As a Prospect: Rose vs. Jay Williams?

[ATRAIN53]

how about dunking?

i know Williams could dunk but i don't recall him doing reverse and tomahawk stuff that i've seen Rose do - in game situations.

if Derrick can do this in the NBA i think it's what makes him an elite PG compared to a great PG.

[jman3134]

how about dunking?

i know Williams could dunk but i don't recall him doing reverse and tomahawk stuff that i've seen Rose do - in game situations.

if Derrick can do this in the NBA i think it's what makes him an elite PG compared to a great PG.

We're not discussing the potential to draw in fans. If that were the case, Vince would be placed many notches higher than he actually deserved -judging by his basketball career and not his style.

[Upperclass]

In regards to Roses speed/quickness.. im glad someone else sees what i see in that, he isn't some groundbreaking athlete.. i've heard people say he's the fastest guy to come in since iverson.. absolutley inane commentary imo..

He has elite speed, but his athleticism "package" isn't that of a monta ellis, prime baron davis, dwade, jamal crawford, lebron(just speed/quickness).. i just dont see it..

And what most people here are failing to realize(probably due to him not having a career), but jay williams, had fearsome speed, natural strength and quickness.. Rose isnt not a better athlete imo.. he jumps higher, but doesnt jump more explosively as he doesnt have the leg or body strength.. the way he attacked the hoop as a guard was similar to an amare going to the rack

And for the guys saying his first yr was average or below.. it wasnt.. it was right on par with a deron williams, gilbert arenas(though he only played 1/2 the year), baron davis and many more.. and he played in that abortion of an offense that made it tough on everyone.

He wouldve been an elite guard.

[tsherkin]

I disagree. Maybe from a numbers standpoint, but from what I watched of him, he was able to drive and kick and was a crucial part of that Bulls offense. He was able to penetrate and kick to his teammates. Sure, his numbers do not really express this, but I would say that is more due to their inability to finish than anything. He relied on his athleticism because he was a great athlete even at the NBA level. I would argue that both are similar in that respect. I just disagree on the decision making portion. I think it has more to do with his presence on a bottom feeder team.

I don't disagree that Rose relies heavily on his athleticism, I think they are identical in that regard. Jay Williams, but for a handful of games, looked pretty bad to me on Chicago.

Some of that might have been trying to fit a slashing undersized guard into the triangle offense, so that's on Cartwright and not on Jay himself. Some of it was that he was rookie.

I think that covers a lot of the damage, actually, my point was that in the NBA, Jay was never consistent enough. I mean, you can put aside his murderous lack of efficiency for a variety of reasons, several of which have already been mentioned (dumb coach, bad system, rookie, weak roster), but I watched a fair bit of Chicago ball that year and was completely unimpressed with his performance. Again, it is almost 100% likely that he would have evidenced starting-caliber performance given more time and an improved situation...

But the thrust of the matter is this: I do not give to Jay Williams an advantage as a passer or as a decision-maker because I think he benefited from a more conventional offense.

Lacking that advantage, the only appreciable differences between the two ARE the physical traits which favor Rose.

I don't think that Rose possesses this same feel for the game. I see him as a more Wade-esque slasher who simply employs his physicality to dominate his opponents. I view Jay as the more skilled prospect.

And I disagree, my belief being that you are overly influenced by the role Rose played in Calipari's offense and that it is leading you to typecast him with no real grounds to do so.

But, why is that? I think Calipari, more than most, adapts his system to the talents of his personnel. So, if he utilized Rose as an initial penetrator, I feel that this is because of Rose's talent in that respect. The year before, I do not think that Andre Allen would simply drive and kick all game long. He was more of a spot up shooter. As I recall, he worked the ball around the perimeter a bit more.

I'm inclined to disagree that Calipari adapted to his personnel. Mind that his team had a couple of Elite Eights in the previous year and that the personnel hadn't turned over so radically as to change his thought process. Remember, Calipari's big thing was influence from Vance Wahlberg, rather than the addition of Rose.

It's against convention because it replicates the NBA system that is in place. This is the selling point to recruits imo. Sure, he's not in the same kind of scenario, but I think that Calipari molds his system to his player's strengths. The guy is a former NBA coach, and I think he brings that sort of swagger to the college bench.

And while that's somewhat true, it's not a traditional Princeton offense because it doesn't use a lot of what you see out of Adelman's teams. There aren't a great many elbow pick-and-rolls or hand-off plays. You see backdoor clear-outs and such but the primary mode of attack is a cyclical penetration that is different from what the guards in Cow Town or Houston worked.

Remember, while the ACTUAL Princeton offense makes heavy use of screeners and post-up guys, Calipari has explicitly stated he has no use for such players; it's a variant of Wahlberg's system, which is a hopped-up speed variant of the Princeton. It's not actually replicating the Princeton offense so much as building on the concepts therein.

Remember, the basic motion offense is built on screens; the Princeton offense is built on cuts (that is, Pete Carrill's original Princeton offense and the variant run by Adelman). The AASAA offense is built off of dribble-penetration. More to the point, Wahlberg and Calipari are both excessively critical of mid-range jumpers, a staple part of the Princeton offense. "We like three-pointers but we love layups" and all that jazz.

He was learning an offense that catered to his and CDR's strengths. So, I wouldn't say that his adjusting to that system was the kicker; more likely, imo, was his adjustment to the competition and the fact that he was met with a defense at the rim after he got past his initial man. I don't think he really experienced that in high school. This is why he often threw up wild shots. He could get away with this in high school because he was not met with the same opposition. Throughout the course of the season, he adjusted to the aforementioned level of competition, and his explosiveness thrived.

Adjusting to the offense still occurred because it was new and out of convention for him... but the importance is on emphasizing that there were adjustments to be made, so rankling about his performance in the first half is kind of pointless. Williams was no better as a freshman, worse IIRC.

His first step may have been at the level of Jay Williams's. But, his overall speed was not comparatively as great imo. I'm not saying that it was negligible.

And I'm saying that they are comparable athletes, that there isn't an appreciable difference between the two in end-to-end speed or first-step. Jay may have been a little quicker laterally but that bears little relevance to the point. Athletically, Williams did not possess a significant advantage over Rose even despite the size difference.

You have to get to the playoffs first though. I do not feel that his level of play in the regular season was even close to that of Jay Williams. Consistency should be valued when gauging a prospect imo.

But this is ridiculous reasoning... as a rookie, he learned and struggled and still played well enough to get his team to the "playoffs," where he performed like a pro.

You're gauging Jay Williams after three years of college versus Rose after one, and ignoring the meaning of that disparity. Yes, Jay was more polished hitting the NBA but:

a) It didn't do him any good
b) Rose is younger and has plenty of time to learn
c) His physical advantage will make his transition easier because he can still exert a physical advantage over the bulk of the competition he will face and that's even if he's slower than usual... and he's got elite quickness and speed

AND

d) He can play the 2 in the NBA in spot minutes to help ease the transition because he was 6'3.5" in shoes last year

I mean, as a prospect, you have to value Rose more highly because Williams' development is more a product of time spent, whereas Rose is nearly as valuable right from the start as a polished Jay Williams and has more versatility about him because of his size. Williams was never going to Chauncey Billups out on people and abuse them in the post but Rose can because he's huge for the point.

[GswStorm3]

I was a big Jay Williams fan at Duke and he had the total package. He was an outstanding outside shooter, great athleticism and a solid passer. If it never was for the motorcycle accident I think Jay Williams would've been a star.

Until Rose improves the outside shot, Jay Williams was the better prospect. I think Derrick Rose will be more athletic Andre Miller.

[jman3134]

I don't disagree that Rose relies heavily on his athleticism, I think they are identical in that regard. Jay Williams, but for a handful of games, looked pretty bad to me on Chicago.

Some of that might have been trying to fit a slashing undersized guard into the triangle offense, so that's on Cartwright and not on Jay himself. Some of it was that he was rookie.

I think that covers a lot of the damage, actually, my point was that in the NBA, Jay was never consistent enough. I mean, you can put aside his murderous lack of efficiency for a variety of reasons, several of which have already been mentioned (dumb coach, bad system, rookie, weak roster), but I watched a fair bit of Chicago ball that year and was completely unimpressed with his performance. Again, it is almost 100% likely that he would have evidenced starting-caliber performance given more time and an improved situation...

But the thrust of the matter is this: I do not give to Jay Williams an advantage as a passer or as a decision-maker because I think he benefited from a more conventional offense.

Lacking that advantage, the only appreciable differences between the two ARE the physical traits which favor Rose.

Ok, but you have the advantage of looking at Jay Williams, who is in a terrible situation in the NBA. That is another reason why the comparison is unfair. Rose has yet to play one game- so we have yet to gauge his decision making, which was shakey the entire college season.

I give him an advantage in decision making because when he had the weapons, he utilized them moreso than Rose did. I think you are seriously jumping the gun by simply relying on that one portion of the season and disregarding his poor decision making earlier in the year. Jay was always a pretty consistent player. And, if you look at the adjustments, it was more difficult to adjust to Coach K's point guard oriented system than it was for Rose in Coach Cal's offense.

And I disagree, my belief being that you are overly influenced by the role Rose played in Calipari's offense and that it is leading you to typecast him with no real grounds to do so.

It is my belief that you are overly influenced by his physical gifts and the one portion of the season where he really performed well. So, you believe that it is easier to accumulate assists or make flashy passes in a motion offense? I actually think that Calipari's system actually made it easier for Rose to demonstrate his passing ability. How? Well because it allows for transition offense and three on one or three on two breaks, which Memphis capitalized on throughout the season. There is no easier way to receive an assist than when you are a lightning fast point guard on the break. Sure, he may have needed some adjustment period for Calipari's odd system. I'm not disagreeing. But, in the end it played into his strengths- Calipari recruits lightning fast athletes for his system and molds it around them. Thus, while he may have had an adjustment period which contributed to his lack of control early on in the season, his passing ability may have also been exaggerated because his Cal's system plays on Rose's blazing speed. So his lows may not have been so low and his highs may have no been so high. But, when I find a healthy medium, I still do not think he is comparable to Jay Williams.

And while that's somewhat true, it's not a traditional Princeton offense because it doesn't use a lot of what you see out of Adelman's teams. There aren't a great many elbow pick-and-rolls or hand-off plays. You see backdoor clear-outs and such but the primary mode of attack is a cyclical penetration that is different from what the guards in Cow Town or Houston worked.

Remember, while the ACTUAL Princeton offense makes heavy use of screeners and post-up guys, Calipari has explicitly stated he has no use for such players; it's a variant of Wahlberg's system, which is a hopped-up speed variant of the Princeton. It's not actually replicating the Princeton offense so much as building on the concepts therein.

Remember, the basic motion offense is built on screens; the Princeton offense is built on cuts (that is, Pete Carrill's original Princeton offense and the variant run by Adelman). The AASAA offense is built off of dribble-penetration. More to the point, Wahlberg and Calipari are both excessively critical of mid-range jumpers, a staple part of the Princeton offense. "We like three-pointers but we love layups" and all that jazz.

It's generally easier to demonstrate one's passing ability in such a system because it relies on your sheer speed beating the defender. Look at Chris Paul and how he collects the vast majority of his assists. He has an excellent knack for finding his teammates, and this is accentuated by his penchant for slashing to the hoop and throwing alley oops. Sure, Coach K's motion relies heavily on post feeds, but this is not inherently conducive to Jay Williams's strengths because he was never a great spot up shooter. (on the repost option kick out) I recognize that there are often ball screens which allows him to turn the corner on his defender, but I believe Jay would have been able to do the same thing without the screen. That's how fast he was.

And while that's somewhat true, it's not a traditional Princeton offense because it doesn't use a lot of what you see out of Adelman's teams. There aren't a great many elbow pick-and-rolls or hand-off plays. You see backdoor clear-outs and such but the primary mode of attack is a cyclical penetration that is different from what the guards in Cow Town or Houston worked.

Remember, while the ACTUAL Princeton offense makes heavy use of screeners and post-up guys, Calipari has explicitly stated he has no use for such players; it's a variant of Wahlberg's system, which is a hopped-up speed variant of the Princeton. It's not actually replicating the Princeton offense so much as building on the concepts therein.

Remember, the basic motion offense is built on screens; the Princeton offense is built on cuts (that is, Pete Carrill's original Princeton offense and the variant run by Adelman). The AASAA offense is built off of dribble-penetration. More to the point, Wahlberg and Calipari are both excessively critical of mid-range jumpers, a staple part of the Princeton offense. "We like three-pointers but we love layups" and all that jazz.

And while this is true, Rose was given a great deal of freedom in Cal's offense. Throughout the season he took many midrange jump shots, sometimes forcing it, to Cal's distaste. But, that, in my opinion, is not the reason why Rose has been unable to hit pull up jumpers. I mean Cal allowed midrange jumpers with Dajuan Wagner, who also was an excellent slasher. He wasn't entirely relegated to the three point line, although he hit his fair share. I just feel that Cal's offense is tailor made for a player with Rose's gifts, so the adjustment should not have been as difficult as you are making it out to be.

[Blame Rasho]

I was a big Jay Williams fan at Duke and he had the total package. He was an outstanding outside shooter, great athleticism and a solid passer. If it never was for the motorcycle accident I think Jay Williams would've been a star.

Until Rose improves the outside shot, Jay Williams was the better prospect. I think Derrick Rose will be more athletic Andre Miller.

He left alot to be desired in his one year in the NBA when he was considered without question the best college basketball player in 01 and 02.

[tsherkin]

Ok, but you have the advantage of looking at Jay Williams, who is in a terrible situation in the NBA. That is another reason why the comparison is unfair. Rose has yet to play one game- so we have yet to gauge his decision making, which was shakey the entire college season.

Yeah but again, you're emphasizing shaky decision-making in a player who was playing at a new level of competition for the first time and comparing that against a 3-year college vet, which is absurd. He made it to the championship game and was poised enough not to be a detriment, to be instead a major contributor during the run to the final game, which largely overturns your commentary especially in light of his inexperience.

I give him an advantage in decision making because when he had the weapons, he utilized them moreso than Rose did. I think you are seriously jumping the gun by simply relying on that one portion of the season and disregarding his poor decision making earlier in the year. Jay was always a pretty consistent player. And, if you look at the adjustments, it was more difficult to adjust to Coach K's point guard oriented system than it was for Rose in Coach Cal's offense.

I think it's patently absurd that you are denouncing Rose on the basis of the other half of the season I'm describing, though, for very much the same reason; you're looking at only one half and condemning him whilst ignoring his improvement.

It is my belief that you are overly influenced by his physical gifts and the one portion of the season where he really performed well.

And you're missing my point; I'm not saying Rose WILL be a better player, I'm saying he's the better prospect because I don't believe there is an appreciable skill difference between the two and there IS a physical advantage in Rose's favor... and because your major argument in Jay's favor is the product of triple the experience at the college level.

So, you believe that it is easier to accumulate assists or make flashy passes in a motion offense? I actually think that Calipari's system actually made it easier for Rose to demonstrate his passing ability. How? Well because it allows for transition offense and three on one or three on two breaks, which Memphis capitalized on throughout the season. There is no easier way to receive an assist than when you are a lightning fast point guard on the break. Sure, he may have needed some adjustment period for Calipari's odd system. I'm not disagreeing. But, in the end it played into his strengths- Calipari recruits lightning fast athletes for his system and molds it around them. Thus, while he may have had an adjustment period which contributed to his lack of control early on in the season, his passing ability may have also been exaggerated because his Cal's system plays on Rose's blazing speed. So his lows may not have been so low and his highs may have no been so high. But, when I find a healthy medium, I still do not think he is comparable to Jay Williams.

Yeah, most of Rose's assists came on the break... and almost none in the halfcourt because his kick-out from the dribble-drive was to a cycle penetrator, not a shooter. He was resetting the offense, not pitching to camped snipers. His bigs were moving to create lanes for the guards more often than they were moving to present passing threats, though they tried to do both, of course. The point is that his opening penetration was designed to shift the defense such that if he didn't get a good lane, the guy after him probably would. Calipari's system REPRESSES assist volume, just like Adelman's Princeton system, at least in the point guard.

Adelman's Princeton system took the ball out of the guards' hands and put it in the PFs and Cs. The motion offense at UCLA put it in the hands of the centers as well. Motion and Princeton offense systems are conducive to assists, just not high-volume assist production from your point guard, this is just a structural truth about the system as we have seen it for the last 4 or 5 decades, or thereabouts.

It's generally easier to demonstrate one's passing ability in such a system because it relies on your sheer speed beating the defender. Look at Chris Paul and how he collects the vast majority of his assists. He has an excellent knack for finding his teammates, and this is accentuated by his penchant for slashing to the hoop and throwing alley oops. Sure, Coach K's motion relies heavily on post feeds, but this is not inherently conducive to Jay Williams's strengths because he was never a great spot up shooter. (on the repost option kick out) I recognize that there are often ball screens which allows him to turn the corner on his defender, but I believe Jay would have been able to do the same thing without the screen. That's how fast he was.

Yeah, Jay was a special athlete but remember he played with Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, Duhon and Dahntay Jones. That's a LOT of talent.

Yeah, Rose had talent as well, but Coach K's system did not ignore the shooters and the Blue Devils were CONSIDERABLY better at shooting from the outside than was Memphis this year. In fact, the lack of a nasty 3ball sniper was a big missing piece in the AASAA offense. For example, Duke in it's title year had 3 guys over 37% from downtown; Memphis had one and CDR took less than 3 a game.

And don't forget, the pick-and-roll with Boozer is basically an example of the big-volume assist play that made John Stockton and continues to be effective for Chris Paul/David West and Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer.

If you've got a big man who can stick an outside shot and roll hard to the hoop, you've got the makings of a core play. Yes, the Blue Devils ran a lot of motion stuff, zone offense principles and whatever, but he was on the ball more than Rose in situations other than in transition... and transition opportunities often lead to passing opportunities for guys other than the break spark. Memphis passed a LOT and very quickly, which means that Rose had a lot of hockey assists.

And while this is true, Rose was given a great deal of freedom in Cal's offense. Throughout the season he took many midrange jump shots, sometimes forcing it, to Cal's distaste. But, that, in my opinion, is not the reason why Rose has been unable to hit pull up jumpers. I mean Cal allowed midrange jumpers with Dajuan Wagner, who also was an excellent slasher. He wasn't entirely relegated to the three point line, although he hit his fair share. I just feel that Cal's offense is tailor made for a player with Rose's gifts, so the adjustment should not have been as difficult as you are making it out to be.

And I suggest that while I agree the offense was tailor-made for him, he still had to adjust to the principles Calipari was teaching, to the level of the competition, to everything about the NCAA. Adjusting to new teammates, to not being completely unguardable as he was in HS, all that. It's a pretty radical shift even for the most elite prospects, which makes their success all the more special.

That Rose was forcing it is an example of adjustment, contrary to your statement. That he was not doing what Calipari said is a CLEAR indicator that he was struggling to adapt to the principles of the offense even as Calipari was using kid gloves.

[dre_1614]

Who here said Jay Williams is as athletic as Derrick Rose?

you on drugs?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=w6G_RRGHzfA

[dre_1614]

In regards to Roses speed/quickness.. im glad someone else sees what i see in that, he isn't some groundbreaking athlete.. i've heard people say he's the fastest guy to come in since iverson.. absolutley inane commentary imo..

He has elite speed, but his athleticism "package" isn't that of a monta ellis, prime baron davis, dwade, jamal crawford, lebron(just speed/quickness).. i just dont see it..

And what most people here are failing to realize(probably due to him not having a career), but jay williams, had fearsome speed, natural strength and quickness.. Rose isnt not a better athlete imo.. he jumps higher, but doesnt jump more explosively as he doesnt have the leg or body strength.. the way he attacked the hoop as a guard was similar to an amare going to the rack

And for the guys saying his first yr was average or below.. it wasnt.. it was right on par with a deron williams, gilbert arenas(though he only played 1/2 the year), baron davis and many more.. and he played in that abortion of an offense that made it tough on everyone.

He wouldve been an elite guard.

have you seen DRose play? he has elite speed and quickness, to go along with great leaping ability, and body control, the whole package................here watch these tapes and tell me he isn't an "elite" athlete

http://youtube.com/watch?v=w6G_RRGHzfA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=OtZd2koUMrk
http://youtube.com/watch?v=pLsaXkMs9XE
http://youtube.com/watch?v=yi9qfKchreE
http://youtube.com/watch?v=4Lidn86nuhg&feature=user

[Blame Rasho]

Who here said Jay Williams is as athletic as Derrick Rose? you on drugs? http://youtube.com/watch?v=w6G_RRGHzfA

I don't know how old you are but Jay Williams was no slouch, he was just as athletic if not a hair below Kevin Johnson.

[dre_1614]

-= original quote snipped =-



I don't know how old you are but Jay Williams was no slouch, he was just as athletic if not a hair below Kevin Johnson.

of course Jay Williams was no slouch, but as athletic as Derrick Rose? please........

[A.J.]

Rose

[Upperclass]

-= original quote snipped =-



have you seen DRose play? he has elite speed and quickness, to go along with great leaping ability, and body control, the whole package................here watch these tapes and tell me he isn't an "elite" athlete

http://youtube.com/watch?v=w6G_RRGHzfA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=OtZd2koUMrk
http://youtube.com/watch?v=pLsaXkMs9XE
http://youtube.com/watch?v=yi9qfKchreE
http://youtube.com/watch?v=4Lidn86nuhg&feature=user

Are you 12? more to athleticism than athletic layups on high schoolers and opencourt dunks

[dre_1614]

-= original quote snipped =-



Are you 12? more to athleticism than athletic layups on high schoolers and opencourt dunks

sigh, if you are going to insult people you might as well know what you are talking about. 2 of those videos are from this past year at Memphis.

[Upperclass]

Youtube highlights wont sway my position..watched him plenty against worthy- similarly athletic comp.. i still see alot of antonio daniels in this dude..guess we'll wait n' see

[ph1sh55]

Wow I feel sorry for Jay Williams -he got to the NBA only to have to feed the ball to Eddy Curry. I don't know what's worse; that, or the motorcycle accident.

[ak06ma]

Rose = Daniels.

[wolffy]

Youtube highlights wont sway my position..watched him plenty against worthy- similarly athletic comp.. i still see alot of antonio daniels in this dude..guess we'll wait n' see

Thats actually a pretty good comparison. Rose is a more athletic Daniels.

[UrbanLegendMD]

People are **** forgetting what kind of a beast Jay Williams was. When Duke lost to Indiana, I was celebrating cause I knew Terps wouldn't have to go through him to win the title.