Poke Holes in My Draft Comps!

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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#21 » by FrodoBaggins » Sun May 24, 2026 11:04 pm

tmorgan wrote:I’m all for any positive comp on Wagler, because I want to believe he’s a couple years and body improvement away from a star guard. It really can’t be Knueppel, though. The body types are way too different for that to work.

Wagler plays kinda slow, or “controlled”, like Cade, if you want to spin it more positively. But unlike Cade, and unlike Kon, he’s a twig. I think he has more ball control skills than Kon will ever likely have, and may end up better in that regard than Cade as well, but I doubt he’ll ever be as stout as those guys, which means he’s going to have to be a lot more crafty to get free.

No one should be comped to the current MVP, but if Wagler is going to hit anywhere near his top outcomes, that’s the guy he needs to steal some moves from. SGA is a one-of-one, but that doesn’t mean Wagler can’t be some kind of lesser version in the same general style.

I agree. He's going to fall somewhere on the SGA-DLo scale. The good thing is that he draws fouls more like Shai:

College FTr

Wagler: .476
SGA: .464
DLo: .303

I think that's telling and bodes well for his potential. Speaks to his basketball IQ, aggressiveness, willingness to play physically despite his current slight frame, and general style of play. Combine that with good character, work ethic, and all-around intangibles, and the ceiling is the moon. There's a lot of real estate between Gilgeous-Alexander and Russell; as you said, a lesser version of the current MVP is a damn good player.

I think he's, at worst, a better D'Angelo Russell.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#22 » by Nate the Great » Mon May 25, 2026 4:20 pm

Every college player has qualities that will remind you of NBA players, but it should never be taken as a direct indication of what player they will become. For example, Flemings (who must be sick of people misspelling his last name) reminds me in some ways of Tim Hardaway - he’s short, quick, and has a funny looking shot without much arc, but he makes the shot often enough that no one complains too much. That said, Hardaway was stronger, but shorter, and Flemings seems like a better defender. Comparisons are fun as long as you don’t take them too seriously.

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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#23 » by SeattleJazzFan » Mon May 25, 2026 8:20 pm

ecuhus1981 wrote:Dybantsa/Wiggins - taller but similar build of big SF, HUGE vertical, big usage and scoring but not elite at efficiency, concerning lack of steals, blocks and DEF Rtg compared to other elite SF prospects, similar age and draft position


Wiggins not in the same stratosphere in terms of production/efficiency as Dybantsa.

Dybantsa 25 ppg on 60% TS. That’s elite efficiency for a OAD 25 ppg guy.

Wiggins 17 ppg on 56% TS. Dybantsa is in a different league.

Also Dybantsa weighed in at 217. Wiggins was about 190 soaking wet.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#24 » by ecuhus1981 » Mon May 25, 2026 10:50 pm

SeattleJazzFan wrote:
ecuhus1981 wrote:Dybantsa/Wiggins - taller but similar build of big SF, HUGE vertical, big usage and scoring but not elite at efficiency, concerning lack of steals, blocks and DEF Rtg compared to other elite SF prospects, similar age and draft position


Wiggins not in the same stratosphere in terms of production/efficiency as Dybantsa.

Dybantsa 25 ppg on 60% TS. That’s elite efficiency for a OAD 25 ppg guy.

Wiggins 17 ppg on 56% TS. Dybantsa is in a different league.

Also Dybantsa weighed in at 217. Wiggins was about 190 soaking wet.


You are absolutely right, and thank you for responding with feedback. I don't mean to insinuate with any of my comps that they are exact replicas. Only a basis for projecting how they'll play in the NBA.

They're obviously not the same player. However, I'm stumped to find a physical and statistical profile for a 19yo freshman SF that's closer to AJ than Andrew. Can you? If so, please tell me.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#25 » by Caneman786 » Mon May 25, 2026 11:21 pm

ecuhus1981 wrote:They're obviously not the same player. However, I'm stumped to find a physical and statistical profile for a 19yo freshman SF that's closer to AJ than Andrew. Can you? If so, please tell me.


Kevin Durant has some intriguing similarities at the same small forward position when it comes to their bodily dimensions, scoring quantity, and scoring efficiency.

Durant vs. Dybantsa

18.76 years old vs. 19.41 years old age on draft day

Draft Combine measurements

6' 9.00" vs. 6' 8.50" barefoot height
7' 4.75" vs. 7' 0.25" wingspan (significant difference)
215.0 lbs. vs. 217.0 lbs. weight
9' 2.00" vs. 8' 10.00" standing reach (significant difference)

College statistics

35 vs. 35 games played
35.9 vs. 34.8 minutes played per game
25.8 vs. 25.5 points per game

58.7% vs. 60.0% true shooting percentage
+9.5% vs. +8.3% true shooting percentage relative to college basketball D1 average (proportionally, as in 58.7 / 53.6 = 1.095)

This of course leaves out a lot of other categories, such as their wingspan, standing reach, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, percentages from two-point and three-point range, and free throw attempt rates, where the two prospects are quite different.

However, at the most basic level, they were both 6' 9", 215 to 217 pound small forwards who scored 26 points per game in college at high efficiency. They also both played in the Big 12 conference.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#26 » by ecuhus1981 » Tue May 26, 2026 12:05 am

Caneman786 wrote:
ecuhus1981 wrote:They're obviously not the same player. However, I'm stumped to find a physical and statistical profile for a 19yo freshman SF that's closer to AJ than Andrew. Can you? If so, please tell me.


Kevin Durant has some intriguing similarities at the same small forward position when it comes to their bodily dimensions, scoring quantity, and scoring efficiency.

Durant vs. Dybantsa

18.76 years old vs. 19.41 years old age on draft day

Draft Combine measurements

6' 9.00" vs. 6' 8.50" barefoot height
7' 4.75" vs. 7' 0.25" wingspan (significant difference)
215.0 lbs. vs. 217.0 lbs. weight
9' 2.00" vs. 8' 10.00" standing reach (significant difference)

College statistics

35 vs. 35 games played
35.9 vs. 34.8 minutes played per game
25.8 vs. 25.5 points per game

58.7% vs. 60.0% true shooting percentage
+9.5% vs. +8.3% true shooting percentage relative to college basketball D1 average (proportionally, as in 58.7 / 53.6 = 1.095)

This of course leaves out a lot of other categories, such as their wingspan, standing reach, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, percentages from two-point and three-point range, and free throw attempt rates, where the two prospects are quite different.

However, at the most basic level, they were both 6' 9", 215 to 217 pound small forwards who scored 26 points per game in college at high efficiency. They also both played in the Big 12 conference.

Ooh, great one.

Yeah, I looking at this combo. I remember Andrew did not take measurements at the NBA combine, but his wingspan was 7' and his vert was 42" according to his own camp. As a KU fan, I think that bias overrode my judgment.

Kevin is a lofty comp, and his rebounding, steal, block and 3pt numbers blue away both of these guys. Still, it's the fairer, closer comparison. Thank you.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#27 » by NO-KG-AI » Tue May 26, 2026 7:26 am

Kevin is an absolute extreme outlier in standing reach and wingspan for a wing player, and an all time great shootee who was already an incredible shooter in college. They are similar height, but very different body type tbh. AJ is much thicker.

The number of guys that combined otherworldly height and limbs and 50/40/90 potential, and actually move well enough to play the perimeter and handle the ball is KD. Most of the guys that end up comped to him fall short by 2-3 inches in height and 4+ inches in wingspan, more or less like 2 positions of separation.

Andrew’s body proportions are more similar, but he plays much less forcefully, mostly because his athleticism doesn’t translate as well in tight areas, through contact, or combined with actual skill. He needs a long run way; and a huge launch pad. AJ can apply his explosion better, and converts speed to power much better.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#28 » by FrodoBaggins » Tue May 26, 2026 5:05 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:Kevin is an absolute extreme outlier in standing reach and wingspan for a wing player, and an all time great shootee who was already an incredible shooter in college. They are similar height, but very different body type tbh. AJ is much thicker.

The number of guys that combined otherworldly height and limbs and 50/40/90 potential, and actually move well enough to play the perimeter and handle the ball is KD. Most of the guys that end up comped to him fall short by 2-3 inches in height and 4+ inches in wingspan, more or less like 2 positions of separation.

Andrew’s body proportions are more similar, but he plays much less forcefully, mostly because his athleticism doesn’t translate as well in tight areas, through contact, or combined with actual skill. He needs a long run way; and a huge launch pad. AJ can apply his explosion better, and converts speed to power much better.

Yeah, KD is about as rare as it gets. If we're not counting Tracy McGrady (the progenitor), Ingram and Porter Jr. are the closest of the Durant acolytes, and they fall far short for one reason or another, or several. It's an archetype that presents a small margin for error. Lack the size and shooting, and that tough shot diet is brutal; lack the ball handling and fluid athleticism, and you're limited to a Peja, Rashard Lewis catch-and-shoot type of game.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#29 » by FrodoBaggins » Tue May 26, 2026 5:09 pm

I still like a bigger, more athletic DeMar DeRozan for my AJ Dybantsa comp. Some people might find that offensive, but it's just a stylistic comparison; it doesn't define a level of impact. A 6-foot-10 DeMar with a 42-inch vertical might be a guy who sleepwalks to 30+ PPG and .600+ TS% and may even reach Embiid-esque 33-35 PPG, .650 TS% production.
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Re: Poke Holes in My Draft Comps! 

Post#30 » by Telfaire » Thu Jun 11, 2026 10:19 am

Some of my current comps:

Peterson:
A mixture of prime Ben Gordon's off-ball perimeter scoring, Gilgeous-Alexander's mid-range acumen, and his cousin Nickeil's defensive upside (similar body type).

Boozer:
A mixture of Kevin Love and Antoine Walker in their primes, with Derrick Williams' level of athleticism

Wilson:
Hakim Warrick mixed with Jordan Hill, with better passing skills, perimeter D, and likely a better 3-point shot, than both.
(Yep, getting lower on him than I was)

Wagler:
James Harden with the body of Jordan...Hawkins.

Flemings:
Ty Lawson with Ramon Sessions' size.

Mikel Brown:
What if Jordan Poole had Ben McLemore's body, better PG skills, and defensive upside?

Carr:
A super long hybrid of Michael Dickerson and Kerry Kittles with modern days range

Ament:
A Super-Sized Rodney Hood who'd play like Durant if he's allowed to, and follow the Jaden McDaniels path to become a defensive weapon if he puts his mind to it.

For Yaxel, I'm considering a mixture of an early-career Robert Horry with late-career Boris Diaw.
The rest you can find here:
https://www.hoops-bg.net/

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