Lauri Markkanen - How high can he go in the draft?

[Ruzious]

19 year old 7 ft'ers aren't supposed to do these things.

That's the thing. At his age, he's an incredible offensive player. He's much more fluid than Olynyk, and Olynyk was 3 years older when he played that well. He plays like he's a step ahead of everyone else. I want defense first from my bigs, but he's so good offensively that I'd make an exception for him - hoping he can develop enough muscle to handle playing center - which I think he can.

[GimmeDat]

He's super impressive for his age, no doubt about that, but does that suggest that his ceiling is higher as a result? I'm not sure about that. Things like physical limitations aren't age dependent (not to suggest that he's a massively under-athletic player, btw).

I just see a Ryan Anderson type guy that is a knock-down shooter with a bit of versatility, but not necessarily a top 3 option on a team.

That's still a very important piece to a team, but I think he's accurately ranked in that 10-ish range.

[Duke4life831]

He's super impressive for his age, no doubt about that, but does that suggest that his ceiling is higher as a result? I'm not sure about that. Things like physical limitations aren't age dependent (not to suggest that he's a massively under-athletic player, btw).

I just see a Ryan Anderson type guy that is a knock-down shooter with a bit of versatility, but not necessarily a top 3 option on a team.

That's still a very important piece to a team, but I think he's accurately ranked in that 10-ish range.

I agree with this. Dont draft him hoping he can be the face of your franchise or anything like that, he doesnt have that potential. But if you can pair him with a top end rim protecting big that will erase a lot of his deficiencies on defense. Offensively the dude can be a legit weapon. I think it all depends on what he can add offensively, if he doesnt really add much to his skill set he can be a damn good solid stretch 4 that can hit 3s. If, its a big if, if he can add a nice little turn around jumper from the post and mid range he can be an all star and a really solid #2 on a team.

[Ruzious]

He's super impressive for his age, no doubt about that, but does that suggest that his ceiling is higher as a result? I'm not sure about that. Things like physical limitations aren't age dependent (not to suggest that he's a massively under-athletic player, btw).

I just see a Ryan Anderson type guy that is a knock-down shooter with a bit of versatility, but not necessarily a top 3 option on a team.

That's still a very important piece to a team, but I think he's accurately ranked in that 10-ish range.

Well, Anderson before 2014 was a really good player. He hasn't been since then. So, if you're comparing him to the pre 2014 Anderson, that's comparing him to a very good player - and Markkanen is a good 2 inches taller and I think has the frame to fill out and be a bigger guy than Anderson. And he looks to me to be a more fluid athlete who will get up and down the court faster, handle better, and finish better - though I don't expect he'll be quite the 3 point shooter that Anderson has been. Anderson's primarily a jump shooter, and I see Markkanen being able to score in more ways. But your 10ish range could end up right - because of defensive concerns and questions about him being a tweener.

[Upperclass]

He looks an awful lot like Ryan Anderson to me. Not that its a bad thing..

[No-Man]

He is more mobile than Anderson, a significant worse rebounder and post defender, weaker overall, gets steamrolled often on the boards, and a worse passer.
I think as a shooter he is an all timer for his age and size, ahead of basically any comparison out there, but comparing him to Ryno is just lazy.
Whereas Anderson has to play as a PF with a defensive big because he can't move, even though he is okay at trying and at least been there and make his rotations even if he gets beaten, and needs somebody to cover for him, Lauri can theoretically if he gets with time the IQ on D, work as a C in a switch heavy system because he can move, you are probably going to struggle against post-up heavy bigs, but those guys would have to guard Lauri on the other side and 3>2, so I am not too worried there, and you might lack rim protection but theoretically if every piece of your switching defense is locked it should be quite doable, rebounding is the biggest area of concern with Lauri but if he can improve his strength level to be okay rebounding without losing mobility and learns the nuances of the big man play, improving as a screener and all that, he's workable as a C which holds much more value than a stretch PF as a supersized wing.

[DirtyDez]

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[GimmeDat]

I should clarify that I see him on a Ryan Anderson tier, not necessarily that they're identical players. The biggest difference to me is physically - he's taller and more mobile, and that will help him on both ends of the floor.

If he can become an average defender/boarder, he's going to be super valuable.

[No-Man]

I should clarify that I see him on a Ryan Anderson tier, not necessarily that they're identical players. The biggest difference to me is physically - he's taller and more mobile, and that will help him on both ends of the floor.

If he can become an average defender/boarder, he's going to be super valuable.

I fully expect him to be an okay team defender, just not a +, and normally you need that from your bigs unless you have a superbalanced defensive team, the boards and the passing/on ball ability are my main question marks with him, he is not truly awful at either, just not good enough.
basically if he isnt a justifiable starting big his value goes down a big deal for me.

[DirtyDez]

16/13 on the night. 4/7 from 3 now over 50% on the season.

With Trier back he'll be getting better looks.

[bigpimpatl]

I'm pretty sold on LM. A 7fter that can move quickly, spot up, curl off screens, pick-and-pop, step backs, move without the ball, initiate pick and roll, all based around his ability to shoot the ball so well. He's very skilled. How many guys do we know at his size that can do all that? I think he'll be the best player in this draft.

[916fan]

I'm pretty sold on LM. A 7fter that can move quickly, spot up, curl off screens, pick-and-pop, step backs, move without the ball, initiate pick and roll, all based around his ability to shoot the ball so well. He's very skilled. How many guys do we know at his size that can do all that? I think he'll be the best player in this draft.

He has a nice size with amazing shooting skills, but I don't think he ends up being the best player in this draft... far from it. I think his ceiling is probably a #3 off-ball scorer.

He doesn't have a kill instinct to ever become a #1 scorer. He's been extremely inconsistent lately, here's his last 5 games:
vs. Cal 1-5 5pts 4rebs
vs. Stanford 2-9 8pts 3rebs
vs. Oregon 1-5 4pts 3rebs
vs. Oregon St 1-6 8pts 9rebs
vs. Washington 4-8 12pts 6rebs

I see him becoming a Channing Frye type of player. I just don't see his high upside. Inconsistent and soft. On defense, he's not a rim protector... his blocks are terrible. How do you play 30mins/game, but only average 0.4blks?

There are more PFs and Cs with higher potentials.

[bigpimpatl]

I'm pretty sold on LM. A 7fter that can move quickly, spot up, curl off screens, pick-and-pop, step backs, move without the ball, initiate pick and roll, all based around his ability to shoot the ball so well. He's very skilled. How many guys do we know at his size that can do all that? I think he'll be the best player in this draft.

He has a nice size with amazing shooting skills, but I don't think he ends up being the best player in this draft... far from it. I think his ceiling is probably a #3 off-ball scorer.

He doesn't have a kill instinct to ever become a #1 scorer. He's been extremely inconsistent lately, here's his last 5 games:
vs. Cal 1-5 5pts 4rebs
vs. Stanford 2-9 8pts 3rebs
vs. Oregon 1-5 4pts 3rebs
vs. Oregon St 1-6 8pts 9rebs
vs. Washington 4-8 12pts 6rebs

I see him becoming a Channing Frye type of player. I just don't see his high upside. Inconsistent and soft. On defense, he's not a rim protector... his blocks are terrible. How do you play 30mins/game, but only average 0.4blks?

There are more PFs and Cs with higher potentials.

I agree his last 5 games he hasn't been good. He's in a shooting slump and his whole offensive game is predicated around that skill. But unless he suddenly forgot how to shoot he should be back to normal.

The Channing Frye comparison is very underwhelming! Frye can't initiate a pick and roll, doesn't have the quickness or ballhandling skills either. If you believe DX predraft measurements LM is 10lbs lighter and 2" taller than Frye was (6'10"). I think a better comparison is a faster version of Frank Kaminsky as a floor. That's pretty good when you consider LM is 19 (20 in a few months) while Kaminsky was 22 when drafted. LM will see the floor from day one because of his shooting (defenses will have to respect it too). That automatically gives him time to improve on other aspects while still helping his team. That's the upside I'm seeing.

[DirtyDez]

I predicted Trier being back would open things up but he's shown significant regression. Since AT's return he's attempting 3 two pt shots per game and like everyone said just camping out from 3.

Teams are primarily playing zone forcing him to dribble drive but he's hesitant to do so even though his handle his solid for a 7ft. His lack of vision hurts when he flashes to the FT but Miller said they'll continue to work him there so he's more comfortable by March. Offense is tough to watch with all the ISO ball due to not having a PG. Miller cleans up recruiting every position except that.

[RipCity71252]

I've been pretty down on Markannen all season. I'm not worried about the shot at all, but he's getting exposed in space routinely and might be the slowest big end to end in this draft. I think that keeps him from playing anything but the 5 and I don't see an avenue where he's not below average defensively at that position. I think the only saving grace here would be for him to bulk up to 250 or so and be a guy that can execute a scheme and hold his position, but I worry how that will further hinder his ability to run the floor and guard space/pnr. Another worry would be losing some of his versatility as a shooter and off the dribble potential, the latter of which I'm already wary of.

I just hope a team like my Blazers doesn't misevaluate him and think he's Dirk-lite and can be a stretch 4.

[madmaxmedia]

It's interesting, I think the only way you get a legit Dirk Nowitzki type is if you combine the best attributes of Markannen and TJ Leaf.

I haven't looked at the box score yet, but Leaf looked more impressive than Markannen last night playing against each other. Markannen is an excellent college player with some great skills, but looks so much more mechanical than Leaf, who just seems like such a natural basketball player. OTOH Leaf needs to get a lot stronger to play the 4 in the NBA. If he adds that strength and bulk though, I think Leaf will be very effective. I think Markannen needs to be a 5 in the NBA.

I think Markannen has a high floor, but lower ceiling than Leaf. That being said, who knows in 5 years Markannen could be an excellent scorer in the NBA (just no Dirk Nowitzki).

[doordoor123]

It's interesting, I think the only way you get a legit Dirk Nowitzki type is if you combine the best attributes of Markannen and TJ Leaf.

I haven't looked at the box score yet, but Leaf looked more impressive than Markannen last night playing against each other. Markannen is an excellent college player with some great skills, but looks so much more mechanical than Leaf, who just seems like such a natural basketball player. OTOH Leaf needs to get a lot stronger to play the 4 in the NBA. If he adds that strength and bulk though, I think Leaf will be very effective. I think Markannen needs to be a 5 in the NBA.

I think Markannen has a high floor, but lower ceiling than Leaf. That being said, who knows in 5 years Markannen could be an excellent scorer in the NBA (just no Dirk Nowitzki).

I know this is a Markkanen thread, but I think you're right about Leaf. Yeah, I get he's a liability on defense, but look at what Jokic has been doing offensively. If Leaf can pass like that, stretch the floor, create his shot off the dribble and post up he's going to make a team very good. Leaf has bounce when he plays and his movements are fluid. I wouldn't say the same about Markkanen, but I also wouldn't say it's a huge detriment to Markkanen's game. When Dirk first came into the league I thought the same thing about him, but even Dirk had a better center of gravity. That's what I'm afraid of with Markkanen. He plays on his toes a lot, doesn't get down low enough and tries to jump over guys for rebounds instead of looking to box out.

[reanimator]

I think Markkanen is a much better shooter with more ability off the bounce than Leaf. Leaf doesn't shoot high volume of 3s, is a plodder, and doesn't show creativity as a ball handler. Leaf has some verticality and is fairly crafty but I don't see the hype.

[madmaxmedia]

I think Markkanen is a much better shooter with more ability off the bounce than Leaf. Leaf doesn't shoot high volume of 3s, is a plodder, and doesn't show creativity as a ball handler. Leaf has some verticality and is fairly crafty but I don't see the hype.

They're both mid-lottery prospects and on roughly comparable level IMO, I brought Leaf up because they're both highly regarded Pac-10 freshman bigs. I have seen Leaf a lot more than Markannen, so really need to see more of Markannen.

I think Leaf is the more fluid and 'natural' basketball player at this point. But that may actually change over the course of their NBA futures- if Markannen develops a really good feel for the game, he has more size and is a better shooter. Leaf can do many things at different spots on the floor and has a very nice shooting touch himself (to the tune of 63% FG and 46% from 3), OTOH so did Adam Morrison in college.

I think they are both nice NBA prospects, if you bring them along the right way and don't oversell them and expect too much early. That seems to be the way of things now though, 20 years ago they probably both would've developed into really dominant college players by their junior years.

[SaintofKillers]

Stretch 4. He is shooting over 43% from 3. Also a solid rebounder. 7 footer but not a good shot blocker. For an 18 year old 7 footer he has quite a bit of muscle too and is a tough player.

I just think he's to slow to defend the 4 and he can't defend the 5 for sure. If he can't defend at all, how much value does he have?

How much value did Dirk have?

Dirk's deficiencies as a defender tends to get overblown by many. For one, he had a long wingspan and he used it to be a very good weakside shot blocker and stripping drives - averaged more than a steal and block a game his early years. He also was adept at keeping smaller players in front of him so we allowed switching a lot and I've rarely seen him get beat until he was super old already.

His weaknesses was he was slow and undisciplined at attacking closeouts... which posed problems when teams had the idea of putting their SFs at the 4 (see Turkoglu and Jackson) and he tends to play soft when his man gets deep post position. But overall, he's an above average defender.