Ben Saraf

[Hal14]

I look at the shot at the :52 mark here and I think it looks fine:

Watch on YouTube

The release is maybe a tad slow. But if you freeze frame it right at :52 as he catches the pass, he is sooooo wide open that he knew he could take his time with this one since there was no defender nearby.

But in terms of the form, that's just how lefties shoot, often times.

In the same video, the form looks fine at 2:39 on the step back 3..

[BlazersBroncos]

I have only seen highlights of all 3 of these guys but from them I see nothing that shows Traore or Gonzalez as a better prospect than this kid. Honestly going off just highlight scouting I like what I see from Saraf more than those 2.

Love the frame for his age, love the herky-jerkey style he uses to get to the rim and create space, surprising to see a guy with such developed herkey/jerkey style also have the athleticism to finish strong with a dunk (I think many guys that develop that nice speed adjustment style are compensating for lack of athleticism - Saraf seems to both have that style of gameplay but also be a good athlete). Shot seems workable, nothing that screams broken. Great vision, excellent handle for his size + age.

Really like this kid. Again, only seen highlights but off that I have to say he is the closest prospect I have seen that even begins to make me think 'Manu'. The combo of athleticism, height, how he plays with angles / change of speed to make space, + passer. No idea on his defense but the SPG is attractive (Granted raw steals / blocks are not really an indicator of a good defender in a absolute way but they also can be signs).

Excited to keep an eye on him.

[babyjax13]

Idk man. I look at the shot at the :52 mark here and I think it looks fine:

Watch on YouTube

The release is maybe a tad slow. But if you freeze frame it right at :52 as he catches the pass, he is sooooo wide open that he knew he could take his time with this one since there was no defender nearby.

But in terms of the form, that's just how lefties shoot, often times.

I disagree. He slingshots it instead of getting his legs under him for the shot. He has a slow release.

[lambchop]

I don't really believe in the shot. I've only watched him play in the Spain game

I'd suggest watching him play more before making such conclusive claims like this.

I wouldn't say he's an elite shooter (very rate for anyone to be a truly elite shooter at such a young age..just turned 18). But he seems to be pretty good at hitting shots off the catch or off the dribble.

He shot 39/29/69 last year
32% from 3 in Adidas nextgen
Splits in U18 are by far the best for him, he shot 36% from 3 and I think some of that was just being on the lucky side of variance.

I'm not saying he can't improve as a shooter, but I've now watched the Serbia game, too, and I'll catch more. Maybe my mind will change, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that he is even an average shooter for his position as a prospect at the moment. Young players improve rapidly, though, so that could change.

To be fair, many European players struggle with shooting percentages at a young age. Let's take Bogdan Bogdanovic as an example.

His shooting splits were 31/20/73 at ANGT.

At U18 Eurobasket he shot 34/27/56.

Those are abysmal shooting percentages.

Even at age 21 playing for Partizan he shot 36/26/94. Those free throws were the only indication that there was potential for him to be somewhat consistent.

Jokic at age 18 shot 52/22/67

[babyjax13]

I'd suggest watching him play more before making such conclusive claims like this.

I wouldn't say he's an elite shooter (very rate for anyone to be a truly elite shooter at such a young age..just turned 18). But he seems to be pretty good at hitting shots off the catch or off the dribble.

He shot 39/29/69 last year
32% from 3 in Adidas nextgen
Splits in U18 are by far the best for him, he shot 36% from 3 and I think some of that was just being on the lucky side of variance.

I'm not saying he can't improve as a shooter, but I've now watched the Serbia game, too, and I'll catch more. Maybe my mind will change, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that he is even an average shooter for his position as a prospect at the moment. Young players improve rapidly, though, so that could change.

To be fair, many European players struggle with shooting percentages at a young age. Let's take Bogdan Bogdanovic as an example.

His shooting splits were 31/20/73 at ANGT.

At U18 Eurobasket he shot 34/27/56.

Those are abysmal shooting percentages.

Even at age 21 playing for Partizan he shot 36/26/94. Those free throws were the only indication that there was potential for him to be somewhat consistent.

Jokic at age 18 shot 52/22/67

Already pointed out and I've not disagreed. I've expressed concern about the form and pointed at percentages to support that, rather than pointed at percentages to say he is a bad shooter. Given his touch in other areas of his game, I think it is quite likely he improves, but at the moment this is a weakness.

[Hal14]

He shot 39/29/69 last year
32% from 3 in Adidas nextgen
Splits in U18 are by far the best for him, he shot 36% from 3 and I think some of that was just being on the lucky side of variance.

I'm not saying he can't improve as a shooter, but I've now watched the Serbia game, too, and I'll catch more. Maybe my mind will change, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that he is even an average shooter for his position as a prospect at the moment. Young players improve rapidly, though, so that could change.

To be fair, many European players struggle with shooting percentages at a young age. Let's take Bogdan Bogdanovic as an example.

His shooting splits were 31/20/73 at ANGT.

At U18 Eurobasket he shot 34/27/56.

Those are abysmal shooting percentages.

Even at age 21 playing for Partizan he shot 36/26/94. Those free throws were the only indication that there was potential for him to be somewhat consistent.

Jokic at age 18 shot 52/22/67

Already pointed out and I've not disagreed. I've expressed concern about the form and pointed at percentages to support that, rather than pointed at percentages to say he is a bad shooter. Given his touch in other areas of his game, I think it is quite likely he improves, but at the moment this is a weakness.

The percentages don't support that, though..since basically every 17 year old kid playing in a pro league vs grown men has had poor shooting splits. So mentioning that really doesn't add anything to your argument.

His sample that is most recent and vs players in his own age group he got 36.2% from 3 on very high volume (6.7 attempts per game) on a very difficult shot diet (many off the dribble shots, some step backs, many shots that were tightly contested..plus he was THE no. 1 option for his team so drew the opposing team's best defender, often got double teamed, etc.), plus shot a respectable 75.9% FT.

[babyjax13]

To be fair, many European players struggle with shooting percentages at a young age. Let's take Bogdan Bogdanovic as an example.

His shooting splits were 31/20/73 at ANGT.

At U18 Eurobasket he shot 34/27/56.

Those are abysmal shooting percentages.

Even at age 21 playing for Partizan he shot 36/26/94. Those free throws were the only indication that there was potential for him to be somewhat consistent.

Jokic at age 18 shot 52/22/67

Already pointed out and I've not disagreed. I've expressed concern about the form and pointed at percentages to support that, rather than pointed at percentages to say he is a bad shooter. Given his touch in other areas of his game, I think it is quite likely he improves, but at the moment this is a weakness.

The percentages don't support that, though..since basically every 17 year old kid playing in a pro league vs grown men has had poor shooting splits. So mentioning that really doesn't add anything to your argument.

It's not just in the pro league that he has been a poor to mediocre shooter, in the Adidas Nextgen tournament he shot 32 percent from 3 - see my prior post. I'm also not super impressed by 36 percent, which is just fine but obviously not amazing. You are misrepresenting my comments a bit, or missing the fact that at the youth level he also has not been a great shooter.

[Hal14]

Already pointed out and I've not disagreed. I've expressed concern about the form and pointed at percentages to support that, rather than pointed at percentages to say he is a bad shooter. Given his touch in other areas of his game, I think it is quite likely he improves, but at the moment this is a weakness.

The percentages don't support that, though..since basically every 17 year old kid playing in a pro league vs grown men has had poor shooting splits. So mentioning that really doesn't add anything to your argument.

It's not just in the pro league that he has been a poor to mediocre shooter, in the Adidas Nextgen tournament he shot 32 percent from 3 - see my prior post. I'm also not super impressed by 36 percent, which is just fine but obviously not amazing. You are misrepresenting my comments a bit, or missing the fact that at the youth level he also has not been a great shooter.

Where are you getting 32% from? Are you combining his stats from Adidas next gen tournament in 21-22 season AND 22-23 season?

In other words, a tiny 8 game sample size..where 4 of the games he was 16 years old and the other 4 games he was only 15 yrs old?

Give me a break, man.

I didn't think I would see the day that people on here would be including 4 game sample sizes when a dude was 15 yrs old as part of their argument why an NBA team shouldn't draft them.

Oh and 36% from 3 for a kid who just turned 18..on that type of volume and on that type of shot diet is absolutely impressive. You realize the average 3 pt % for college freshman over the past few years is only like 30%?

[babyjax13]

The percentages don't support that, though..since basically every 17 year old kid playing in a pro league vs grown men has had poor shooting splits. So mentioning that really doesn't add anything to your argument.

It's not just in the pro league that he has been a poor to mediocre shooter, in the Adidas Nextgen tournament he shot 32 percent from 3 - see my prior post. I'm also not super impressed by 36 percent, which is just fine but obviously not amazing. You are misrepresenting my comments a bit, or missing the fact that at the youth level he also has not been a great shooter.

Where are you getting 32% from? Are you combining his stats from Adidas next gen tournament in 21-22 season AND 22-23 season?

In other words, a tiny 8 game sample size..where 4 of the games he was 16 years old and the other 4 games he was only 15 yrs old?

Give me a break, man.

I didn't think I would see the day that people on here would be including 4 game sample sizes when a dude was 15 yrs old as part of their argument why an NBA team shouldn't draft them.

Oh and 36% from 3 for a kid who just turned 18..on that type of volume and on that type of shot diet is absolutely impressive. You realize the average 3 pt % for college freshman over the past few years is only like 30%?

By that logic, this is also a small sample size and should be ignored (7 games). (also I think I transposed his u16 and nextgen, that's my mistake)

22-23 Nextgen tournament: 29%
21-22 Nextgen tournament: 35%
2022 U16 Championship: 31%
2022 U16: 53%

His shooting stats are really noisy, he doesn't have the kind of consistency in youth competitions where you can be confident in the shooting.

RE: NCAA average shooting percentages, so? If I saw a 30% three point shooter with a form that had some moderate issues I wouldn't be automatically projecting him to be a great shooter.

ALL I AM SAYING is that I think there are some things in the form to work on and that it has not consistently resulted in good shooting percentages. I really don't understand why pointing that out is such a personal affront to you. If the eye test and stats are totally irrelevant to trying to evaluate a prospect, then we have nothing to discuss. If you think the form looks fine - that is okay, we can disagree.

[Hal14]

By that logic, this is also a small sample size and should be ignored (7 games).

7 games is a small sample size. Which is why I'm not calling him an elite shooter..

However, there's a big difference between a 7 game sample size where the games took place like 5 days ago and the kid was 18 yrs old...compared to a 4 game sample size when the kid was only 15 yrs old...that's a night and day difference.

22-23 Nextgen tournament: 29%
21-22 Nextgen tournament: 35%
2022 U16 Championship: 31%
2022 U16: 53%

His shooting stats are really noisy, he doesn't have the kind of consistency in youth competitions where you can be confident in the shooting.

These are all tiny (4-7 game) sample sizes when he was only 15 or 16 yrs old. Please stop posting stats like these - it adds basically zero value to the discussion.

Who cares what a guy shot in HS? Reed Sheppard shot like 32% from 3 during his last year of HS. HS shooting splits mean very little. Jabari Smith Jr wasn't a great shooter in HS and then boom, he goes to Auburn and was an elite shooter there. Why? Because a ton of shooting development happens after the player gets to college/after they turn 18. And it's very rare for a player to show consistently good 3 pt shooting when they're in HS or before the age of 18.

There's like 1 or 2 guys per draft class (if that) where you can look back at the numbers going back to HS and see consistently good shooting in like EYBL, AAU, last 2 or 3 years of HS and with those guys, yes you can look at them and say, "that guy is probably gonna be a really good shooter." I'm talking about guys like Gradey Dick, Jalil Bethea, AJ Griffin. That's pretty much it for recent examples. There might be a couple others but it's *very* rare for a guy to show consistently good 3 pt shooting at the HS age level.

Saraf isn't in that level of shooters as a HS age kid. So what? I never said he was an elite shooter. All we know for sure is that he's probably not 1 of the top 5 or 6 shooting prospects in the past 5 draft classes.

RE: NCAA average shooting percentages, so? If I saw a 30% three point shooter with a form that had some moderate issues I wouldn't be automatically projecting him to be a great shooter.

HUh? Again, I am not projecting anyone to be a "great" shooter.

I only brought up the 30% number for freshmen because you scoffed at Saraf shooting 36% at U18, saying that 36% is just "fine". But I'm saying that if the average freshman shoots around 30-31% from 3..and Saraf if he was going to college wouldn't have even played a single game yet as a freshman but just shot 36% from 3 on high volume, on a difficult shot diet and had a respectable FT%. I'm saying that is pretty good.

Not saying he's elite shooter. Simply saying there's reason for optimism. I wouldn't call shooting a "weakness" as you put it, and I wouldn't make such a conclusive statement like "I don't believe in the shot" as you did either.

I really don't understand why pointing that out is such a personal affront to you.

There's nothing personal. I'm just talking basketball. We can't have a disagreement? This place would be awfully boring if we all agreed about everything.

. If you think the form looks fine - that is okay, we can disagree.

I already said in this thread that I think the form looks fine and included multiple examples in video form.

Does Saraf have the smoothest shooting form ever? Does his form look like Steph, Klay, Sam Hauser or Ray Allen? No, of course not. Those guys are outliers..most guys don't have the best looking form when they're just 18 yrs old.

For an 18 yr old kid, I think Saraf's form is fine. I actually think (at least comparing lefties who are same age for a more apples to apples comparison) that Urban Kroflic's mechanics are a little bit smoother..and with a little bit quicker release than Saraf. Kroflic also shot a higher 3 FG% at U18..I would probably project Kroflic as a better shooter. But I still do think that Saraf has a chance to be a good shooter..

[arusinov]

Does Saraf have the smoothest shooting form ever? Does his form look like Steph, Klay, Sam Hauser or Ray Allen? No, of course not. Those guys are outliers..most guys don't have the best looking form when they're just 18 yrs old.

Also no one projects him as specifically "great shooter" kind of player like Steph, Klay or Ray Allen.
His absolute ceiling comparisons are Manu Ginobili or maybe SGA - great players, All Stars, very good ball handlers, distributors and scorers, good shooters... but not great shooters.

[Hal14]

Does Saraf have the smoothest shooting form ever? Does his form look like Steph, Klay, Sam Hauser or Ray Allen? No, of course not. Those guys are outliers..most guys don't have the best looking form when they're just 18 yrs old.

Also no one projects him as specifically "great shooter" kind of player like Steph, Klay or Ray Allen.
His absolute ceiling comparisons are Manu Ginobili or maybe SGA - great players, All Stars, very good ball handlers, distributors and scorers, good shooters... but not great shooters.

Agreed.

He wears no. 77 so I'm sure he looks up to Doncic. Offensively, it does look like he tries to play like him sort of. But he's much better, more active on D, so good at getting deflections and steals and being impactful on D, pressuring the opposing team into mistakes, forcing them to rush their offense which is kind of like Ginobili.

If he can be like Luka on offense and Ginobili on defense, man that's a hell of a player. Now, obviously he's not going to be *that* good. We gotta be realistic. But there is some intriguing long term upside with him, for sure.

[kobyz]

I see bigger Goran Dragic with a little SGA

[arusinov]

I see bigger Goran Dragic with a little SGA

Well. Given success of Dragic (1xMIP, 1xNBA3, 1xAS) in NBA, not speaking about SGA (already 2xAS, 2xNBA1)... calling someone "bigger Goran Dragic with a little SGA" is pretty much like predicting something like 3+ x AS

Being bigger Dragic is not bad by itself... but there's one thing here when speaking about draft perspectives. Dragic was selected 45th at age of 22 but the truth is he was kind of... "late bloomer".

When you look at his youth tournaments performances - they are underwhelming. As much as I understand he didn't play in Euro U16 or U18, and in his first Euro U20 (which Slovenia won which I remember as they played Israel in final) he scored... 2.7 ppg (so no I don't remember him from this tournament). Next year he scored ok-ish 15.3 ppg (but his team finished 10th).

On other hand Saraf is probably the most dominant scorer of Euro youth tournaments in... last 25 years? maybe ever? (sure... not counting Doncic which just didn't bother to participate in those children games) - being top scorer of Euro U16 in 2022 with 24.3 ppg (Israel finished 5th), and this year of Euro U18 with 28.1 (Israel finished 4th).

So I don't see any reason to not consider him lottery level prospect...

[BlazersBroncos]

Dove into him more - there isnt a closer prospect to Manu since Manu. I wouldnt just say lotto, I think Saraf plays his way into a Top-5 pick.

[Chi town]

Dove into him more - there isnt a closer prospect to Manu since Manu. I wouldnt just say lotto, I think Saraf plays his way into a Top-5 pick.

Think the same about Manu but not top 5. Sarah has that unicorn ability to win without dominating the ball and doing its many different ways.

Think he goes 6-10 due to all the other athletes ahead of him.

[Mavrelous]

Don't see the Manu comparison, but I do agree he looks very impressive, we'll see how he does this year in BBL.

[Pistol King]

A promising debut from Ben Saraf today in his first BBL match.

He leads Ratiopharm Ulm to a win as their lead scorer, with 21 pts, 3 steals, 3 rebs, 2 assists (though 3 TO's), 8-15 from FG (2-4 from 3) in 24 minutes.

There is an Israeli YT channel who covered his performance from closely, you can mute the Hebrew language if it annoys you and watch his extended highlights and lowlights from the game here:

Watch on YouTube

[arusinov]

Ben Saraf picked for German League starting 5 of the week

Read on Twitter

[Pistol King]

3 days after his BBL debut, here coming his EuroCup debut.

This time he struggled in the first three quarters, the opponent (Trefl Sopot) were putting on him non stop on-ball pressure and quite effectively, and he finished these quarters missing most of his shots, ending with only 4 points and 4 TOs. But he really stepped up in the fourth quarter, being a key player in Ulm's come back after a 10 points deficit a few minutes to end of regular time, putting up 13pts and 3 assists in this quarter alone, and finishing the game with 17 pts, 10 assists (6 TO's), 3 rebounds and 3 steals, in 7-17 from FG (0-3 from 3), in 35 minutes. Ulm beats Sopot in overtime.

If I'm not mistaken, this is his first ever double double since he has started playing professional basketball.

Watch on YouTube