top 2 player in the draft, will change the way the game is played

He has probably proven the first take wrong, I would agree with that. He is at least playable in most settings.

However, seeing several posters in here who had some crazy high Edey takes now trying to act like they were right because he averaged 9pts/8boards is a bit funny.

[QingJames]

I think it is important to realize that there were multiple conversations going on in Zach Edey thread leading up to the draft.

The first: Edey won't be able to play in the NBA at all.

The second: Edey will be solid rotation big in NBA/maybe lowend starter.

The third: Edey is a top 2 player in the draft, will change the way the game is played

He has probably proven the first take wrong, I would agree with that. He is at least playable in most settings.

However, seeing several posters in here who had some crazy high Edey takes now trying to act like they were right because he averaged 9pts/8boards is a bit funny.

He might still end up being a top 2 player from that horrible draft class tbh. Sarr isn’t better. Risacher probably is. Castle has been terrible, fooling folks with his raw stats because the Spurs were feeding him everything. Buzelis probably will be better than Edey. Clingan has been worse than Edey pretty indisputably.

[JMAC3]

I think it is important to realize that there were multiple conversations going on in Zach Edey thread leading up to the draft.

The first: Edey won't be able to play in the NBA at all.

The second: Edey will be solid rotation big in NBA/maybe lowend starter.

The third: Edey is a top 2 player in the draft, will change the way the game is played

He has probably proven the first take wrong, I would agree with that. He is at least playable in most settings.

However, seeing several posters in here who had some crazy high Edey takes now trying to act like they were right because he averaged 9pts/8boards is a bit funny.

He might still end up being a top 2 player from that horrible draft class tbh. Sarr isn’t better. Risacher probably is. Castle has been terrible, fooling folks with his raw stats because the Spurs were feeding him everything. Buzelis probably will be better than Edey. Clingan has been worse than Edey pretty indisputably.

Do people think Sarr at 19 is supposed to already be better than Edey at 22 coming off back to back player of the year awards? We do this every year with at least 1 player where we get all hyped up about some super old rookie and then they just never improve and the takes look really bad a few years later. Jaime Jacquez last year people thought was the next Jimmy Butler, now he doesn't even play. Add Trayce Jackson Davis, Craig Porter Jr., Chris Duarte, Malachi Flynn... I mean these are guys just in the last few years that everyone was running around high fiving as great selections and they just never got better and now are mostly afterthoughts.

but hey at least we will always have their rookie years.

[QingJames]

I think it is important to realize that there were multiple conversations going on in Zach Edey thread leading up to the draft.

The first: Edey won't be able to play in the NBA at all.

The second: Edey will be solid rotation big in NBA/maybe lowend starter.

The third: Edey is a top 2 player in the draft, will change the way the game is played

He has probably proven the first take wrong, I would agree with that. He is at least playable in most settings.

However, seeing several posters in here who had some crazy high Edey takes now trying to act like they were right because he averaged 9pts/8boards is a bit funny.

He might still end up being a top 2 player from that horrible draft class tbh. Sarr isn’t better. Risacher probably is. Castle has been terrible, fooling folks with his raw stats because the Spurs were feeding him everything. Buzelis probably will be better than Edey. Clingan has been worse than Edey pretty indisputably.

Do people think Sarr at 19 is supposed to already be better than Edey at 22 coming off back to back player of the year awards? We do this every year with at least 1 player where we get all hyped up about some super old rookie and then they just never improve and the takes look really bad a few years later. Jaime Jacquez last year people thought was the next Jimmy Butler, now he doesn't even play. Add Trayce Jackson Davis, Craig Porter Jr., Chris Duarte, Malachi Flynn... I mean these are guys just in the last few years that everyone was running around high fiving as great selections and they just never got better and now are mostly afterthoughts.

but hey at least we will always have their rookie years.

I’m pretty high on Sarr given what we’ve seen from him in terms of his defensive skillset this year, but there’s no denying he has an incredibly long way to go to be a positive impact player because he’s maybe pound-for-pound the worst finisher in the league at his size.

Saying Edey still has a chance to end up as a top 2 guy from his draft is far more of an indictment on the draft than lavishing praise on Edey. The draft class is just terrible.

[nate33]

Do people think Sarr at 19 is supposed to already be better than Edey at 22 coming off back to back player of the year awards? We do this every year with at least 1 player where we get all hyped up about some super old rookie and then they just never improve and the takes look really bad a few years later. Jaime Jacquez last year people thought was the next Jimmy Butler, now he doesn't even play. Add Trayce Jackson Davis, Craig Porter Jr., Chris Duarte, Malachi Flynn... I mean these are guys just in the last few years that everyone was running around high fiving as great selections and they just never got better and now are mostly afterthoughts.

but hey at least we will always have their rookie years.

This is a fair point, but there are plenty of examples at the other end of the spectrum too. In the past few years, several 22-year-olds types were drafted and ended up significantly outperforming their draft position. A couple of examples:

Desmond Bane (#30)
Payton Prichard (#26)
Nick Richards (#42)
Sam Merrill (#60)
Herbert Jones (#35)
Aaron Wiggins (#55)
Andrew Nembhard (#31)
Toumani Camara (#52)

I'm not sure if we can fairly argue that there is a real pattern one way or the other.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think it is important to realize that there were multiple conversations going on in Zach Edey thread leading up to the draft.

The first: Edey won't be able to play in the NBA at all.

The second: Edey will be solid rotation big in NBA/maybe lowend starter.

The third: Edey is a top 2 player in the draft, will change the way the game is played

He has probably proven the first take wrong, I would agree with that. He is at least playable in most settings.

However, seeing several posters in here who had some crazy high Edey takes now trying to act like they were right because he averaged 9pts/8boards is a bit funny.

He might still end up being a top 2 player from that horrible draft class tbh. Sarr isn’t better. Risacher probably is. Castle has been terrible, fooling folks with his raw stats because the Spurs were feeding him everything. Buzelis probably will be better than Edey. Clingan has been worse than Edey pretty indisputably.

oh brother

I'm fairly confident there will be a lottery's worth plus of players that end up better than Edey. He's not even top 5 NOW ffs so it takes a ridiculous leap to assume he might be top 2 especially considering how little this class has played due to injuries and landing spots.

[JMAC3]

Is anyone taking Edey #1 in a redraft? Top 3? Top 5?

I base my retrospective scouting, i.e redrafts, on VORP to remove eye test bias and top 5-7 seems fine to me. He’ll finish 1st or 2nd this season in the class, and there aren’t many names outside of Ware and McCain who are really moving me to shift him down 5+ spots

Vorp is fine after 5+ yrs into a career, but trying to make a case for Edey being good based on 1400 mins is just a bad process.
Castle and Risacher are 42nd and 44th in VORP among rookies this year and are going to win ROY.

[ItsDanger]

The constant goalpost moving is embarrassing. People thought he was a bust and unplayable in NBA. You were wrong.

[The Moose]

Is anyone taking Edey #1 in a redraft? Top 3? Top 5?

I base my retrospective scouting, i.e redrafts, on VORP to remove eye test bias and top 5-7 seems fine to me. He’ll finish 1st or 2nd this season in the class, and there aren’t many names outside of Ware and McCain who are really moving me to shift him down 5+ spots

Vorp is fine after 5+ yrs into a career, but trying to make a case for Edey being good based on 1400 mins is just a bad process.
Castle and Risacher are 42nd and 44th in VORP among rookies this year and are going to win ROY.

Let me know how many rookies led the class in VORP after their rookie seasons that then fell are outside of the top 7 in VORP after 5 years

It’s a very low number

[JMAC3]

I base my retrospective scouting, i.e redrafts, on VORP to remove eye test bias and top 5-7 seems fine to me. He’ll finish 1st or 2nd this season in the class, and there aren’t many names outside of Ware and McCain who are really moving me to shift him down 5+ spots

Vorp is fine after 5+ yrs into a career, but trying to make a case for Edey being good based on 1400 mins is just a bad process.
Castle and Risacher are 42nd and 44th in VORP among rookies this year and are going to win ROY.

Let me know how many rookies led the class in VORP after their rookie seasons that then fell are outside of the top 7 in VORP after 5 years

It’s a very low number

Zach Edey 0.7 Vorp as a rookie.
Trayce Jackson Davis 1.4 VORP as rookie.
Brandon Clarke 1.7 VORP as a rookie.
Jordan Bell 1.0 VORP as a rookie.

All stand out without spending more than 3 mins looking as older bigs who had okay rookie VORPs. I really don't care if Edey lead rookies, it was a terrible rookie class, everyone knew, knows it. Overall his VORP is very mid, especially again for an older player, which is pretty common for them to peak early and not improve as often.

[NO-KG-AI]

Ooo bro, you said this was a bad rookie class… be prepared