2023 NBA Draft

[Chuck Everett]

If I'm the Mavs, I would take Dereck Lively II. They need a rim protector and rim runner.

[MemphisX]

So, what to people think of Bobi Klintman? Amazingly fluid for his size, U19 tape is interesting, Wake Forest season a bit disappointing.

Just does not have the athletic pop for me to be all in on him.

[BlazersBroncos]

So, what to people think of Bobi Klintman? Amazingly fluid for his size, U19 tape is interesting, Wake Forest season a bit disappointing.

Just does not have the athletic pop for me to be all in on him.

Reminds me a ton of Zeke Nnaji.

[cupcakesnake]

Does anyone else think the lack of shooting at the top of this draft might produce some unpredictable results?

There are 4 really questionable shooters near the top of this draft: Scoot, the Twins, and Anthony Black. Orlando and Detroit probably want to avoid taking on another bad shooter. Miller and Dick are the only awesome shooters. Hendricks had a very good year shooting the ball. The rest of the top 10ish guys project as solid-ish.

Depending on where these teams land in the lotto, I could see it shaking things up a bit by maybe locking Brandon Miller into the 2 spot, or seeing Gradey Dick or Taylor Hendricks rising up a few more spots than expected.

[Hal14]

Does anyone else think the lack of shooting at the top of this draft might produce some unpredictable results?

There are 4 really questionable shooters near the top of this draft: Scoot, the Twins, and Anthony Black. Orlando and Detroit probably want to avoid taking on another bad shooter. Miller and Dick are the only awesome shooters. Hendricks had a very good year shooting the ball. The rest of the top 10ish guys project as solid-ish.

Depending on where these teams land in the lotto, I could see it shaking things up a bit by maybe locking Brandon Miller into the 2 spot, or seeing Gradey Dick or Taylor Hendricks rising up a few more spots than expected.

There's more to basketball than shooting.

Look how high guys like Sochan, Dyson Daniels, Giddey and Barnes went. All were questionable shooters.

Paolo wasn't a great shooter in college, neither was Suggs. Kuminga had shooting concerns, etc.

[cupcakesnake]

Does anyone else think the lack of shooting at the top of this draft might produce some unpredictable results?

There are 4 really questionable shooters near the top of this draft: Scoot, the Twins, and Anthony Black. Orlando and Detroit probably want to avoid taking on another bad shooter. Miller and Dick are the only awesome shooters. Hendricks had a very good year shooting the ball. The rest of the top 10ish guys project as solid-ish.

Depending on where these teams land in the lotto, I could see it shaking things up a bit by maybe locking Brandon Miller into the 2 spot, or seeing Gradey Dick or Taylor Hendricks rising up a few more spots than expected.

There's more to basketball than shooting.

Look how high guys like Sochan, Dyson Daniels, Giddey and Barnes went. All were questionable shooters.

Paolo wasn't a great shooter in college, neither was Suggs. Kuminga had shooting concerns, etc.

I didn't say that shooting was everything. A lot of my favorite NBA players aren't great shooters.

I'm wondering if it could influence a couple teams at the top. Orlando has a lot of guards who can't shoot (Suggs and Fultz), which makes it pretty difficult to build out an offense around Paolo. If they drafted one of the poor shooter in the draft, they could end up having a hard time putting out lineups that feature all their young talent.

Detroit wants Cade and Ivey to thrive, which might be hard if they add another big-minute young guy who can't shoot. That roster already has a ton of poor shooting bigs they want to find minutes for.

NBA teams tend to prioritize potential over fit, as they should, but awkward roster fits can come back to haunt you.

[clyde21]

Does anyone else think the lack of shooting at the top of this draft might produce some unpredictable results?

There are 4 really questionable shooters near the top of this draft: Scoot, the Twins, and Anthony Black. Orlando and Detroit probably want to avoid taking on another bad shooter. Miller and Dick are the only awesome shooters. Hendricks had a very good year shooting the ball. The rest of the top 10ish guys project as solid-ish.

Depending on where these teams land in the lotto, I could see it shaking things up a bit by maybe locking Brandon Miller into the 2 spot, or seeing Gradey Dick or Taylor Hendricks rising up a few more spots than expected.

i think the shooting concerns for Scoot/Black are overblown tbh...

also that seems to be true for every draft, you're just not gonna find a lot of elite shooters coming out at the top of the draft and typically the elite shooters are more specialized like Hawkins and Dick

[clyde21]

who's the best shooter to be drafted top 5 in the last 5 drafts? maybe Cade? or maybe you'll have to go back to Trae back in 2018. otherwise you can go down the last and you'll see great shooters are rarely ever taken in the top 5. at this level the shooters are usually the role players.

[Hal14]

who's the best shooter to be drafted top 5 in the last 5 drafts? maybe Cade? or maybe you'll have to go back to Trae back in 2018. otherwise you can go down the last and you'll see great shooters are rarely ever taken in the top 5. at this level the shooters are usually the role players.

Jabari Smith, probably.

And he only shot 30% from 3 this year. That just shows to not take a guy super high, if most of their perceived value is their shooting - because being an elite shooter in the NBA is different than being an elite shooter in college. Deeper 3 pt line in NBA, bigger, more athletic defenders. And Jabari only had a 1 year sample size as an elite shooter - that's not very much.

A guy is a better bet to be an elite shooter in the NBA if he's proven to be an elite shooter for 3-4 yrs in college. But of course, if he is playing 3-4 yrs in college, there's probably other holes in his game or flaws that will cause him to go later in the draft than top 5..

[clyde21]

final pre combine rankings, usually these are pretty much what they are gonna look like the rest of the way unless a major shake up at combine/workouts etc.

---

1 Victor Wembanyama

2 Scoot Henderson
3 Anthony Black

4 Keyonte George
5 Cam Whitmore
6 Jarace Walker
7 Taylor Hendricks
8 Ausar Thompson
9 Cason Wallace
10 Brandon Miller
11 Amen Thompson
12 Gradey Dick
13 Jordan Hawkins
14 Jalen Hood-Schifino

15 Nick Smith Jr.
16 Rayan Rupert
17 Julian Phillips
18 Ricky Council
19 Bilal Coulibaly
20 Andre Jackson Jr.
21 Dariq Whitehead
22 Judah Mintz
23 Kobe Bufkin
24 Trey Alexander
25 DaRon Holmes
26 Brice Sensabaugh
27 GG Jackson
28 Jett Howard
29 Kris Murray
30 Brandin Podziemski

[cupcakesnake]

who's the best shooter to be drafted top 5 in the last 5 drafts? maybe Cade? or maybe you'll have to go back to Trae back in 2018. otherwise you can go down the last and you'll see great shooters are rarely ever taken in the top 5. at this level the shooters are usually the role players.

Yeah I think you're right about this. I'm maybe overindexing on Orlando and Detroit and just terrified for everyone involved that they'll draft a guy that makes their already difficult lineups even more difficult.

Last year Chet, Jabari, and Keegan all projected as strong shooters. But looking back at the last couple drafts there really are plenty of guys who projected as bad shooters. Zion/Ja/RJ, Mobley/Barnes/Suggs.

Luka/Trae/JJJ (I also had MPJ high on my board that year) was probably the last draft that had a lot of shooting at the top. But that draft also had Ayton and Bagley at the top.

[cupcakesnake]

i think the shooting concerns for Scoot/Black are overblown tbh...

I don't think Scoot has shooting "concerns" really, but he not coming into the NBA as a good shooter.

Anthony Black is interesting. He very clearly has super nice touch, which is by far the most important natural skill to have in terms of shooting. The jumper does not look good at all right now and it's clear he doesn't feel the same confidence when shooting a jumper as he does doing almost everything else. He's got that hitch where he sort of hesitates instead of dipping the ball and then just looks awkward. But I can easily picture Black fixing that jumper.

[SeattleJazzFan]

i think the shooting concerns for Scoot/Black are overblown tbh...

I don't think Scoot has shooting "concerns" really, but he not coming into the NBA as a good shooter.

Anthony Black is interesting. He very clearly has super nice touch, which is by far the most important natural skill to have in terms of shooting. The jumper does not look good at all right now and it's clear he doesn't feel the same confidence when shooting a jumper as he does doing almost everything else. He's got that hitch where he sort of hesitates instead of dipping the ball and then just looks awkward. But I can easily picture Black fixing that jumper.

scoot shot sub 30% from three in the g league. his shooting is absolutely a concern.

[clyde21]

i think the shooting concerns for Scoot/Black are overblown tbh...

I don't think Scoot has shooting "concerns" really, but he not coming into the NBA as a good shooter.

Anthony Black is interesting. He very clearly has super nice touch, which is by far the most important natural skill to have in terms of shooting. The jumper does not look good at all right now and it's clear he doesn't feel the same confidence when shooting a jumper as he does doing almost everything else. He's got that hitch where he sort of hesitates instead of dipping the ball and then just looks awkward. But I can easily picture Black fixing that jumper.

scoot shot sub 30% from three in the g league. his shooting is absolutely a concern.

he shot 33% this season from 3

[EvanZ]

He shot 30% on all 3s combined (regular season + showcase + exhibition):

https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/h/hendesc01d.html

Anyone can look this stuff up.

[LofJ]

The G-league uses the same 3 point distance as the NBA, which is over a foot longer than the NCAA distance. 30% in the g-league is significantly better than 30% in the NCAA.

I'm also pretty sure Clyde has pointed out several times that the g-league only shoots one free throw in all situations for the first 46 minutes. That lowers scoring efficiency, not only because you're shooting just one free throw, but also because players are significantly more likely to make their 2nd free throw.

https://www.breakthroughbasketball.com/fundamentals/free-throw-nash.html

When you're evaluating stats you HAVE to take context into account. If you don't it's akin to proclaiming someone an overrated shooter when they started off strong, but then injured their wrist and their percentages fell off. You can't make effective valuations when you're looking at an incomplete set of criteria.

[ItsDanger]

Scoot shot 14 of 51 from 3 in G league. If he shot 17 of 51, nobody would be saying anything. The sample size is WAY too small to conclude anything. That's similar to many college guys especially freshmen.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Scoot shot 14 of 51 from 3 in G league. If he shot 17 of 51, nobody would be saying anything. The sample size is WAY too small to conclude anything. That's similar to many college guys especially freshmen.

that fact he only shot 51 threes on the season makes the shooting even more of a concern. you could be a bit more confident in his shooting if he were shooting 33% on 6 or 7 attemp per. but when he's taking 2 threes a game, you have no idea if he is a legit long range shooter. at only 2 attempts per game, he's picking his spots and pretty much only taking great shots from out there.

anybody who doesn't think shooting is a concern with scoot has their head buried in the sand. and that doesn't mean he won't figure it out and become a respectable shooter, but good grief - it is absolutely a concern for him at this point in time.

[ItsDanger]

Scoot shot 14 of 51 from 3 in G league. If he shot 17 of 51, nobody would be saying anything. The sample size is WAY too small to conclude anything. That's similar to many college guys especially freshmen.

that fact he only shot 51 threes on the season makes the shooting even more of a concern. you could be a bit more confident in his shooting if he were shooting 33% on 6 or 7 attemp per. but when he's taking 2 threes a game, you have no idea if he is a legit long range shooter. at only 2 attempts per game, he's picking his spots and pretty much only taking great shots from out there.

anybody who doesn't think shooting is a concern with scoot has their head buried in the sand. and that doesn't mean he won't figure it out and become a respectable shooter, but good grief - it is absolutely a concern for him.

The point is, you don't have enough info to make any conclusion. Head in the sand? That's what workouts are for.

[Hal14]

Scoot shot 14 of 51 from 3 in G league. If he shot 17 of 51, nobody would be saying anything. The sample size is WAY too small to conclude anything. That's similar to many college guys especially freshmen.

College guys who can't shoot.

The volume being that low is part of the concern. IDK what the success rate is of PG's 6'2" and under who shot less than 3 threes per game and 33% or under from 3 during the season before getting drafted but it's probably not good (especially if we just look at players drafted in the past 10 years).

I imagine these types of players don't typically go in the top 3 of the draft.